Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" due to rising government debt and interest payments [1] - The total US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing in June alone [1] - Concerns are raised by Republican Congressman David Schweikert about the increasing government debt leading to potential pressure from the bond market, which could disrupt the financial system [3] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary has assured that US debt will never default, but the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" can only last until August, with interest costs rising by $1 billion for each day of delay [5] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is projected at $10.8 trillion in 2025, which is 37% of the projected GDP for 2024, indicating significant repayment pressure [3] - Recent bond auctions have shown weak demand, with a 7-year bond auction yielding a rate higher than the pre-issue rate, reflecting market concerns [3] Group 3 - The US-China relations are under scrutiny, with discussions between leaders emphasizing the need for cooperation and adherence to agreements, despite ongoing trade tensions [5][7] - Trump's communication with Chinese leadership is seen as a strategic move to promote diplomatic relations and address specific issues through dialogue [8]

Group 1 - The recent phone call between U.S. and Chinese officials is seen as a positive signal following the Geneva economic talks, emphasizing the importance of bilateral relations and communication channels [1][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariff measures, leading to significant market reactions, including a more than 3% increase in major U.S. stock indices and a surge in Chinese semiconductor and new energy sectors [3][6] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce expressed confidence that consumers would not feel the impact of tariffs, although he later acknowledged the negative effects of tariff policies on U.S. businesses [1][3] Group 2 - The recent Geneva economic talks have resulted in a wave of new orders for foreign trade enterprises, indicating a positive market response and increased activity in factories [6] - Experts suggest that the U.S. tariff war has not achieved its intended goals, highlighting three major issues: misperceptions, incorrect calculations, and erroneous actions [8] - There is a consensus that while China has effectively countered U.S. trade aggression, the trade conflict is far from over, and future negotiations will be complex and challenging [8]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 期指：下方有支撑 | maolei@gtht.com | | --- | | 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3882.27 | ↓0.81 | | 2329.5 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3846.2 | ↓0.88 | -36.07 | 910.5 | 78281 | ↑25446 | 152612 | ↑8728 | | IF2507 | 3808.8 | ↓0.79 | -73.47 | 49.6 | 4306 | ↑1847 | 6993 | ↑2626 | | IF2509 | 3777.8 | ↓0.78 | -104.47 | 253.8 | 22249 | ↑8949 | 74373 | ↑5103 | | IF2512 | 3736 | ↓0.76 | -1 ...

近日，中美双方团队在瑞士日内瓦就美国对全球滥施"对等关税"政策及对我加征非理性高额关税展开对 等磋商。中方有理有据地批驳了美国滥施关税对全球经济贸易带来的破坏性影响，并坚持美方应全面取 消无理加征的所有关税。5月12日公布的联合声明显示，美方承诺尽快取消4月8日和9日对华加征的91% 非理性高额关税，同时将34%所谓"对等关税"中24%的部分暂缓90天，为下一步中美经贸谈判留出一个 缓冲期。 从对美斗争的长期性和复杂性角度来看，我们不仅应做好对美谈判的充分准备，更应做好长期斗争的准 备。我们对美斗争的真正底气来自国内经济的繁荣发展，继续努力做好稳就业、稳企业、稳市场和稳预 期的各项工作，就能够增强对美斗争的信心和力量。(中国世界贸易组织研究会外顾委委员霍建国) 舆论普遍认为，中国对美关税战取得了积极效果。面对美方霸凌行径和非理性操作，中国以负责任大国 的态度，对美进行有力反制，对此应予以积极的肯定。但是我们也应该意识到，中美贸易冲突并没有结 束，随后的经贸谈判必将是复杂而艰难的，对此我们要有清醒的认识。 美对全球加征所谓"对等关税"后，美国国内政治经济态势发生了较大变化，首先是美国的消费者难以承 受物价上涨和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diminishing trust among U.S. allies due to President Trump's aggressive tariff policies and the call for allies to "de-risk" from the U.S. as they reassess their relationships with both the U.S. and China [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Allies' Response - Allies are increasingly uncertain about their status as U.S. partners, with many European and Asian countries feeling that they are treated the same as adversaries under Trump's tariff policies [3][4]. - The European Union is showing signs of distancing from the U.S. stance on China, with calls for a reassessment of its China policy and discussions for upcoming EU-China summits [4][5]. - Experts suggest that the current U.S. approach is alienating allies, leading them to seek alternative partnerships, particularly with China, which is seen as a more stable partner [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article highlights that many countries now have China as their largest trading partner, with Australia exporting only 15% of its goods to the U.S. compared to its exports to China [6]. - The U.S. tariffs have disproportionately affected poorer nations, with some countries reconsidering their economic ties to the U.S. due to the unpredictability of its policies [10]. - There is a growing sentiment that the risks of relying on the U.S. for technology and trade outweigh those of engaging with China, prompting calls for a strategic shift among U.S. allies [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Analysts recommend that U.S. allies should reduce their dependency on both the U.S. and China by developing alternative technologies and forming a more independent strategic position in global supply chains [8]. - The article suggests that allies should focus on creating a "strategic irreplacability" in key sectors like digital technology, rather than following the U.S. blindly in its anti-China stance [8][9].

现在他们能做的更多是等待。 文 丨 郑可书 李梓楠 龚方毅 管艺雯 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 管艺雯 过去 72 小时，我们对谈了 20 多位在进出口体系各个环节的参与者，从平台到商家，从品牌到物流 商， 从工厂到他们的零部件供应商。 就在对谈期间，数字一直在变，美国对中国商品加征的关税从 54%（包括上一轮冲突加的 20%）变成 104%，昨夜又涨到 125%。 | 进口 | 国家和 | | | 4月9日 | | 4月9日 | 实际 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 足F | 地区 | 2月4日 | | (原计划) | | (变化) | 加总税率 | | 18.5% | 欧盟 | | | 20% | - | 10% | = 10% | | 15.5% | 墨西哥 | 25% | | | | | = 25%* | | 13.4% | 中国 | 两轮次 (10% + 10%) | + | 两轮次 (34% + 50%) | + | 21% | = 125% | | 12.6% | 加拿大 | 25% | | | | | ll 2 ...

4 月9 日，美国总统特朗普以"中国未撤回 34% 报复关税"为由，宣布对华加征 50% 关税，叠加此前税率，对华商品总税率飙升至 104% 。这标志着中美贸易冲突从"摩擦"演变为"核战级对抗"。 就锂电产业而言，加上美国目前对中国电池产品征收 3.4% 的基础关税，以及其计划在 2026 年对来自中国的储能电池施加 25% 的 301 条 款关税 ( 该税率已适用于动力电池 ) ， 将使得动力电池与储能电池对应的关税从 82.4%/64.9% 进一步升级至 132.4%/114.9% 。 | 关税政策 | 动力电池 | 備能电池 | 生效时间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电池基础关税 | 3. 4% | 3. 4% | 已生效 | | 301条款关税 | 25% | 7.5% | 2024年9月 | | | | 25% | 2026年 | | 对中国商品额外关税 | 10% | 10% | 2025年2月1日 | | 对中国商品额外关税 | 10% ---- | 10% | 2025年3月4日 | | "对等关税" | 34W STARTING POINT | 34% | 2 ...