每经编辑｜何小桃 白银暴涨10%，接近20元/克；现货黄金站上4549美元/盎司，刷新历史高位；铂金大涨，铂金首饰价格每克破千…… | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2459.50 | 231.50 | 10.39% 172.07% | | 现货锂金(美元/盎司) | 1925.00 | 201.50 | 11.69% 111.89% | | 伦敦银现 | 79.329 | 7.519 | 10.47% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) 17869.4607 1671.3171 10.32% 163.59% | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 4532.505 | 53.115 | 1.19% 72.72% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1020.9812 | 10.5676 | 1.05% 65.79% | | NYMEX铂 | 2513.9d | 266.1 | 11.84% 176.13% | | NYMEX铅 | 2060.50d | 253.60 | 14.04% 126.55% | | COM ...

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing significant price surges, with silver reaching $79 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 173% [1][2] - The gold price is approaching its historical high of $4525 per ounce, while palladium has also seen a notable increase of 14.1% [1][2] - The phenomenon of "silver being more expensive than oil" has re-emerged after 45 years, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The current market behavior resembles a "bank run," driven by heightened investor anxiety and speculation, which is distorting normal supply and demand relationships [4][9] - Historical patterns suggest that financial crises tend to occur approximately every 30 years, often triggered by similar factors such as market manipulation and policy interventions [2][4] - The supply-demand mismatch in silver, with industrial demand growing while supply remains constrained, is creating a long-term support for silver prices [7][12] Group 3 - The expectation of a shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, is contributing to the attractiveness of precious metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [6][11] - The industrial demand for silver is expected to increase significantly, driven by advancements in AI and renewable energy sectors, while supply growth is projected to be minimal [7][12] - The current market dynamics are leading to a significant increase in physical silver purchases, as investors move away from paper contracts, resulting in a severe shortage of physical silver [9][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising gold prices due to escalating trade tensions and increased market risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4548 per ounce at the close of A-shares [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), increased by 0.79%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) rose by 2.19%, and non-ferrous metal ETFs (516650) surged by 3.92% [1] - A report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that gold prices recently surpassed $4500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by the Federal Reserve's resumption of easing policies, declining dollar credibility, and escalating global geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that U.S. military actions in Nigeria, announced by Trump, are aimed at addressing threats to local Christian communities from extremist groups, emphasizing severe consequences for attacks on specific religious groups [1] - The geopolitical risks are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, benefiting from the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising gold prices due to escalating trade tensions, increased market risk aversion, and geopolitical factors, with gold reaching a historical high of approximately $4548 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4548 per ounce, reflecting a strong upward trend in gold prices [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) increased by 0.79%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 2.19%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) surged by 3.92% [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - On December 26, President Trump announced military actions by U.S. forces in Nigeria aimed at addressing threats to local Christian communities from extremist groups [1] - The military action specifically targets extremist personnel in northwestern Nigeria, with Trump emphasizing severe consequences for attacks on specific religious groups [1] Group 3: Economic Analysis - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), gold prices recently surpassed $4500 per ounce, driven by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's resumption of easing policies, declining credibility of the U.S. dollar, and escalating global geopolitical risks [1] - The article notes that gold's safe-haven attributes make it particularly beneficial during times of heightened geopolitical risk [1]

中信证券指出，2026年金价有望继续受益于美联储降息带来的流动性宽松氛围，全球黄金ETF流入将作 为黄金的重要买盘。潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪将继续支撑金价，去美元化、央行 购金等长期趋势构成金价上涨的坚实基础，我们预计2026年金价将再创新高，但考虑到2025年金价涨幅 显著，且上述因素已部分在金价中兑现，我们预计2026年金价涨幅或收窄至10%-15%，全年价格或冲击 5000美元/盎司。 ...

今年第四季度，贵金属板块再度走到市场聚光灯下，延续第三季度的稳步上行走势，并在Q4明显加速，并演变为"快速拉升—剧烈波动—高位回调"的典型 结构。VT Markets研究团队观察到，黄金在10月中旬一度冲上4380美元/盎司的历史高位，随后回调至3900美元附近，但在12月下旬再度突破4400美元，显 示市场对黄金的配置需求并未减弱。 更重要的是，这一轮上涨并非黄金"一枝独秀"。白银、铂金与钯金在第四季度集体发力，贵金属市场呈现久违的多点开花局面。相较黄金的稳健上行，铂金 和钯金在过去两年整体表现平淡，本季却因供应链中断担忧叠加长期低估值，引发明显补涨行情。白银则在 AI 新叙事推动下成为焦点，其在电子元件和电 力接触点中的不可替代性，使其被纳入AI基础设施原材料的讨论范围，四季度价格一度升至69美元/盎司，全年涨幅超过100%，被市场称为"加了杠杆的黄 金"。 黄金：核心支撑逻辑依然稳固 VT Markets分析认为，黄金走强并非短期情绪推动，而是建立在清晰的支撑逻辑之上。10月初，中国扩大对稀土与矿产的出口管制，引发市场对关键资源 被"工具化"的担忧；叠加美国政府停摆及信贷市场风险事件，避险情绪明显升温， ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the impact of the Christmas holiday on trading volumes in the capital markets, with major exchanges like NYSE, CME, and ICE pausing trading, leading to lower liquidity this week [1][8] - Gold and silver have experienced significant price increases during this relatively quiet Christmas week, with gold rising from $4,339 to a peak of $4,525, marking a cumulative increase of 4.3%, and silver rising from $67.26 to a peak of $72.68, with a cumulative increase of 8.1% [4][10] - The driving factors behind the surge in gold and silver prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and market speculation regarding potential U.S. actions in the Caribbean region [4][10] Group 2 - The U.S. bond market has shown stability over the past four months, with yields fluctuating between 3.95% and 4.19%, while the federal funds rate is set between 3.5% and 3.75%, indicating a narrow gap of 44 basis points [7][13] - Despite a declining U.S. dollar index, the Federal Reserve's inclination to cut rates appears limited, especially following a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, which has reduced the probability of rate cuts to 13.3% according to CME models [7][13] - While gold and silver are currently experiencing a bullish trend, the article warns that the mid-term outlook may present fewer favorable factors, suggesting a potential risk of price corrections [7][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in precious metal prices, particularly silver, driven by both short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors [1][2] - International gold prices have increased by over 71% year-to-date, while silver prices have surged nearly 150% in the same period [1] - Domestic silver prices have also seen a substantial rise, with a reported increase of 8.12% on the day, leading to an annual increase of over 130% [1] Group 2 - The recent price increases in silver and gold are attributed to macroeconomic conditions and heightened risk aversion, with silver exhibiting stronger price elasticity compared to gold [2] - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver is currently undervalued relative to gold, as historical data suggests a typical range of 40:1 to 60:1 [2] - A potential return of the gold-silver ratio to its historical mean of 50:1 could imply significant upside for silver prices, even if gold prices decline [3]

央广网北京12月24日消息（记者王吉星）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，今年以来，全球贵金属价 格集体飙涨，黄金、白银、铂金等品种均创下历史新高。贵金属价格为何"狂飙"？白银涨成"年度黑 马"的真相是什么？黄金牛市中为何也会亏钱？总台记者专访华夏基金高级策略分析师陈彦冰。 "上涨也能成为上涨的理由" 今年以来，贵金属已成为全球资本市场中最具爆发力的资产之一。黄金全年创下超50次的历史新高，年 内累计涨幅约65%；白银涨幅更是达120%左右，显著跑赢黄金；铂、钯亦加速补涨，今年以来涨幅分 别超过90%、60%。 "几类贵金属品种虽有区别，但同属贵金属家族，其上涨的底层逻辑相通。"陈彦冰认为，以黄金上涨为 例，可以从三个维度理解：一是海外央行降息周期的预期；二是"去美元化"浪潮下，各国央行的配置需 求，构成这轮金价上涨的核心长期逻辑；三是地缘政治的不确定和避险情绪。此外，"上涨也能成为上 涨的理由。"贵金属因为也具备金融属性，所以也具有和其他金融资产一样的自我强化逻辑。 2026年贵金属投资建议 一、保持在场，但要用配置思维来看待，降低预期； 二、分清黄金和其他贵金属的定位，用核心+卫星策略配置； 三、谨慎加杠杆 ...

黄金方面：美国财长贝森特表示，可能会重新考虑美联储的通胀框架，并称他更加倾向于设定通胀区间而非固定目标。贝森特甚至暗示美联储新任主席可能 会考虑废除点阵图，这一举措将标志着美联储政策前景可能发生重大的变化。 另外近期地缘摩擦有所升温，投资者需要重点关注美国和委内瑞拉的关系可能出现进一步恶化的风险；以色列和伊朗可能再起冲突。 需求端看，截至12月12日当周，美国炼油厂产能利用率为94.8%，环比上升0.3个百分点，数据显示美国原油需求有所改善。 综合来看，在供给端有所收窄，需求端略有改善的情况下，原油价格反弹行情有望进一步延续。 技术面：日线上，本周行情延续上行，显示近期行情比较坚挺。指标上看，行情有望站上20日均线，一旦有效上破，则油价有机会挑战上方60美元关口。日 内关注下方58美元一线支撑情况。 原油价格走势图：原油小时图 智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，贝森特的言论令市场再度押注美联储宽松，叠加避险情绪升温，黄金价格表现强势。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情破位上行且收阳线，近期多头强势。20日均线和62日均线延续上行，显示多头主导行情。日内关注下方4455美元一线 支撑情况。 黄金价格走势图：黄金小时 ...