Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices indicates a significant market reaction to global economic uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions [1][5][14]. Price Movements - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3,120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures fell over 2% to a minimum of $3,123 per ounce [2][3]. - In the previous month, gold had surged to a peak of $3,500 per ounce, resulting in a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3][4]. Historical Context - The current gold price reflects a retraction of gains made during a period of temporary tariff implementation [4]. - The gold market's upward trend began in July 2022, with prices rising from $1,900 per ounce to the current level of $3,100 per ounce, marking a 63% increase [6][10]. Driving Factors for Gold Prices - The post-pandemic economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to lower GDP growth rates in major economies, which historically drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10]. - Increased geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern unrest, have heightened the demand for gold as a protective asset [11]. - Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12]. Fundamental Issues - A critical factor in the long-term bullish trend for gold is the declining trust in U.S. sovereign credit, highlighted by recent downgrades from credit rating agencies [13]. - The inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar indicates that as the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against potential dollar depreciation [14]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation is expected to continue, driven by the U.S.'s diminishing global influence and internal political divisions, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for gold [15]. - Historical patterns show that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current economic uncertainties, gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to long-term gold holdings [18][19]. - It is suggested that the returns from gold investments over a five-year horizon are likely to outperform those from more volatile assets like stocks and funds [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, as highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chair, Hawkesby [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The trajectory of the official cash rate reflects that global inflation is not as high as previously thought [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be contingent on evolving circumstances [1]

巴西央行官员Nilton David：全球经济仍然存在高度的不确定性。 ...

巴西央行官员Nilton David表示，全球经济仍然存在高度的不确定性。 ...

周二（5月20日）因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论，同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈，其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软，并跌至100大关附近，最终收跌0.34%，报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性，现货黄金先跌后涨，在欧盘时段开启涨势，并于美盘加速上行，日内大涨近2%，逼近3300美元大 关，最终收涨1.84%，报3289.98美元/盎司。周三，因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施，黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调，但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看，黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产，尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低，但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息，这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元，随后震荡调整，周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口，目前多头走势偏强，周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口，日线 ...

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers' meeting aims to maintain unity among Western nations in the face of global economic uncertainties, despite significant disagreements over U.S. trade policies [1][3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to push for a return to fundamental principles, focusing on global economic imbalances and non-market behaviors, particularly criticizing China's export-led economic policies [3][4] - The meeting will address various topics, including support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, while also evaluating new EU sanctions proposals [4] Group 2 - There are ongoing discussions about the impact of U.S. tariffs on allied countries, with Canada striving to create a joint statement to lay the groundwork for the upcoming G7 leaders' summit [1][3] - The G7 members face challenges in reaching a consensus on climate policy, particularly due to differing views on green energy initiatives under the Trump administration [4] - The potential for further negotiations on U.S. tariff policies is highlighted, with Japan currently facing a tariff rate of 24% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasizes that maintaining low and stable inflation is a top priority, noting increased global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility over the past three months, leading to a balanced assessment of inflation risks [1] Group 1 - The global economic uncertainty has increased in the last three months [1] - Financial market volatility has significantly intensified during this period [1] - The committee assesses that the risks to inflation are now more balanced [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that global economic uncertainty has increased over the past three months [1] - Financial market volatility has significantly intensified for a period of time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to adopt a dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in the upcoming policy meeting, marking the first cut since February [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The RBA is likely to indicate that inflation indicators have returned to target levels, but due to global economic uncertainties and a robust Australian job market, a series of rate cuts is unlikely [1] - The option of a 50 basis point cut does not seem to be under consideration in the current calm financial market environment [1] Economic Indicators - The RBA's decision will be influenced by the active employment market and steady wage growth amidst weak productivity [1]

Group 1 - The second meeting of the China-Europe Financial Working Group was held in Brussels, Belgium, on May 13-14, focusing on global economic uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions [1] - Discussions included financial stability, banking and insurance regulation, and the development of pension funds and leasing companies [1] - Constructive discussions were held on emerging areas such as sustainable finance, cross-border data flow, and the construction of cross-border payment systems [1] Group 2 - A roundtable meeting for China-Europe financial institutions took place concurrently, where financial institutions provided professional advice on digital transformation and fintech innovation [1] - There was extensive communication regarding specific requests to optimize market access and promote business innovation [1] - All parties agreed to establish a regular communication mechanism to jointly promote deeper and broader financial cooperation between China and Europe [1]