技术分析
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冷艺婕:11.2黄金周期跟单可查验净收益 原油周初看震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 06:50
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of integrity and factual analysis in trading and investment strategies [1] - It highlights the unique strengths of female analysts in providing detailed and patient guidance to ordinary investors, particularly in addressing psychological and technical challenges [1] - The author shares insights from years of experience, stressing that common pitfalls in trading can lead to significant losses for investors [1] Group 2 - The analysis of gold indicates a current downtrend with a potential for short-term rebounds, but significant resistance is expected above [3] - The gold price is noted to be in a corrective phase, with the possibility of completing an ABC retracement pattern [3] - The upcoming week is critical for determining the direction of gold prices based on opening trends [3] Group 3 - The oil market is described as experiencing low volatility with a focus on a trading range between 61.5 and 59.5 [5] - The recommendation is to adopt a high sell and low buy strategy due to the lack of a clear directional trend [5] - Both short positions and long positions are seen as having potential opportunities in the current market environment [5]
降息希望浇灭澳元跌幅扩大
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-31 06:34
Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading weakly around 0.6550 against the US dollar (USD), with a current exchange rate of 0.6541, reflecting a decline of 0.15% [1] - The market has downgraded expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger USD, which has pressured the AUD [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI data for October showed weak performance, negatively impacting market sentiment and contributing to the pressure on the AUD [1] Group 2 - The Australian inflation report dampens hopes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.35% on November 4 nearly zero [1] - Economists surveyed expect the RBA to maintain the current rate of 3.60%, with the benchmark rate projected to bottom out at 3.35% by mid-next year [1] - Westpac's chief economist suggests that there is still room for two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with the first potentially in May and the second in August [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is currently in a neutral trend, trading within a rectangular consolidation pattern [2] - Initial resistance is at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the upper boundary of the rectangle around 0.6630; a breakout could lead to a bullish trend towards the yearly high of 0.6707 [2] - Key support is at the 9-day EMA level of 0.6544; a drop below this support could weaken short- and medium-term price momentum, potentially leading to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6450 [2]
郑氏点银:今夜宣布降息,黄金趁机触底快速反补拉升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 15:12
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop to a low of 3886 before a rebound occurred, indicating potential support levels around 3915 and 3960 [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of the 4050 resistance level for gold, suggesting that if the price can close above this level, it may lead to further upward movement towards 4134 and potentially 4200 [1][3] - The analysis indicates that the recent price action may represent a "false breakdown," with expectations of a bullish reversal if the price can stabilize above the midline at 4056 [1][3] Group 2 - Silver is noted to be performing stronger than gold, having broken above the 5-day moving average, with key support levels identified at 47.4, 47.6, and 47.8 [5] - The article suggests that if silver can maintain above these support levels, it may continue to rise towards resistance targets of 48.4 and potentially 49.3-49.4 [5] - The technical analysis provided is based on extensive market observation and aims to guide traders in their decision-making processes [5]
利弗莫尔的一生:求财得财,求死得死
猛兽派选股· 2025-10-29 04:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of stock market patterns, particularly in the context of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) stocks, and highlights the importance of recognizing leading stocks and pivot points for investment decisions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Signals - The PCB market trend can be initially sensed through the performance of two drilling equipment stocks, with a pivotal signal emerging last Monday, followed by collective movement on Tuesday [1]. - Leading stocks exhibit clear trajectories and signals, which aids in decision-making and reduces cognitive load for investors [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Insights from Livermore - Livermore's trading philosophy emphasizes the recurrence of certain patterns, particularly the phenomenon of volume reversal following extreme low volume, which often coincides with the breakout of minimum resistance levels [5]. - Despite his lack of formal education, Livermore developed a day trading model based on price records, achieving significant early success, but faced challenges on Wall Street due to delays in price quotes [5]. - Livermore's eventual failures were attributed to ignoring technical analysis and succumbing to narrative-driven decisions, leading to significant financial losses [6]. Group 3: Personal Struggles and Legacy - Livermore's financial downfall was compounded by personal issues, including extravagant spending and emotional turmoil, which ultimately affected his trading decisions and risk management [6]. - His suicide is framed as a choice of a strong individual rather than a sign of weakness, drawing parallels to other notable figures who faced existential crises [7]. - Despite his struggles, Livermore left behind a considerable amount of cash and assets, indicating that his trading career had its successes [6][7].
郑氏点银:黄金持续下跌,今日风水岭下移3972
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 12:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downward trend in gold and silver prices, highlighting key support and resistance levels, and anticipates potential market movements following an upcoming interest rate decision. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, failing to maintain support at key levels of 4055 and 4090, leading to further declines towards 3945 and 3914 [1][3] - The article identifies three critical support levels for gold: 3870 (4-hour average), 3846 (50% retracement from a previous rally), and 3825 (weekly average) [1] - A bearish outlook is maintained unless gold can break above the resistance level of 3972, which is considered a pivotal point for short-term price action [3] Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have shown relative strength compared to gold, with a recent correction to the weekly average of 45.6 and a potential bottom forming [5] - The article notes a significant bullish divergence in the MACD indicator for silver, suggesting a possible reversal if it can break above the resistance level of 46.6 [5] - If silver surpasses 46.6, it may trigger a short-term bullish signal, with targets set at 47.2 and 48 [5]
多頭排列VS賣出信號:中芯當前技術面解讀
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-28 08:13
Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) has shown strong stock performance recently, with a 3.5% increase on the latest trading day, reaching a price of 82.7 HKD, indicating a critical technical position for the stock [3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has surpassed all major moving averages, with MA10 at 74.73 HKD, MA30 at 75.24 HKD, and MA60 at 65.05 HKD, forming a bullish arrangement [3]. - Multiple oscillators are signaling sell indications, particularly the MACD and Bollinger Bands, which suggest caution for investors [3]. - The RSI is at 57, indicating a neutral range, while the Williams %R shows overbought conditions, hinting at potential short-term pullback pressure [3]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key resistance is at 86.5 HKD; a breakthrough could lead to a target of 95.5 HKD. Support levels are at 72.6 HKD and 64.5 HKD [3]. - The stock has experienced a volatility of 12.3% over the past five days, suggesting significant price fluctuations may occur around these critical levels [3]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent performance of structured products has been notable, with the BNP Paribas call option (19088) surging 27% in two days, and the UBS bull certificate (63595) rising 63%, while the underlying stock only increased by 6.88% [3]. - Popular call options include those from Bank of China (21283) and UBS (17146), both with a strike price around 95.05 HKD, offering approximately 3.3 times leverage [5]. Bear and Bull Certificates - UBS bull certificate (63595) and HSBC bull certificate (61585) have a redemption price set at 68 HKD, providing nearly 6 times actual leverage, suitable for high-risk tolerance investors [7]. - For bearish investors, UBS bear certificate (63598) and Societe Generale bear certificate (62695) have a redemption price at 95 HKD, aligning with the second resistance level [7]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent price increase, some investors are beginning to adopt a slightly bearish outlook, which aligns with the technical signals indicating a predominance of sell signals [10]. - The stock's resistance level at 86 HKD is crucial for determining whether the upward trend can continue or if a correction is imminent [11].
小米強力買入信號現!窩輪牛熊揀邊隻博反彈?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-27 11:56
Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has recently launched the Redmi K 90 series smartphones and announced a new subsidy for electric vehicle purchases, indicating a strategic push to enhance product offerings and customer incentives amidst a challenging stock performance [1][3]. Product Launch and Pricing Strategy - The Redmi K 90 series smartphones were released on October 23, with prices ranging from 2,599 to 5,499 yuan, accompanied by promotional discounts and extended warranty offers [1]. - The company is expected to invest over 2 billion yuan in subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, targeting customers who place orders by the end of November and face delays due to manufacturer issues [1]. Stock Performance Analysis - Xiaomi's stock price closed at 45.92 yuan on October 24, down 1.75%, continuing a period of consolidation after a decline from nearly 60 yuan [1]. - The short-term support level is around 44.5 yuan, with potential downside to 40 yuan if this level is breached, while resistance is identified at 49.7 yuan, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a challenge of the 56 yuan high [1]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a divergence, with a strong buy signal at a strength of 12, while moving averages also indicate buy signals; however, MACD and Bollinger Bands maintain sell signals, reflecting ongoing market volatility [3]. - The 5-day volatility is at 5.3%, indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments [3]. Derivative Products - For bullish investors, HSBC call options (product code 16370) and UBS call options (product code 13630) are recommended, with leverage ratios of 3.4 and 3.1 respectively, offering controlled costs and low premiums [5][6]. - For bearish strategies, Bank of China put options (product code 14387) and Societe Generale put options (product code 14178) are highlighted, with leverage ratios of 3 and 3.3 respectively, suitable for those anticipating a price correction [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Discussion - The article invites readers to discuss whether the new product launches and tax subsidies can help Xiaomi's stock price break through the 49.7 yuan resistance, and whether to opt for high-leverage products or more stable options [7].
Gold vs Ethereum: Which Hits $5K First? Here’s What the Charts Say
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-24 20:30
The race is on, and $5,000 is the finish line. But which asset gets there first—gold or Ethereum? On Myriad, the prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders have placed their bets: 65.5% of the money is on ETH reaching $5,000 before gold does. It's a bold call considering gold, trading for $4,115 today, is closer to the target, despite registering its biggest one-day correction in over a decade. But the technical analysis reveals why crypto traders might be onto something—and why ...
郑氏点银:今晚CPI数据会带来不小的振幅,留意4044得失
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 16:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility expected from the upcoming CPI data, emphasizing the importance of the 4044 level for market movements, particularly in gold and silver trading. Gold Analysis - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with a low of 4052 and a high of 4155, facing resistance at 4160, indicating a potential bearish trend if it closes below the midline support [1] - The daily chart shows a small bullish candle, suggesting ongoing consolidation within a bottom range, with critical resistance at 4155-4160 and support at 4025 [1] - The 4-hour chart indicates that the 4044 level is crucial for determining the market's direction, with potential further declines if it breaks below 4100 [1][3] Silver Analysis - Silver is trading within a range of 47.75-49.7, with recent signals indicating a potential for further declines if it fails to hold above key support levels [1][3] - The support level for silver is noted at 46.8-46.9, with resistance at 48.5-48.8, suggesting a cautious approach to trading in this range [3] Oil Market - The oil market is showing signs of upward movement, with a focus on the upper channel resistance at 64.3, indicating a potential for continued gains [6]
Watch These Key Netflix Price Levels as Stock Drops After Disappointing Earnings
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-22 12:46
Core Insights - Netflix's third-quarter earnings fell short of Wall Street expectations, leading to a decline in share price during premarket trading [1][8] - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $5.87, significantly lower than the anticipated $6.92, impacted by an unplanned charge related to a dispute with Brazilian tax authorities [2] - Revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $11.51 billion, aligning with analyst estimates, and Netflix forecasts another 17% growth in the fourth quarter driven by membership growth, pricing adjustments, and increased ad revenue [2] Stock Performance - Netflix shares dropped over 7% to around $1,150 in premarket trading, despite a 40% increase since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 15% gain [3] - The stock is currently consolidating within a descending triangle pattern, indicating a potential bearish trend following the disappointing earnings report [4] Technical Analysis - Key support levels to monitor include approximately $1,065, which may attract buying interest, and a further downside target around $942, where investors may look for buying opportunities [6][7] - Critical overhead resistance levels to watch during potential recovery efforts are near $1,265 and $1,341 [8]