Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level, waiting for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The two - meal sector is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On December 24, the strength and weakness of the vegetable oil sector were further differentiated. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil were weak. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,562 lots in positions; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 7,700 yuan/ton, down 0.23% day - on - day, with an increase of 119 lots in positions. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8,488 yuan/ton, up 0.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 37,874 lots in positions; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 8,364 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 360 lots in positions. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 1.50% day - on - day, with an increase of 7,936 lots in positions; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 8,938 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 35 lots in positions [1] Important Information - International oil prices closed slightly lower on December 24, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% to settle at 58.35 dollars per barrel. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17%. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the same period last month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased slightly. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December, and the energy minister said the mandatory B50 addition plan will start in the second half of 2026. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3178 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.76%; edible palm oil inventory was 617,800 tons, a weekly increase of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.08%; rapeseed oil inventory was 358,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.29%. - As of December 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 98 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 437.03 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, the basis was 570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.85 [1][2] Market Logic - External market: Before the Christmas holiday in the US market, capital adjustment drove up the price of US soybean oil. Although international crude oil prices rose, the overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and the lack of enthusiasm for purchases by major consumer countries made the rebound of Malaysian palm oil show signs of weakness. - Domestic market: For domestic soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the high crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills coexisted with long and short factors, and traders were cautious in stocking up. For palm oil, the strong performance of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders planned to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquired about the price of crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the rise in the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract followed suit. As the Christmas holiday approached, capital mainly left the market, and the market focused on whether the 05 contract could effectively break through the pressure level of 9,000 yuan. In the spot market, the transaction of genetically modified and non - genetically modified rapeseed oil in East China was good, and the basis quotation was also supported, showing a slight increase of 30 - 50 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For new vegetable oil orders, conduct intraday trading and maintain a short - term bearish view in the long - term. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 8,400, support level 7,400. - Y2609: Pressure level 8,040, support level 7,370. - P2605: Pressure level 8,626, support level 7,940. - P2609: Pressure level 8,578, support level 7,880. - OI2605: Pressure level 9,200, support level 8,250. - OI2609: Pressure level 9,300, support level 8,400. - Arbitrage: None [2] Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On December 24, the market sentiment was cautious, and the two - meal prices mainly oscillated at a low level. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2,728 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,121 lots in positions; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 2,850 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 4,938 lots in positions. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day - on - day, with an increase of 10,459 lots in positions; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2,400 yuan/ton, down 0.12% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,092 lots in positions [2] Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 4% from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. - As of December 11, the sowing of the 2025/2026 season's soybeans in Brazil was 97% complete, up from 94% a week ago. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/2026 season's soybean production in Brazil may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons. - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 90.6%. - Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons. - US farmers welcomed the latest 12 - billion - dollar agricultural aid plan announced by President Trump but generally believed that this amount was far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of 34 - 44 billion dollars this year. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons compared to last week, 591,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 785,900 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 109,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a decrease of 184,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 28.36%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, 81,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 5,000 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, the same as last week, and the contract volume was also 0 tons, the same as last week. - On December 19, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 550,143.732 tons of imported soybeans from the State Reserve, and the actual transaction volume was 179,701.674 tons, with a transaction rate of 32.66% and an average transaction price of 3,751 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 22,000 tons; the basis price of soybean meal was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 141,000 tons; the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 372 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,426 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis price of rapeseed meal was 2,469 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The US soybean January futures crushing profit was - 481 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 79 yuan/ton; the Brazilian soybean February futures crushing profit was - 99 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 246 yuan/ton. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 3,908 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,577 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment was 481 dollars/ton, and the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 440 dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed for January shipment was 489 dollars/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed for January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2][3] Market Logic - External market: Capital adjustment before Christmas led to a rebound in US soybean prices. In the spot market, most oil mill quotes remained stable, with some local areas reducing prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading was stable, lacking obvious driving factors. Under the high - inventory pressure, traders made rolling replenishments, and feed mills maintained safety inventories and made rigid purchases. They were rational about Spring Festival stocking. Currently, the spot supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China is relatively tight, so the basis quotation is expected to remain stable with a slight increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. In the short term, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal is expected to have strong support at the bottom and mainly adjust through range - bound oscillations [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 2,858, support level 2,660. - M2607: Pressure level 2,840, support level 2,559. - M2609: Pressure level 2,920, support level 2,717. - RM2605: Pressure level 2,444, support level 2,220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2,429, support level 2,200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2,448, support level 2,274. - Arbitrage: None [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the shipping and palm oil industries, focusing on market dynamics, supply chain challenges, and future projections for 2026. Shipping Industry Insights Market Performance - The shipping market in 2025 is expected to experience significant weakness, with freight rates declining compared to 2024. Despite a roundabout route via the Cape of Good Hope, the supply-demand fundamentals remain loose, leading to a soft market overall [2][4]. Key Influencing Factors - Major factors affecting the shipping market include the restructuring of three major alliances, the impact of tariff trade wars, and global economic pressures that lead shippers to prefer lower-cost transport services [3][9]. Alliance Adjustments - The MSC, Premier, and Ocean alliances dominate the Northwest European and Mediterranean routes. Adjustments in fleet deployment, such as MSC reallocating vessels to more profitable regions, have significantly impacted supply-side variables [5][6]. Future Capacity Projections - By 2026, the delivery of new 24,000 TEU Panama-type vessels is not expected to significantly increase capacity on key routes, as existing services already meet demand [6][14]. Strategies for Suez Canal Operations - Shipping companies are employing various strategies to adapt to the reopening of the Suez Canal, including extending routes and entering emerging markets to absorb excess capacity [7][8]. Demand Trends - The demand outlook for trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes is mixed, with a projected decline in U.S. imports due to internal economic pressures rather than trade disputes. Conversely, European demand for Chinese goods is expected to remain strong, leading to record export volumes [9][10][11]. Palm Oil Industry Insights Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is influenced by production expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia, with potential declines in output due to aging plantations and adverse weather conditions [18][22]. Price Projections - Price ranges for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in 2026 are projected to be between 8,000-10,500 CNY/ton for palm oil, 7,500-9,000 CNY/ton for soybean oil, and 8,000-10,300 CNY/ton for rapeseed oil. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended due to current market sentiment [35]. Supply Challenges - Malaysia's palm oil production faces challenges from aging trees and low replanting rates, with the actual replanting rate significantly below recommended levels. This is expected to hinder production growth in 2026 [20][22]. Global Biodiesel Market - The global biodiesel market has seen a decline in 2025, with U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil's policy changes being focal points. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. biodiesel policies is expected to impact market sentiment and pricing [25][26]. Additional Insights Economic Factors - The economic conditions in Europe and the U.S. are expected to influence global trade and shipping, with Europe still recovering from the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. facing internal economic pressures affecting import levels [12][13]. Long-term Trends - The shipping industry is anticipated to remain stable with no significant increase in the number of routes, while the palm oil market may see a tightening supply situation due to various production challenges [14][24]. Regulatory Impacts - The UDR regulations in Europe will pose compliance challenges for South American exports, particularly for palm oil and soybeans, affecting trade dynamics [53][54]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the shipping and palm oil industries as they prepare for the upcoming year.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market lacks a bullish foundation due to expected high South American yields, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, trading in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include potential weakening support for biodiesel blending policies from the Trump administration after China's soybean purchases, improved rainfall in Brazil as the rainy season returns and the sowing season nears completion, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Bullish factors are China's expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by February 2026 and over 25 million tons annually for the next three years, initial signs of drought in Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production cuts due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined, closing at 1049.25 cents per bushel, a drop of 27.5 cents per bushel. Concerns about US soybean demand arose as China's 12 - million - ton purchase commitment is now expected to be fulfilled by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025. Additionally, the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated, and the full return of the rainy season in Brazil has alleviated concerns, with the current drought in Argentina having limited impact. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and progress on biodiesel policies [8][10]. - The price of US soybean meal fell this week, closing at $297.6 per short ton, a decrease of $4.9 per short ton. The delay in China's purchase commitment from the end of 2025 to the end of February 2026 has put pressure on the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal [11]. - The price of US soybean oil declined slightly this week, closing at 47.9 cents per pound, a drop of 2.17 cents per pound. Market concerns about slowing export demand for US soybeans and soybean oil, the postponed announcement of biodiesel blending targets, and the decline in crude oil prices driving down palm oil and soybean oil prices contributed to this drop [13]. - As of December 12, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.5 per bushel, a weekly decrease of $0.31 [16]. - On December 19, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped to 116.36 Brazilian reals per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 142.94 Brazilian reals per bag [20][22]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 68%, up from 65% last week [25]. - In Brazil, except for the southern region, precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks. In Mato Grosso, rainfall is expected to be normal in the coming week but low in the second week. In Paraná, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, while in Rio Grande do Sul, precipitation will be high. In Argentina, precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly above normal in the next two weeks (the southern drought - affected areas have limited planting), and temperatures will be basically normal [27][32][35][36][38][41]. - As of the week ending December 13, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week and compared to 96.8% in the same period last year [43]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [46]. - On November 28, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 803,500 tons, up from 763,400 tons last week. On December 12, the weekly export inspection volume was 795,600 tons, down from 1.025 million tons last week. The net sales for this year were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.32 million tons last week (in the week of November 28). The net sales for next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China in the week of December 12 was 202,000 tons, up from 119,800 tons last week [48][50][52][54][56]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.163, remaining in the La Niña range [59]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil is expected to rise next year. The planting costs of soybeans in both Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [61][63][65][66]. - As of December 9, the net long position in soybeans was 211,600 contracts, down from 249,200 contracts last week. The net short position in soybean oil was 10,300 contracts, up from 1,900 contracts last week. The net long position in soybean meal was 22,700 contracts, down from 51,200 contracts last week [67][69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 8 - 12, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend with a significant price drop, a substantial increase in the main contract's open interest, and a firm spot price, resulting in a high basis. The market has large long - short differences. The short logic is the high domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil and the weak performance of related international palm oil markets, while the long logic is the potential for futures price repair due to the high spot premium and potential pre - holiday stocking demand. The reduced expectation of the US biodiesel policy's positive impact also weakened the upward driving force [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend. The main contract y2605 closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton from last week. The trading volume was 1,125,831 lots, and the open interest was 592,514 lots, an increase of 74,932 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 1,764,400 lots, and the total open interest was 827,587 lots, an increase of 9,865 lots compared to last week [5]. - **Related Market**: The total trading volume of soybean oil options was 174,652 lots, the open interest was 93,424 lots, an increase of 5,154 lots, and the number of exercised options was 5 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Situation - As of Friday of the current week, the spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,480 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2605 was 8,016 yuan/ton, and the basis was 464 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On December 11, commodity funds net - sold 3,500 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 1,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 2,500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, and net - bought 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil market is expected to enter a high - volatility stage. The core contradiction is how to narrow the gap between the "extremely high basis" and the "high - inventory reality" through price movements. The possibility of the spot price falling towards the futures price to repair the basis is greater. Attention should be paid to the start and intensity of pre - holiday stocking, international crude oil prices, the US RVO final plan, South American soybean产区 weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and inventory [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats. The market is in wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the market and further news on Indonesia's B50. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8300 yuan/ton. As the pressure in palm oil - producing areas gradually weakens, its cost - effectiveness increases, and we should wait for future improvement opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly, but the inventory reached the highest level in 6 years. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 plan persists, and there is a lack of upward momentum in quotes [1]. - The US biodiesel policy remains unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed, and the role of future policies in boosting the market is questionable [1]. - There is no positive trend in China - Canada talks, and there is an expectation of tight supply of rapeseed products in the future [1]. - Although the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory, with relatively limited pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range volatile adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term [16]. - **Price Range**: The P2605 fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton, Y2605 in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, and OI2605 in the range of 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Adopt a short - term weak unilateral thinking. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current basis is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads are expected to weaken [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean oil is forecasted to be in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as various spreads [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1140,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and up 180,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil was 340,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and down 80,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil was 650,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [24]. - **Negative Information**: The US EPA is expected to issue the final rule on the renewable fuel standard in the first quarter of 2026. The palm oil export volume of Malaysia from December 1 - 15 decreased compared with the same period last month [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have been stable, with soybean oil transactions increasing month - on - month, and rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions decreasing slightly month - on - month [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the re - allocation decision of US small refinery exemptions, progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, and weather information in producing areas [28][29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The overall oil and fat market was weak this week. There was a lack of upward driving force, and the US biodiesel policy was postponed again. The demand in the global oil and fat market was in doubt. The capital trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were all bearish [30]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to be weak this week [32]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, which became shallower this week [32]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm all rebounded slightly this week [52]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was weakly volatile this week. There was a lack of positive factors, and the MPOB report on palm oil was bearish. The US energy policy guidance was unclear, and the CBOT soybean oil management fund's position decreased slightly [54]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly this week, and the cost of producing biofuel from palm oil increased slightly. The BOHO spread also rebounded slightly, but the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit has changed slightly, and domestic buying has started after the basis turned positive [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not alleviated [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: With the basis turning positive, domestic buyers have started to place orders, but the transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. In the year - end production - reduction stage in producing areas, the willingness to sell is limited, and domestic orders are not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of raw materials in December will decline, and the crushing volume may decrease, but the overall supply is still relatively loose [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory will continue to decrease. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the future supply will still be tight [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils and fats, the overall terminal demand remains weak [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish allocation for rapeseed products in 2026 [4][72] Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, with a significant year-on-year increase in production. However, the initial inventory of major exporting countries is low, and the supply pressure may be postponed. [4][18][19] - The import demand for global rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the significant recovery of EU rapeseed production, uncertain China-Canada economic and trade relations, and uncertain US biodiesel policies, which will increase the export pressure on major exporting countries, especially Canada. [4][72] - In 2026, the supply of rapeseed products in China is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers after major events. There is a risk of an increase in imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in the future. [4][72] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures Trend Review Rapeseed Meal - In the first stage (January - end of March 2025), it followed soybean meal and was stronger than soybean meal. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed meal and the expected supply shortage in March pushed up the price, but the impact was short-lived. [9] - In the second stage (early April - end of August 2025), it followed soybean meal in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Concerns about trade policies and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans affected the price. The anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also had a short-term impact. [10] - In the third stage (early September 2025), it followed soybean meal in a weak and volatile trend. The increase in domestic soybean meal inventory and the recovery of soybean purchases from the US affected the price. [11] Rapeseed Oil - In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was the weakest among the three major oils due to sufficient supply and no event-driven factors. [14] - In the second stage (mid-March - early June 2025), it was relatively strong due to the expected supply tightening after the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and the increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices. [14] - In the third stage (mid-June - early September 2025), it followed the overall oil sector in an upward trend, driven by the optimistic outlook for global biodiesel consumption and the expected supply shortage of palm oil. [15] - In the fourth stage (since mid-September 2025), it followed the oil sector in a downward trend, but the uncertainty of supply and the strong basis supported its performance. [15] 2. Main Supply and Demand Contradictions Analysis of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed Supply: Significant Increase in Production, Supply Pressure May Be Postponed - The global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 6.27 million tons year-on-year, with the EU's production increasing by more than 3 million tons. The initial inventory is expected to decrease by 2.12 million tons, and the effective supply will increase by 4.15 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. [18][19] - **Canada**: The initial inventory in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The new rapeseed export is not ideal at the beginning of the season, and the export is expected to decrease by at least 2.5 million tons year-on-year. The domestic crushing volume is expected to remain high, but the inventory pressure may gradually appear from December to the end of March. [23][25][29] - **Australia**: The production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.233 million tons, an increase of 837,000 tons year-on-year. The export is expected to increase from 5 - 5.1 million tons to 5.8 - 5.9 million tons. China may account for about 50% of its exports. [32][33] - **Russia and Ukraine**: The rapeseed production in the Black Sea region reached a record high in the 2025/26 season. Russia's rapeseed production continues to increase, and its rapeseed oil and rapeseed exports may increase. Ukraine's rapeseed production has decreased for two consecutive years, and its rapeseed export has decreased this year. [38][41][43] 2.2 Global Rapeseed Product Demand - The global demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic, mainly due to the uncertainty of trade demand. Attention should be paid to the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations and the final plan and details of the US biodiesel policy. [45] - **EU**: The rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season has significantly recovered, and the rapeseed import demand is expected to decrease year-on-year. The absolute price and relative cost-effectiveness of rapeseed oil will determine the import demand. The import volume is expected to be 5.7 - 6.1 million tons. [46][48][54] - **US**: The import demand for rapeseed oil in 2026 may increase slightly. It is related to the US biodiesel policy, and the current policy details are uncertain. [56] - **China**: The import of rapeseed products in 2026 is uncertain, and the supply may turn loose. The import of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase, and the import of Canadian rapeseed depends on the progress of China-Canada economic and trade negotiations. The import of rapeseed oil is expected to increase steadily, and the import of rapeseed meal may increase significantly. [62] 3. Summary of Main Contradictions and Strategy Outlook - The global rapeseed supply is expected to turn loose in the 2025/26 season, and the supply pressure will gradually appear in 2026. The import demand is not optimistic, which will increase the pressure on major exporting countries. [71][72] - The supply of rapeseed products in China in 2026 is uncertain due to policy influence. Attention should be paid to key time nodes and market drivers. There is a risk of an increase in imports. [72] - It is recommended to pay attention to the bearish allocation opportunities for rapeseed products in 2026. [72]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧 ---2026 年美豆期货分析展望 报告导读： 从新周期的定价框架来看，全球大豆价格的驱动逻辑已从"单一主产种植利润主导"转向"多极因 子协同共振"，核心驱动维度呈现三大转变：一是供给端从"美豆单一供给"转向"全球主产区产能互 补"，南美天气扰动、美豆种植进度、中美大豆贸易流量等多区域供需变量形成联动；二是流通端从 "CBOT 定价"转向"区域分化"，巴西物流效率、巴拿马运河通行成本、各国贸易关税政策等成为价格 区域传导的关键变量；三是需求端从"饲用需求单一拉动"转向"多场景需求分化"，生物柴油政策驱动 的工业需求、饲用消费的区域结构变化、高蛋白大豆的定制化需求等，赋予价格更强的结构性波动特 征。在此框架下，美豆已从全球大豆价格的"制定者"退化为"参与者"，其国内供需仅为全球多因子体 系中的重要变量而非决定性因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 谢义钦 从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com | 1. 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the planting area of new - season US soybeans decreased significantly year - on - year. There is a high possibility of further reducing the yield per unit in January, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of 3 - 5 million tons in production. The CBOT soybean price is expected to have limited downside, with a support level at 1000 - 1050 cents per bushel, and the price center is expected to rise to 1200 - 1300 cents per bushel. South American soybean premiums are expected to be weak [2][210][246]. - In the domestic market, domestic soybean production is expected to increase again in the 2025/26 season. The price of soybean No. 1 is likely to rise in the first quarter of 2026, with an upper limit of 4300 - 4350 yuan per ton, and may be weak in the second and third quarters, with a lower limit of 3750 - 3800 yuan per ton. The market for soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to be strong first and then weak in 2026 [4][220][247]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Part 1: Market Review - **2025 CBOT Soybean Price Bottomed out and Rose**: The long - term cycle of US soybean prices is about 4 - 5 years. In 2025, the price was affected by trade frictions, soybean production, and biodiesel policies. The non - commercial net position of CBOT soybeans turned positive in the second quarter, and the speculative market maintained a bullish sentiment [20][24][27]. - **2025 Chinese Crushed Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Centers Rose**: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal showed a volatile upward trend. The market changed from "strong reality + weak expectation" before May to "weak reality + strong expectation" after May, mainly affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, trade relations, and biodiesel policies [31]. - **2025 Chinese Soybean Oil Price Rose**: The main - contract price of soybean oil on the DCE found support at 7500 yuan per ton and stabilized above 8000 yuan per ton. It was affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, geopolitical conflicts, and biodiesel policies [43]. - **2025 Chinese Edible Soybean Market Price Strengthened**: The futures price of soybean No. 1 on the DCE ended a three - year decline. The increase was mainly due to the active acquisition by middle - stream traders and the support of state - owned grain reserves. There was a structural supply shortage of high - protein soybeans [47]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation Analysis - **Global Oilseed Market Supply is Sufficient**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production increased to 685 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, it is expected to reach 690 million tons. The growth rate of soybean production has slowed down, while the demand growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand situation has eased [52]. - **US Soybean Supply - Demand is First Loose and Then Tight**: - **Production Decline**: The planting area of new - season US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, and the yield per unit may also decline. The production is expected to be between 114 - 116 million tons, a decrease of 3 - 5 million tons compared to the previous year [66]. - **Demand Analysis**: US soybean demand mainly comes from crushing and exports. Crushing consumption is affected by biodiesel policies, and exports depend on China's purchases. In recent years, crushing consumption has been strong, while export demand has decreased [76]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: Due to the decline in production and the increase in crushing consumption, the inventory - consumption ratio of new - season US soybeans may decrease, supporting the upward movement of the CBOT soybean price center in 2026 [93]. - **South American Soybean Premiums Declined**: In 2025, South American soybeans had a good harvest. Brazilian soybean premiums were strong before October but declined later due to Sino - US trade negotiations. The sowing of new - season South American soybeans is going smoothly, and premiums are expected to remain under pressure [94][95][96]. Part 3: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Situation - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Continuous Production Increase**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic soybean production is expected to approach 21 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the sowing area in Heilongjiang. The planting cost has decreased, and there are various subsidies [132]. - **Consumption Needs Improvement**: About 90% of domestic soybeans are used for food processing. The demand for domestic non - genetically modified soybeans has room for growth, especially in the crushing sector. The consumption of domestic soybeans is affected by policies and the market [133]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: In 2025, domestic soybeans had a good harvest, and the supply was sufficient. The price had a strong support at the bottom but lacked the driving force for continuous upward movement [141]. - **Crushed Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Increased Import Cost**: In 2025, the import cost of soybeans in China increased, mainly due to the rise in the CBOT soybean price, the increase in South American soybean premiums, and the change in the exchange rate. The crushing profit first increased and then decreased [143]. - **Increased Bean Imports and Arrivals**: In 2025, the import and arrival of soybeans in China increased, with a record high in October. The imports of soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small and had little impact on the market [158][165][167]. - **Beans Inventory Remained at a High Level**: In 2025, the inventory of the domestic crushed soybean industry chain first decreased and then increased. Currently, the inventory of crushed soybeans is at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of soybean oil is around the average level. The inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth quarter [169][170][171]. - **Terminal Demand Situation**: - **Soybean Meal Consumption is Expected to Turn from Strong to Weak**: In 2025, the feed production in China increased significantly. However, as the aquaculture industry falls into losses, the production capacity and inventory of pigs and poultry are expected to decline in 2026, and feed consumption is expected to decrease. The substitution of rapeseed meal and wheat for soybean meal has both positive and negative effects, but overall, the feed consumption of soybean meal in 2025 is expected to continue to increase, and it is estimated to decrease to 76.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 2.57% [178][179][180]. - **Soybean Oil Consumption is Weak**: In the 2024/25 season, the edible consumption of oils in China decreased. Since May 2025, the downstream inventory of oils has been inactive. Although the price of soybean oil futures has risen, the overall consumption of oils is still weak, but the consumption share of soybean oil is increasing [198]. Part 4: International Soybean Market Logic and US Soybean Price Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the impact of the decline in US soybean production, trade relations, and biodiesel policies on the CBOT soybean price, and the expected weak performance of South American soybean premiums [210]. Part 5: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Balance and Market Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the prediction of the price trend of domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026, and the impact of supply and demand factors [220][221][247]. Part 6: Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Basis Trend is Expected to be Strong First and Then Weak**: The basis of domestic soybean meal in 2025 was weak. In 2026, the basis is expected to be strong in the first quarter and decline after April [230]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spread is Expected to Remain Low**: Due to the tense Sino - Canadian trade relations and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain low in 2026 [235]. - **Bean Oil - Meal Ratio is Bearish in the Medium and Long Term**: The supply - side logics of soybean meal and soybean oil are similar, but the demand - side performance is different. The bean oil - meal ratio is expected to rise first and then fall, and short - term long and medium - to - long - term short operations are recommended [238]. Part 7: Main Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Comprehensive Judgment and Operational Strategy**: The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, providing specific price ranges and operational suggestions for the price trends of CBOT soybeans, domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026 [246][247][248]. - **Futures and Options Operational Strategy**: In 2026, the soybean meal market is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day. The price of soybean oil is expected to be high first and then low. It is recommended to take long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day [249]. - **Seasonal Trend of Bean Index**: Relevant figures are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. Part 8: Related Stocks - The report lists the price changes of related stocks in 2025, including companies in the feed, soybean planting and trading, aquaculture, and oil processing industries [273].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月14日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 2025年国内油脂走势一波三折，品种间走势分化明显。在产量及生柴题材驱动下，棕榈油引领了多数时 间的油脂涨跌；豆油以稳为主，涨跌均不显眼；菜油则在进口大幅收紧的背景下走势偏强势且独立。 尽管当前油脂整体表现不佳，我们仍对其2026年走势持乐观态度。结合当前时点及潜在交易题材，油脂 市场或正临近转折点，市场分歧最大的棕榈油预计仍是关键所在。近期市场对马棕大幅增产的恐慌打压 棕榈油连破支撑，但可能将面临市场预期的再度反转。2025年东南亚棕榈油超预期的增产面临天时地利 人和，在前期降雨不佳、树龄趋于老化、印尼大量罚没种植园的背景下，恐难在2026年复刻。 生物柴油需求增长则是另一潜在驱动。美国生物柴油政 ...