投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 煤炭 2025 年 06 月 08 日 焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤 加速探底或近底部—行业点评报告》 -2025.6.4 《煤价企稳和环渤海港去库，否极泰 来 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.6.2 《煤炭供给最重要变量：疆煤受价降 而减量—行业点评报告》-2025.5.30 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周港口价格微跌，截至 6 月 6 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 609 元/吨，环比下跌 2 元/吨，跌幅 0.33%。从供给端来 看，国内生产方面，截至 6 月 1 日，晋陕蒙三省 442 家煤矿开工率 81.3%，环比下 跌 0.3 个百分点，其中山西省煤 ...

报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价 拐点就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 本文摘自：2025年6月5日发布的 迎接6月基本面拐点 黄 涛 ，资格证书编号： S0880515090001 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压力。 上周疆煤外运及内蒙的 铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损 压力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓，侧面反映两大产地压力。我们 认为 4 月全国产量环比大幅度降低 5000 万吨至 3.9 亿吨，供给在 65 ...

中国煤炭工业协会召开会议：推动资源要素高效配置 促进煤炭供需动态平衡 智通财经6月6日电，中国煤炭工业协会和中国煤炭运销协会定于7月10日-11日召开"2025年夏季全国煤 炭交易会"。本次会议主题为，"推动资源要素高效配置，促进煤炭供需动态平衡"。认真落实党中央、 国务院决策部署，不断增强煤炭产业链供应链的生存力、竞争力、发展力、持续力，保持经济平稳健康 发展和社会大局稳定。 ...

资金抢筹，煤炭ETF（515220）连续10日净流入超3.7亿元，关注全市场唯一煤炭ETF投资机会。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 民生证券表示，6月5日，生态环境部正式发布《2024中国生态环境状况公报》。初步核算，2024年一次 能源生产总量为49.8亿吨标准煤，比2023年增长4.6%。初步核算，2024年能源消费总量59.6亿吨标准 煤，同比增长4.3%；其中，煤炭消费增长1.7%，原油消费下降1.2%，天然气消费增长7.3%，电力消费 增长6.8%。煤炭消费量占能源消费总量比重为53.2%，比2023年下降1.6个百分点；天然气、水电、核 电、风电、太阳能发电等清洁能源消费量占能源消费总量比重为28.6%，比2023年上升2.2个百分点。 煤炭ETF（代码：515220）是全市场唯一煤炭ETF，跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（代码：3999 ...

迎接 6 月基本面拐点 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 王楠瑀(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515090001 | S0880123060041 | 本报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价拐点 就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模 亏损压力。上周疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下 降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压 力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓， 侧面反映两大产地压力。我们认为 4 月全国产量 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国信证券指出，2025年4月国内供应明显减量，全国原煤产量同比增加约1800万吨，但环比减少约5100 万吨；截至5月25日，5月样本煤矿累计产量同比小幅增长，环比微降。国内生产方面，2024年1-4月， 全国原煤产量累计完成15.8亿吨，同比增加6.6%；其中4月份，全国原煤产量完成3.9亿吨，同比增加 3.8%，环比-11.6%；分产区看，主产地产量环比均有所减少，但仅内蒙古产量同比减少。 煤炭ETF（代码：515220）是全市场唯一煤炭ETF，跟踪的是中证煤炭指数（代码：399998），该指数 由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开采、煤炭加工及销售等业务的上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。作为具有明显行业特征和周期性的指数， 中证煤炭指数能够较好地体现煤炭板块在资本市场中的运行态势。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证煤炭ETF联接C（008280），国泰中证煤炭ETF联接A （008279）。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.6% to close at 23,654, while the Hang Seng Tech Index also increased by 0.6% to 5,219. The trading volume reached HKD 212.6 billion, indicating active trading, although net inflows from the Stock Connect decreased by about 10% to HKD 3.5 billion [1] - The market showed a "stronger gets stronger" trend, with funds continuing to favor high-certainty stocks. New consumption leaders like Pop Mart (9992 HK) and Mao Geping (1318 HK) reached new highs, reflecting market premium recognition for scarce consumer brands [1] Macro Dynamics - In the U.S., job vacancies rose to 7.391 million in April, an increase of 191,000 from March, indicating resilience in the labor market. The ratio of job openings to job seekers remained at 1.03, consistent with 2019 levels [2] - Despite a rise in layoffs to 1.79 million, the layoff rate remains relatively low, suggesting that companies are hesitant to reduce staff amid a moderately slowing economy [2] Industry Dynamics Automotive Sector - The Chinese government is promoting the "2025 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside" initiative, with 124 models included in the directory, including vehicles from BYD and Geely. The automotive sector in Hong Kong showed stable performance, with most stocks fluctuating between -1% and +2% [3] Consumer Sector - The new consumption and IP concept sectors continue to attract capital. Companies like Blucor (325 HK) have entered the Mexican market, showcasing their product matrix at exhibitions. Blucor and Pop Mart saw respective increases of 17% and 14% over the past five trading days [3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 3.2%, driven by recent licensing agreements between domestic pharmaceutical companies and global firms, boosting confidence in the export of innovative drugs. Companies like Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) reported promising clinical data at the ASCO conference, leading to a 14.1% surge in their stock price [4] Energy Sector - The energy sector, particularly nuclear and renewable energy stocks, saw significant gains. China General Nuclear Power (1164 HK) rose by 28.3% after signing a uranium sales framework agreement, benefiting from rising uranium prices due to increased demand from U.S. nuclear energy initiatives [5][9] Company-Specific Insights Huaneng International (902 HK) - The company reported an 8.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, benefiting from lower fuel costs and increased electricity demand during the summer [11] China General Nuclear Power (1164 HK) - The company is expected to benefit from a new uranium sales agreement, with a pricing mechanism favoring current market prices, enhancing its position amid rising uranium demand [11] Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) - The company experienced a 21.9% decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, primarily due to a slowdown in its core product sales. However, it anticipates a gradual recovery in sales starting from Q2 2025, supported by new licensing agreements and increased sales of oncology drugs [13][14][15]

国公開貨 焦煤:反弹还是反转? 国投期货研究院 黑色金属首席分析师 曹颖Z0012043 日期: 20250604 IIII 当前市场的不变vs变化 全国煤焦总库存估算 万吨 2023 2024 ·2025 5000 30000 数据来源: mysteel,煤炭资源网 国技期货 2 ● 焦煤的基本面并没有发生根本性扭转，依然面对着下游需求存减产担忧，各环节拒绝补库，产端和进口端依 然供应依然保持过剩态势，这都从累库的趋势中得到持续验证。 ● 但是，边际来看的确出现一些变化，其中市场最为关注的是蒙古总理被罢免这一事件的后续影响。 ⚫ 房地产主要指标同比增速 30大中城市商品房成交面积（周度，万平米） 3 国内焦煤供应也存在缩减现象 /////// ● 虽然大部分煤矿仍未亏损至现金流成本支撑位，但部分民营矿的确存在小幅减产动作。再叠加六月安全生 产月，国有大矿存在一定顶仓减产现象，部分煤矿因事故而停产整顿。 · 汾渭88家样本煤矿焦原煤日产 88家样本焦煤矿原煤+精煤产量 ·ms全国独立焦企焦炭日产(右,万吨/日) 万吨 73 140 2022 =2024 =2023 ·2025 71 135 1500 130 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月04日 行业研究 · 行业月报 煤炭 · 煤炭 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：刘孟峦 010-88005312 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 证券分析师：胡瑞阳 0755-81982908 huruiyang@guosen.com.cn S0980523060002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢深300指数。5月临近需求旺季，煤炭板块底部反弹。5月中信煤炭行业收涨3.6%，沪深300指数收涨1.8%，跑赢沪深300指数1.7个百分点。 2.供给：2025年4月国内供应明显减量，全国原煤产量同比增加约1800万吨，但环比减少约5100万吨；截至5月25日，5月样本煤矿累计产量同比小幅增长，环比 微降。国内生产方面，2024年1-4月，全国原煤产量累计完成15.8亿吨，同比增加6.6%；其中4月份，全国原煤产量完成3.9亿吨，同比增加3.8%，环比-11.6%； 分产区看，主产地产量环比均有所减少，但仅内蒙古产量同比减少。4月煤炭进口量环比-2.3%，同比-16.4%， ...