Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]

人民财讯7月29日电，据建投能源（000600），近日，雄安绿碳科技服务有限公司(简称"雄安绿碳")与 北京绿色交易所有限公司(简称"北京绿交所")签署《战略合作框架协议》，标志着京雄共建国家温室气 体自愿减排交易(CCER)服务场所的正式确立。 ...

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry has shown an overall performance exceeding expectations in the mid-year reports, with companies like China National Building Material, Huaxin Cement, and Tapai Group forecasting growth of over 50% [3][1][8] - The second quarter saw a significant increase in profitability, offsetting the adverse impacts from the first quarter, supported by fiscal pre-positioning and expectations of price increases in the second half of the year [1][5] Key Companies and Performance - **China National Building Material**: Benefited from a turnaround in its core cement business, strong performance in its fiberglass segment, and reduced investment losses in the secondary market, leading to an overall performance that exceeded expectations [11][8] - **Huaxin Cement**: Achieved a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 300 million yuan in the second quarter, driven by good performance in domestic and international markets and foreign exchange gains [12][4] - **Tapai Group**: Reported over 20% growth in shipment volume in the second quarter, with a year-on-year increase in gross profit per ton of about 15 yuan [15][8] - **Tianshan Shares**: Showed significant recovery in second-quarter profitability, with a year-on-year increase of over 20 yuan per ton [11][8] Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a stronger performance in the cement sector compared to the A-share market, with several cement companies reaching new highs for the year [2][6] - The price of cement in the Yangtze River Delta region significantly increased in the second quarter, with gross profit per ton rising by 20-30 yuan year-on-year [1][8] - Despite a decline in sales data since May, the overall outlook remains positive due to fiscal pre-positioning and the potential for price increases after mid-August [5][7] Challenges and Opportunities - The cement industry faces challenges such as price volatility and seasonal adjustments, but the speed of price adjustments this year is faster than last year, reducing the likelihood of consecutive quarterly losses [9][8] - Opportunities include improved consensus within the industry, which may help elevate price levels, and enhanced profitability among key companies like China National Building Material and Tianshan Shares [9][10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to improve post-August as the off-season adjustments conclude and the likelihood of price increases rises, supported by strong mid-year performance and policy catalysts [7][1] - The overseas cement business is anticipated to perform better than last year due to reduced foreign exchange losses from small currencies [13][10] Regulatory Measures - The industry is implementing measures to combat overproduction, with current overproduction accounting for 20-30% of total capacity. Successful enforcement could raise capacity utilization to around 70% [16][17] - These measures aim to reduce excess supply, improve production efficiency, and prepare for carbon trading by establishing daily production limits for each production line [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon-inclusive mechanism is becoming an essential tool for public participation in carbon reduction, integrating into daily life and promoting a nationwide low-carbon lifestyle in China [1][2][6]. Group 1: Policy and Implementation - 27 provinces in China are actively promoting the carbon-inclusive mechanism as a key strategy for public carbon reduction, with related policies being issued [2][6]. - The carbon-inclusive mechanism quantifies the carbon reduction efforts of individuals, communities, and small enterprises, allowing them to offset their carbon emissions or participate in carbon trading [2][3]. - The mechanism is part of the broader "dual carbon" action and Beautiful China policy, with significant engagement from local governments [2][4]. Group 2: Innovative Practices - Various innovative practices are being implemented to enhance public participation, such as linking carbon credits to public transport and tourism in Harbin, which has achieved a daily carbon reduction of 764 tons [2][3]. - The "I donate 1kg of carbon for the Winter Olympics" initiative has successfully raised nearly 100,000 tons of carbon reduction through inter-city recognition of reduction efforts [2][3]. - Alipay's carbon-inclusive business has engaged 200 million participants in green travel and cultural consumption activities, demonstrating the potential for large-scale public involvement [3][4]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The carbon-inclusive mechanism shows significant market potential, but challenges remain in enhancing public awareness and participation in low-carbon behaviors [5][6]. - A report highlights the need for a well-structured policy framework to support the carbon-inclusive mechanism, emphasizing the importance of cross-departmental collaboration [6][7]. - The report suggests establishing an independent "carbon-inclusive market" to better facilitate the connection and economic benefits of the carbon-inclusive mechanism [8]. Group 4: Impact on Public Behavior - The carbon-inclusive platform has significantly increased the frequency and volume of carbon reduction actions among users, with "intervened users" reducing carbon emissions 2.58 times more than non-intervened users [7]. - Survey results indicate that 100% of respondents find the measurement features of the carbon-inclusive platform important for their low-carbon lifestyle [7]. - There is a positive correlation between income levels and participation in carbon reduction activities, with each 1 yuan increase in income leading to an increase in the number of participants and reduction actions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector aims to increase the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption to 10%, marking a significant push towards energy transition, particularly for new energy heavy trucks [2] Policy and Government Initiatives - Multiple government departments have emphasized the development of new energy heavy trucks in recent policy documents, indicating a strong policy drive to enhance market penetration [2] - The introduction of the "Coal Green Transport Pass" in Shanxi Province aims to incentivize new energy heavy truck users by providing road rights priority and toll exemptions, increasing daily operating hours from 8 to 14 [4] - The "Green Power Transport Certification" system in Inner Mongolia integrates new energy vehicle transport volume into the carbon trading market, allowing companies to earn carbon credits [4] Industry Progress and Applications - Significant progress has been made in special application scenarios for new energy heavy trucks, particularly in coal transportation, where fixed routes and lower mileage requirements align with the capabilities of these vehicles [3] - The steel industry is also pushing for the adoption of new energy heavy trucks through stringent environmental policies, with a target of 80% clean transport for major material products by 2024 [5] Challenges and Areas for Improvement - Despite achievements, there are still challenges in increasing the ownership of new energy heavy trucks, requiring a multi-faceted approach that includes policy, technology, and market development [6] - The current limitations include insufficient road rights and operational incentives for new energy heavy trucks, as many cities lack supportive policies [6] - The vehicles face challenges such as limited driving range, low operational efficiency, and short battery life, particularly in winter conditions where range can drop by 30% to 40% [7] - The lack of a robust resale value system for new energy heavy trucks is a significant barrier to user adoption, necessitating a focus on lifecycle costs from the manufacturing end [7] Future Outlook - The transition to new energy heavy trucks is seen as an inevitable trend, with the need for the commercial vehicle industry to integrate various factors such as policy, technology, safety, and profitability to accelerate adoption [7]

Core Insights - Wuhan has implemented a carbon reduction mechanism allowing residents to offset loan interest with carbon reduction amounts, marking a significant shift towards green low-carbon development [1][11] - The initiative has seen 39 residents utilize their carbon reduction amounts to offset a total of 740 yuan in loan interest [1] Group 1: Carbon Reduction Mechanism - The carbon reduction mechanism allows daily low-carbon behaviors to be converted into carbon reduction amounts that can offset interest on housing and consumer loans [2] - The program was launched in March 2023, making Wuhan the first city in China to offer such a system [1][11] Group 2: User Engagement - Young individuals, such as Wei Ying, are actively participating in the program by using public transport and shared bicycles, accumulating significant carbon reduction amounts [3][4] - Wei Ying has recorded approximately 43 kilograms of carbon reduction monthly, totaling 491 kilograms to date, which she has used for various rewards and donations [6][7] Group 3: Broader Impact - The "Wuhan Carbon Public Welfare Comprehensive Service Platform" has recorded over 827 million instances of citizen carbon reduction behavior, equating to approximately 30,000 tons of carbon reduction, similar to planting around 900,000 trees [11] - The initiative has also inspired community activities, such as the "carbon neutrality" campaign in neighborhoods, encouraging residents to use their carbon reductions to offset local government emissions [11] Group 4: Economic Benefits - The carbon trading market in Wuhan has facilitated the trading of 6.68 billion tons of carbon quotas, generating approximately 45.9 billion yuan in transaction value, establishing Wuhan as a central hub for carbon trading [11][12] - Companies like Rebohong New Energy are benefiting from carbon asset aggregation, generating significant revenue through carbon reduction initiatives [12]

Core Insights - The iron alloy industry has made significant progress in eliminating backward production capacity since 2021, but lacks key measures for substantial carbon reduction [1] - Carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes and carbon trading, are essential for controlling carbon emissions, with each having distinct advantages and limitations [2][3] Carbon Pricing Mechanisms - Carbon taxes provide stable revenue expectations for companies, promoting low-carbon technology innovation, but may not effectively control total carbon emissions [2][3] - Carbon trading offers a superior total control mechanism, with predetermined emission limits that prevent significant breaches even during economic booms [3] - The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest carbon trading market globally, demonstrating effective emission control alongside economic growth [3] Industry Challenges and Responses - The iron alloy industry faces high energy consumption pressures, with significant electricity usage per ton of products like silicon iron and manganese silicon [7] - The Chinese government has set ambitious energy efficiency targets for the iron alloy industry, requiring a substantial proportion of production to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [7] - The establishment of a green product certification standard is crucial for guiding the industry's transition to low-carbon development [7][8] Green Product Certification - The newly released green product certification standard for iron alloys focuses on the entire product lifecycle, addressing energy consumption, resource utilization, and carbon emissions [8] - If the entire industry achieves certification, it is estimated that energy consumption per product could decrease by approximately 15%, saving around 25 billion kWh annually [9] Futures Market Initiatives - The "Green Assistance" pilot project aims to leverage futures tools to support the green transition of iron alloy production, providing financial incentives for certified green product producers [10][12] - The integration of green certification with futures trading is expected to enhance market competitiveness and promote a virtuous cycle of green transformation [12][13] Pathways for Industry Transformation - The iron alloy industry must enhance low-carbon technology research and data monitoring capabilities to address existing shortcomings [14] - A composite mechanism combining carbon taxes and carbon trading could better meet the industry's complex needs, alongside coordinated green finance policies [15] - Industry leaders should take on a proactive role in driving green development, with associations refining standards and fostering a supportive ecosystem [16][17] Conclusion - The iron alloy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards green and low-carbon practices, supported by new certification standards and innovative financial tools [18] - Continued collaboration among government, market, and enterprises is essential for achieving energy savings and industrial upgrades, positioning the industry favorably in the global low-carbon competition [18]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 101 in 2025) [1] Release Date - June 16, 2025 [2] Latest Situation - Concerns about LNG supply disruptions have intensified, and excessively high energy prices may hinder industrial production [2] Auction Information - On June 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 75.36 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 1.607 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.84, and the auction revenue was 121.1 million euros [4] - On June 12, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.31, and the auction revenue was 235.98 million euros [4] Futures and Spot Information Futures - On June 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 75.94 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 29,700 lots (down 0.70), and the open interest was 32.45 (up 0.20) [2][5] Spot - On June 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 74.46 euros/ton (up 0.73%), the trading volume was 718 lots (down 4,564), the container shipping carbon cost was 12.96 US dollars/TEU, and the freight cost ratio was 0.70% [5] Investment Strategy - Short - term bearish, medium - term volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Bullish Factors - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices; the failure of the French Civaux nuclear power plant has led to an increase in natural gas and electricity prices in the European continent; the European Commission will propose new regulations on June 17, requiring energy companies to fully disclose the terms, volumes, and destinations of Russian gas contracts, aiming to ban the import of Russian gas by the end of 2027 [2] Bearish Factors - Affected by weak industrial demand and increased domestic pipeline natural gas supply, China's LNG imports have dropped significantly [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 94, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Release Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - CEA23 and CEA24 prices rebounded above 70 yuan, with 15,000 tons in the listing and 420,000 tons in the bulk market [2] - The CCER listing agreement had a trading volume of 1,100 tons and an average trading price of 89.32 yuan/ton, a 2.34% increase [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [2] - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [2][3] - The release of mandatory circulation quotas was insufficient two days ago, with potential selling pressure still existing. The market price is fluctuating at the bottom and lacks upward momentum. Considering the verification node, the trading volume is expected to rise in mid - to late June. After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged, and the bottom range in June was raised to 68 - 73 yuan/ton [5] - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 4: Market Data Summary CEA Market Data | Quota Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Average Trading Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.11 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3004.64 | | CEA21 | 72.00 | 0.00% | 2.89 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 71.50 | 0.00% | -0.50 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 71.00 | 1.65% | -0.50 | N/A | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 88.75 | | CEA24 | 71.20 | 2.45% | 0.20 | 71.20 | 42.20 | 0.20 | 42.00 | 0.00 | [7][8] CCER Market Data - Average trading price: 89.32 yuan/ton, a 2.34% increase - Trading volume: 1,100 tons - Turnover: 993,000 yuan [9]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 100, 2025) [1] Report Date - June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, with the price trends of the primary and secondary markets of EUA diverging. The short - term outlook is bearish, and the medium - term outlook is volatile, with a range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 72.71 euros/ton (-1.07%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.31 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 75.39 euros/ton (1.39%), and the trading volume is 36,700 lots (0.64) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Bearish; Medium - term: Volatile, range €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - **Likely to Rise**: Israel's air strike on Iran makes the US - Iran peace talks scheduled for the weekend likely to be hopeless, and crude oil continues to rise significantly. Japan expands LNG procurement from the US to diversify procurement risks in the Middle East and the Asia - Pacific [2][3] - **Likely to Fall**: The EU accelerates the laying of high - voltage cables to support the integration of renewable energy into the grid [4] Risks - The EU resumes Russian gas supply; The EU increases auctions to raise funds; The emission cap is weakened [4] Chart Information - **Chart 1**: Shows EUA auction volume, CBAM certificate price, EUA auction price, auction revenue, and bid coverage ratio on June 11 - 12, 2025 [4] - **Chart 2**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction price trend - **Chart 3**: Seasonal chart of EUA auction bid coverage ratio - **Chart 4**: Shows EUA futures and spot market information on June 11 - 12, 2025, including futures settlement price, volume, open interest, spot settlement price, volume, container shipping carbon cost, etc. [4] - **Chart 5**: EUA futures and spot prices and basis - **Chart 6**: Seasonal chart of December contract open interest