全球经济的碎片化不仅表现为贸易和投资联系减弱，还可能在制度与结构层面呈现新的演化形态。如何在不同规则圈和网络之间保持灵活性与回旋空间， 将成为未来经济外交的重要考量 文｜徐奇渊 若中美两国商业联系显著下降，可能引发何种情景？ 近期，笔者在美国参会时现场投票有这样一个议题。25位与会专家的投票结果值得玩味：首先，"中国将被孤立，美国则与其他国家建立更紧密联系"这一 选项无人问津。相反，"美国将被孤立，而中国加强与其他国家的关系"，没有中国专家选择此选项，但有趣的是，55%的美国专家倾向于这一观点。再 者，"中美两国都将被孤立，而其他国家基本上仍保持一体化"，这一看法未得到任何中美专家的支持。最后，"全球商业活动减少，全球经济走向碎片 化"，这个选项得到了所有中国专家以及45%美国专家的认可。专家观点不一定就是答案，但这几个选项引发了笔者深思。 企业层面的"最小化成本"战略 与美国企业高管进行交流，使上面的问题有了新的体会。 首先，重要企业的战略转向了"最小化成本"（Bare Minimum）的战略，即通过最小化成本来应对不确定性。由于特朗普政府的政策，尤其是关税政策的 多变性，跨国公司很难基于这些政策做出长期规 ...

本次关税冲击波正在重构全球经贸关系图谱。巴西政府率先表示"绝不接受经济胁迫"，宣布启动WTO争端解决机制，并考虑对中国、阿根 廷等新兴市场调整出口政策。阿尔及利亚能源部暗示可能重新评估对欧天然气供应价格，伊拉克则出现暂停美元结算的议会动议。值得注 意的是，美方政策文件中特别警示：若相关国家采取反制措施，关税将翻倍适用；对第三国转运行为实施更严苛惩罚性税率。这种"超限 战"式贸易政策已引发WTO多边机制有效性讨论，德国经济研究所最新报告显示，全球贸易体系正面临1985年广场协议以来最严峻的规则性 挑战。 本次关税政策的出台具有显著差异化特征。各国关税分级标准依据经济规模和市场依赖性设定：对菲律宾出口产品加征20%关税，文莱与 摩尔多瓦产品25%，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚、斯里兰卡产品30%，而巴西作为南美最大经济体则承受50%的超高关税。白宫在致巴西 总统的特别文件中明确指出，50%关税包含双重惩戒意图：既为报复巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗所受司法追诉，也为重塑所谓"失衡"的贸 易关系。美国贸易代表办公室同步启动对巴西的301条款调查，重点关注其市场准入限制和技术转让政策。 选择8月1日生效的政策安排暴露多重策 ...

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 2025 Global Economic Outlook predicts a decline in global economic growth to 2.3% from a previous forecast of 2.7%, with trade uncertainty being a key factor affecting economic prospects [1] - Experts at the Summer Davos Forum highlighted that uncertainty is the main theme of the year, leading to reduced corporate investment and cautious consumer spending, although a predicted global recession has not yet materialized [1] - Some countries, such as the US and China, have seen varying economic outcomes, with the US experiencing a slowdown but without catastrophic consequences, while China and Ireland have increased export trade to boost their economies [1] Group 2 - The Minister of Sustainable Development from Bahrain indicated that alliances among certain countries are not aimed at market openness but rather at establishing higher trade barriers, which could exacerbate global economic fragmentation [2] - A report from the World Economic Forum earlier this year warned that increasing economic fragmentation could pose significant risks to the global economy [3]

2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。17日下午，主题论坛三"全球 经济碎片化的挑战"顺利举办。哈萨克斯坦前副总理、哈萨克斯坦央行前行长海拉特·克里姆别托夫， 中国金融学会副会长、国家开发银行原行长欧阳卫民，克罗地亚国家银行行长鲍里斯·武伊契奇，纽 约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授鲁里埃尔·罗比尼参与讨论并发表观点。清华大学五道口金融学院副院 长、金融学讲席教授张晓燕主持论坛。 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 海拉特·克里姆别托夫表示，当前全球经济正处于高度不确定性中，这对政策制定者提出了极 大挑战。曾经被广泛接受的经济规则和理论如今不再适用，未来图景尚不清晰。他指出，当前 的形势在某种程度上类似于20世纪30年代美国 大萧条初期。此外，国际争端的处理方式 也日益趋向商业化，更像是企业间的谈判，而非国家间的战略协商，使得全球互动 逐渐演变为一种以交易为导向的关系。 尽管面临种种挑战，他认为，全球格局正在 逐 步 向 区 域 化 演 变 ， 这 一 趋 势 有 可 能 为 中 亚 国 家 带 来 新 的 发 展 机 遇 。 在 这 一 背 景 下， ...

Group 1 - The trend of global economic fragmentation is becoming increasingly significant, driven by trade and technological decoupling, policy divergence, and rising global uncertainty [1][2] - Fragmentation is a relative concept compared to globalization and integration, characterized by weakened economic ties between countries, increased trade barriers, intentional technological decoupling, and restrictions on factor mobility [2][3] - The past 15 years have shown a continuous process of fragmentation, with recent trends indicating a clear decoupling in global trade structures, particularly highlighted by the Russia-Europe divide following the Ukraine conflict [2][3] Group 2 - The rise of populism and extremism has significantly impacted global fragmentation, with many countries believing that privatization, free markets, and trade liberalization are optimal solutions, while the era of super globalization is considered over [3] - The trade conflict between the US and China is a key driver accelerating global fragmentation, with ongoing complaints from the US regarding trade barriers, intellectual property protection, and market access issues [3] - Geopolitical factors have led to fragmentation between the US and China, with a shift in focus from economic efficiency to economic security, which may have substantial implications for future development [3] Group 3 - There is a need to establish a strong awareness of a shared human destiny and confidence in the inevitability of global economic integration and cooperation in industrial division [4] - Recommendations include encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, maintaining overall financial market stability, promoting educational reform, and enhancing policy coordination and communication [4] - A dual approach is suggested to advance globalization while addressing the challenges posed by fragmentation [4]

5月17日-18日 2025清华五道口全球金融论坛 于深圳盛大召开 汇聚国内外金融界 领袖、学者及行业精英 浓缩思维干货 定位思维坐标 主题三：全球经济碎片化的挑战 主题四：粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 这两场的嘉宾金句干货已打包完毕 快查收↓↓↓ 主题讨论三 全球经济碎片化的挑战 张晓燕 清华大学五道口金融学院 副院长、讲席教授 海拉特・克里姆别托夫 哈萨克斯坦前副总理 哈萨克斯坦央行前行长 鲍里斯・武伊契奇 克罗地亚国家银行行长 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长 国家开发银行原行长 鲁里埃尔・鲁比尼 纽约大学斯特恩商学院荣休教授 主题讨论四 粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 张伟 清华大学五道口金融学院院长助理 时卫干 深圳市委金融委员会办公室常务副主任 市委金融工作委员会常务副书记 市地方金融管理局局长 陈维民, JP 香港金融管理局副总裁 金融学院副主席 王春新 香港特别行政区特首政策组副组长 朱军林 澳门金融管理局顾问 李杰峰 香港中小上市公司协会会长 捷克JKL投资有限公司董事长 编辑丨兰银帆 审核 | 王晗 来源丨清华五道口 ...

Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum will be held in Shenzhen on May 17-18, 2025, focusing on the theme "A Shared Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System" to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders to gather wisdom and seek new cooperation opportunities [17]. Agenda Summary - The forum will feature keynote speeches and multiple thematic discussions, including: - Keynote speeches on the first day [6][10] - Discussions on the future of the global monetary system, international trade and investment, challenges of global economic fragmentation, and the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6][11] - Sessions on green finance, emerging market debt crises, and global financial stability presented by the IMF [6][12] - The second day will include discussions on China's economic outlook, technological innovation in finance, digital finance in the AI era, and sustainable investing [12][14] - Closed-door sessions focusing on financial security, aging population challenges, inclusive finance, and cross-border payment trends [7][14]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum will be held in Shenzhen from May 17 to 18, focusing on building an open and inclusive economic and financial system, aiming to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders [88]. Group 1: Event Details - The forum will feature over 20 high-level political and economic leaders from both China and abroad, with nearly 100 international heavyweight guests in attendance [3]. - The opening ceremony will take place on May 17 from 9:00 to 11:10 [6]. - Various thematic discussions will be held, including topics such as the challenges of global economic fragmentation and opportunities and challenges in green development [17][26]. Group 2: Thematic Discussions - The first thematic discussion will focus on "Global Economic Fragmentation Challenges," scheduled for May 17 from 15:30 to 16:45 [17]. - Another discussion will address "Opportunities and Challenges in Green Development," occurring on May 17 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [26]. - A session on "Financial Assistance for Cultural and Tourism Industries to Become Pillar Industries" will be held on May 18 from 14:00 to 15:15, with a rebroadcast on May 19 [76].

Group 1 - The foreign ministers of BRICS countries express serious concerns about the potential fragmentation of the global economy and the weakening of multilateralism [1]