// 今日关注 // 1、特朗普再次猛烈批评鲍威尔，敦促美联储降息 2、英伟达将调整对华芯片出口 3、沃尔玛涨价预告"惹怒"特朗普 4、段永平、李录最新持仓曝光，苹果、谷歌遭大举减持 5、硅料价格五周连跌，传六大硅料巨头欲筹700亿元基金收储提价 // 中国债券预警 // 1、广州医药集团原党委书记、董事长李楚源严重违纪违法被"双开" 广东省纪委监委对广州医药集团有限公司原党委书记、董事长李楚源严重违纪违法问题进行了立案审查 调查，决定给予李楚源开除党籍处分；由广东省监委给予其开除公职处分；终止其广州市第十二次党代 会代表资格；收缴其违纪违法所得；按规定撤销其全国五一劳动奖章、广东省五一劳动奖章、广东省劳 动模范等荣誉称号；将其涉嫌犯罪问题移送检察机关依法审查起诉，所涉财物一并移送。 2、浙江省盐业集团有限公司原党委书记、董事长蒋移祥接受调查 浙江省盐业集团有限公司原党委书记、董事长蒋移祥涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受浙江省纪委监委驻 省国资委纪检监察组纪律审查和武义县监委监察调查。 1、英伟达将调整对华芯片出口 3、方圆地产：下属公司涉及诉讼，法定代表人被限制高消费 广州市方圆房地产发展有限公司公告，下属公司 ...

Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Period**: January to April 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - **Sales Performance**: Poly Developments achieved sales of 877 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but still ranked first in the industry [3] - **Core City Sales**: Sales in core cities accounted for 91% of total sales, up from 90% in 2024. The sales contribution from core cities and new projects was significant, with new projects accounting for 64% of sales [3][20] - **Market Trends**: The market experienced a slight rebound followed by a decline, with visitor numbers dropping by 16% year-on-year. However, the conversion rate improved, and total transactions remained stable compared to the previous year [7] Financial Performance - **Cost of Funds**: The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities was approximately 2.8%, a decrease of 12 basis points year-on-year. The comprehensive cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell below 3% for the first time, currently at 2.96%, down 21 basis points [6] - **Investment Confidence**: The company has set aside an investment quota of 100 billion yuan for 2025, expressing confidence in achieving its annual targets [5] Land Acquisition and Development - **Project Expansion**: In the first four months of 2025, Poly Developments expanded 15 projects covering 1.46 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 114%, with an investment amount of 30.8 billion yuan, up 315% [2][4] - **Land Bank**: As of the end of 2024, the company had approximately 52.8 million square meters of undeveloped land, with plans to address some through land storage policies [15] - **Equity Ratio**: The company maintained a high equity ratio in land acquisitions, reflecting confidence in market prospects and financial stability [8] Profitability and Margins - **Profit Margins**: The company aims for a pre-tax profit margin of no less than 15% on new land acquisitions. The overall gross margin is expected to exceed 20% if the pre-tax profit margin is achieved [10] - **Future Projections**: The settlement gross margin for 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [12] Strategic Measures - **Inventory Management**: The company employs a sales-driven production strategy, ensuring that completed but unsold properties are managed effectively to maintain cash flow and sales prices [13] - **Response to Market Conditions**: The company is actively engaging with local governments to leverage policies that support land storage and project development, particularly in lower-tier cities [16] Financing and Capital Structure - **Convertible Bonds**: Poly Developments has received approval for a convertible bond issuance, aiming to optimize its capital structure and enhance risk resistance [21] - **Future Financing Plans**: The company plans to continue capital operations in line with policy opportunities, although no new product plans have been disclosed yet [22] Risk Management - **Impairment Pressures**: The company recorded an impairment of 5.5 billion yuan in 2024, with future pressures dependent on market trends. Management believes that market stabilization will alleviate these pressures [17] - **Cash Flow Management**: The introduction of pilot cities for immediate sales may impact cash flow, but the company is prepared to adapt its development processes to mitigate risks [18][19] Additional Insights - **Sales Strategy**: The company is focusing on enhancing the quality and speed of project execution, particularly in key markets like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3][20] - **Market Position**: Poly Developments has a market share of 7.1% in core cities, with expectations for continued growth in market presence [20]

——房地产行业周度观点更新 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 现房销售有哪些潜在影响？ 报告要点 [Tablary] 现房销售对于房企而言最大的影响在于现金流回正时间拉长，即周转率和 IRR 明显下降，净利 率也承压，ROE 受周转率和净利率双击，下降压力会更大；现实情况可能趋于折中，土地款延 期支付、地价下降和房价传导对净利率下行有所缓释，政策配套下杠杆率也有一定对冲，ROE 降幅可能趋缓；海南经验在当前不具备普遍参考性。此外，房企短期供货能力下降，现金流也 将承压，土地财政下行压力进一步加大，但行业资金壁垒显著提高，中期对优秀房企构成利好。 综合考虑制度改革和现实约束，预计现房销售大概率仍将以试点扩容的方式渐进推广。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中央：《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》中提及，加快拆除改造 D 级危险住房；不搞大拆 大建；加快实施群众改造意愿强烈、城市资金能平衡、征 ...

Group 1 - The Central Government of China has issued a revised regulation aimed at promoting frugality and opposing waste in government operations, mandating strict adherence by all departments and regions [2][3] - The regulation emphasizes the use of domestically produced vehicles for official purposes, prioritizing new energy vehicles, and sets strict standards for hospitality expenses [3] Group 2 - In March, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, dropping to $765.4 billion, which made it the third-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, while Japan and the UK increased their holdings [4] - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds with $1.1308 trillion, while the UK has moved up to the second position [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has encouraged private equity funds to participate in mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, introducing new rules that shorten lock-up periods for these funds [6][7] - The revised regulations for major asset restructuring of listed companies include simplified review processes and innovative transaction tools, marking several firsts in regulatory adjustments [7] Group 4 - The real estate market in China is currently not ready for a nationwide rollout of the "existing house sales" model, despite some cities implementing pilot programs [8][9] - The proportion of existing house sales in the residential market has increased from 12.7% in 2020 to an expected 30.8% in 2024, indicating a significant upward trend [9] Group 5 - Notable changes in the investment landscape include the resignation of Zhang Kun from his position as Vice President at E Fund, focusing solely on investment management [10] - Nvidia's CEO has announced a strategic reevaluation of the company's approach to the Chinese market, particularly regarding the export of certain chip architectures due to U.S. government restrictions [11] Group 6 - The recent changes in public fund regulations are expected to lead to a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a focus on aligning with benchmark indices [14][20] - The introduction of floating fee rate funds marks a significant step in the public fund reform process, with expectations that these funds will become mainstream in the active equity product category [17] Group 7 - The financial sector is seeing increased attention from investors, with comparisons being drawn to the market conditions of 2014, suggesting potential for significant market movements [22] - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to maintain resilience, supported by ongoing reforms and a favorable investment environment [23][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [14]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, and market expectations have improved, although marginal downward pressure has increased since April [7]. - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [7]. - The experience from Hainan is not universally applicable in the current context, and the short-term supply capacity of real estate companies is declining, putting pressure on cash flow [3][11]. - The industry is expected to gradually promote the pilot expansion of existing home sales, considering institutional reforms and practical constraints [11]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.04% this week, with a relative excess return of -1.08% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 32 [8]. - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has decreased by 5.53%, with a relative excess return of -4.37% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 [8]. Policy Developments - The central government emphasizes financial balance in urban renewal, prohibiting large-scale demolition and illegal borrowing [9]. - Local measures in Xinyang, Henan, have implemented existing home sales for newly sold land, ensuring reasonable residential de-stocking cycles [9]. Sales Data - New home transaction area in 37 cities showed a rolling year-on-year decline of 4.1%, while second-hand home transactions in 19 cities increased by 11.6% [10]. - As of May 16, the new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while second-hand homes increased by 6.2% [10]. Current Focus - The discussion and promotion of existing home sales have gained attention again in 2023 due to delivery issues and the need for institutional reform [11]. - The impact of existing home sales on real estate companies includes extended cash flow recovery times, decreased turnover rates, and increased uncertainty and funding costs [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the gradual implementation of "existing house sales" in Xinyang, which is expected to improve the current supply-demand environment in the real estate market and enhance residents' confidence in home purchases [1] - The report suggests focusing on distressed real estate companies such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading companies maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [1] Sales Review (5.10-5.16) - The total number of monitored transactions in 32 cities reached 16,300 units, a week-on-week increase of 27.3% - Cumulative transactions for 2025 stand at 296,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% - First-tier cities recorded 5,319 units sold, a week-on-week increase of 43.6%, with a cumulative total of 85,000 units for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% - Second-tier cities saw 9,045 units sold, a week-on-week increase of 22%, with a cumulative total of 176,000 units for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% - Third-tier cities recorded 1,966 units sold, a week-on-week increase of 15.1%, with a cumulative total of 35,000 units for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [2][13] Land Supply (5.5-5.11) - The planned construction area for residential land supply in 100 cities is 2.62 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 68.33 million square meters for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16% - The average floor price for land supply in 100 cities is 4,186 CNY/sqm, with a recent four-week average of 5,983 CNY/sqm, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [3][22][24] Land Transaction (5.5-5.11) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions in 100 cities is 2.62 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 64.42 million square meters for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6% - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities is 6,877 CNY/sqm, with a week-on-week decrease of 34.5% and a year-on-year increase of 90.2% - The overall premium rate is 9.8%, with an average floor price of 8,017 CNY/sqm for 2025, and a premium rate of 14%, which is an increase of 9.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4][37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of "existing house sales" as a new model in real estate development, with pilot programs already in progress across various regions in China [1] Group 1: Current Status of Existing House Sales - At least 30 provinces and cities in China have issued documents to promote pilot programs for existing house sales, with 18 cities implementing substantial support measures [1] - The proportion of existing house sales in total residential sales has increased from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2024, marking an 18.1 percentage point rise over five years [1] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - The current real estate market conditions indicate that the timing for a comprehensive rollout of existing house sales is not yet mature [1] - Existing house sales involve a complex system that includes finance, land, and industry ecology, necessitating a cautious approach rather than a one-size-fits-all solution [1] - It is recommended to continue with local pilot programs and further refine supporting policies to gradually advance the initiative [1]

自上周个人住房公积金贷款利率宣布下调0.25个百分点以后，多个城市接连跟进落地，5年期以上首套房利率降至2.6%，多项政策给房地产市场带来积极影 响。 在上海，记者走访发现，随着住房公积金贷款利率下调，二手房成交量增长明显，根据上海市房地产交易中心数据显示，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率后的 首个周末，二手房日均网签成交量超过1000套。多家房地产中介门店的经纪人告诉记者，近期客户咨询量大幅度上升，看房意愿也在持续走高。 上海浦东新区某房地产经纪机构总监 陈辉：政策出来之后和政策出来之前对比的话，浏览量上浮了20%左右，带看量上浮了30%左右。 业内人士表示，新政对二手房市场有不小的刺激作用，特别是"以小换大"的改善型需求，近期增加明显。 上海某房屋交易服务中心高级经理 黄海建：这一周的成交，数据增长是非常显著的。置换的一些客户，他可能把一两套房子去换一套大房子，就是置换链 的一个打通。 不仅是二手房市场表现抢眼，新房市场的活跃度也不断提升。在北京，近期不少新房项目的咨询量、线下到访量也出现明显增大，部分项目到访量较新政前 增长了近一倍。最新数据显示，上周北京新建商品房网签1394套，成交面积约10.78万平方米 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese real estate market, highlighting the shift towards a new normal of selling existing homes and the need for improved supporting systems [4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The existing home sales model is expected to become a new norm in China's commodity housing sales, indicating a significant shift in the real estate industry [4]. - In April, the market saw a year-on-year increase in sales rates due to new regulations, with May anticipated to continue a weak recovery trend as developers focus on quality over quantity [5]. - The scale of special bond storage has approached 400 billion, with a plan to recover 6,565 hectares of residential land, aiming to accelerate inventory reduction in the housing market by 54% by 2025 [6]. Group 2: Land and Development - The land acquisition by city investment companies is characterized by fewer transactions and a focus on specific areas, with opportunities for government construction projects in first-tier cities [7]. - The land supply and demand scale has decreased week-on-week, with significant land sales in Shanghai and Xi'an, where high-priced residential land has been sold at a premium [13]. Group 3: Corporate Actions - The restructuring plan for Jinke has been approved, indicating a rapid acceleration in debt restructuring among real estate companies [8]. - Companies are adopting cautious investment strategies and restructuring their management frameworks to enhance efficiency and focus on inventory reduction [10]. Group 4: Industry Standards - The approval of the "Comprehensive Capability Evaluation Standard for Construction Enterprises" marks a significant step towards the standardization and normalization of construction enterprises in the industry [14]. Group 5: Recognition and Reports - The release of the annual customer research report by China Jinmao and the recognition of outstanding projects based on innovation and design highlight the ongoing efforts to enhance brand value and project quality in the real estate sector [15][17].

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