Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - Positive U.S. economic data released on the same day boosted the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices, as the dollar index rose by 0.7% to close at 98.554 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised significantly upward to 3.8%, contrary to analysts' expectations of no revision [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, with safe-haven sentiment and bullish funds driving demand for precious metals [2] Group 3 - The December silver futures price increased by $1.355, closing at $45.470 per ounce, marking a 3.07% rise [2] - The short-term pressure on gold prices allowed silver to continue its upward trend and further correct the gold-silver ratio [2]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market showed mixed trends on September 25, with gold prices consolidating at high levels while silver prices surged significantly [1] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3780.5 per ounce, up $12 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.32% increase [1] - The U.S. economic data released on the same day exceeded expectations, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, with the dollar index rising by 0.7% to 98.554 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was significantly revised up to 3.8%, driven by strong consumption and a slowdown in imports, contrary to analysts' expectations of no revision [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - The overall expectation for policy easing remains unchanged, with safe-haven sentiment and bullish funds driving demand for precious metals, allowing silver to continue its upward trend [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a continuous rise, approaching the 98 mark but ultimately closing at 97.86, up 0.66% [2][3] - Spot gold fell from historical highs, hitting a low of $3717.52, down $60 from the daily high, and closed at $3735.89, down 0.75% [2][3] - Spot silver also declined, closing at $43.89, down 0.3% [2][3] Economic Insights - US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed support for significant interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points, which strengthened market expectations for a loosening cycle [3] - Diverging opinions within the Federal Reserve were noted, with some members warning against excessive rate cuts while others supported further easing due to slowing economic growth and low inflation [3] Trade Relations - The US and EU reached an agreement on auto tariffs, but the US initiated a 232 investigation into medical devices, indicating ongoing trade friction [3] - The Kremlin criticized Trump's attempts to raise global energy prices, while the restoration of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline and the EU's plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports heightened energy and geopolitical tensions [3] Trading Strategy - The interplay of easing expectations and geopolitical risks provides support for gold and silver, but internal Fed disagreements and evolving trade situations may lead to volatility [4] - Key technical levels for gold are noted, with support around $3700 and resistance near $3900, while silver support is at $43 and target at $45 [4] - A strategy of accumulating positions on dips is recommended, with caution advised against chasing prices and managing positions carefully [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight increases amid high volatility, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut not leading to significant gains in silver prices. The dollar index rose approximately 0.65%, reaching a near two-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [1] - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note also increased, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including Trump's peace proposal for Gaza and discussions between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers regarding the Ukraine crisis, have reduced market risk aversion [1] Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, has heightened market caution. Powell emphasized the need to balance persistent inflation risks with a slowing job market, without providing new clues on future interest rate directions, interpreted as a conservative stance on further easing [3] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December. However, there are notable internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding aggressive rate cuts, with some warning against premature easing based on temporary inflation assumptions [3] Upcoming Economic Data and Market Expectations - The market is focused on two key U.S. economic data releases that will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction and directly impact gold prices. The weekly initial jobless claims data is expected to reveal the latest employment market dynamics, with strong data potentially reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday. Higher-than-expected PCE data could validate Powell's cautious approach, while lower inflation could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [4] Market Trends and Strategies - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation trend, suggesting strategies for support and resistance trading. The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend [7] - Technical indicators for silver suggest that prices are near the lower boundary of the trading range, with support at 43.53. Caution is advised in trading due to reduced market activity [7] Global Financial Market Dynamics - The precious metals market continues to present investment opportunities, with investors encouraged to utilize trading platforms for real-time market updates and to seize profit opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver market is experiencing a bearish trend due to reduced geopolitical tensions and positive diplomatic developments, leading to a decline in safe-haven demand for silver [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Recent diplomatic efforts, including Trump's proposal for a peace plan in Gaza, have eased market fears, contributing to a drop in silver prices [3]. - The meeting between U.S. and Russian foreign ministers in New York aimed at seeking a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis has also contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment [3]. - Trump's shift in rhetoric regarding Ukraine, from a dismissive stance to a more supportive one, is seen as a strategy to pressure Putin, further alleviating tensions [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - As of September 25, international silver is trading at approximately $43.79 per ounce, down 0.23% from the previous day, with a daily high of $43.98 and a low of $43.76 [1]. - The silver market opened at $44.013, experienced a drop to $43.662, and then rallied to a high of $44.309 before closing at $43.895, indicating volatility [5]. - Key support levels for silver are identified at $43.65 and $43.35, while resistance levels are noted at $44.40 and $44.80 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing slight fluctuations, currently trading around 148.65, down approximately 0.16%, following a period of risk aversion in the financial markets and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The release of the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes has increased market confidence in the yen, although the Federal Reserve's cautious approach continues to support the dollar [3] - The market is awaiting the final GDP data for the second quarter from the U.S., which could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate if any signs of economic weakness are detected [3] Group 2: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - Key points from the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate that members discussed future monetary policy directions, noting that trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. have reduced uncertainty, but attention must be paid to the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices [4] - Some members emphasized the need to evaluate the impact of the interest rate hike from January this year [5] - All members agreed that if economic and price trends align with expectations, the Bank of Japan should continue to pursue interest rate hikes [6] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve's Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding further policy easing, indicating that the Fed will balance high inflation and a weak job market when making future rate decisions [8] - Financial markets predict potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in the remaining meetings of this year and in the first quarter of 2026, based on the Fed's guidance from last week's meeting [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Exchange Rate - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently in an adjustment phase after a strong upward trend, with expectations of a continuation of the upward movement post-adjustment [10] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midpoint, indicating a bullish bias for this currency pair [10] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the zero line, suggesting that the USD/JPY may remain in an adjustment state in the short term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment towards risk assets [2][6]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy is impacting gold prices, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to balance inflation and employment risks without providing clear guidance on interest rates [2]. - There is a division within the Federal Reserve, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee adopting a hawkish view against aggressive rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while San Francisco Fed President Daly supports further rate cuts to address economic slowdowns [2]. - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% chance in December, although internal divisions may create uncertainty around these predictions [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Recent geopolitical developments, such as Trump's proposed peace plan for Gaza and positive responses from Arab officials, signal a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The Ukraine crisis shows signs of diplomatic engagement, with U.S. and Russian foreign ministers reaffirming a commitment to peaceful resolutions, while trade agreements between the EU and the U.S. are expected to enhance predictability in transatlantic trade [5]. - The reduction in geopolitical tensions has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as investors shift towards riskier assets, negatively impacting gold prices [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices experienced a decline, with a significant drop to 3717, approaching the 5-day moving average support level, which is currently around 3735 [11]. - If gold prices break below the 3735 support level, the next target could be the previous low of 3717, and further declines may lead to a focus on the 10-day moving average near the 3700 mark [11]. - The recent price action indicates a clear adjustment pattern, with resistance levels identified at 3763 and 3775, while support levels are noted at 3735, 3717, 3700, and 3690 [12].

证券时报记者 沈宁 8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期货价格开启持续 上涨行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假期临近，尽管市 场对于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。 截至9月24日下午收盘，上期所黄金期货主力AU2512合约收报860元/克，当日上涨1.03%，收盘价 再创历史新高。白银期货主力AG2513合约收报10397元/千克，当日上涨0.83%，期价同样创出上市以来 新高。海外贵金属市场延续较强势头，截至北京时间下午17：30，伦敦现货金报价在3768美元/盎司附 近。 "美联储降息周期已然开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动 力。地缘局势方面，中东冲突持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的 工业应用前景，共同为贵金属市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金 属价格在连续冲高后本身存在技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险 事件引发多头获利了结，上述因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。" 谈 ...

Group 1 - Since late August, geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven a continuous rise in gold and silver futures prices, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver prices approaching historical peaks [1] - As of September 24, the main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 860 CNY per gram, up 1.03%, marking a new historical high, while the main silver futures contract closed at 10,397 CNY per kilogram, up 0.83%, also reaching a new high since its listing [1] - The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are key drivers for gold and silver prices, alongside strong demand from global central banks and industrial applications for silver [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high gold prices, central banks globally continue to maintain a net buying stance, with a net increase of 10 tons in official gold reserves, although the pace has slowed compared to previous months [2] - In August, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of 5.5 billion USD, marking three consecutive months of inflows, with North American and European funds leading the growth [2] - Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, short-term adjustments may occur due to the upcoming National Day holiday in China, with recommendations for investors to hold light positions during the holiday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation is likely to continue shifting towards gold due to various economic factors and geopolitical tensions, with expectations of further liquidity easing in the U.S. market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures indicates that Powell's remarks suggest a tight monetary policy, interpreted by the market as opening space for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [1]. - The latest PMI data points to resilience in the U.S. economy, which may alleviate concerns about economic slowdown, although profit-taking is observed near historical highs in precious metals [1]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is increasing, driven by ongoing conflicts between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, which is reigniting upward momentum in gold prices [4]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Scotiabank forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce next year under optimistic conditions, with a near-term target of $3,800 and support levels at $3,650 and $3,550 [4]. - Jefferies' Christopher Wood predicts that gold prices could touch $6,600 per ounce, based on historical bull markets and U.S. disposable income analysis, indicating a potential increase of over 76% from current levels [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The recent U.S. PPI data falling below expectations supports the notion of Federal Reserve easing, with market expectations fully pricing in rate cuts starting in September and three cuts within the year [2]. - Political uncertainties, including the collapse of the French government and the resignation of Japan's Prime Minister, are heightening risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [2][4].