Group 1 - The government plans to set the fiscal deficit rate at around 4% for the year [2] - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is proposed, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year [4] - A special bond of 500 billion yuan is planned to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks [5] Group 2 - Local government special bonds are proposed to be arranged at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling debts owed to enterprises [7] - The report emphasizes optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, and to support technology innovation, green development, and consumption [9] Group 3 - A special long-term bond of 300 billion yuan is planned to support the replacement of consumer goods [10] - The government aims to strengthen the application of new technologies and products, promoting the safe and healthy development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [14] Group 4 - A mechanism for future industry investment growth is to be established, focusing on sectors like biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G [16] - The government aims to accelerate the high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains and enhance the reconstruction of industrial foundations [18] Group 5 - The continuous promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" actions aims to better integrate digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages, supporting the widespread application of large models and the development of smart connected new energy vehicles, AI smartphones, and intelligent manufacturing equipment [19][20] Group 6 - The government will implement actions to standardize enterprise-related law enforcement, focusing on rectifying irregular charges, fines, inspections, and closures [25] - The commitment to maintain openness regardless of external changes, steadily expanding institutional openness and orderly expanding autonomous and unilateral openness to promote reform and development [27] Group 7 - Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, with policies adjusted based on local conditions to release housing demand potential [29]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at around 5% with a previous year's growth of 5% [1] - The grain production has reached a new milestone of 1.4 trillion jin [1] - Urban employment increased by 12.56 million jobs [1] - The annual production of new energy vehicles surpassed 13 million units [1] Key Targets for the Year - The GDP growth target is set at approximately 5% [1] - Urban employment is expected to exceed 12 million [1] - Consumer price index is anticipated to rise by around 2% [1] - Grain production is targeted at around 1.4 trillion jin [1] - Energy consumption per unit of GDP is aimed to decrease by 3% [1] Fiscal and Investment Plans - The fiscal deficit rate is planned at around 4%, with a deficit scale increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year [1] - The total new government debt scale is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan [1] - Special long-term bonds are planned for issuance at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan [1] Consumption and Economic Development - A special action plan to boost consumption is to be implemented, including 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods [1] - New industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy are to be promoted for healthy development [1] - Focus on digital transformation in manufacturing and development of future industries like quantum technology and 6G [1] Education and Employment - Expansion of high school education capacity and gradual implementation of free preschool education [1] - Measures to enhance employment opportunities for college graduates and support for flexible employment [1] Housing and Urban Development - Continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing conditions [1] - Promotion of urban renewal and renovation of old urban areas [1] Social Welfare and Healthcare - Increase in basic pension standards for urban and rural residents by 20 yuan [1] - Enhancement of healthcare funding with an increase in per capita financial subsidies for medical insurance and public health services [1]

整体而言，中信证券认为四季度以来的政策对于稳定金融风险有直接作用，两会期间上述政策大幅超预 期可能性不大，但政策"不确定"走向"确定"，因此预计银行股仍将延续平稳向上走势。 政策面看，市场关注两会可能的超预期政策，预计财政金融方面关注发行特别国债对银行注资、利率和 准备金率政策等方面。 人民财讯3月3日电，中信证券研报表示，市场面看，上周银行板块走势平稳，波动率小于其他行业，市 场结构性行情快速演绎下，银行板块走势相对稳定。 ...

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...

【笔记20241224— 3万亿的特别国 债 （-路透称"明年特别国债规模3万亿"-股市上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 近期30Y-10Y国债利差持续走阔，可能的原因：一是随着30Y绝对水平不断降低，保险配置动力明显减弱；二是央妈反复喊话后，省联社可能加强了对农 商行投资超长债的指导；三是924之后权益类资金对冲需求大幅下降。 今日小作文乱飞，内容真正超预期的并不多，但市场反应较大，可能是在"预期你的预期"： 1、明天是MLF续作日，如果降准了，可能会有止盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ 2、下周就跨年了，基金年末冲量后年初可能有赎回，叠加年初银行可能止盈兑现浮盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ -------------------------- 央行今日公开市场开展641亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日3554亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2913亿元。 上午资金面宽松，午后略有收敛，尾盘再度转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...