Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the United States' tariff policy, described as "reciprocal tariffs," is likely to harm its own economy significantly, as warned by both domestic and international experts [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The tariff policy primarily impacts the U.S. economy negatively, suggesting that the U.S. is "self-destructing" and "cutting off its own path" [1] - The U.S. is placing itself in a passive position, with a decreasing number of countries willing to engage in trade [1] Group 2: Global Trade Dynamics - Global trade is shifting from a traditional Western-centric model to emerging centers, with many countries beginning to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar [1] - The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is cited as an example where African nations are motivated to accelerate integration policies [1] - Southeast Asia is also expected to enhance economic integration while maintaining internal diversity [1]

Group 1 - The recent tariff policy in the U.S. has led to significant economic concerns, with a notable decline in GDP by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first contraction in three years [2] - Consumer spending, a critical component of the U.S. economy, grew only 1.8% in Q1, the slowest rate since mid-2023 [2] - Various industries, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, shipping, apparel, and retail, are experiencing severe impacts from the tariff policy, leading to widespread investor sell-offs and consumer dissatisfaction [2] Group 2 - A survey by the American Toy Association revealed that over 80% of the 400+ companies surveyed are delaying or canceling orders due to tariff impacts, with nearly half fearing bankruptcy within months [3] - The agricultural sector, traditionally a strong export area for the U.S., is facing turmoil, with small farms struggling to survive amid the tariff war [4] - The Port of Los Angeles, the largest container receiving port in the U.S., is expecting a 35.91% year-on-year decline in container arrivals for the week of May 4-10, indicating a significant slowdown in imports [4] Group 3 - The logistics industry, employing approximately 9 million people nationwide, is likely to see reduced demand for truck transportation and warehouse work due to declining container volumes, which could lead to widespread layoffs [5] - Economic experts warn that the ongoing decline in imports may result in material shortages and increased prices for consumers, creating a dual challenge of empty shelves and rising costs [5] - Concerns are growing among political and economic figures regarding the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with warnings that it could push the U.S. economy towards a recession [6] Group 4 - The tariff policy is viewed as a significant tax increase, potentially adding thousands of dollars to the tax burden of middle-class families [6] - Experts argue that the new tariffs will reduce manufacturing jobs rather than increase them, undermining the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [6] - The current tariff strategy is described as a "national disaster," with predictions of delayed investment decisions and declining consumer confidence [6][7]

2025.04. 30 本文字数：2203，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 执政百日一直被视为衡量美国总统执政初期表现的关键节点，这一阶段中总统的行动力和影响力往往 达到顶峰。然而，细数过去的100天，如何评价特朗普政府的执政效果？ 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授对第一财经记者表示："总体来说， （特朗普的这100天）不仅没有多少可以拿出手的政绩，反而激起了美国政治和经济上的动荡，加剧 了国家分裂。如果要对这100天打分的话，这是不及格的100天。" 他解释称，特朗普执政百日，对内大刀阔斧，但破多立少；对外雄心勃勃，但乏善可陈。特朗普虽然 改变了拜登政府在清洁能源、气候变化和多元化等诸多问题上的政策，并且对联邦政府进行大规模的 结构调整和裁减雇员，但这些改变并没有取得预期的效果。截至目前，转向传统能源的举措未能直接 降低美国能源价格，对联邦政府的改革也没有实现大规模降低联邦开支的目标，政府赤字仍在增长。 百条行政令引发百条诉讼 行政令是总统向联邦机构发布的指令，具有法律效力，无须国会批准。 加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的"美国总统计划"（American Presidency P ...

吴心伯表示："如果要对这100天打分的话，这是不及格的100天。" 当地时间4月29日，美国总统特朗普在密歇根州马科姆县出席了他的就任百日庆祝集会。 执政百日一直被视为衡量美国总统执政初期表现的关键节点，这一阶段中总统的行动力和影响力往往达到顶峰。然而，细数过去的100天，如何评价特朗普 政府的执政效果？ 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授对第一财经记者表示："总体来说，（特朗普的这100天）不仅没有多少可以拿出手的政绩，反 而激起了美国政治和经济上的动荡，加剧了国家分裂。如果要对这100天打分的话，这是不及格的100天。" 他解释称，特朗普执政百日，对内大刀阔斧，但破多立少；对外雄心勃勃，但乏善可陈。特朗普虽然改变了拜登政府在清洁能源、气候变化和多元化等诸多 问题上的政策，并且对联邦政府进行大规模的结构调整和裁减雇员，但这些改变并没有取得预期的效果。截至目前，转向传统能源的举措未能直接降低美国 能源价格，对联邦政府的改革也没有实现大规模降低联邦开支的目标，政府赤字仍在增长。 值得注意的是，特朗普政府肆意挥舞"关税大棒"、"任性"裁撤联邦雇员、随意取消国际学生签证、强推移民驱逐计划等一系列 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐消化，上周 ...

不过，部分分析师指出，关税阴影可能短期刺激客户抢先下单，从而带来需求激增。彭博智库分析师Ken Hui分析称，欧洲芯片制造商今年可能面 临重大风险，美"对等关税"政策或导致2025年全球半导体市场增长转为负值。 财报发布后，NXP美股盘后下跌超7%。有分析师称，尽管NXP通过并购布局高增长赛道，但宏观经济与政策风险仍对行业复苏构成阻力。受电动 汽车和智能手机相关芯片需求疲软拖累，包括NXP、意法半导体（STMicroelectronics）、英飞凌（Infineon）等厂商正面临周期性挑战。 在公司公布的2025财年第一季度财报中，NXP营收同比下滑9%至28.4亿美元，略高于预期的28.3亿美元；调整后每股收益为2.64美元，高于预期 的2.58美元；净利润录得4.9亿美元，同比减少23%；每股净收益1.92美元，同比下降22%。 财报显示，NXP第一季度汽车业务销售额为16.7亿美元，低于分析师预期的16.9亿美元。公司表示，客户仍在消化疫情期间积累的半导体库存，导 致需求持续疲软。此外，美国近期提出的关税政策可能进一步加剧市场不确定性。 【环球网财经综合报道】荷兰芯片制造商恩智浦半导体（NXP Semi ...

2025年，美国特朗普政府推动的"对等关税"政策，无声地改写了全球货品贸易秩序，也暗中牵动了服务 贸易的板块位移。 旅游业作为服务贸易的重要组成，在商品价格上涨、可支配所得下滑、国际信任流失的多重压力下，亦 感受到了地壳般的震荡。 从本质看，这场关税战对美国而言，既是应对急速膨胀的38万亿美元联邦国债的缓兵之计，也是国内财 政收入的短期补充工具——最终，特朗普选择以激烈的方式应对结构性赤字问题。 在这场全球经济震荡中，旅游业虽非直接涉入货物贸易，却无可避免地被波及。海择资本基于此，提出 以下观察。 在内外夹击下，美国旅游业增长放缓已成必然，而从震央扩散的震荡，正快速向全球延伸。 远距共振：全球旅游业受创 美国旅游业： 震央的初波冲击 对等关税政策直接针对的是货品贸易，但随之而来的连锁效应，迅速渗透至美国服务贸易中旅游业的各 个环节。 酒店、航空器、车辆及设施维护成本的上升，使得酒店建设、景区维护、交通运输等基础设施的资本开 支同步上扬，这种成本推升最终将透过票价、住宿费用、旅游服务价格，回到消费者身上。 不仅如此，非旅游消费品同样因原料与物流成本上升而价格飙涨，进一步侵蚀了民众的可支配所得。 耶鲁大学Budg ...

复盘历史可知，全球范围内的大规模加征关税会对全球贸易造成显著冲击。 1929年后，全球经济渐次步入衰退。在此情形下，保护本国就业，让农民免受外国竞争的影响，成为美国政府的首要目标。基于此，胡佛政府推动关税法案 自1929年起在国会开启听证与投票程序，历经一番过程，《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》最终于1930年6月正式落地。 《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》将美国超过两万种进口商品的关税大幅提高，其关税水平跃至历史第二高，仅次于1828年的关税水平。关税法案出台后，美国主 要贸易伙伴迅速做出反应，英国、加拿大、日本等国纷纷采取相关反制措施。在这些举措的共同作用下，美国与各主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易额均大幅下 滑。与此同时，全球贸易额也呈现持续收缩的态势，国际贸易环境急剧恶化。 从关税法案的具体影响来看，1929—1933年，全球贸易额减少了29.7%，且在关税法案出台的10年后全球贸易额仍未修复到1929年的水平。主要贸易伙伴方 面，1929—1933年，美国从加拿大、德国、英国和日本等国家的进口额均减少超过50%，其间对这些国家的出口额也至少缩减30%。直到1934年，民主党政 府颁布了《互惠贸易协定法》，允许总统在未经国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price has experienced a significant decline since April, primarily driven by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy and OPEC+'s unexpected decision to increase production, raising concerns about a potential global economic recession [2][3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Decline - The WTI oil price dropped from $71.71 per barrel on April 2 to $59.58 per barrel on April 8, while Brent oil fell from $74.95 to $62.82 in the same period [3][4]. - As of April 25, WTI was priced at $63.02 per barrel and Brent at $66.87 per barrel [3]. - The "reciprocal tariff" policy has heightened fears of a shrinking global trade and economic downturn, impacting oil demand [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Side Changes - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 410,000 barrels per day for May, significantly higher than the previously planned 138,000 barrels per day, disrupting the traditional "production cut" strategy [4]. - This decision reflects a rebalancing of interests within OPEC+, as major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia aim to regain market share lost due to previous production cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast down to 1.3 million barrels per day, a reduction of 150,000 barrels from the previous month, and lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0% [5]. - The potential resolution of the Ukraine crisis could lead to increased Russian oil production and exports, further altering the global oil supply landscape [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in oil prices has been exacerbated by speculative trading, with put option prices surging tenfold since April 3, indicating rising market panic [5][6]. - Experts believe that the current oil price drop is influenced more by policy changes rather than supply-demand imbalances seen in previous downturns [6]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain volatile, with Brent and WTI price forecasts adjusted to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively [7]. - The outcome of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and U.S.-Iran negotiations will be critical in determining future oil price movements [8]. Group 6: Impact on Energy Strategy - The decline in oil prices could improve China's international balance of payments, as it is the world's largest oil importer, but may also compress profit margins for domestic oil companies [9][10]. - Experts emphasize the need for China to enhance its energy security and consider strategic reserves while promoting green energy transitions [9][10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 反弹阻力较大，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国"对等关税"政策的负面影响逐渐 ...