Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on July 23, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product sectors including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - The U.S. soybean night session declined on Tuesday. Good North American weather limits the upside, but with slightly low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supporting demand, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot prices were mixed on Tuesday, with transactions being average and提货 reaching 190,000 tons, and downstream inventory days exceeding last year's level. The domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons last week and is expected to be 2.2351 million tons this week [2] Transaction Strategy - The external soybean import cost is oscillating due to low valuation, EPA policy support, and single - source supply from Brazil from September to January, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream提货, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the soybean procurement from September to January has cost support due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Group 3: Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, from June 1 to 15 are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% month - on - month, and from June 1 to 20 are expected to decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% month - on - month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 to 10, 17.06% from July 1 to 15, and 6.19% from July 1 to 20 in 2025. As of July 15, 2025, India's total vegetable oil inventory at ports has risen to 855,679 metric tons, a surge of 18% in just half a month compared to June 30 [6] Core View - The domestic palm oil oscillated on Tuesday. With a positive sentiment in the commodity market, the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils may start to decline. The EPA policy, the long - term B50 policy expectation, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operation center of oils, but the Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Transaction Strategy - The recent optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has pushed the palm oil price to continue rising. The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, high palm oil production in producing areas, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It should be viewed as oscillating [9] Group 4: Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6,010 - 6,090 yuan/ton, down 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,820 - 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,180 - 6,220 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 187 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 459,100 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.0983 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] Transaction Strategy - China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [12] Group 5: Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the September contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,330 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,105 yuan/ton. According to the latest weekly crop growth report data from USDA, as of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, rising for the fourth consecutive week and reaching the highest level in the same period in four years; the squaring rate was 71%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [14] Transaction Strategy - Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting positive expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the recent downstream consumption is average. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be increased from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Group 6: Eggs Important Information - National egg prices were mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.04 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.11 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin. The remaining egg inventory is not large, the demand in the sales areas has slightly improved, and dealers' purchasing enthusiasm is okay. The egg market trading is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to mostly rise and a few remain stable [17][18] Transaction Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and igniting market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and the increase was higher than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - month contracts to flee. However, long - sellers lack confidence under the high premium, and the price will mainly oscillate in the short term, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and the expectation of continuous increase in theoretical supply, continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large open interest [19] Group 7: Pigs Important Information - Domestic pig prices generally fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.05 yuan to 14.48 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. Farmers are actively selling pigs, and the market supply is sufficient. High temperatures and rainfall have suppressed pork demand. Today's pig prices may be stable or decline [21] Transaction Strategy - In the short term, the increase in basic supply is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After digesting the selling pressure in the middle of the month, the spot price may rise again in August, but it is difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support at the valuation end due to the discount. For the September contract, focus on buying on dips. Starting from the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, the inventory accumulation period will gradually begin. The replenishment of散户 pens and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. However, the futures price has already factored in the expectation in advance, and the premium for far - month contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as November, wait for short - selling or hedging opportunities after the price rebounds, and avoid excessive short - selling [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting factors affecting palm oil prices, specifically weak exports versus supportive biodiesel policies [1] - Palm oil has ended its consecutive decline and is experiencing a rebound, indicating potential market recovery [1] - A critical resistance level at 4260 may serve as a dividing line for bullish and bearish market sentiments [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the substantial improvement of Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, and trading strategies should be adjusted according to different price levels and policy developments [3][5]. - The palm oil market is affected by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high production in palm - producing areas. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. - The cotton market has potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August, and the downstream consumption is average [15]. - The egg market is in a state of short - term oscillation. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [18]. - The pig market has limited short - term supply increase, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean night session declined, while the US soybean oil rose. The good old - crop sales and biodiesel policy support demand, but the good North American weather limits the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased slightly, with good trading volume. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is close to 1 million tons, and the port soybean inventory is around 8 million tons. The buying of ships after September is relatively scarce. The US soybean production area has less rainfall and higher temperatures in the next two weeks, and the Brazilian premium has stabilized after a slight decline [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The external soybean import cost fluctuates, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July increased compared to the previous period. The total inventory of vegetable oils in Indian ports increased significantly in half a month. The domestic palm oil declined on Monday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils began to decline. The EPA policy is beneficial, but there are still negative factors in the oil market. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market promotes the continuous rise of palm oil. The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the production in palm - producing areas is at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price of sugar in different regions had different changes. The import volume of sugar in June 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative import volume from January to June decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined slightly. The spot price of cotton increased slightly. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased. The cotton import volume in June decreased significantly year - on - year [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price is mostly stable, with individual slight adjustments. The market trading is stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures lead to a decrease in egg - laying rates, and the supply pressure is relieved. The short - term market oscillates, lacking a clear trend. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large positions [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price rose and fell in different regions yesterday. The demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to rise, fall, or remain stable today [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply increase is limited, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying at low prices. For off - season contracts such as 11, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and be aware of the risks of price fluctuations [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For soybean meal, the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all positive. In the short - term, it's expected to be strong, in the medium - term, it's also strong, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that due to trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly. The core logic is that the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by trade concerns, the forward purchase rhythm is slow, so the supply pressure is not transmitted to the far - month, and the forward supply is tight. With high refinery operating rates, the refinery's soybean meal inventory has increased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the negative basis persists. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are dominated by supply expectations, with futures stronger than spot and stronger than US soybeans, and the rebound continues [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy boosts future biodiesel demand, which supports palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil follows the international market. With the return of funds due to energy demand, the price gets support. However, as international oil prices fall again, the palm oil price oscillates weakly in the short - term [8]. Other Considerations - For soybean meal 2509, factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, refinery operating rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the US soybeans is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. The palm oil market is volatile, and the sugar, cotton, egg, and pig markets each have their own supply - demand and price characteristics and trading outlooks [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybeans fell in the night session last Friday. The US soybean oil rose, and recent US agricultural trade agreements boosted US soybeans. However, good weather in North America limited the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot prices increased slightly over the weekend. The oil mill's soybean meal transactions were okay, and downstream inventory days exceeded last year's level. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small upward fluctuations due to a single supply source [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports had different trends in June. In July, the palm oil yield increased, and the output increased. The overall commodity sentiment was positive last Friday, and foreign capital's positions in the three major oils continued to hit new highs. EPA policies are bullish, but there are still bearish factors in the palm oil market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is volatile. Although there is a possibility of price increases in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production increase expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [10]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different trends. In June 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, but from January to June, the imports decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [13]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. The spot price of cotton increased. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and China's cotton imports decreased significantly year - on - year [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential bearish factor [16]. Egg - **Market Situation**: Egg prices generally rose over the weekend, but the upward momentum was insufficient. High - temperature weather affected egg production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply. The peak - season demand started, and the turnover in each link accelerated [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contracts are volatile, and for the post - festival contracts after September, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [20]. Pig - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rose over the weekend. The previous continuous decline in pig prices led to strong price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the supply decreased. However, in some areas of East China, the supply increased, and the demand was insufficient [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the spot price may rise again in August, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying on dips. For off - season contracts such as 11, wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [23].

Core Insights - Indonesia's biodiesel policy is positively impacting palm oil futures, leading to a significant price increase over the past three weeks [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Palm oil futures have experienced a continuous rise for three consecutive weeks, indicating strong market momentum [1] - The bullish trend in palm oil prices suggests potential for further upward movement, raising questions about the extent of this growth [1]

Group 1 - The domestic palm oil futures market showed positive performance, with the main contract opening at 8800.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 8966.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.01% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased by 5.3% to 6.2% from July 1 to July 15 [1] - Shipping costs for palm oil from Malaysia or Indonesia to Rotterdam were reported at 70.9 USD/ton, a slight increase of 0.2 USD (0.28%) from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Indonesia plans to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40%, significantly boosting palm oil consumption for biodiesel [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) raised the reference price for crude palm oil in August and increased the export tax from 8.5% to 9% [2] - Despite a decrease in palm oil exports from Malaysia in July, the low tariff window is expected to improve export performance in the future [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and market sentiment is positive [4]. - Soybean oil: It follows the upward trend of the oil and fat sector but is relatively weak among varieties [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,796 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,890 yuan/ton with a 1.07% increase. Trading volume is 567,537 lots with an increase of 74,126 lots, and open interest is 538,144 lots with an increase of 36,067 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,126 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Trading volume is 282,385 lots with a decrease of 11,523 lots, and open interest is 536,560 lots with an increase of 7,383 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,440 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; closing price (night session) is 9,496 yuan/ton with a 0.59% increase. Trading volume is 339,311 lots with an increase of 99,278 lots, and open interest is 233,995 lots with a decrease of 4,687 lots [2]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 4,212 ringgit/ton with a 0.36% increase; closing price (night session) is 4,273 ringgit/ton with a 2.22% increase [2]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 56.15 cents/pound with a 2.69% increase [2]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,770 yuan/ton with no price change [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,260 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,460 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price is 1,040 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 188 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 644 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 724 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread is 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread is 42 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 66 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. Indonesia has raised the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40% in 2025 to reduce dependence on imported diesel [3]. - Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil in August is 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 dollars/ton), up significantly from July. The export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [5]. - According to Afrinvest, global palm oil prices are expected to rise significantly, reaching 1,200 dollars/ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current 900 - dollar price, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and growing global demand driven by biofuel policies [5]. - Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, with relevant research expected to be completed by the end of the year. Whether to implement B50 in 2026 is undetermined [5]. - As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of US soybean - growing areas and 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 9% and 12% in the previous week respectively [6]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) has raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to 109 million tons and soybean processing volume to 57.8 million tons [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1; soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is facing a situation of mixed long and short factors. The oil market is expected to have an upward trend in the fourth quarter but is currently subject to multiple constraints. The sugar market may continue to decline. The cotton market has potential downside risks. The egg market is in a bottom - building phase with limited short - term rebound space. The pig market has limited downside space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressure in the medium term [3][4][9][12][15][18][21] Summary by Category Soybean/Materials - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans continued to rebound, driven by the rise in US soybean oil and favorable US agricultural trade agreements. However, good North American weather limited the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the rise of US soybeans, with spot prices increasing by 40 yuan/ton. The soybean import cost remained stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations and new supply - side variables [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is fluctuating, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed mixed trends. Indonesia is studying the possibility of increasing the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. China and Australia are close to reaching a rapeseed purchase agreement. On Thursday, domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the overall commodity sentiment was positive [6][7] - **Market Situation**: The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply have raised the annual operating center of oils. However, there are still negative factors as Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation and multiple constraints suggest a volatile outlook [9] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The London ICE sugar contract had a certain amount of delivery. Domestic sugar spot prices were mostly stable, with some processing sugar mills lowering their prices [11] - **Trading Strategy**: China is in a good window for sugar imports, and there may be increased import pressure in the second half of the year. The current market situation is contrary to the theoretical price difference trend, and if the external market does not rebound significantly, the sugar price may continue to decline [12] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. China's textile and clothing exports in June 2025 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased year - on - year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Egg - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, with stable supply, low inventory, and increased purchasing intention from downstream traders [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Due to limited capacity clearance, the seasonal rebound of egg prices has been delayed. The current spot price is in a bottom - building phase, but the short - term rebound space is limited. For the near - term contracts, time is not favorable for long positions, and for the far - term contracts, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18] Pig - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices generally fell on the previous day, with sufficient supply from farmers and insufficient market digestion [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot pig price has rebounded, indicating a seasonal reduction in supply. The second - fattening space still exists, which provides some support. In the short term, there may be room for long positions, but in the medium term, supply delay and hedging pressure need to be considered [21]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.