Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exemption of refined copper products from tariffs by President Trump has disrupted market expectations, leading to significant losses for traders betting on rising U.S. copper prices, while those who anticipated Trump's policy changes benefited greatly [1][3][8] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement on July 30, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) plummeted by 22%, marking the largest single-day decline since at least 1988 [1][2] - The exemption of refined copper, including cathodes and anodes, from the 50% tariff led to a rapid disappearance of the price premium that Comex copper had over London Metal Exchange (LME) copper, which had previously exceeded 20% [6][7] Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The market upheaval resulted in substantial losses for many long positions established based on U.S. protectionist policy expectations, while traders betting on Trump's unpredictability saw remarkable returns [3][8] - Over 31,000 options contracts shifted from out-of-the-money to in-the-money status overnight, with a nominal value soaring to $3.54 billion [3][8] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The strategy that capitalized on the price difference between Comex and LME copper collapsed due to the tariff exemption, as Comex copper prices turned to a discount compared to LME prices [6][7] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that despite the market's reaction, the fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, and they do not foresee a large-scale diversion of copper exports from the U.S. [7]

Group 1 - The Brazilian coffee industry hopes to be included in a broader exemption list being drafted by the U.S. government to avoid a 50% import tariff [1] - The U.S. is considering a tariff exemption list based on "natural products not produced domestically," with coffee, cocoa, and some tropical fruits expected to qualify [1] - The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) is actively communicating with partners like the National Coffee Association to advocate for coffee's inclusion in the exemption list [1] Group 2 - The U.S. relies almost entirely on imported coffee, with Brazil being the largest supplier, accounting for approximately 35% of U.S. coffee imports [1] - About 76% of the U.S. population consumes coffee, and high tariffs on Brazilian coffee could significantly impact local businesses and consumers [1] - Starbucks sources about 22% of its coffee beans from Brazil, and new tariffs could increase procurement costs, potentially affecting product prices and contributing to U.S. inflation [2] Group 3 - Other Brazilian exports to the U.S., such as mangoes and cocoa, are also considered for exemption, with Brazil being the third-largest supplier of mangoes, accounting for about 8% of U.S. mango imports [2] - Cocoa is among the top ten agricultural products exported from Brazil to the U.S., with an average annual import volume from Brazil representing about 18% of U.S. cocoa imports from 2020 to 2024 [2]

Core Point - The U.S. President Trump has exempted orange juice and certain aircraft parts from tariffs imposed on Brazil [1] Group 1 - The exemption of orange juice from tariffs may benefit the agricultural sector, particularly citrus producers in the U.S. [1] - The decision to exempt aircraft parts could positively impact the aerospace industry, facilitating smoother supply chains for manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the partial removal of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on certain small solar devices imported from China, specifically low-power, off-grid solar cells and modules used in lighting control systems [1][2]. Background of Tariff Adjustment - The tariff policy dates back to 2011 when the U.S. Department of Commerce identified "unfair pricing" practices by Chinese manufacturers, leading to the imposition of duties on solar cells and modules [2]. - In 2024, Lutron Electronics Co. Inc. applied for the removal of tariffs on small, low-power solar cells, arguing that these products, typically under 20 watts, do not compete directly with large-scale solar manufacturers in the U.S. [2]. Review Process - Following Lutron's application, the Department of Commerce initiated a formal review and solicited industry opinions, receiving no objections from domestic manufacturers, indicating a significant difference in demand characteristics between small solar devices and large solar components [3]. - The Department of Commerce announced a preliminary decision in April 2025 to remove the relevant tariffs, which officially took effect on July 24, 2025, with specific conditions for exemption [3]. Tax Refund Policy Implementation - In addition to tariff removal, the Department of Commerce has initiated a refund process for anti-dumping and countervailing duties paid by importers since December 1, 2022, allowing eligible companies to reclaim duties paid over the past two and a half years [5]. - Lutron stated that the removal of tariffs would directly reduce raw material costs and enhance its competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. Industry Impact - The tariff adjustment is viewed as a "refinement" of U.S. photovoltaic trade policy, allowing exemptions for low-risk, specialized solar products while addressing domestic business needs without triggering broader political controversies [5]. - The exemption reflects the highly segmented nature of the global photovoltaic industry, with Chinese companies holding technological and cost advantages in the off-grid, low-power solar product sector [5]. Future Outlook - Despite the positive signals from tariff removals, the overall trade landscape between the U.S. and China remains challenging, with ongoing investigations into anti-dumping practices for solar products from Southeast Asia and high tariffs on large solar components from China [6]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. may further expand the scope of tariff exemptions, but trade restrictions on core areas like large ground-mounted solar components are likely to persist [6].

Core Viewpoint - The French Finance Minister emphasizes the importance of continuing negotiations with the United States to secure tariff exemptions for wine and spirits, indicating that the EU-US framework trade agreement represents the best compromise available [1] Group 1 - The French government is actively seeking tariff exemptions for its wine and spirits industry [1] - Ongoing discussions with the United States are seen as crucial for achieving favorable trade terms [1] - The EU-US framework trade agreement is highlighted as a potential solution to trade disputes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chile's Finance Minister Marcel introduced preliminary plans for negotiations with the U.S., aiming for an agreement by the end of the current round of talks, which are flexible in duration [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - The negotiations with the U.S. are expected to last three days, with a focus on mutual understanding and win-win outcomes [1] - Topics raised by the U.S. are within the negotiable framework of the bilateral free trade agreement [1] Group 2: Tariff Exemptions - The Chilean government seeks tariff exemptions for wood and copper, similar to agreements reached by the Trump administration with other countries regarding steel and raw materials [1] - If copper tariffs take effect on August 1, market volatility is anticipated to increase [1]

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating indicates a downward trend, with a trend strength of -1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,645 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 193,107 lots, an increase of 41,021 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 124,461 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 188,773 lots, a decrease of 1,902 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,546.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.31 yuan/ton [1] - The difference between ZN00 and ZN01 was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc's third - consecutive contract was -1,360.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.07 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 13,767 tons, an increase of 478 tons; LME Zinc's inventory was 115,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [1] - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME Zinc's cancelled warrants were 54,950 tons, an increase of 150 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 19,243 tons, a decrease of 2,712 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia on the Russia - Ukraine conflict to 10 - 12 days, causing crude oil to rise nearly 3% during the session [2] - Chile expects to obtain tariff exemptions from Trump, which caused New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [2][3]

标普500指数惊险六连涨续创新高；美元涨超1%创两月最大涨幅，欧元跌超1%；黄金四连跌，纽 约期铜一度跌超6%；国内焦煤夜盘跌超10%。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举行。 中国育儿补贴政策来了，3周岁以下婴幼儿每孩每年3600元。 特朗普等不及了，缩短对俄罗斯达成协议最后通牒期限，原油盘中涨近3%。 美财政部三季度借款预期破万亿，上调82%，债务上限提高后加速发债；5年期美债拍卖意外疲 软，海外需求创三年新低。 智利预计能获特朗普关税豁免，纽铜一度跌超6%，铜矿股普跌。 特斯拉给三星下165亿美元芯片大单，马斯克称将亲自参与提升生产效率。 ...

所以Marcel希望，今天在华盛顿开始的谈判中，也能把铜纳入谈判范围，否则就没意义了。因为智利对美国出口的商品中，超过 一半是铜和木材，如果这些被排除在谈判成果之外，那这个协议对智利没什么好处。 同时，Marcel明确否定了对美国产品加征报复性关税的可能性。他强调，加关税最终是让自己国家的消费者买单，他不想惩罚 智利的老百姓。 受Marcel发言影响，COMEX铜期货短线跳水，日内整体跌幅迅速扩大至超6%，随后跌幅砍半。美股铜矿概念股也普跌， McEwen盘中跌超6%，自由港（FCX）盘初跌超5%。 纽约铜盘中跌超6%，因智利财长预计将获得美国铜关税豁免，而且智利不会报复美国关税。 7月28日周一，智利财政部长Mario Marcel就与美国正在进行的关税谈判发表了讲话。此次谈判有两个部分可能会影响智利，一 个是普遍性的关税，就是对很多国家都一样收税。另一个是特别对铜征收50%的高关税，但目前细节还不清楚。 Marcel认为有希望把铜排除在高关税之外，因为在跟其他国家的类似谈判中，美国是愿意为原材料（比如钢铁、铜）单独"开绿 灯"谈条件的。Marcel举例称，英国和美国的协议里，钢铁就是特别谈的，印度尼西亚和 ...