Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the supply - demand gap persists before the new crop is on the market, providing strong support for spot and near - month contract prices. In the long - term, potential increases in forward import orders and new - season supply may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, there is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar creates significant upward pressure on the futures market [6]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend needs verification during the September peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for month - spreads [8]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [13]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [16]. - **Pigs**: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need further verification from spot prices, and short - term supply is sufficient with seasonal support [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, corn prices in some regions changed, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in蛇口. Starch prices were stable, and the processing profit increased by 2 yuan [2]. - **Analysis**: Corn supply tension is slightly relieved by auctions. Starch is in a loss situation with high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in柳州. The import profit increased by 7 yuan/ton for Thailand sugar [6]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices. Domestic import arrivals create upward pressure on the futures market [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of 3128 imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The 32S spinning profit increased by 77 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis**: Inventory reduction drives price increases, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, egg prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 0.10 yuan in山东 and河南. The base difference decreased by 38 [13]. - **Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive price increases, but high inventory and存栏 may limit the increase [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The national inventory increased by 68 (unit not specified) [16]. - **Analysis**: New - season production may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, pig prices in some regions increased, with a maximum increase of 0.40 yuan in河南开封. The base difference increased by 400 [16]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists, and futures prices need spot verification [16].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term support for spot and near - month contract prices is strong due to expected supply gap before new crop listing, but long - term supply increase may pressure prices [4]. - For starch, short - term weak rebound is expected, while long - term outlook is bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material cost [4]. - For sugar, international sugar price may have a corrective rebound, and the domestic market faces upward pressure as imported sugar is about to arrive in large quantities [7]. - For cotton, the price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification in September; consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage for month - spreads [9]. - For eggs, the spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [14]. - For apples, the new - season output may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs further verification from the spot market [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a 16 - yuan increase in潍坊 and no change in蛇口. Starch prices in some regions also had minor changes, with a 50 - yuan increase in Heilongjiang and a 30 - yuan increase in潍坊 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply tension is alleviated by reserve auctions, and the price has support before new crop listing. Starch has a weak short - term rebound and a bearish long - term outlook [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot prices in柳州, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the base difference increased by 63, and the import profit and warehouse receipts changed [7]. - **Analysis**: International sugar price may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production, and the domestic market has upward pressure from imported sugar [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 215 yuan, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 196 yuan [9]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification, and consider month - spread arbitrage [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the base difference increased by 68 [14]. - **Analysis**: Spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory and high存栏 may limit the rebound [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot price in Shandong remained 7800 yuan, and the national inventory decreased by 23 [16][17]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference increased by 125 [17]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs spot verification [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - **Cotton**: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Boosted by Macroeconomics, Beware of Sentiment Reversal; Soybean Oil: Following the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties" [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil is boosted by macro factors, but there is a need to be vigilant about sentiment reversal; soybean oil follows the oil and fat sector and is relatively weak among varieties [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,926 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.18% increase and 8,954 yuan/ton at night with a 0.31% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.20% decrease and 8,072 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,477 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.90% decrease and 9,450 yuan/ton at night with a -0.28% decrease; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,263 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.88% increase and 4,233 ringgit/ton at night with a -0.31% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 55.48 cents/pound with a -0.61% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 706,504 lots with a decrease of 2,205 lots and an open interest of 492,920 lots with a decrease of 16,949 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 296,786 lots with a decrease of 24,688 lots and an open interest of 521,320 lots with a decrease of 14,497 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 298,782 lots with an increase of 55,607 lots and an open interest of 225,053 lots with a decrease of 16,433 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,550 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,040 dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 74 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 204 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 73 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 551 yuan/ton (previous 653 yuan/ton); the futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 850 yuan/ton (previous - 818 yuan/ton); palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton (previous 52 yuan/ton); soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton (previous 44 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan/ton (previous 71 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - UOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20, 2025, is expected to increase by 5 - 9%, with production in Sabah expected to decrease by 0 - 4%, in Sarawak to decrease by 1% to increase by 3%, and in Peninsular Malaysia to increase by 11 - 15% [3] - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil next month to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit, driven by the strong soybean oil market and Indian festival demand. However, the upward trend of vegetable oil prices may be restricted by the abundant global oilseed supply, especially soybeans. Since January, soybean oil has rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of 19%, exceeding the increases of rapeseed oil and palm oil. From May to June, Malaysia's palm oil exports to India were above 250,000 tons each month, and this positive trend is expected to continue in Q3. India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in Q3 [5] - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - India's Ministry of Agriculture states that oil palm cultivation is not promoted in forest areas to address environmental concerns [6] - USDA's weekly soybean crushing report shows that as of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [6] - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July 2025 will be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports will be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports will be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [6] - IMEA reports that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 - 18, 2025, was 441.52 reais/ton, down from 443.58 reais/ton the previous week [7] - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons (compared to 200,000 tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 520,000 tons (compared to 770,000 tons last year), and soybean meal imports were 1 million tons (compared to 1.11 million tons last year) [7] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [8]

二、市场信息 1. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 7 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少 0.16%，产量环比上月同期增加 6.19%。 2. 马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 7 月 1-20 日的棕榈油出口量为 740394 吨，上月同期为 798813 吨，环比减少 7.31%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 成利多，然而考虑到目前的高存栏及冷库蛋等供给问题，蛋价高点大概率低于去 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2509 | 年同期。 周一，生猪主力 早盘反弹，随后有所回落，截至收盘，日收涨 1.63%，报收 | | | | 14365 元/吨。生猪现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 14.4 元/公 斤，环比涨 0.24 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 14.48 元/公斤，环比涨 | | | 生猪 | 0.02 元/公斤，广东、山东、四川、辽宁不同程度上涨。养殖端挺价意愿转强， | 震荡 | | | 叠加少 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing the previous tense market sentiment and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the depletion of old - crop stocks still supports prices. In the long - term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - For starch, some enterprises have raised the price of finished starch due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventory limits the rebound. In the long - term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. The Brazilian sugar market has accumulated risks, and raw sugar has the power to rebound. The domestic sugar market follows the international one, but with a smaller amplitude. The upcoming large - scale arrival of imported sugar creates upward pressure on the futures market [3]. - For cotton, the rapid decline in cotton inventory drives up prices, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate [6]. - For eggs, high - temperature and high - humidity weather in northern production areas in early July affected storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. - For apples, the apple bagging in each production area has ended. The new - crop output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices have risen, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples [12]. - For pigs, the reduction in production capacity is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices are rising on expectations, but need to be verified by spot prices. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and factors like the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies should be monitored [12]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Changchun remained at 2230, in Jinzhou at 2300, and in Shekou at 2430. The price in Weifang increased by 20. The corn basis increased by 2, and the import profit decreased by 8. For starch, the processing profit decreased by 7 [1]. - **Analysis**: The supply has increased slightly due to reserve auctions, and prices may be supported in the short - term but face risks in the long - term. Starch prices are affected by raw material prices and inventory [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning decreased by 10, and the basis decreased by 16. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 313 [3]. - **Analysis**: The Brazilian sugar market is in the peak season, and the domestic market follows with less volatility. Imported sugar arrival creates pressure on the domestic market [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 110, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 73 [6]. - **Analysis**: The decline in inventory drives up prices, but downstream factors limit the increase [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Hubei increased by 0.07, and the basis increased by 50. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.13 [8]. - **Analysis**: Weather affected prices in early July, and seasonal factors may drive prices up, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8100. The national inventory increased by 16, Shandong inventory by 2, and Shaanxi inventory by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: The new - crop output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 10 - 16, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 140 [12]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and price rebounds need to be verified by spot prices [12].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For soybean meal, in the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans remains abundant, and if the weather for new - season US soybeans remains favorable, a bumper harvest is expected [2] - For corn, the current supply is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices. New - season corn may face potential production cuts, and prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern during the listing period [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2935 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2576 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.12%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - US soybean: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8% [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2676 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2760 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [3] - US corn: As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 18%. Brazil's daily average corn export volume in the first week of July was 3000 tons, an 80% decrease compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Soybean Meal - In the near term, the arrival of soybeans at ports remains above 10 million tons, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is increasing rapidly. The supply of domestic soybeans will remain abundant until the new - season US soybeans are on the market. The planting area of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly, but the current and future weather is favorable, and a bumper harvest is expected [2] Corn - Currently, the supply of corn is relatively low, and prices are constrained by wheat prices, so they are expected to remain volatile. New - season corn may face production cuts, and during the listing period, prices may enter a weak and volatile pattern under the influence of selling pressure [4] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn sectors is to be cautiously bearish [3][5]

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/08 玉米：近期储备抛储进口玉米，使得市场供应端呈现小幅增量态势，此前紧张的市场情绪得以阶段性缓解，部分用粮企业随之下调收购价格。 短期看，抛储的意图主要为了缓和市场紧张氛围，并不是为了打压玉米价格，在进口偏少的情况下，旧作库存见底依旧对玉米价格形成支撑。 中长期来看，进口利润持续走阔，虽然短期不会对国内供应形成压制，不过警惕进口增加远月价格走弱的风险。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 潍坊 | 锦州 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/01 2260 | 2490 | 2330 | 2460 | -53 | 0 | 462 | 2850 | 2950 | 102 | -63 | | 2025/07/02 2260 | 2478 | 2330 | 2460 | -33 | 0 | 470 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, corn spot prices are expected to remain strong due to low domestic inventory and weakening wheat substitution profit. In the long - term, be vigilant about the risk of falling prices in the far - month due to increased imports [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, reduced raw materials and high prices lead to lower procurement willingness, supporting a rebound in starch prices. In the long - term, weak downstream demand restricts price increases, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar season has mixed production indicators, and the market trades on high sugar - making ratios and production increase expectations, pressuring raw sugar. Domestically, supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. - **Cotton**: High production this year creates strong hedging pressure, limiting price increases. Without new drivers, prices may decline if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [7]. - **Eggs**: After April, farmers' willingness to cull hens increased. Recently, egg prices rebounded slightly, and the culling pace slowed. After the plum - rain season, supply reduction and demand improvement may drive prices up [15]. - **Apples**: There is a slight expected production reduction in the new season. Consumption is at the end of the peak season, and current inventory is low. However, seasonal fruits may affect market share. Monitor the realization of production reduction expectations [19]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a supply - demand game. Futures contracts reflect cycle and seasonal expectations. The key is the inventory reduction path, and the sustainability of the recent price rebound needs attention [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, corn prices in some regions were stable, with the basis increasing by 19 and import profit by 25. Starch basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 7 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term strength in corn spot prices due to low inventory and weakening wheat substitution. Starch prices are supported in the short - term but restricted by weak downstream demand in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 1. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2572 [4]. - **Analysis**: International market influenced by Brazilian production indicators, domestic market supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 74. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 22, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [7]. - **Analysis**: High production restricts price increases, and prices may decline or oscillate depending on demand and macro factors [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, egg prices in some regions were stable, with the basis decreasing by 34. The price of substitute products had little change, and the price of pigs increased by 0.21 [14]. - **Analysis**: Farmers' culling willingness increased after April. Recent price rebound and slowed culling. Post - plum - rain season, supply - demand balance may drive prices up [15]. Apples - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable, and the basis of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [18]. - **Analysis**: Slight expected production reduction in the new season. Low current inventory but affected by seasonal fruits. Monitor production reduction realization [19]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 10 [22]. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in supply - demand game. Futures reflect cycle and seasonality. Key is inventory reduction path and rebound sustainability [22].

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 16, with corn down 9.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel, wheat down 7.25 cents to $5.37 per bushel, and soybeans unchanged at $10.70 per bushel [1] - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush of 192.8 million bushels in May, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with industry expectations [1] - The supply of feed in the market is ample, leading to difficulties in raising corn and wheat prices despite favorable weather conditions in the Midwest [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that corn export inspections for the week ending June 12 were 66 million bushels, lower than the previous week but up 28% year-on-year, reaching a cumulative total of 2.049 billion bushels for the crop year [2] - Soybean export inspections for the same week were 8 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels the previous week, while wheat inspections increased to 14 million bushels [2] - Weather forecasts predict rain coverage in the Plains, Midwest, and South until June 19, followed by a period of high temperatures in the corn belt from June 22 to 24 [2]