宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美关税预期升温，COMEX 铜大涨或 带动沪铜 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 观点参考 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view for IH2509 is to fluctuate, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is to fluctuate strongly. The overall view is to fluctuate strongly, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - The intraday and reference views for IF, IH, IC, and IM are to fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is upward. The recent market risk preference is positive, and the stock index will operate with a strong fluctuation in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: fluctuate; medium - term: rise; intraday: fluctuate strongly; overall view: fluctuate strongly. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is to fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is upward, with a reference view of strong fluctuation [4]. - The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded comprehensively yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 1474.6 billion yuan, an increase of 247.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The photovoltaic sector benefited from the "anti - involution" policy and had a significant increase. Trump extended the suspension period of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1st, easing market concerns. The current domestic inflation is weak, and the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient. The external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors, so favorable policies are needed. The main logic of the stock index rebound is to wait for the implementation of policies from the Politburo meeting in July [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, highlighting the uncertainty and unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies [1] - The U.S. proposed a draft agreement to the EU, offering limited tariff exemptions only for specific sectors like aircraft and spirits, while not addressing key EU concerns in automotive, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The EU is facing strategic confusion due to the chaotic timeline and the unpredictability of U.S. policies, complicating their negotiation strategy [1] Group 2 - Internal divisions within the EU are exacerbating the situation, with countries like France and Spain opposing concessions to the U.S., while export-dependent nations like Germany and Italy favor a quicker agreement [2] - EU diplomats are concerned about the lack of guarantees from the U.S. against future policy reversals, raising questions about whether the EU should rush to compromise to avoid punitive tariffs [2] - The EU is grappling with the dilemma of whether a hasty agreement at the cost of concessions is preferable to holding out for a mutually acceptable deal [2]

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间 内将要发送的信函， 关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等 关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 图/新华社 特朗普称将上调铜关税至5 0% 据新华社报道，特朗普8日在白宫召开内阁会议时说： "我认为我们将把铜的关税提高到50%"。受此消息影响， Comex铜期货合约一度暴涨 17%，盘中触及5.8955美元/磅的历史新高，最终收于5.6855美元/磅。 特朗普称，对俄罗斯总统普京"不满意"，并表示他正在认真考虑对俄罗斯的制裁。他还表示，已经批准美国向乌克兰运送一些防御性武器。 据新华社援引美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克说，商务部已完成对铜进口状况的调查，他预计新关 税"可能在7月底 ...

7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7 日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函， 关税将于2025年8月1日开始实 施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9 日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。 ...

【环球时报特约记者 任重 环球时报记者 杨舒宇 倪浩】7月9日美国"对等关税"政策暂缓期到期在即，美国总统特朗普再度突然调整该政策方向。 当地时间7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。消息一出，美股市场周一低开低收，三大 指数均录得6月中旬以来最差单日表现。 关税生效期再延 "关税威胁造成的不确定性似乎正在减缓投资和招聘"。《纽约时报》称，自特朗普去年11月宣布当选以来，美国工厂建设支出有所下降，从业人 员数量也大幅下降。贸易专家告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，"关税威胁以及这种不确定性使得资金处于观望状态。如果你连一周后的成本都无法预估， 又怎能规划未来的一年呢？这些都造成了不确定性，阻碍投资和经济整体增长。" 同时，越来越多的外资倾向于"逃逸"出美国。7日，德勤的一项新调查显示，只有2%的英国大型企业首席财务官仍然认为美国具有投资吸引力， 较2024年底特朗普上任前的59%大幅下降。官方数据也显示，美国第二季度外商直接投资大降5.2%。 还有越来越多的证据表明，美国通胀压力恐进一步加剧。高盛集团的一份报告预计，企业将把60%的关税成本转嫁给消费者。经济信心也开始下 ...

美国总统特朗普宣布下月开征新的对等关税次日，美国财长贝森特和日本首席贸易谈判代表通电话，还 传出贝森特将要访问日本的消息。 日本外务省发布声明称，当地时间7月8日周二晚9点，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正与贝森特举行电话会 谈，持续约30分钟。声明称， 在日本收到有关美国关税举措的信函后，日美双方官员"进行了坦率、深入的讨论。""日方 将继续探索与美国达成互惠互利协议的途径。" 周二当天，有媒体援引知情者消息称，贝森特计划下周访问日本，出席在大版举办的2025年世博会。在 持续至10月中旬的大版世博会期间，美国将于7月19日举行国家日庆祝活动。 媒体援引美国高官的消息称，贝森特此次访日是作为美国参加世博会的代表团团长到访，不会进行正式 的双边会谈或贸易磋商。 日本外务省周二的前述声明并未提及贝森特访日的计划，美国财政部未就此访日消息置评。若消息属 实，这将是贝森特自4月16日美日开始进行贸易谈判以来首次访日。 消息传出前一天，本周一特朗普公布了通知日本最新对等关税的信函。据央视新闻，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，表示美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有日本和 韩国产品征收25% ...

美国方面7日称，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关 税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日。对此，联合国和世界贸易组织的合设机构国际 贸易中心执行主任帕梅拉·科克-汉密尔顿8日表示，美国总统特朗普所谓延长关税谈判期限的做法，实 际上进一步增加了不确定性和不稳定性。 ...

美国总统特朗普确认，8月1日是新的对等关税"大限"，并表示不会再次延长这个实行该关税的最后期限，并警告欧盟，将要发出征税函通知实行新的对等关 税。 据央视新闻，当地时间7月8日周二，特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关 税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 据新华社，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上说，截止日期为8月1日的"对等关税"暂缓期不会再延长。 特朗普在上述社交媒体的帖子里写道： "根据昨天发给各国的信函，以及今天、明天和接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于2025年8月1日开始支付。目前为止，该日期没有变化，以后也 不会改变。换句话说，所有（关税）款项将应于2025年8月1日起支付——不予延期。"。 特朗普发布上述言论时，美东时间周二美股早盘时段，主要美股指盘中小幅下跌，标普500指数、纳指和道指至多下跌0.3%。墨西哥比索、智利比索、哥伦 比亚比索刷新日低。 批欧盟针对美科技企业可能未来两天向欧盟发征税函 此后，周二美股午盘时段，特朗普批评欧盟起诉美国科技公司苹果和谷歌的做法。特朗普称，虽然美 ...

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. President Trump threatened tariffs on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [1] - The U.S. has only reached limited trade agreements with a few countries, while negotiations with major partners like the EU and India have stalled [1] - The extension of the tariff delay until August 1 has pushed uncertainty forward, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July [2] Group 2: Steel Industry - Nippon Steel plans to increase crude steel production to 100 million tons over the next decade, aiming to regain its position as the world's largest steel producer [3] - The company is focusing on expanding production in the U.S. and India to compete with Chinese firms, which have dominated the market [3][4] - Despite expansion efforts, Nippon Steel may struggle to compete on cost with Chinese steelmakers, who are also targeting the high-end steel market [4] Group 3: Excavator Sales - In June 2025, excavator sales in China reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with domestic sales up 6.2% [5] - The total sales for the first half of 2025 were 120,520 units, reflecting a 16.8% increase year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and special bond issuance [5][6] - The construction equipment market is influenced by local government funding and the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market [6] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Samsung Electronics expects a 56% drop in operating profit for Q2, primarily due to challenges in its chip business and inventory adjustments [7] - The company has faced significant losses in its foundry business, estimated at over 4 trillion won, due to competition with TSMC and loss of Chinese orders [7][8] - Samsung's misjudgment of the HBM chip market has widened the gap with competitors, impacting its ability to capitalize on the AI chip demand [8] Group 5: OpenAI's Financials - OpenAI's stock-based compensation surged to $4.4 billion, accounting for 119% of its revenue last year, with expectations to drop to 45% this year [11] - The high stock compensation has diluted external investors' equity value and poses challenges for future fundraising [12] - OpenAI's reliance on stock incentives to retain talent amid competition from companies like Meta highlights its financial struggles [12] Group 6: Tesla's Market Performance - Tesla's market value dropped by approximately $68 billion following CEO Elon Musk's announcement of forming a new political party, raising investor concerns [13] - The company reported a 13.5% year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries for Q2, marking a continuous drop for two consecutive quarters [13] - Musk's political ambitions may distract him from company operations, potentially affecting Tesla's performance and stock value [14] Group 7: Market Overview - The Chinese stock market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.7% and trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan [15] - Various sectors, including computing hardware and solar energy, experienced significant gains, while financial sectors lagged [15][16] - The market's upward movement is driven by speculation and news rather than strong underlying fundamentals [16]