十一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-11-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 大市研判 上证指数自2025年8月26日之后进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段 10月底的向上突破4000依然属于中枢震荡的一部分，因其后依然会跌回原中枢中 图：上证指数日线走势（2024年9月至2025年10月末） 资料来源：通达信，长江证券研究所 %% research.95579.com 3 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 目前尚未构成向下的一笔 图：创业板指周线走势（2012年至2025年10月末） 资料来源：交易开拓者，长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 同期进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段，当前看有小M头趋势 图：创业板指日线走势（ ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, driven by a surge in the new energy industry chain, particularly in power and new energy equipment, metal materials and mining, and comprehensive finance and insurance sectors [2][4][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with 2664 stocks rising [2][7][4] Industry Performance - On October 29, 2025, the leading sectors included: - Power and new energy equipment (+4.65%) - Metal materials and mining (+3.75%) - Comprehensive finance (+2.23%) and insurance (+1.65%) - Conversely, the banking, food and beverage, textile and apparel, and testing services sectors lagged [7][4] Conceptual Trends - Key concepts leading the market included: - Photovoltaic inverters (+5.54%) - Industrial metals (+5.28%) - Anti-involution (+4.97%) - Rare metals (+4.88%) - The banking sector and concepts related to state-owned banks and minimum market capitalization faced declines [7][4] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to: - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing increased new energy supply - Strong quarterly reports from leading energy storage companies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle benefiting lithium mining leaders, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [7][4] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to continue revaluation. The report suggests that the economic demand driven by traditional real estate is declining, while new productive forces are gradually gaining traction [7][4] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment directions include: 1. High-quality supply creating new demand in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics 2. Scarce supply deserving valuation premiums, particularly in metals driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors 3. Valuation recovery from excess capacity clearance in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals 4. Focus on insurance and brokerage sectors, as low-interest rates encourage residents to allocate more to equity assets, enhancing market activity [7][4]

Group 1 - The overall fund positions increased in Q3 2025, with a notable rise in the allocation to the ChiNext board, increasing by 4.06 percentage points to 19.27%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 5.75 percentage points to 66.76% [6][15][24] - In terms of industry allocation, public funds increased their exposure to technology while reducing their allocation to consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors. The sectors with the highest overweight included electronics, telecommunications, power and new energy equipment, and healthcare [6][28][33] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw an overall increase in positions, with funds increasing their allocation to electronics and telecommunications while reducing their exposure to the computer sector [6][28][33] Group 2 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors decreased, with the proportion of high-dividend industry holdings dropping by 5.34 percentage points to 4.62% in Q3 2025 [6][45] - The export-related sectors showed mixed trends, with an increase in allocation to components and parts by 3.0 percentage points to 9.85%, while the allocation to household appliances decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 2.54% [6][28] - The healthcare sector saw a decrease in allocation, with public funds reducing their exposure to the food and beverage industry while increasing their positions in power and new energy equipment [6][28][33]

Core Insights - The A-share market opened high and maintained a high-level fluctuation, with a slight increase in trading volume. The communication sector led the gains, while technology sectors such as batteries, robotics, and circuit boards experienced a general rebound [6][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98%, the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%, the SSE 50 Index gained 0.24%, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.53%, the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.75%. The total market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, with 4,064 stocks rising [10][10]. Sector Performance - On October 20, 2025, within the primary sectors of A-shares, the telecommunications sector led with a gain of 3.15%, followed by coal (+2.96%), power and new energy equipment (+1.53%), and transportation (+1.40%). Conversely, sectors such as metal materials and mining (-0.99%), agricultural products (-0.87%), and banking (-0.13%) saw declines. Notably, concepts like cultivated diamonds (+13.43%), superhard materials (+9.59%), optical modules (+5.07%), and lithium battery electrolytes (+4.75%) led the gains, while gold jewelry, rare earths, nickel ore, and feed concepts declined [10][10]. Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to a temporary alleviation of overseas uncertainties, with a rebound in hard technology sectors. Notable gains were seen in computing hardware stocks such as optical modules and optical communications. A leading humanoid robot company secured a significant order exceeding 100 million yuan, boosting the robotics sector. Additionally, coal entered its seasonal peak, attracting capital inflows into defensive sectors like coal and natural gas. The emergence of the world's largest cultivated diamond in Henan also spurred a surge in related stocks [10][10]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly for October, anticipating favorable policies following the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session. The report supports the views outlined in previous strategies, emphasizing that the key macroeconomic theme for 2025 is "the liquidity of monetary policy." It expects a gradual recovery in the fundamentals, predicting a bullish market trend, drawing parallels with bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the technology sector and value-oriented sectors that are gradually recovering. Specific areas of interest include: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly "double innovation" and the Hang Seng Technology Index, with attention to lithium batteries, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks. 2. Value sectors, particularly those with consecutive increases in revenue growth and gross margins over the past two quarters, including fiberglass, cement, paper, fine chemicals, oil services, and medical services. 3. In the medium to long term, attention should be given to the non-bank sector within a slow bull market context [10][10].

- The report focuses on the analysis of Northbound capital inflows into various industries during Q3 2025, highlighting that the total market value of A-shares held by Northbound capital reached approximately 2.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 295.6 billion yuan compared to Q2 2025 [2][4][11] - Northbound capital was overweight in the power and new energy equipment industry relative to the CSI 300 index, with a configuration ratio of approximately 18.11% compared to 7.16% in the CSI 300 index, resulting in an overweight of about 10.95% [4][13] - After removing the impact of industry-specific price fluctuations from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, the net inflow of Northbound capital was calculated for various industries. The top five primary industries with the highest net inflows were electronics, power and new energy equipment, agricultural products, chemicals, and non-metallic materials. Conversely, the top five primary industries with the highest net outflows were banking, food and beverages, public utilities, comprehensive finance, and home appliance manufacturing [5][16] - For secondary industries, the top five with the highest net inflows were components and devices, new energy vehicle equipment, general machinery, new energy equipment and manufacturing, and display devices. The top five secondary industries with the highest net outflows were state-owned banks, liquor, joint-stock banks, electricity, and securities and futures [5][20]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend today, with all three major indices rising, led by the ChiNext Index, while brokerage stocks rebounded strongly and both the new energy and non-ferrous metal sectors surged [5][9]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.74%. The Shanghai 50 Index was up by 1.09%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.54%, the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index saw a 1.36% increase. The total market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, with 3,574 stocks rising across the market [9][5]. Sector Performance - On September 29, 2025, the leading sectors in the A-share market included comprehensive finance (+4.65%), metal materials and mining (+3.42%), and power and new energy equipment (+3.12%). Conversely, coal (-0.83%), banking (-0.48%), and social services (-0.14%) saw declines. In terms of concepts, lithium battery electrolyte (+7.69%), stock trading software (+6.77%), lithium battery anode (+5.82%), and lithium iron phosphate batteries (+4.99%) led the gains, while cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, coal mining, and poultry industries faced declines [9][5]. Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was driven by several factors, including the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan," which aims for over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, potentially driving an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan. Additionally, advancements in solid-state battery polymer electrolytes by Tsinghua University's Zhang Qiang team contributed to the surge in new energy sectors. The central bank's emphasis on utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swaps, along with stock repurchase loans, also supported market stability [9][5]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, advocating for holding positions through the holiday and anticipating a favorable October market. The focus remains on technology as a key theme, with expectations for more incremental policies following the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session. The report reiterates the views from the "Source of Living Water - 2025 A-share Annual Investment Strategy" and "China Asset Revaluation Trio - 2025 A-share Mid-term Investment Strategy," suggesting that the key macroeconomic clue for 2025 is "the liquidity of currency," with a gradual recovery in the fundamentals expected to lead to a bull market [9][5]. Investment Direction - The report suggests continued focus on the technology sector and value-oriented investments that are gradually bottoming out. Specific areas of interest include: 1. Technology growth sectors, particularly "Double Innovation" and the Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as lithium batteries, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks. 2. Value sectors, focusing on industries with consecutive increases in revenue growth and gross margin over the past two quarters, such as fiberglass, cement, paper, fine chemicals, oil services, and medical services. 3. In the medium to long term, attention should be given to the non-bank sector within the slow bull market context [9][5].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with stable market sentiment as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut approach, leading to significant gains in the technology sector [2][5][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.95%, with a total market turnover of 2.40 trillion yuan and 2,504 stocks rising [2][8] Market Performance - The A-share market saw gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16%, and ChiNext Index up 1.95% [8] - The market turnover reached 2.40 trillion yuan, with 2,504 stocks experiencing an increase [8][21] Sector Performance - In the A-share market on September 17, 2025, sectors such as Power and New Energy Equipment (+2.73%), Automotive (+2.02%), Home Appliances (+1.62%), and Coal (+1.61%) saw notable increases, while sectors like Agricultural Products (-1.00%), Social Services (-0.89%), and Commercial Trade (-0.74%) faced declines [8] - Concept stocks such as Stock Trading Software (+4.73%), Lithography Machines (+4.24%), and Robotics (+3.09%) led the gains, while sectors like Gold and Jewelry, Aquaculture, and Prepared Dishes lagged [8] Market Drivers - The slight increase in the A-share market is attributed to stable market sentiment and the approaching possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which may attract foreign capital to the A-share market [8] - The robotics sector remained active due to advancements related to Tesla's humanoid robot, while the automotive sector benefited from rising automotive parts [8] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of "liquidity" in 2025, with expectations for a bull market based on historical precedents from 1999, 2014, and 2019 [8] - Short-term focus areas include sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and medical services, as well as technology growth sectors like lithium batteries and military industry [8] Long-term Perspective - In the technology growth sector, continued optimism is noted for AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries, with increased attention on relatively low-positioned AI applications and deep-sea technology [8] - In sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, focus is on metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [8]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight increase today, with all three major indices rising, driven by the overseas demand for computing power, particularly in the TMT sector [2][7][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.27%, with a total market turnover of 2 trillion yuan and 2,440 stocks rising [2][10] Market Performance - The telecommunications sector led the gains with a rise of 3.50%, followed by media and internet (+1.87%) and electronics (+1.62%). Conversely, the power and new energy equipment sector fell by 1.15%, while metal materials and mining dropped by 0.81% and coal by 0.75% [10] - Notable concepts that performed well included copper-clad laminates (+3.73%), ice and snow tourism (+3.10%), and optical modules (+3.07%), while lithium mining, lithium battery anodes, photovoltaic inverters, and PEEK materials lagged [10] Market Drivers - The A-share market's rise was catalyzed by multiple factors in the overseas computing power sector, with AI giants increasing their investments in computing power. Oracle expects a 77% growth in cloud infrastructure revenue for the fiscal year 2026, and Microsoft has signed a $17.4 billion deal with AI infrastructure group Nebius [10] - Following China Unicom, China Mobile is applying for a satellite mobile communication business license, boosting the performance of RF and antenna, and 6G satellite internet concepts [10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, aligning with the 2025 annual investment strategy report. Key macroeconomic clues for 2025 focus on "liquidity as a lifeblood," with expectations for a bull market based on historical experiences from 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10] - Short-term investment focus includes sectors with recent revenue growth and improving gross margins, such as fiberglass and products, cement and concrete, fine chemicals, and rare earth materials [10] Long-term Perspective - In a "slow bull" market, attention should be given to value-oriented non-bank sectors and technology growth areas, particularly AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military industries [10] - The report suggests monitoring sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, including metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [10]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with a notable rebound in the ChiNext Index, driven by gains in computing power and new energy stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65% [2][11] - The market turnover reached 2.40 trillion yuan, with 4,558 stocks declining across the board [11][25] Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.95%, while the Shanghai 50 Index dropped by 1.07%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.68% [11] - In terms of sector performance, telecommunications (+1.68%) and electric power & new energy equipment (+1.29%) sectors saw gains, while defense and military (-5.84%) and comprehensive finance (-3.57%) sectors led the declines [11] Industry Trends - The rebound in the ChiNext Index was supported by a resurgence in computing hardware stocks, particularly in optical modules and optical communication [11] - The new energy supply chain, including photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, showed strong performance, likely influenced by surging overseas demand for energy storage [11] - Battery concepts, such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, also saw upward movement due to industry advancements [11] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, anticipating continued monetary and fiscal support, which historically has helped the market withstand external risks and volatility [11] - Investment strategies should focus on non-bank sectors in a "slow bull" market, with an emphasis on AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, and military sectors [11] - Additionally, sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, such as metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming, are recommended for attention [11]