每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 丨2025年6月19日星期三丨 NO.1 《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》发布 NO.3 水井坊：针对年轻消费者创新，将尝试推出38度以下产品 6月18日，水井坊召开2024年年度股东大会。针对白酒年轻化趋势，水井坊首席市场与数字商务官周苑 忻表示，公司观察到一些25岁~30岁的年轻群体消费者，在新零售OTO平台上的消费提升，所以我们很 看好这条赛道。在这些人群、渠道方面，水井坊会有持续的投入。同时，水井坊也可能会在一些产品上 进行创新，包括在一些特定区域，将尝试推出更多38度以下产品。 点评：水井坊对年轻化趋势的响应值得肯定，但其战略落地仍需跨越两大挑战。一是"认知转化"，如何 从"年轻群体在OTO平台消费提升"的表象，深入挖掘其真实需求，比如社交属性、情感共鸣等。二 是"长期投入"，年轻化非一日之功，需持续的资源投入与耐心培育。因此，年轻化不是简单的包装升级 或营销噱头，而是需要从渠道、产品到品牌调性的系统性适配。 NO.2 贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司发布招聘公告 6月18日，贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司发布2025年社会招聘公告，为满足公司发展需求，决定面向社 会公 ...

Core Insights - Moutai, once regarded as a top luxury brand and social currency in China, is experiencing a significant price decline, marking a shift in its market perception [2][10] - The decline in Moutai's price is attributed to broader economic challenges, changing consumer behavior, and regulatory impacts on the liquor industry [10][13] Group 1: Market Performance - Moutai's market price for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai, has dropped significantly since mid-May, with recent prices reported at 2020 yuan for the original 25-year Feitian [3] - Despite the price drop, Moutai reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and 11.6% respectively, indicating strong resilience [10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The perception of Moutai as a reliable investment has shifted, with many consumers now questioning the sustainability of its value, leading to a decline in demand [5][9] - Younger consumers are increasingly turning away from Moutai, associating it with outdated social practices and preferring alternatives that align with their values [15][18] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing a downturn due to economic pressures, with reduced spending on luxury items and a decline in business-related consumption [10][13] - Regulatory measures, such as bans on public drinking, have further impacted the market, leading to a collective decline in the white liquor sector [13] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Moutai is attempting to innovate and attract younger consumers through new product offerings, such as Moutai-flavored ice cream and coffee, although these initiatives have had mixed results [18][19] - The company is refocusing on its core liquor business while exploring new consumer demographics, recognizing that traditional business consumption remains crucial for growth [19]

又有酒企请了"明星"做"代言人"。 6月16日，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者注意到，港股上市公司珍酒李渡发布消息，宣布知名 青年演员姚安娜担任该公司的白酒"申遗大使"，据悉她将深度参与珍酒李渡"申遗"项目文化推广工作。 不过，相关消息对珍酒李渡资本市场表现影响有限。南都湾财社记者注意到，16日下午港股收盘，珍酒 李渡报6.11港元/股，无涨无跌。 公开资料显示，姚安娜系中国内地流行乐女歌手、影视演员，同时是知名企业家任正非的小女儿，在多 重身份的交织影响下，她在公众层面有较高的关注度，代言品牌涉及华为、阿维塔等。 据南都湾财社记者了解，虽然姚安娜在珍酒李渡的代言是"白酒申遗"这一文化类方向，但从商业角度来 看，她也被业界看作具有潜在"带货"的可能。此前，茅台集团旗下的茅台文旅宣布张艺兴成为代言人之 后，他不但带火了该公司主办的"黄小西"音乐节，同时还为茅台文旅部分产品带来了一波销量。 根据珍酒李渡早前披露的2024年报数据，该公司收入为70.7亿元，同比增长0.5%；经调整净利润16.8亿 元，同比增长3.3%。而在今年，部分券商认为受白酒调整期等影响，将加剧该近期该公司的经营挑 战。 广州一证券分析 ...

Group 1 - Wuliangye plans to accelerate the development of youth-oriented products based on market conditions, indicating a proactive approach to tap into new consumer demographics [1] - The company has already launched youth-focused products such as Wuliangye 39-degree and Qingmei liquor, and aims to expand its overseas market presence, having already engaged in activities across 13 countries and regions [1] - This strategy may enhance investor confidence in Wuliangye's innovation and growth potential, potentially leading to a reassessment of its long-term development capabilities and future profitability expectations [1] Group 2 - Xifeng Liquor is focusing on upgrading product structure, enhancing brand building, and improving market influence, particularly through the restaurant channel [2] - The company emphasizes optimizing its pricing system and increasing terminal opening rates while ensuring effective execution of market activities and managing distributor inventory [2] - These initiatives reflect a refined operational strategy that may influence market perceptions of Xifeng Liquor's future profitability and draw attention to management capabilities within the industry [2] Group 3 - Renhuai City is actively promoting the export of "sauce liquor" and enhancing regional cooperation, aiming to elevate brand and production area development [3] - The city is increasing efforts in promoting local liquor brands and enterprises, particularly in collaboration with key economic regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [3] - This push may heighten market interest in local liquor companies, especially those producing sauce liquor, and provoke thoughts on the competitive landscape and regional development models within the liquor industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of traditional Chinese liquor culture with modern youth culture through the participation of Gu Bei Chun at the 2025 Dezhou Tianqu New District Youth Music Festival, showcasing its innovative approach to attract younger consumers [1][3][7]. Group 1: Brand and Cultural Significance - Gu Bei Chun's brand is deeply rooted in the cultural heritage of Chinese liquor, emphasizing the spirit of "exploration and integration" that aligns with the festival's theme of innovation and courage [3]. - The company maintains a balance between tradition and innovation, encapsulated in its philosophy of "staying true to the essence while embracing change" [3][7]. - Gu Bei Chun's products, such as "Jin Pai Bai Nian Lao Jiao" and "Gu Bei Yuan 1983," not only attract attention for their quality but also for their cultural significance, resonating with the values of the younger generation [1][5]. Group 2: Commitment to Quality and Craftsmanship - The production process of Gu Bei Chun liquor reflects a meticulous commitment to quality, with each step from ingredient selection to fermentation and distillation being rigorously controlled [3][5]. - The brand's dedication to preserving traditional brewing techniques while innovating ensures that its products remain relevant and vibrant in the modern market [3][5]. Group 3: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Gu Bei Chun actively promotes Chinese liquor culture through various cultural events and tastings, enhancing public understanding and appreciation of the beverage [5]. - The company engages in social responsibility initiatives, supporting education, poverty alleviation, and environmental protection, which are integral to its cultural identity [5][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Gu Bei Chun aims to continue its journey of blending tradition with modernity, focusing on delivering high-quality products and enriching cultural experiences for consumers [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful brand rejuvenation of Fenjiu in the Chinese liquor market, particularly among younger consumers, as evidenced by its ranking in the CBI500 list [2][5][17] - The white liquor industry is currently facing challenges such as oversupply and high inventory, leading to a competitive landscape where only a few brands thrive [5][7][28] - Fenjiu's strategy focuses on appealing to younger consumers by emphasizing product value and innovative marketing approaches [17][21][30] Group 1: Brand Performance - Fenjiu ranks 163rd in the CBI500 list, with a significant lead among new customers aged 18-24, reflecting its successful youth-oriented strategy [2][5] - The overall white liquor industry is struggling, with only eight brands making it to the CBI500 list, indicating a stark contrast to other sectors like 3C and apparel [5][6] - Fenjiu's revenue reached 319 billion in 2023, with a projected growth to 360.11 billion in 2024, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market [17][20] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The main consumer demographic for white liquor is shifting, with younger generations increasingly becoming the primary market, accounting for 34% of consumers born between 1985-1994 and 18% for those born after 1995 [11][13] - Young consumers prioritize taste and value over brand prestige, indicating a shift in purchasing criteria [13][18] - The demand for lower-alcohol options is rising, prompting brands to expand their product lines to cater to this preference [14][20] Group 3: Marketing and Distribution Strategies - Fenjiu employs a multi-faceted marketing approach, utilizing social media and e-commerce platforms to engage younger consumers and create a complete consumption loop [21][22] - The brand has successfully launched campaigns that resonate with younger audiences, such as the "white liquor innovation" initiatives, which have garnered significant attention online [21][24] - Fenjiu's collaboration with platforms like Tmall has resulted in substantial growth, with a 76% increase in brand performance during promotional events [24][26] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Directions - The white liquor industry is entering a new cycle characterized by market segmentation and consumption upgrades, necessitating a comprehensive value redefinition [28][30] - Companies must adapt to changing consumer preferences and enhance their product offerings to remain competitive in the evolving market landscape [30][31] - The future competition will focus on flavor innovation, channel diversification, cultural relevance, and international expansion [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY [1] Core Views - The company held its 2024 annual shareholders' meeting on May 29, where management provided transparent communication regarding industry outlook, operational plans, investment, and dividend policies [1] - The company aims for long-term stable and healthy development, focusing on a flexible operational strategy and targeting younger demographics with new product lines [1][6] - The report highlights the company's strong operational quality and potential for increasing dividend rates, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024 and a dividend yield of 3.5% for 2025 [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 36,011 million CNY in 2024 to 45,917 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 12,243 million CNY in 2024 to 16,101 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 11.5% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 10.04 CNY in 2024 to 13.20 CNY in 2027 [2] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.75% and a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 19 in 2024 to 14 in 2027 [3][2] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on four main product lines: Glass Fen, Old White Fen, Qinghua 20, and Qinghua 26 + 30, with a resource allocation strategy of 1:3:3:3 [6] - The company has achieved over 65.8% of its sales from outside its home province, indicating successful national expansion [6] - The "Fen Enjoyment" channel has seen improved acceptance, with over 88.9 million active terminals, and the company plans to enhance marketing efficiency and cost-effectiveness [6]

Core Viewpoint - The top six listed liquor companies in China are transitioning to a low-speed growth model, reflecting a structural change in the industry due to external economic pressures, market transformation, and inventory adjustments [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In Q1 2023, the total revenue of large-scale liquor enterprises in China was 196.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 0.73% [3] - The production of liquor in China from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of declining production if the trend continues [1] Strategic Adjustments - Major liquor companies are adopting more pragmatic and quality-focused growth strategies, with Moutai setting a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2023 [4][6] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao emphasize stability and gradual progress in their development goals, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development [4][6] Market and Channel Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing channel operation efficiency and quality, with Yanghe implementing product optimization and inventory control measures [8][10] - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting sales targets and market policies based on consumer behavior, while Gujing Gongjiu is optimizing resource allocation for better effectiveness [10] Product Innovation - The industry is seeing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 achieving over 10 billion in revenue [18][20] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a promising opportunity for smaller enterprises [20][21] Youth Engagement - The liquor industry recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu launching targeted products and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [14][16] - The younger consumer segment (ages 25-40) accounted for 38% of liquor consumers in the first half of 2023, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences [14] Conclusion - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from rapid expansion to a focus on value creation and quality development, with both large and small enterprises needing to adapt to these changes to thrive in the evolving market landscape [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has significantly impacted the white liquor industry, particularly in reducing government-related consumption, which now accounts for less than 5% of the market [2][3]. Industry Impact - The initial market reaction to the new policy saw a short-term decline in liquor stocks, but the actual impact on sales is limited due to the high marketization of the industry and a stable brand landscape [3][4]. - The white liquor market is primarily driven by business and civilian consumption, with the industry facing challenges such as overcapacity and inventory issues rather than direct policy impacts [3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - Companies are advised to focus on civilian consumption scenarios, targeting markets such as weddings and other celebrations, while also enhancing their e-commerce strategies to reach consumers effectively [5][6]. - The shift towards e-commerce should involve breaking traditional distribution models and viewing e-commerce as a core channel rather than a supplementary one [6][7]. Consumer Trends - The industry is experiencing a trend towards younger consumers who are gravitating towards lower-alcohol beverages and new drink options, necessitating a cultural approach to engage this demographic [6][11]. - Companies should innovate in product offerings, emphasizing taste and health attributes, and consider developing smaller, more accessible products to attract younger audiences [11][12]. Internationalization Challenges - The internationalization of white liquor remains primarily within the Chinese community abroad, with future growth requiring a dual approach: leveraging national influence and adapting products to local tastes [12]. - The industry must learn from successful international beverage models, such as Japanese sake, to effectively penetrate non-Chinese markets [12]. Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is at a crossroads, with expectations for a recovery in the premium liquor segment by the end of 2025, driven by brand resilience and evolving consumer preferences [10]. - A focus on quality and innovation will be essential for the industry to navigate the current adjustment phase and achieve sustainable growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, influenced by changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions, leading to a focus on inventory reduction and product innovation among major liquor companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is in a "three-period overlap" phase, experiencing deep adjustments due to macroeconomic cycles, industry cycles, and individual company/product cycles [2]. - Major liquor companies are facing slowed or declining performance growth, with Wuliangye's 2024 revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [2]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2024 revenue and net profit grew by 3.19% and 1.71% respectively, while other companies like Shede Liquor reported significant declines in performance [2]. Group 2: Inventory Management - Major liquor companies have improved inventory levels after implementing strict supply control measures, with Wuliangye reporting low social inventory levels for its eighth-generation product [1][4]. - Wuliangye's sales performance has remained stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, and overall market prices continuing to rise [4]. - Yanghe Co. emphasized the importance of inventory reduction as a key focus moving forward, while Luzhou Laojiao reported that its channel inventory is currently manageable [5]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Guizhou Moutai has set a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - Wuliangye aims to align its revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators for 2025, moving away from previous aggressive growth targets [3]. - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 operational plan focuses on steady progress rather than aggressive growth, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards younger consumers and lower-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao noting that nearly 50% of its revenue now comes from lower-alcohol products [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to enhance the quality of its lower-alcohol products and target the "Z generation" through innovative marketing strategies [6]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on the younger consumer market, planning to accelerate the development and promotion of its lower-alcohol products [7].