Core Insights - The current market dynamics and investment strategies are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on minimizing errors and respecting market trends [1][2][4] - The investment philosophy emphasizes making sound purchasing decisions rather than merely acquiring "good assets" [3] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing research efficiency and decision-making processes within the investment framework [8][9] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The importance of macro analysis is highlighted, as any investment behavior detached from the macro context poses significant risks [2] - The investment approach is centered around a framework that combines various asset classes, aiming for a dynamic balance to optimize returns [4][5] - The philosophy of "less error" in investment decisions is compared to sports, where maintaining a high success rate in critical moments is essential [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a profound restructuring of supply and demand, leading to a shift in investment strategies [3] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is discussed, indicating that the demand side has more choices rather than a complete disappearance of assets [3] - The bond market is expected to exhibit a different pattern in 2025 compared to the previous year, with increased volatility [3] Group 3: AI Integration - AI is viewed as a tool to enhance cognitive efficiency rather than a replacement for human analysts, allowing researchers to focus on value-creating tasks [8][9] - The use of AI in generating high-accuracy meeting records and developing complex risk evaluation models is noted as a significant advancement [8] - AI's role in credit research is emphasized, with the ability to analyze vast amounts of data and produce comprehensive reports [9]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 6 月 29 日 利率择时信号中性偏空 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250627 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.65%，相对上周升高 0.66BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.51%、0.3%、0.02%，从 均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位偏 低、凸性结构点位偏低的状态。 梁雨辰 S1090523070008 liangyuchen2@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 利率价量周期择时信号：中性偏空 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期向上突破、中周期无信号、 短周期向下突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 1 票、上行突破 1 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破总得票数未达 2/3，最终信号的综 合评分结果为中性震荡。同时，由于价量择时的最新趋势在 6 月 25 日转为看空，随后又转为中性震荡，但当前上行突破信号票数 仍大于等于下行突破信号票数，因此整体而言价量信号呈中性偏空 观点。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期提升、分歧微降 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策 ...

可转债周报 20250629 证券研究报告 固定收益 | 固定收益定期 "光大转债"模式再现？ 转债周度专题 本周一晚，齐鲁银行公告"齐鲁转债"预计触发赎回。 浦发转债到期之路也迎来新进展，"光大转债"模式再现。6 月 26 日晚， 浦发银行公告"截至 6 月 25 日，信达证券管理的信丰 1 号单一资产管理 计划通过上海证券交易所系统累计增持公司可转债 117,852,490 张，占浦 发转债发行总量的 23.57%。6 月 26 日，信达证券管理的信丰 1 号单一资 产管理计划将持有的公司可转债通过上海证券交易所系统转让至信达投资 账户"。6 月 27 日，"浦发转债"规模下降 1,178,525.20 万元，与信达证券 增持转债规模相匹配；在此期间，浦发转债转股溢价率维持在 7%附近。这 系列操作与"光大转债"到期前类似：2023 年 3 月，中国华融亦曾大幅增 持临期"光大转债"，后续溢价转股进而极大缓解了"光大转债"的到期偿 还压力。 截至 6 月 27 日，浦发转债剩余规模 382.11 亿元，到期偿还压力有所降低。 除浦发转债外，目前仅有青农转债、紫银转债价格仍在 120 元以下，银行 转债配置 ...

近期，香港保险行业发生了一件挺有意思的事。万通保险跟蚂蚁银行合作，推出了一款至高年化回报可达4.1%的短期储蓄险产品---"稳得利保证回报储蓄 计划"，一上线就成了市场同类产品中的佼佼者。 但更具关注的是，这场合作还打通了目前香港为数不多可以在 App 内完成全流程投保的数字化路径。不仅显著提升了用户体验，也是香港保险行业数字 化转型进程中的关键一步。万通保险作为蚂蚁银行独家数码投保合作方，聚合双方在投资能力、保险运营、智慧化与数字化等方面的优势，也使其成为香 港保险业数字化转型的先锋力量之一。 那么，为什么是万通呢？ 评估一家保险公司的投资能力，首先要看"谁在操盘"。万通保险的投资版图背后，是双百年巨头的深度协同——美国万通人寿与霸菱，其历史积淀与专业 能力构筑了穿越周期的"双保险"。 1.美国万通：百年底蕴成就的金融传奇 在数字化竞争越来越激烈的今天，蚂蚁银行对合作伙伴的要求已经不只是看产品本身，保险公司在创新能力、资产管理能力、风控水平和长期可持续回报 等维度的综合实力也尤为关键。而万通，正是目前市场上少数能够同时跑出"收益领先"和"体验领先"两条赛道的保司。 作为近年来迅速崛起的重点险企之一，万通保险 ...

2025 年 06 月 28 日 广发基金张雪：宏观视角驱动多资 产投资，左侧布局把握景气拐点 ——基金经理研究系列报告之六十九 证 相关研究 - 证券分析师 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 联系人 肖逸芳 (8621)23297818× xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 化 研 究 量 化 策 略 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 广发基金张雪：证券从业年限 16.8 年，10 年公募基金投资经验，拥有丰富的固收投资和 多资产配置经验。2021 年 12 月加入广发基金，任混合投资部副总经理，2022 年 3 月开 始陆续接手管理广发价值回报、广发恒通六个月持有、广发集远、广发安润一年持有、广 发集轩等产品。曾任北京银行资金交易部债券交易员，摩根士丹利华鑫基金固定收益投资 部基金经理、固 ...

【导读】招商基金原副总经理董方，获聘为招银理财总裁 中国基金报记者 刘明 银行理财 " 一哥 " 招银理财正式宣布，聘任董方为公司总裁。 6 月 27 日晚间， 2.36 万亿元管理规模的招银理财发布公告称，公司董事会审议通过了聘任 董方为公司总裁的议案。 招银理财总裁 董方 董方是 24 年的 " 老招行 " ，有着丰富的财富管理及资产管理行业积淀。履新招银理财之 前，董方为招商基金副总经理。业内人士表示，此次对董方而言，算是 " 升职 " 。 据了解，董方的加盟，有望深化招银理财以 " 固收 +" 为代表的全产品线布局，夯实招银理 财投资研究核心竞争力，加速招银理财向 " 全能型资管机构 " 的转型升级。 公开简历显示，董方是工商管理硕士，曾任职于深圳市赛格东方实业发展公司和交通银行深 圳分行。 2001 年 5 月起，董方任职于招商银行，曾任总行资产管理部（招银理财前身）副总经理、 总行财富管理部副总经理、总行财富平台部副总经理。 2023 年 8 月，董方加入招商基金， 曾任招商基金党委委员、副总经理、深圳分公司和成都分公司总经理。 据悉，董方作为招商系金融管理人员，深度参与了招商银行资管业务体系搭建 ...

6月26日，中基协数据显示，截至2025年5月底，我国境内公募基金资产净值合计33.74万亿元，较4月末增 长0.62万亿元，续创历史新高。 增减幅方面，除了混合基金规模稍有下降外，股票基金、债券基金、货币基金和QDII基金的规模均较4月底有 不同程度的增长。其中，货基和债基再度延续了4月份的增长势头，净值分别环比增加了4071.30亿元、2218.76 亿元，增幅分别约为 2.91%和 3.38%；QDII基金和股票基金净值也实现小幅增长，分别较4月底增加了102.54 亿元、34.31亿元，环比增幅约为1.59%和0.07%。 公募基金总规模再创新高 6月26日，中基协数据显示，截至2025年5月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共164家，其中基金管理公司149 家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计33.74万亿元，较4月末增长 0.62万亿元，环比增幅为1.89%。 具体来看，5月份，股票基金、混合基金、债券基金、货币基金和QDII规模分别为4.58万亿元、3.57万亿元、 6.78万亿元、14.40万亿元和6542亿元。其中，货基和债基再度延续了4月份的增长势头，净值分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of data and logic in investment decision-making in the AI era, as highlighted by the manager of Ping An Ruishang's mixed fund [1] - The investment framework presented by the manager is divided into fixed income and equity parts, focusing on interest rate bonds and cyclical consumer investments [1] - The manager believes that the previous short-term fluctuations in the bond market have ended, and the market has returned to a positive trend, despite ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations [2] Group 2 - The manager recommends maintaining a portfolio duration above the market neutral level, while noting that current yield levels may not provide sufficient upside potential [2] - In the equity market, a barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on low-position technology sectors and high-dividend stocks for potential buy opportunities during corrections [2]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Insights - The "Stable 'Fixed Income+' product investment framework and market outlook" was presented by the manager of Ping An Tianrun Bond Fund, emphasizing that in the current complex market environment, such products can provide relatively stable returns through scientific asset allocation and flexible investment strategies [1] - With the economic growth slowing and inflation remaining low, monetary policy is expected to stay accommodative, leading bond market yields to enter the "1% era" [1] - The expected annual return for pure bond products is unlikely to reach 2%, making high-dividend equity assets, such as the CSI 300 dividend yield of 3.45% and the Hang Seng Central Enterprise dividend yield of 7.4%, key focus areas for equity allocation in "Fixed Income+" products [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - As the risk-free interest rate declines, the overall cost-performance ratio of equity assets improves, with stable value or growth-oriented quality companies also presenting investment value [2] - Despite a temporary lack of mainline logic in the market, rational expectations allow for the active pursuit of structural opportunities, indicating that the equity market can still provide enhanced return opportunities for investors [2] - The convertible bond market is expected to follow the performance of underlying stocks in the first half of 2025, with small-cap stocks being a core catalyst for convertible bond strength [2]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the performance of pure fixed income, "fixed income + options," and cash management financial products [1] - The analysis covers the average net value growth rates and highlights top-performing products in each category [5][8][11] Group 1: Product Performance - As of June 19, the average net value growth rate for pure fixed income products with a maturity of three months or less was 1.07%, outperforming cash management products [5] - Among pure fixed income products, 88.55% recorded positive returns each month over the past six months [5] - The top-performing product was Hangyin Wealth's "Happiness 99 Gain Fixed Income (Short Debt) Daily Open Type" with a net value growth rate of 2.89% [5] Group 2: Highlights of Fixed Income + Options Products - The average net value growth rate for "fixed income + options" products was 0.21%, with a maximum drawdown of 1.37% [8] - The leading products in this category were "Zhaoyin Global Asset Momentum Two-Year Fixed Open 8A" and "Zhaoyin Global Asset Momentum Fourteen-Month Fixed Open 8A," with growth rates of 1.91% and 1.55%, respectively [8] Group 3: Cash Management Products - The average annualized yield for RMB cash management products over the past six months was 1.562%, while for USD cash management products, it was 4.028% [11] - The top cash management products included "Qiyuan Cash 5 No. J" and "Qiyuan Currency 2 (ESG Theme) G," with yields of 2.925% and 2.626%, respectively [11]