Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a deceptive rally, with the index showing gains while the majority of individual stocks are declining, indicating a potential trap for investors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The index reached a high of 3930 points but failed to break the previous high of 3936 points, suggesting a lack of momentum for a genuine breakout [3] - Despite the index being in the green, over 4000 stocks declined while only about 1000 stocks advanced, highlighting a significant disparity between index performance and individual stock performance [1][2] - The trading volume increased by 15% compared to the previous day, but the overall market activity was still considered low, indicating a lack of genuine investor interest [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Major stocks like Moutai and leading insurance companies were propped up by funds, which temporarily supported the index, but this was seen as a façade rather than a sustainable trend [2] - The AI media sector and other small-cap stocks experienced significant declines, with some dropping over 4% within half a day, reflecting a broader weakness in the market [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The support level at 3890 points is critical; if breached, the index could fall towards 3850 points, with a high probability of further declines given the current market conditions [3] - A volume threshold of 2.3 trillion is necessary for a rebound; today's volume of 1.9 trillion is insufficient, suggesting continued volatility ahead [3] - Investors are advised to reduce positions in underperforming stocks and avoid bottom-fishing until clearer signals emerge, as the current environment is characterized by risk aversion [3]

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Xi'an Yicai has an IPO with a subscription code of 787783, an issue price of 8.62 yuan per share, and a subscription limit of 53,500 shares [1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Measures - China has filed a request for consultations with India at the WTO regarding India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures, which are seen as violating multiple obligations and providing unfair competitive advantages to Indian industries [3] - The Chinese government emphasizes its stance on rare earth export controls, stating that these measures are in line with international practices and aimed at maintaining global peace and regional stability [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [4] - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [5] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a three-year action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide [5] Group 5: Company News - Tianpu Co. will resume trading on October 16, and Zhonghao Xinying has initiated its IPO process after a significant stock price increase of 317.72% over 15 consecutive trading days [10] - *ST Zhengping will also resume trading on October 16 after a 101.86% increase in stock price over the month of September [11] - Mingxin Xuteng has secured a contract for interior materials from a new energy vehicle client, with total sales expected to reach approximately 650 million yuan [12] - Ping An Life continues to increase its stake in China Merchants Bank's H-shares, surpassing 17% of the total H-shares [13] - China Ruilin plans to invest 30 million yuan in establishing a tungsten mining fund [14] - Dingsheng Technology has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Boyuan Co., focusing on diversified collaboration in solid-state electrolyte systems [15] - Tailin Microelectronics expects a 118% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, driven by significant growth in AI products [16] - Hengmingda plans to repurchase shares worth between 200 million to 400 million yuan [17] - Sanhua Intelligent Control has denied rumors regarding receiving large orders for robots [18] Group 6: Market Outlook - Changjiang Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly favoring technology sectors and industries showing signs of recovery [20] - Debang Securities notes that the market is experiencing a rebound, but highlights the need for increased capital inflow to sustain this trend [20]

Economic Indicators - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be 4.0% for January to September, the first time since 2021 that it falls below GDP growth of approximately 5.1%[2] - September PPI is expected to narrow year-on-year to -2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of around -0.2%[15] - Retail sales growth for September is projected at 3.2%, while fixed asset investment growth for January to September is estimated at -0.2%[15] Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and changes to real estate purchase restrictions in first-tier cities[3][13] - The government plans to enhance economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on economic conditions, as stated in a press conference on September 29[2] Trade Relations - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions includes a proposed 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which has led to a short-term market reaction[5][24] - Historical data suggests that trade tensions have limited long-term impacts on market pricing, primarily affecting risk preferences rather than fundamental economic growth[4][19] Market Trends - The bond market has shown a quick decline in yields following the announcement of new tariffs, with a focus on the 1.7%-1.75% yield range for future movements[5][26] - The dollar index has rebounded by 2.3% since the Federal Reserve's September meeting, driven by a decrease in short positions and increased foreign investment in US Treasury bonds[6][28] Fund Performance - The total equity fund position increased to 96.02%, up by 118 bps from the previous week, while mixed funds rose to 93.86%, an increase of 70 bps[9][35] - The average return for equity ETFs was -0.66%, while mixed bond funds performed slightly better with an average return of -0.08%[9][37]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, reaching a new high in over 10 years [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3898.31 and reached a high of 3900.74, closing with a trading volume of 473.898 billion [3]. - The market saw 1,092 stocks rise, 1,152 decline, and 81 remain flat, indicating a mixed performance among listed companies [3]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector led the gains in the A-share market, driven by gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce during the holiday [5]. - The top-performing sectors included precious metals (+6.98%), power generation equipment (+4.99%), and base metals (+4.18%) [6]. Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market post-holiday. Zhongtai Securities noted a generally optimistic market sentiment before the holiday, suggesting a high probability of an upward trend after the holiday [8]. - Zheshang Securities anticipates a likely oscillating pattern for the Shanghai Composite Index, with two potential paths: a direct breakthrough of previous highs or initial consolidation before a breakout [8]. - Dongwu Securities highlighted a historical trend of more gains than losses in the market following the National Day holiday, emphasizing the importance of volume and price coordination in the post-holiday index performance [8]. Global Market Context - During the holiday, global stock indices rose, with COMEX gold prices increasing by 4.84%, reaching new historical highs, indicating a favorable environment for risk assets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24 market" initiated a significant transformation in the A-share market, marking the beginning of a slow bull market characterized by a focus on technology and leading companies, driven by systemic policy support and a shift in market dynamics [1][19]. Policy Foundation - On September 24, 2024, a comprehensive financial policy package was launched to stabilize the real estate, stock market, and economy, which was a key catalyst for the market rally [2]. - The People's Bank of China introduced new monetary policy tools to support stock repurchases and long-term capital inflows, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) encouraged mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. Market Performance - Since the launch of the "9·24 market," the total market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increased from 81.8 trillion yuan to 116.6 trillion yuan, a rise of 42.54% [8]. - The Shenzhen Composite Index saw a cumulative increase of 61.7%, outperforming major global indices such as the Nasdaq and Nikkei [6][7]. Capital Inflows - Foreign capital has shown renewed interest, with net inflows exceeding 10.1 billion USD in the first half of 2025, reversing two years of net outflows [9]. - The shift in capital focus from small-cap stocks to leading companies has created a dual engine of high dividend and technology growth sectors driving the market [9][10]. Industry Dynamics - The financial sector remains dominant, with its market capitalization increasing by 25.18%, while the electronic equipment sector surged by 113%, reflecting a significant structural shift in market leadership [11][12]. - The technology sector has produced notable high-performing stocks, with companies like Cambrian Technology surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-priced stock in A-shares [12]. Investor Engagement - A positive investment-funding cycle is emerging, with a significant increase in new investor accounts and trading volumes, indicating heightened market activity [15][14]. - The number of new accounts opened in the A-share market reached 2.65 million in August 2025, a 35% month-on-month increase, reflecting growing investor confidence [14]. Future Outlook - The "9·24 market" is seen as a milestone for the A-share market, establishing a foundation for long-term growth driven by systemic policy support and improved market ecology [16][21]. - The transition from a speculative market to a value-driven market is underway, with a focus on sustainable growth and investor protection [21].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1 - The market showed resilience led by the technology sector, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index rising by 1.42% to 1997.84 points last week [1] - Notable strong performers included Zhongwei Company, which increased by 20.09%, and Ningde Times, which rose by 13.38% [1] - Other significant gainers included Mango Super Media, SMIC, and Shield Environment, with increases of 12.62%, 11.92%, and 8.92% respectively [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged by 188.98%, while Yangguang Power and Covos have increased by 102.45% and 80.32% respectively [2] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility in the short term due to the technology sector being at a high point, with potential for accelerated industry rotation and capital switching [2] - Starstone Investment suggests that the market may maintain a period of oscillation after a short-term peak, focusing on policy-driven, performance-confirmed, and reasonably valued sectors [2] Group 3 - In the medium term, the stock market is expected to maintain a positive trend, supported by policy initiatives and economic stabilization [3] - Despite significant gains in the past two months, the overall market valuation remains reasonable, indicating potential for further upward movement [3] - Key indicators such as stock-bond yield ratios and total market capitalization relative to GDP suggest that the current stock market still has room for growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market has entered a medium-wave oscillation environment, with a consistent judgment that the overall market remains upward but with increased volatility [1] - Investment strategy suggests a long-term perspective, aiming to capture the technology sector as the main line [1][2] - Short-term fluctuations are primarily driven by divergences in bullish sentiment, with AI-related sectors still having catalytic factors, but a need for consolidation due to significant floating profits [1] Group 2 - The current trading volume remains strong, and despite potential external shocks from events like the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions or Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, if bullish sentiment persists, the index is likely to remain in an upward channel [1] - Under neutral expectations, if there are no unexpected changes in the macro and policy environment, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a narrow range of oscillation until late October [2] - Key sectors for investment include PCB and optical modules in overseas computing power, GPU and ASIC in domestic computing power, and innovative drugs and medical devices in the pharmaceutical sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with technology remaining the main focus, but there is a high-low switch within the sector [1][2] Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant slowdown since September, but opportunities in low-position sectors are emerging, which is beneficial for maintaining a long-term slow bull market [1] - After a brief correction in early September, the market has returned to an upward trend, although the pace of growth has slowed compared to August [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous high of 3731 points from 2021, indicating a potential for other lagging indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext to catch up [2] Sector Analysis - In September, the technology sector may experience some differentiation, with low-position sectors like robotics, new energy, and military industry expected to see a rebound [3] - The trend towards domestic production of semiconductors continues, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military sector is anticipated to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with many sub-sectors showing signs of bottoming out in their mid-year performance [3] - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3] - The banking sector is witnessing a rebound in mid-year performance growth after the impact of loan rate re-pricing, making it attractive to long-term institutional investors [3] Market Performance - The market has shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with the robotics sector leading the gains, replacing computing hardware as the top-performing segment [4] - The technology growth indices like STAR Market and ChiNext continue to lead the market, with over 3600 stocks rising on the day [4] - Leading sectors include computers, machinery, retail, automotive, and textiles, while lagging sectors include agriculture, banking, non-ferrous metals, military, and food and beverage [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high of 3888 points, setting a new annual high [2][3][16] - The technology sector remains the main driving force of the market, with expectations for continued performance despite recent fluctuations [2][3][16] - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with more stocks declining than rising, indicating a cautious approach among investors [5][19] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to continue as the main focus, with potential for internal rotation and high-low switches within the sector [2][3][16] - Solid-state batteries and new technologies in the renewable energy sector are highlighted as areas of opportunity, particularly for leading companies with core technology reserves [2][3][16] - The cyclical sectors and high-end manufacturing are seen as key beneficiaries of economic recovery, presenting further investment opportunities [2][3][16] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from increased market activity, with direct profits from brokerage and margin financing businesses [2][3][16] Recent Performance - The three major indices have all reached new highs for the year, indicating a potential continuation of the volatile bull market [3][17] - The PPI in the US decreased by 0.1% in August, easing inflationary pressures and raising expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][17] - Trading volume has rebounded, with total trading exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a return to a strong trading environment [3][17] Investment Strategy - For companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry prospects, maintaining positions is recommended [18] - It is advisable to reduce exposure to sectors that have seen excessive gains and high valuations [18] - Attention should be given to second-tier technology leaders, cyclical sectors, and brokerage stocks during market corrections for structural opportunities [18]