市场策略丨点评报告 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 1217 A 股日评：市场情绪修复，创业板指领涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今日 A 股市场三大指数全部上涨，通信、有色金属板块全线爆发，创业板指涨幅超 3 个点。长 江一级行业中电信业务、金属材料及矿业、电子与保险等行业领涨。从指数表现来看，上证指 数上涨 1.19%，深证成指上涨 2.40%，创业板指上涨 3.39%，上证 50 上涨 1.25%，沪深 300 上涨 1.83%，科创 50 上涨 2.47%，中证 1000 上涨 1.49%，市场成交额为 1.83 万亿元，全市 场 3623 家上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 1217 A 股日评：市场情绪修复，创业板指领涨 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今日 A 股市场三大指数全部上涨，通信、有色金属板块全线爆发，创业板指涨幅超 3 个点。长 江一级 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and market volume slightly decreased. The banking, home decoration, and leisure sectors led the gains, while electronics, telecommunications, and media internet sectors saw corrections [2][5][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.82%. The total market turnover was approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [9][15] Market Performance - In terms of sector performance, the banking sector increased by 0.26%, home decoration and leisure by 0.18%, and construction products by 0.13%. Conversely, the electronics sector decreased by 2.93%, telecommunications by 2.40%, and media internet by 2.01% [9][15] - Conceptually, the "Cross-Strait Integration" concept rose by 4.19%, while sectors like storage, HBM, advanced packaging, and optical modules saw significant declines [9] Market Drivers - The market's risk appetite has decreased due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish comments from some Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts. This has led to profit-taking in previously high-performing sectors, particularly in technology [9][15] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing that macroeconomic liquidity remains ample and that the market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, drawing parallels to previous bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [9][15] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technology growth and value sectors that are gradually recovering. Key areas of interest include AI and robotics, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks [9][15] - For long-term strategies, attention should be given to sectors with improving profitability, such as fiberglass, cement, paper, and fine chemicals, as well as non-bank sectors in a slow bull market [9][15]

Group 1 - The overall fund positions increased in Q3 2025, with a notable rise in the allocation to the ChiNext board, increasing by 4.06 percentage points to 19.27%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 5.75 percentage points to 66.76% [6][15][24] - In terms of industry allocation, public funds increased their exposure to technology while reducing their allocation to consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors. The sectors with the highest overweight included electronics, telecommunications, power and new energy equipment, and healthcare [6][28][33] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw an overall increase in positions, with funds increasing their allocation to electronics and telecommunications while reducing their exposure to the computer sector [6][28][33] Group 2 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors decreased, with the proportion of high-dividend industry holdings dropping by 5.34 percentage points to 4.62% in Q3 2025 [6][45] - The export-related sectors showed mixed trends, with an increase in allocation to components and parts by 3.0 percentage points to 9.85%, while the allocation to household appliances decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 2.54% [6][28] - The healthcare sector saw a decrease in allocation, with public funds reducing their exposure to the food and beverage industry while increasing their positions in power and new energy equipment [6][28][33]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark and a total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2][10][7] - Key sectors leading the market include telecommunications, electronics, metal materials, mining, and agricultural products, with notable gains in the storage, cross-strait integration, rare earths, and consumer electronics outsourcing concepts [10][10][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%. The total market turnover reached 2.36 trillion yuan, with 3360 stocks rising [2][10][10] - Specific sector performance on October 27, 2025, showed telecommunications (+3.28%), electronics (+2.95%), metal materials and mining (+2.45%), and agricultural products (+1.65%) leading the gains, while sectors like media, food and beverage, real estate, and banking saw declines [10][10][10] Market Drivers - The increase in trading volume to over 2 trillion yuan was driven by global storage giants announcing price hikes, boosting technology hardware stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector [10][10] - Legislative actions, such as the establishment of October 25 as Taiwan Recovery Day, have led to increased activity in the cross-strait integration sector, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft on steel industry capacity replacement has positively impacted steel stocks [10][10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly favoring technology as a key investment theme. It suggests that macroeconomic factors will support a bullish trend similar to past bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10] - Investment focus areas include technology sectors such as AI, robotics, military industry, and new consumption, as well as scarce resources like metals and sectors with improving supply dynamics such as steel, chemicals, transportation, and pig farming [10][10]

Core Insights - The A-share market opened high and maintained a high-level fluctuation, with a slight increase in trading volume. The communication sector led the gains, while technology sectors such as batteries, robotics, and circuit boards experienced a general rebound [6][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98%, the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%, the SSE 50 Index gained 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.53%, the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.75%. The total market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, with 4,064 stocks rising [10][10]. Sector Performance - On October 20, 2025, within the primary sectors of A-shares, the telecommunications sector led with a gain of 3.15%, followed by coal (+2.96%), power and new energy equipment (+1.53%), and transportation (+1.40%). Conversely, sectors such as metal materials and mining (-0.99%), agricultural products (-0.87%), and banking (-0.13%) saw declines. Notably, concepts like cultivated diamonds (+13.43%), superhard materials (+9.59%), optical modules (+5.07%), and lithium battery electrolytes (+4.75%) led the gains, while gold jewelry, rare earths, nickel ore, and feed concepts declined [10][10]. Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to a temporary alleviation of overseas uncertainties, with a rebound in hard technology sectors. Notable gains were seen in computing hardware stocks such as optical modules and optical communications. A leading humanoid robot company secured a significant order exceeding 100 million yuan, boosting the robotics sector. Additionally, coal entered its seasonal peak, attracting capital inflows into defensive sectors like coal and natural gas. The emergence of the world's largest cultivated diamond in Henan also spurred a surge in related stocks [10][10]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly for October, anticipating favorable policies following the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session. The report supports the views outlined in previous strategies, emphasizing that the key macroeconomic theme for 2025 is "the liquidity of monetary policy." It expects a gradual recovery in the fundamentals, predicting a bullish market trend, drawing parallels with bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the technology sector and value-oriented sectors that are gradually recovering. Specific areas of interest include: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly "double innovation" and the Hang Seng Technology Index, with attention to lithium batteries, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks. 2. Value sectors, particularly those with consecutive increases in revenue growth and gross margins over the past two quarters, including fiberglass, cement, paper, fine chemicals, oil services, and medical services. 3. In the medium to long term, attention should be given to the non-bank sector within a slow bull market context [10][10].

Group 1: Electricity Consumption - In August, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and setting a historical record for the second consecutive month above 1 trillion kilowatt-hours [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that issues of false marketing and counterfeit goods are prominent in the live e-commerce sector, leading to the drafting of the "Live E-commerce Supervision Management Measures," which will be officially released soon [2]. - The National Internet Information Office has taken action against platforms like Toutiao and UC for failing to manage harmful content, resulting in penalties including warnings and demands for corrections [2]. Group 3: Corporate Announcements - Rili Pharmaceutical signed a supply framework agreement worth no less than 3 billion yuan [6]. - Woler Materials plans to invest up to 1 billion yuan in a new materials project [6]. - Dongshan Precision is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6]. - Olin Bio is also planning to issue H-shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6]. - Shima Co. intends to repurchase shares worth between 100 million to 200 million yuan [6]. - Guaihuo Communication plans to repurchase shares worth between 75 million to 150 million yuan [6].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with all three major indices falling, while the Sci-Tech 50 index rose against the trend, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2][4] - The electronic, telecommunications, and social services sectors led the gains, while the metal materials, mining, comprehensive finance, insurance, and agricultural products sectors saw corrections [2][4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.06%, the ChiNext Index by 1.64%, the SSE 50 by 1.35%, and the CSI 300 by 1.16%. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 rose by 0.72%, and the CSI 1000 dropped by 1.04%. The total market turnover was approximately 3.17 trillion yuan [2][7][12] - Among the Longjiang primary industries, electronics (+0.93%), telecommunications (+0.31%), and social services (+0.29%) were the top performers, while metal materials and mining (-3.16%), comprehensive finance (-3.00%), and insurance (-2.22%) lagged [7][12] Market Drivers - The decline in the A-share market was accompanied by increased trading volume, returning to high levels. AI computing hardware stocks led the gains, while sectors such as trading software, rare metals, and industrial metals experienced corrections [7][12] - The market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations of a "slow bull" trend in the A-share market, driven by ample liquidity and the potential for long-term capital inflows [12][13] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus should be on sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, including fiberglass, cement, fine chemicals, and other materials. Additionally, technology growth sectors such as AI computing and robotics should be monitored [12][13] - Long-term perspectives favor sectors benefiting from "de-involution" trends, including metals, transportation, chemicals, and lithium batteries, as well as high-end manufacturing technologies like AI and robotics [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the "Working Plan" to support Beijing in being the first to trial the WTO's Electronic Commerce Agreement, which aims to enhance digital trade practices and establish a framework for international cooperation in this area [1] - The Electronic Commerce Agreement, confirmed by 71 members including China, the EU, and Australia, encompasses four main pillars: digital facilitation, digital openness, digital trust, and digital inclusion, addressing key rules for electronic transactions, certification, and tariff exemptions on electronic transmissions [1] - The "Working Plan" includes 41 specific measures aimed at fostering institutional innovation and creating replicable digital trade policies, which will serve as a foundation for nationwide implementation and showcase China's commitment to high-level openness [1] Group 2 - The plan aims to enhance trade digitalization by promoting the use of electronic documents such as bills of lading and invoices, and facilitating cross-border recognition of electronic certifications and signatures [2] - It seeks to establish a comprehensive data governance system in Beijing, including the creation of a data element market and enhancing personal information protection, while also improving the convenience of cross-border data flow [2] - The initiative includes optimizing the digital consumer environment by improving online consumer protection mechanisms and enhancing the transparency of telecommunications services, as well as promoting international cooperation in digital trade [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight increase today, with all three major indices rising, driven by the overseas demand for computing power, particularly in the TMT sector [2][7][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.27%, with a total market turnover of 2 trillion yuan and 2,440 stocks rising [2][10] Market Performance - The telecommunications sector led the gains with a rise of 3.50%, followed by media and internet (+1.87%) and electronics (+1.62%). Conversely, the power and new energy equipment sector fell by 1.15%, while metal materials and mining dropped by 0.81% and coal by 0.75% [10] - Notable concepts that performed well included copper-clad laminates (+3.73%), ice and snow tourism (+3.10%), and optical modules (+3.07%), while lithium mining, lithium battery anodes, photovoltaic inverters, and PEEK materials lagged [10] Market Drivers - The A-share market's rise was catalyzed by multiple factors in the overseas computing power sector, with AI giants increasing their investments in computing power. Oracle expects a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue for the fiscal year 2026, and Microsoft has signed a $17.4 billion deal with AI infrastructure group Nebius [10] - Following China Unicom, China Mobile is applying for a satellite mobile communication business license, boosting the performance of RF and antenna, and 6G satellite internet concepts [10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, aligning with the 2025 annual investment strategy report. Key macroeconomic clues for 2025 focus on "liquidity as a lifeblood," with expectations for a bull market based on historical experiences from 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10] - Short-term investment focus includes sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, such as fiberglass and products, cement and concrete, fine chemicals, and rare earth materials [10] Long-term Perspective - In a "slow bull" market, attention should be given to value-oriented non-bank sectors and technology growth areas, particularly AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries [10] - The report suggests monitoring sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, including metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [10]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a notable rebound in the ChiNext Index, driven by gains in computing power and new energy stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65% [2][11] - The market turnover reached 2.40 trillion yuan, with 4,558 stocks declining across the board [11][25] Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%, while the Shanghai 50 Index dropped by 1.07%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.68% [11] - In terms of sector performance, telecommunications (+1.68%) and electric power & new energy equipment (+1.29%) sectors saw gains, while defense and military (-5.84%) and comprehensive finance (-3.57%) sectors led the declines [11] Industry Trends - The rebound in the ChiNext Index was supported by a resurgence in computing hardware stocks, particularly in optical modules and optical communication [11] - The new energy supply chain, including photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, showed strong performance, likely influenced by surging overseas demand for energy storage [11] - Battery concepts, such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, also saw upward movement due to industry advancements [11] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, anticipating continued monetary and fiscal support, which historically has helped the market withstand external risks and volatility [11] - Investment strategies should focus on non-bank sectors in a "slow bull" market, with an emphasis on AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military sectors [11] - Additionally, sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, such as metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming, are recommended for attention [11]