行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（1月30日）大幅收跌，开盘价5182.79美元/盎司，最高价5450.97美元/盎司，最低价4942.80美元/ 盎司，收盘价5050.55美元/盎司。 消息面： 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压，沃什有望获民主 党人支持，并预期其将推动降息。 白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得确认。 美联储博斯蒂克：美联储现在无需降息，我们应该在利率问题上更加耐心；沃勒：当前利率区间为 3.50%-3.75%，而中性利率可能在3%左右；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息并不可取，当前政策已属中性，经济无需刺 激。 美国众议院议长约翰逊周日在接受NBC新闻《与媒体见面》节目采访时表示，他认为自己已经获得了共和党的 支持票，能够确保在周二之前结束部分政府机构的停摆状态。"我相信我们至少能在周二之前完成这项工作。 我们面临的一个实际问题是如何将所有人召集到镇上。"他说道。此前一场暴风雪影响了美国东南部的交通， 导致交通问题持续存在。 地缘局势： 当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国正在与古巴进行对话，并称"我认为我们将与古巴达成一项协 议"。特 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell by 4.75% to 103,190 yuan, while London copper dropped to around 13,050 USD [4][17] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish due to Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which has reduced interest rate cut expectations and led to a broader decline in the non-ferrous sector [5][17] - Global copper inventory increased to 1.031 million tons, with domestic copper slightly decreasing by 0.16 thousand tons to 332 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory rose by about 0.45 thousand tons to 175 thousand tons [5][17] - Despite short-term pressure on copper prices from market risk sentiment adjustments, strong supply constraints may limit further price declines, with a reference range for today's main copper futures set at 100,000 to 104,500 yuan per ton [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair has led to tightening liquidity expectations, causing the non-ferrous sector to give back gains [6][18] - Nickel ore shipments from the Philippines are hindered by weather conditions, while supply from Indonesian nickel laterite is also tight due to rainfall [6][18] - The market for nickel iron is showing average transaction performance, and stainless steel faces oversupply pressure with limited terminal demand [6][18] - The operational strategy suggests light short positions in nickel and stainless steel, with reference ranges for nickel at 130,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 13,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [6][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The alumina market showed a strong performance last week, with the May contract experiencing a reduction in positions [20][21] - A strike at a Chinese-funded mine in Guinea, which produces 15 million tons annually, has raised concerns about ore supply, although negotiations are ongoing [20][21] - The price of long-term contracts for ore has been reduced to 62 USD per ton, and domestic alumina production costs are expected to decrease significantly starting in March [20][21] - The operational strategy remains focused on short positions due to ongoing oversupply pressures in the alumina market, with reference ranges for the May contract set at 2,550 to 2,900 yuan per ton [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weakness last Friday, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which is perceived as hawkish [23][24] - The processing fee for zinc is expected to see a slight increase in February, while supply is projected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [23][24] - Zinc ingot inventories have been declining for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to reduced supply and slow arrivals [23][24] - The operational strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for zinc, with the main contract expected to trade within a range of 24,800 to 26,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on including recycled lead as a deliverable commodity, which may reduce delivery disruptions in the future [24] - The supply of primary lead remains tight, although some previously shut-down smelters are resuming operations, leading to a relatively loose spot supply [24] - The lead market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the main contract projected to operate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with silver dropping over 20%, attributed to crowded long positions and panic selling triggered by Waller's nomination [27] - The market had seen four consecutive weeks of gains prior to the pullback, leading to a high concentration of long positions that were vulnerable to correction [27] - The operational strategy suggests reducing long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [27] - Reference ranges for gold are set at 1,000 to 1,100 yuan per gram, silver at 19,000 to 25,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 520 to 570 yuan per gram, and palladium at 395 to 440 yuan per gram [27]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to have significant impacts on various financial aspects, including exchange rates, gold investments, and A-share market performance, driven by a reallocation of global dollar liquidity [1][3]. Exchange Rate - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to weaken the dollar, resulting in an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. This change will affect cross-border consumers, reducing costs for overseas shopping, travel, and education [4]. - Import-oriented industries, such as steel and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from lower procurement costs, enhancing profit margins and stabilizing employment and income expectations. However, export-oriented sectors must balance the impact of a weaker dollar on overseas purchasing power with potential increases in import demand due to a stimulated U.S. economy [4]. Gold - The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on gold prices exhibits a "scenario-based characteristic." In the short term, any rate cut is expected to boost gold prices due to increased liquidity, with historical data indicating an average price increase of 3%-5% within 1-3 months post-rate cut [5]. - Long-term trends differ based on the type of rate cut: preemptive cuts may lead to a gradual decline in gold prices as economic expectations improve, while recessionary cuts could sustain upward pressure on gold prices due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets [5]. A-shares - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will influence A-shares through both liquidity and risk appetite channels. As global funds flow out, A-shares may attract foreign investment, providing liquidity support to the market [6]. - The performance of different sectors will vary based on the type of rate cut: preemptive cuts will favor technology, food and beverage, and healthcare sectors, while recessionary cuts will benefit defensive sectors such as banking and chemicals [6].

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储最新公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%。展望后市，机构认为，2026年美联储仍有 较大概率进行降息。从资产配置角度来看，美元将持续承压，全球资本或将加速流向非美市场。与此同 时，黄金、大宗商品及亚太权益资产被普遍看好，而部分非美货币也成为机构关注重点。 "尽管过去13个月金价涨幅超过90%，我们认为黄金仍具吸引力。实际收益率下行和宏观不确定性将继 续支撑黄金需求。对于偏好黄金的投资者，在多元化投资组合中配置个位数比例的黄金是合理选 择。"瑞银财富管理称。 在2026年1月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，美联储决定将政策利率区间维持在3.5%至3.75%， 符合市场预期。这是自2025年下半年连续3次降息后，美联储首次暂停宽松步伐。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 摩根资产管理表示，市场预期美联储年内至少有一次降息，预计到今年底，美国的经济增长率和通胀率 可能降至2%以下，从而为2027年进一步实施宽松政策创造机会。 在宏利基金看来，2026年或将是全球宏观财政货币共振宽松的年份。后续，随着美联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current dynamics in the gold market, where international gold prices have experienced a temporary pullback while domestic prices remain strong, indicating a robust demand for gold amid heightened market uncertainty [1][2]. - As of January 29, 2026, the international gold price fell to $5232.5 per ounce, while the domestic benchmark price in China was reported at 1175.5 yuan per gram, reflecting a slight decline [2]. - The retail prices for gold jewelry from major brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have surpassed 1600 yuan per gram, indicating significant brand premiums in the consumer market [2]. Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a notable "V-shaped" rebound in major trading contracts, with AuT D (gold deferred) closing at 1176.62 yuan per gram, up 3.31%, and AgT D (silver deferred) surging to 29430 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a broader bullish trend in precious metals [3]. - The 2026 edition of the Panda gold set is priced at 72051 yuan per set, with individual gold coins priced from 1634 yuan to 480000 yuan depending on weight, showcasing the investment and collectible value of these products [5][6]. Group 3 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lowers the cost of holding gold and increases market liquidity [4][8]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the consistent increase in gold reserves by central banks, including a notable increase in Poland's gold purchases, further support the long-term bullish outlook for gold [8]. Group 4 - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Jefferies have set target prices for gold at $5400 and $6600 respectively, while HSBC anticipates a pattern of price peaks in the first half of 2026 followed by fluctuations in the latter half [9]. - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when allocating assets, with recommendations ranging from structured deposits linked to gold for low-risk investors to physical gold bars or ETFs for medium-risk profiles [9].

国际伦敦金现在2026年2月1日的交易数据具体如下：开盘价为4820美元每盎司，最高触及4880美元，最低下探4750美元，最终收盘于4765美元，跌幅达 9.2%。 国内黄金T D合约开盘1100元每克，最高1105元，最低1088元，收盘1090元，日内波动幅度有限。 沪金主连合约表现类似，收盘报1092元每克。 金 店零售价格方面，周大福、老凤祥等品牌在2月1日上午标价1625元每克，下午随国际金价下调至1455元每克，调整幅度超过10%。 整体市场呈现高位震荡 后的急跌态势，波动主要源于获利盘兑现和货币政策预期的博弈。 历史上，金价大幅上行行情需要三大驱动因素共振。 1970年代，布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，黄金从官方定价35美元每盎司飙升至1980年的850美元以上，涨幅 超过20倍。 2008年金融危机后，美联储实施量化宽松，金价从700美元左右涨至2011年的1900美元以上。 这些时期都伴随着美联储降息、全球央行购金或地 缘风险升级。 2026年初的市场环境，正在部分重现这些条件。 美元信用面临结构性挑战，类似于1971年的情况。 美国联邦债务规模在2026年初已突破38万亿美元，债务占GDP比例超 ...

1． 放风印度将进口委石油——特朗普：印度将从委内瑞拉而非伊朗进口石油。他还声称，美国和印度 敲定了相关协议，至少在原则层面上已经谈妥。 2． 认为最终将就格陵兰岛达成协议——特朗普：关于格陵兰岛的谈判已经启动。认为谈判基本达成了 一致，并最终会达成协议。他强调，从国家安全的角度来看，这是一项"非常重要"的协议。 3． 尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额——特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。委内 瑞拉领导人"做得很好"，"我们将出售大量的石油，我们会从中获得一部分收益，他们也会获得很大一 部分。 4． 称正与伊朗进行对话——特朗普称正与伊朗进行对话，我们会看看我们是否能做点什么，否则我们 拭目以待。希望伊朗能谈判达成一项可接受的协议。 5． 相信将与古巴达成协议——特朗普：相信美国将与古巴达成协议。此前其威胁对任何向古巴供油的 国家加征关税。他还表示，目前的处境对古巴非常不利。他们没有资金，没有石油。过去他们依赖委内 瑞拉的资金和石油，而现在这些援助都断绝了。 6． 预计沃什将推动降息——特朗普：认为美联储主席提名人沃什有望获民主党人支持。若提名获得确 认，预期沃什将会降息，依据是沃什在采访及其他场 ...

美国就业市场继续不温不火。美国劳工部数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数20.9万人，预期20.5万 人，前值由20万人修正为21万人。持续申请失业救济金人数降至185万人，环比减少3.8万人。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，年末贸易、运 输和仓储成本高企，使得去年12月生产者价格通胀率同比维持在3%的高位。如果贸易政策趋稳，加之 提前备货行为结束，或有助于2026年运输和仓储成本下降，关税对物价的传导效应在逐步释放，但整体 物价或仍高于2%的美联储设定目标。 科技股能否卷土重来。 美股本周尾盘走低，不过三大股指仍以亮眼表现收官1月。下周市场将迎来月度就业报告，外界对货币 政策预期可能对风险偏好产生影响，同时还有谷歌、亚马逊、AMD等多家企业发布核心财报，或将继 续引发指数盘中剧烈波动，各板块走势分化格局下，波动性风险并未完全释放。 通胀压力打击降息前景 本周美国有大量经济数据出炉，同时降息前景依然并不明朗。 美国商务部周五称，12月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.5%，高于前值0.2%的涨幅，同比涨幅达 3.0%，高于市场预期的2.7%。剔除食品和 ...

美国就业指标能否改善 受特朗普言论影响，美元指数本周一度跌至四年低点，随后有所反弹，市场注意力现已转向美国核心就业数据。1月美国非农就业人口月度数据将于周五发 布，该数据将为判断劳动力市场健康状况及货币政策后续走向提供关键线索。美联储此前在连续三次降息后宣布维持利率不变，并称劳动力市场正开始企 稳。若数据表现疲软，则可能再度引发市场对降息的猜测。 荷兰国际集团ING经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利在报告中表示："市场仍对就业市场的走势持谨慎态度，并未受美联储偏乐观表态的影响，目前仍在定价今年两次 25个基点的降息预期。" 下周谷歌、亚马逊将发布业绩；多家央行将公布利率决议；贵金属市场能否企稳。 本周国际市场风云变幻，美联储按兵不动，美国总统特朗普提名下任美联储主席人选。美股涨跌互现，道指周跌0.42%，纳指周跌0.21%，标普500指数周涨 0.34%。欧洲三大股指分化。英国富时100指数涨0.79%，德国DAX 30指数跌1.45%，法国CAC 40指数跌0.20%。 下周看点颇多，投资者正评估美联储下一次降息的可能时点，美国就业数据重回市场焦点。经历了周五的跳水后，贵金属期货能否企稳同样受到关注。欧洲 央行、英国央 ...