Report Date - The report is dated October 31, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and trending weaker. There's potential to fall below 4,200 ringgit and further to 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit due to concerns of slowing exports and increasing production. After the current decline and risk release from the MPOB report, prices may stabilize and rebound. Starting from November, decreasing production and inventory will support price increases [3] - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend. After breaking below the 8,800 yuan support, there's pressure to fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. Following the rebound of Malaysian palm oil above 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also strengthen. A near - weak, far - strong market view is maintained [3] Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher but closed lower, dragged down by the falling BMD palm oil and the decline of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is abundant and demand is weak. There's a possibility that the January contract may fall to 8,000 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rebound, Dalian soybean oil will be boosted; otherwise, the January contract may break below the integer mark [4] Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - The factory - set price of soybean meal has increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, while the near - month basis has declined. Due to falling pig prices and continuous losses in the breeding industry, downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Traders are cautious. If US soybeans are imported at the basic tariff, it will improve the supply in the first quarter of next year, but the key lies in the release of oil mill profit margins. After the price correction, there's still a chance for the price to rise [17] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 is - 46 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2; BMD palm oil主力 is 4,211 ringgit/ton, down 1.15% [5][8] - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 is 184 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12; CBOT soybean oil主力 is 49.58 cents/pound, down 1.06% [5][14] Oilseed Price and Spread - Soybean meal: The closing price of bean粕01 is 3,021 with a daily increase of 27 and a rise of 0.9%; the difference between M01 - 05 is 195 with a daily increase of 29 [18][19] - Rapeseed meal: The closing price of菜粕01 is 2,388, down 13 and - 0.54%; the difference between RM01 - 05 is 66 with a daily increase of 23 [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Analysis and Price Outlook Industry Overview - The palm oil industry is primarily dominated by Malaysia and Indonesia, which together account for approximately 80% of global production. [1][2] - The aging of palm trees in Malaysia is expected to lead to a reduction in annual production by 40,000 to 560,000 tons over the next decade. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity**: Both Malaysia and Indonesia are nearing peak production levels, with Malaysia producing around 20 million tons and Indonesia about 55 million tons annually. [2] - **Biodiesel Policies**: Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B20, B30, B40) have significantly increased domestic palm oil consumption from 10 million tons to over 20 million tons annually. However, the B50 plan faces challenges due to traditional engine compatibility. [1][2] - **Market Dynamics**: The palm oil price is influenced by seasonal production, policy changes, and raw material costs. Long-term supply-demand fundamentals suggest an overall upward price trend, with biodiesel being the main source of demand growth. [1][5] - **Price Forecasts**: - In Q4 2025, palm oil prices are expected to be weak due to insufficient production cuts and weakened consumption expectations from delayed biodiesel policies. [6][12] - In Q1 2026, prices are anticipated to rise due to seasonal production cuts and the implementation of biodiesel policies, potentially reaching higher levels. [7][12] Additional Important Insights - **Weather Impact**: Weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña significantly affect palm oil production. The last El Niño in 2023 caused drought conditions that may impact future production. [8][11] - **Current Market Conditions**: The market is currently experiencing high inventory levels due to preemptive purchasing by China and India, leading to a lack of demand growth. [12][10] - **International Price Dynamics**: The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is currently negative but is expected to improve as market conditions stabilize. [13] - **Biodiesel Market Challenges**: The B40 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is operational but faces financial losses, and the B50 plan may encounter execution challenges. [14][15] - **US Policy Impact**: The new EPA policy in the US is expected to boost biodiesel demand, which could positively influence palm oil prices. [16] - **Global Market Trends**: The palm oil market is likely to be influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the US-China trade war, which has affected the supply of competing oils like soybean oil. [20][21] Conclusion The palm oil industry is at a critical juncture, with production challenges and evolving demand dynamics driven by biodiesel policies and international market conditions. Future price movements will be closely tied to these factors, alongside weather impacts and geopolitical developments.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to close at 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to close at 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to close at 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to close at 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 1.4 to close at 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.22% [4][7] - Palm oil oscillated and declined during the week mainly due to the month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production. High - frequency data showed that the month - on - month increase in export demand narrowed, and demand weakened after the Indian Diwali festival. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to build up inventory in October, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Additionally, the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy cooled, and its implementation is expected to be postponed, resulting in limited driving forces. Meanwhile, the US sanctions on Russia led to a sharp rebound in oil prices at a low level, providing some support for oils and fats [4][7] - Macroscopically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, easing trade sentiment; the growth rate of the US core CPI in September slowed down, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year. The US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level. The US sanctions on Russia led to supply concerns, and oil prices rose significantly at a low level on a weekly basis. Fundamentally, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to continue to increase, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Coupled with the cooling of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy theme and the possible postponement of its implementation, the Dalian palm oil oscillated and declined. As negative factors are gradually priced in, attention should be paid to the supply - demand changes in the producing areas after entering the off - season. Recently, the strengthening of oil prices has slowed down the decline of palm oil. It is expected that palm oil will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4][11] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the DCE palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the DCE soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the CZCE rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 250 to 9,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 150 to 8,370 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang decreased by 120 to 10,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From October 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with increases of 4.54% in Peninsular Malaysia, 21.99% in Sabah, 16.69% in Sarawak, and 20.45% in Borneo [8] - Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 were expected to be 1,283,814 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were expected to be 793,571 tons, a 41.75% increase compared to the same period last month [8][9] - Price forecast: MPOC stated that entering 2026, the price of Malaysian crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton. Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen pointed out that Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 is likely to be postponed to 2027 due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil - diesel price spread. It is expected that the price of crude palm oil will hover between 4,300 and 4,500 ringgit/ton by the end of the year [9] - Inventory: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3507 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 298,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 145,000 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 13,300 tons, compared with 11,800 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 1,406 tons, compared with 847 tons in the previous week [10] Industry News - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply for biodiesel production. Implementing B50 will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel per year, compared with 15.6 million kiloliters for B40 [12][13] - It is estimated that global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high, with the total imports of eight major oils expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the increase in imports is the expected increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons, more than twice that of the previous year. The biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil have strong demand. Traditional major exporters such as India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US are expected to reduce their vegetable oil exports by 2.2 million tons. If Indonesia raises the blending requirement to 50%, it will significantly reduce the available palm oil for export, increasing the demand for soybean oil as a substitute [14] - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production. The available supply for export will be 22 million tons or less. The global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as the available export supply of soybean oil in the US and Brazil is expected to decrease significantly from 2.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 41% decrease [15] Relevant Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, import profits, and inventory data of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils [16][18][20][22][24][26][30][32][33][34][38][40][42][44][45][47][48][50][52][56][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the soybean meal market, South American soybean sowing will fully commence in November, with potential weather - related speculation. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, but the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. US soybean prices depend on export improvement and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. Domestic soybean meal supply may decline in November, and inventory may decrease steadily, boosting the basis. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases after the Sino - US talks are crucial for the soybean meal market [2][58][133]. - In the oil market, the US soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors such as cost, oil - meal arbitrage, industrial consumption, and bio - diesel policies, remaining range - bound. In November, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, and Malaysia's high palm oil inventory pressure may ease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low, but the B50 bio - diesel policy is still unclear. The domestic oil market faces an oversupply situation, with inventory likely to increase steadily. However, there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound in November [3][131][134]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, influenced by factors such as the USDA quarterly inventory report, Sino - US trade relations, and the NOPA report. Domestic soybean meal markets fluctuated lower due to reduced supply concerns and weak terminal demand. International oils were range - bound, with US soybean oil showing weakness and Malaysian palm oil being relatively strong [7][8]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Sowing - As of October 16, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the previous week and last year but lower than two years ago. With increased rainfall, the sowing progress has accelerated significantly. In November, Brazilian soybean sowing will fully start, with potential weather - related speculation in the northeast and south. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. If US soybean exports improve, Brazilian soybean premiums may decline [13][18][23]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Demand - The US government shutdown has affected the release of USDA reports. As of October 21, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. US soybean exports are far lower than last year, and the possibility of a significant reduction in exports is high. Mississippi River transportation bottlenecks and uncertain bio - diesel policies also affect US soybean demand. If the USDA report is released in November, US soybean yield and exports are expected to be adjusted downward, and inventory may increase [24][29][42]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - As of October 21, the procurement of imported soybeans for different shipping dates showed different progress, with relatively limited procurement in December and January. Domestic soybean inventory is currently abundant but may start to decline in December. Domestic oil mills' operating rates may remain high in November but may decline compared to the previous period. Domestic soybean meal demand has increased slightly in 2025, but the decline in pig prices may affect demand. Domestic soybean meal inventory may decline steadily in November, and the basis may stop falling and rise slightly. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases are crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [44][49][58]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - Since mid - October, US soybean oil has declined from its high due to the unwinding of oil - meal arbitrage. In November, the oil - meal ratio may decline. The US biodiesel policy has not been finalized, and the market's demand expectations for US soybean oil have decreased. In November, US soybean oil will be affected by multiple factors and will continue to fluctuate within a range [60][62][67]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil production reduction cycle will start in November. In October, production increased, but exports faced resistance. Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy is still uncertain, which will affect the Malaysian palm oil market. Malaysian palm oil inventory may start to decline in November, and there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound [74][82][91]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In November, domestic oil demand is expected to decline steadily due to the delayed Spring Festival. Supply may decrease after November but still exceeds demand, and inventory may continue to increase. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Palm oil inventory may increase, and the basis may be under pressure. Rapeseed oil supply may increase in November but is subject to policy risks. The current inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil may continue, and the oil - meal ratio may be adjusted in the short term [94][99][131]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - For soybean meal, maintain an interval - oscillation mindset, focusing on low - buying and high - selling. For oils, try to buy at the lower limit of the range or buy on dips after the market stabilizes in November [135].

1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: October 24, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] 2. Fats and Oils 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The three major oils continued to decline this week, with palm oil having the largest decline of over 2%, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being the strongest. The overall oils sector remained in a volatile adjustment phase, searching for support below technically, while the basis quotation had little fluctuation [8]. - **Macro Factors**: China-US trade negotiations and Canada-China trade discussions related to agriculture are under way. Continued attention should be paid to specific agricultural issues in these negotiations [9]. - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month. Exports increased by 2.5% - 3.4%. Production remained strong, and Indian demand was expected to slow after Diwali, pressuring prices. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy provided bottom support [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Global soybean supply was abundant, domestic soybean oil inventory was at a historical high and slow to decline, but narrowing crushing margins were not conducive to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With capital outflow from the market, bullish sentiment weakened. Good Canadian rapeseed harvests and falling futures prices affected the domestic market. However, domestic supply remained uncertain due to unchanged China-Canada trade policies [10]. 2.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of October 23, 2025, the price of first-grade soybean oil in East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan week-on-week; third-grade rapeseed oil was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan week-on-week; and 24-degree palm oil in South China was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan week-on-week [12]. - **Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.5568 million tons, down 37,600 tons week-on-week, a 1.45% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.4171 million tons, down 45,600 tons; palm oil inventory was 529,800 tons, up 26,600 tons; and rapeseed oil inventory was 610,000 tons, down 18,500 tons [25]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 42nd week, the average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 63.89%, up 17.33% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 2.389 million tons, up 658,400 tons. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 7.1882 million tons, up from last week. The estimated arrival volume in October was about 8.807 million tons [28][29]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The MPOC expected crude palm oil prices to remain above 4,400 ringgit for the rest of the year. From October 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month according to MPOA data. If Indonesia implemented the B50 policy, its export supply would be reduced [37][43]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week of September 23, 2025, commodity funds held a net long position of -18,233 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, a decrease of 32,680 contracts from the previous week. In CBOT soybean oil futures and options, the net long position was 8,046 contracts, a decrease of 26,973 contracts [48]. 3. Live Pigs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The national average live pig slaughter price fluctuated strongly this week. The price increased in the middle and later part of the week due to increased consumption, increased low - price segmentation by northern slaughterhouses, increased reluctance to sell, and reduced large - pig inventory. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head was - 138 yuan, up 50.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 378.6 yuan, up 53.6 yuan week - on - week [52]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 rebounded and closed at 12,200 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.48% increase, with a basis of - 570 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The average price of 50 - kg binary sows was 1,546 yuan/head this week, down 1 yuan from last week. According to official data, the theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to change slightly in the coming months. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms decreased by 0.84% month - on - month in September. Overall, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly until next June [61][62][63]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The average price of 15 - kg piglets was 255 yuan/head this week, down 10 yuan from last week. As of September, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.42% month - on - month. The theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly from October to next March [77][78]. - **Short - Term Supply**: As of September, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in September. The proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in mid - October [79][80][81]. - **Current Supply**: In September, the actual slaughter completion rate of the supply side was 96.5%, and the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.90 kg, down 0.35 kg week - on - week [85][86]. - **Import Supply**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as last month and 20,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 11.24% decrease compared with the same period last year [91]. - **Demand**: In mid - October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased, but then cooled as the price rose. The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increased by 3.36% week - on - week [93][95]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly in the short and long term, but the pressure has eased. On the demand side, secondary fattening and terminal consumption are expected to improve, but the overall increase may be limited. The spot price is expected to continue to rebound, while the futures price may have limited upward space [100]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors are advised to wait and see; breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [102]. 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: This week, corn prices continued to decline seasonally, but the decline slowed. Northeast corn prices rose, North China prices first rose and then fell, and the selling area prices increased [104]. - **Futures Market**: As of October 23, the Dalian main 2601 contract closed at 2,140 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 0.19% increase [105]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of the week of October 17, the northern port inventory was 1.04 million tons, up 110,000 tons week - on - week; the southern port inventory was 480,000 tons, up 93,000 tons week - on - week [109]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices continued to rise this week due to tight supply, increased demand, and policy support. As of October 23, the national average corn price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and the wheat price was 2,483 yuan/ton [110]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China imported 15.83 million tons of grain, a 12.3% increase month - on - month and a 12.5% increase year - on - year. The import volume of various grains showed different trends. The import advantage of substitute grains may weaken in the future [117][118]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.0% increase year - on - year. Hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly, so feed production is also expected to increase. As of October 23, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from last week [132][133][136]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: As of the week of October 23, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, down 7,600 tons from last week; the corn starch production was 287,700 tons, down 5,800 tons; the开机 rate was 55.62%, down 1.12%. The processing profit of starch enterprises fluctuated slightly. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased by 6.5% from last week [137][139]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 Chinese corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, but the import volume is adjusted down by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The price is expected to be stable [146][147]. 4.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, new corn is listed, the cost decreases, and the substitution advantage of wheat and imported grains weakens. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory intention is low, and deep - processing demand recovers. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price will fluctuate around the cost [148][149]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should purchase on demand; futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions on dips [149]. 5. Soybean Meal 5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **External Market**: CBOT soybeans were relatively strong due to expectations of China - US negotiations and the US - India agreement. The Brazilian new - season soybean planting progress is faster than last year [153]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly, but was weaker than the external market. The market is concerned about the outcome of China - US negotiations and the high inventory of soybean meal. Investors are advised to hold light positions or use option strategies [154]. 5.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: According to the USDA September report, new - season US soybean planting and harvest areas decreased year - on - year. There is a possibility of further downward adjustment of yield. Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [155][156][157]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of September 18, US soybean exports were at a low level in the new season, especially exports to China [163]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The soybean crushing rate and volume are expected to remain high in the short term. The soybean import volume in September was 12.869 million tons. The port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then decrease [168][169]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of October 17, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 853,400 tons, down 87,700 tons from last week. Terminal demand is relatively good [176]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of October 23, the basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 11 - 1 spread was at a low level [182]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 23, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 42,582 lots, slightly down from last week [186]. 6. Eggs 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price first decreased and then rebounded, but the upward pressure appeared on Friday. It is expected to peak and fluctuate next week [188]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price rebounded this week as the spot price stopped falling. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound and sell out - of - the - money call options [188]. 6.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was at a historical high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down in September [189]. - **Inventory Proportion**: In September, the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased, the proportion of 120 - 450 - day - old laying hens increased, and the proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased [192].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着中美贸易谈判公布时间表，豆类市场情绪发生转变。目前国内 12 月份和 1 月份船期 尚有大量采购缺口未完成，随着中美贸易关系的缓和预期渐强，美豆出口前景预期改善推动美豆期价 迎来反弹，进口大豆成本攀升预期影响市场交易情绪。随着前期空头资金出现部分获利了结，期价反 弹压力减轻，豆类期价迎来止跌反弹走势。但现货市场跟涨幅度有限，市场尚未全面回暖，短期期价 反弹空间受到制约。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean market is in a vacuum period with increased volatility due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the US government shutdown. The Malaysian palm oil data in September was below expectations, but the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia. The overall downside space for palm oil is limited. In China, the overall supply of the three major oils is sufficient in the short term, but the de - stocking expectation is strengthened after the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term trend of the oil market is weak adjustment, and the medium - term is wide - range oscillation. There are opportunities for upward movement in the future, and attention should be paid to the relationship between China and the US, China and Canada, as well as the weather, de - stocking progress in palm oil producing areas, and new news about B50 [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the market is waiting for the final policy in November. The US government shutdown has made it impossible to obtain key agricultural data, increasing the volatility of the global soybean market [1]. - Malaysian palm oil data in September was not as expected, with limited production decline and general de - stocking progress. However, the export in October rebounded. The Indonesian B40 plan is progressing slowly, and there are concerns about production due to heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the overall downside space for palm oil is limited [1]. - The overall supply of the three major oils in China is sufficient in the short term, but the raw material supply will decrease after the fourth quarter, and the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9100 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of rebound and long - position after stabilization [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: One can enter the market to go long after the stabilization of P2601 [22]. - **Base - Spread, Month - Spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Consider using cumulative option to reduce the risk of base - spread pricing. For the month - spread, P1 - 5 can be considered for reverse arbitrage. The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will widen, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil will narrow [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8700, 9700 - 10500, and 9000 - 9900 respectively. Their current volatilities and historical percentiles are also provided [23]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [23]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - The latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets are provided [24][27][28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil export from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25%. The US renewable fuel blending quantity in September exceeded that in August [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean sowing rate as of October 18 was 21.7%. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16 was 1474354 tons. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory as of October 17 increased by 5.13% week - on - week [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, and USDA and US government - related information [39][40]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: After the bearish MPOB report in September and the weakening of the macro - sentiment, the overall oil market weakened. The funds in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. The near - month term structure of oils remained steep, and the market was still in a Back structure [40][41]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was weakly oscillating. The B50 road test completion in Indonesia and the expected production reduction supported the price, but the weakening of the macro - sentiment and the unexpected inventory in Malaysia's report led to a decline in the market [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread remains high, and the BOHO spread decreased this week. The overall production cost of bio - fuels is still high [69]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The cost price improved slightly and then weakened again, and the buying sentiment of domestic traders is expected to change little [72]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - The production decline of Malaysian palm oil in September was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations, which was bearish for the market. However, with the implementation of B30 in Malaysia, the domestic demand is good. The subsequent production may decline further, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The cost is firm, the demand is weak, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [76]. - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean arrival level in October is still high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may decrease from December [76]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current inventory is high, but it will gradually de - stock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [76]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, the demand is weak, and it is expected to remain stable and weak [78].

Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Key Points 1. Market Review - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. The laboratory tests of B50 fuel were completed in August, and it will enter the road test stage. As of September 2025, the B40 policy is in full implementation. The biodiesel distribution target in 2025 is 15.6 million kiloliters, a significant increase from 13.4 million kiloliters in 2024. The government plans to implement the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Based on B35 blending requirements, the corresponding crude palm oil demand is about 12.3 million tons, and for B40 it's about 14.3 million tons. If the B50 plan is implemented in 2026, the annual demand for palm oil - based biofuels will increase to 20.1 million kiloliters. Indonesia also plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax to 15% [4]. - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of key information such as USDA monthly supply - demand reports and export sales data. The government's subsidy policy for farmers is postponed, and the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain. A new round of Sino - US trade negotiations is upcoming [4]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons [6]. Demand - As of October 17, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 4,233 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,383 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,700 tons [7]. - As of October 17, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12,920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,500 tons [7]. Inventory - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 575,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,100 tons, or 5.13% [8][20]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons, or 3.25% [8][27]. - The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, or 3.16% [8][29]. Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1,085 per ton; the CIF price was $1,106 per ton; the import cost was 9,425 yuan per ton; the hedging profit for the November shipment was - 115 yuan per ton, and for the December shipment was - 216 yuan per ton [9]. Production - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 15, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 5.76% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.86% month - on - month. From October 11 - 17, 3 new palm oil purchase vessels were added in China, 1 for November and 2 for December [10]. - As of October 17, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1616 million tons, the operating rate was 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [10][26]. Spot Price - As of October 17, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,560 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,160 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 210 yuan per ton [12]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - In September 2025, affected by rainfall, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, but the output remained at a high level. The inventory in September was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [14]. - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The domestic consumption in Malaysia was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [16]. India's Palm Oil Import - In September, due to Indian refineries switching to cheaper soybean oil, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, while soybean oil imports reached a three - year high. The palm oil import volume was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [18]. China's Palm Oil - In September, China's palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [20]. - In September, the palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [21]. - As of October 17, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 115 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton [24]. China's Soybean Oil - As of October 17, the oil mill operating rate rebounded to 59.59%, and the soybean oil output was 411,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 166,600 tons [26]. - As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,100 tons. In September, the soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [27]. China's Rapeseed Oil - As of October 17, the rapeseed oil output of coastal oil mills was 0.49 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million tons, at a low level year - on - year. The rapeseed processing rate dropped to 3.2%, and the rapeseed crushing volume dropped to 12,000 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons, and the inventory continued to decline [29]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil output increased. Palm oil exports improved in early October. In September, India's palm oil imports dropped to a four - month low. Palm oil is entering the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Indonesia's biodiesel policy supports long - term demand. China's palm oil inventory increased, and it will fluctuate in the short term [31]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean planting is going well. China has not purchased US soybeans. Due to the US government shutdown, key data is missing, and the biodiesel policy is uncertain. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September was still high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, the soybean oil output increased, and the inventory decreased but remained at a high level. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - US relations should be monitored [31]. - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada. There are expectations of improved Sino - Canadian relations, which put pressure on rapeseed oil prices. The domestic oil mill operating rate decreased, the rapeseed oil output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It will fluctuate in the short term, and Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply should be monitored [31].