注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 华创证券指出，红利资产在交运公用、金融、能源化工、食饮、家电、地产、金属、出版等多个行业展 现出配置价值。在交运公用领域，公路、港口、铁路等长久期资产具备防御稳健性，其中公路行业推荐 具备成长潜力的优质高速资产；港口行业海外布局及分红比例提升推升估值弹性；铁路行业受益改革红 利，黄金线路资产具备价格弹性潜力。金融板块中，银行股息率高且资产质量安全边际充足，中长期投 资价值持续。能源化工行业方面，油气作为能源安全基石，长期现金流有保障，资本开支趋势性下修； 煤炭行业反内卷政策超预期，供给约束下行业盈利稳定性增强。金属行业中电解铝企业进入现金流修复 阶段，供需紧平衡支撑铝价，行业吨铝利润有望维持高位。出版行业教育出版主业稳健，稳定高分红叠 加AI教育等新方向布局，配置价值突出。整体来看，红利 ...

该行测算2025Q4至2026Q4潜在新增有效产能约为246.1万吨，在扣除因电力合同困境或电气设备故障预 计减产20-70万吨后，全球2026年实际贡献新增产量仅86-125万吨，较经该行预测的2025年全球产量增 长仅1.2%至1.7%;在逆全球化背景下，该行认为区域性的供需错配将进一步加快全球铝产业链重塑，海 外铝锭库存或在近几年或稳步走高，这将成为"新的需求"，而当下(2025.11)的铜铝比价(3.8)意味着铝价 更多受到铜价上涨的牵引，铝行业有望享受"铝代铜"带来的需求增量，以及自身电力成本刚性所形成的 利润壁垒这双重红利。 观点四：我国电解铝企业正在经历从周期股向红利资产转变的关键节点 电解铝板块自2021年以来进入去杠杆周期，行业从"增量竞争"转向"存量优化"。企业无法再通过扩张规 模来竞争，资本开支逐年回落。供需格局在产能受限和需求(如新能源汽车、光伏)支撑下趋于紧平衡， 行业利润维持在较高水平，为企业改善资产负债表提供了充足的现金流，随着企业资本开支率 (CAPEX/EBITA)的下行，财务结构更为健康，持续分红具备了有利条件，整体电解铝行业股息率有望 进一步提升。 观点二：我国电解铝供给 ...

数据来源：Wind 截止 最新定期报告显示，红利低波ETF（512890）前十大重仓股具体包括中粮糖业、南钢股份、成都银行、 大秦铁路、南京银行、兴业银行、农业银行、建设银行、中信银行、四川路桥，持仓占比如下： | 量仓括股 (2025-09-30) | | | | | | | | ਲਿੰਦ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 設置名称 | 特色电脑(元) | 将在数据 | 相对上期增城 | 占鉴赏布幅比 | 古都當中國比 | 占值得版本找 利润行业 | 区间分类型 | 行业区间设置 | | 中德维亚 (D | 695,289,225,56 | 43.591.801 | | 3.47% | 3.45% | 2.04% 日前角图 | 7.5.11% | -2.68% | | 廣明露出 | 570 DE9,953.25 | 908 584,753 | | 2.85% | 2.83% | 1.76% 8794 | 26.0% | 28.34% | | 同期的行 | 567,817,070.50 | 32.916.970 | 12.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - As the year-end approaches, the market is becoming cautious, leading to a resurgence in high-dividend assets, with funds shifting towards these investments [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On December 4, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) saw a net inflow of 37.94 million yuan, while the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) attracted 30.04 million yuan, marking its 11th consecutive day of inflows, totaling nearly 100 million yuan [1] - Institutional investors are typically shifting towards defensive, stable dividend assets to lock in annual returns, indicating a growing preference for these investments [1] - Historical data shows that the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has an 80% probability of closing positive in November and a 50% probability in December since 2015, demonstrating a seasonal "calendar effect" [1][2] Group 2: Long-term Investment Value - Despite underperforming mainstream indices over the past year, dividend assets have shown strong resilience in the long term, outperforming the 300 and 50 indices over three and ten years [4] - The annualized return of dividend assets over the past five years has been 10%, primarily driven by shareholder returns, with price contributions at only 4% [5] Group 3: Dividend Yield and Economic Environment - The current low interest rate environment in China has led to a decline in long-term rates, with the latest 10-year government bond yield at 1.87%, while the CSI Dividend Index has a yield of 4.87% and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index at 6.61% [7][8] - The attractiveness of dividend indices, with yields between 4% and 7%, is heightened by the decreasing risk-free return from government bonds [8] Group 4: Index Adjustments and Composition - Dividend indices typically undergo semi-annual or annual rebalancing to maintain their vitality, with the recent adjustments including the addition of strong sectors like metals and banking while removing weaker sectors like steel and real estate [9][10] - The average dividend yield of newly included stocks is expected to be 4.15%, compared to 3.89% for those being removed, indicating an enhancement in investment value [10] Group 5: Dividend Growth Trends - The trend of regular dividends has become established in A-shares since the implementation of the "New National Nine" policies, with the CSI Dividend Index constituents projected to distribute over 92 billion yuan in dividends in 2024, marking a historical high [12][13] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index has also shown a consistent increase in total dividends, exceeding 100 billion yuan for three consecutive years [14]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.55 trillion, a decrease of 121 billion compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.01% [1]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as robotics and commercial aerospace saw significant gains, while sectors like Hainan, tourism, and food experienced declines [1]. Analyst Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the market may exhibit a balanced trend with a focus on large-cap stocks this month, while small-cap growth stocks may show weakness [2]. - Huachuang Securities noted that the rotation strength among industries has increased, with the technology sector expanding into dividend and "anti-involution" assets. The rotation strength has risen to the 52nd percentile since 2021, and both policy and industrial cycles are accelerating this trend [3]. - CICC highlighted the robust growth of global commercial aerospace, which is driving demand for rocket launches. The number of global space launches is expected to increase from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, with domestic reusable rockets anticipated to mature [4]. Investment Focus - Dongwu Securities suggested focusing on sectors with improved marginal performance, including cyclical goods benefiting from global supply reshaping, consumer goods influenced by policy stimulus and structural upgrades, and advanced manufacturing that can validate expectations through performance [2]. - Huachuang Securities emphasized that cyclical assets with high weight in dividend assets are likely to benefit from the narrowing inflation level, which has improved from -3.6% to -2.1% year-on-year as of October [3].

以现金流ETF（159399）为例，11月底以来持续走强，资金也在持续净流入，近10个交易日净流入额超 5亿元，当前规模超45亿元。 展望后市，宏观稳增长的政策基调下，流动性环境易松难紧，目前10年期国债到期收益率已跌至1.8% 左右，而红利资产股息率较高，相比之下，红利资产的收益优势明显。 临近年底政策窗口期，市场往往面临 "业绩真空期 + 政策不确定性 + 资金面收紧"的问题，资金更倾向 于配置红利资产，以获取更优收益/波动比的"防御底仓"。 根据历史数据测算，红利风格在 12、1、4 月份有较为显著的超额收益。这可能是因为在年关之前的 12、1月份，红利股是资金避险的重要选择，而A股素有"5月决断'的说法，在5月之前的4月业绩发布 期，资金往往到红利股里进行避险。 值得关注的是，现金流指数长期显著跑赢红利指数。以全收益指数（含分红收益）计算，基日 （2013/12/31）以来，富时现金流指数年化收益率近20%，累计涨幅达666.55%，显著高于中证红利的 307.64%，连续 9 年跑赢中证红利指数。 究其原因，红利的背后是充裕的现金流，通常情况下，有能力及意愿提高分红比例的企业，往往具有稳 定的自由现 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with trading volume shrinking to 1.6 trillion, indicating reduced trading activity [1] - Sector rotation was noted, with commercial aerospace showing some continuity despite its small scale [1] - The market's sluggishness is linked to expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan, with the rate decision to be announced on the 19th [1] Key Events - Notable news includes U.S. short-seller Burry taking a short position on Tesla [1] - The launch of China's drug price registration system aims to support the export of innovative drugs [1] - Fujian province released opinions on cross-strait integration development [1] - Emphasis on increasing residents' income to boost domestic demand was highlighted by a government official [1] - The Ministry of Science and Technology stressed the importance of technological innovation planning [1] - Chongqing introduced measures to support "good housing" [1] Investment Sentiment - The article presents a neutral outlook on the A-share market, citing both negative factors such as market decline and poor high-buying experiences, as well as positive factors like expectations of Fed rate cuts and potential favorable policies from upcoming meetings [2]

在经历10月红利板块整体回暖后，11月红利资产的表现则明显分化。 Wind数据显示，11月，银行、石油石化、有色板块继续成为避险资金的核心配置方向。其中，银行板 块在10月上涨4.18%后，11月再涨3.1%。石油石化板块同样如此，在10月获得5.68%的涨幅后，11月再 攀升3.37%。有色板块截至11月末已连续6个月收红，不过11月涨幅收窄为0.61%。而电力、交运、公用 事业等传统红利板块则结束了10月的上行，在11月相继回调，相关指数分别下跌2.23%、2.49%、 1.76%。 业内人士表示，资金正从"全面防御"向"结构性高股息"切换。业内人士预计，未来红利资产还将继续分 化，资金将更聚焦于分红稳定、基本面扎实的优质标的。其中，"稳"字头的细分红利板块或可成为避险 或者"安全垫"资产，高股息叠加顺周期的细分板块则是配置型资金的重要选择。 红利资产现结构性分化 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉强调，红利资产近期已呈现结构性分化特征，他预计，未来这一分化态势大概率 会持续。 "之所以会出现这种情况，主要有两大因素影响了红利资产的股息率变化。"宝晓辉解释道，一是股价上 涨、下跌带来的"被动股息率变化"，二是经营基本面 ...

关联产品： 全指现金流ETF鹏华（512130） 关联个股： 截至12月03日14:15，全指现金流ETF鹏华（512130.SH）上涨0.75%，其关联指数中证现金流 （932365.CSI）上涨0.65%；主要成分股中，中国铝业上涨4.25%，TCL科技上涨4.08%，洛阳钼业上涨 2.33%，云铝股份上涨4.77%。 今日，有色金属板块涨幅居前，带动全指现金流ETF鹏华（512130.SH）关联指数中证现金流 （932365.CSI）成分股表现活跃，其中中国铝业、云铝股份分别上涨4.25%和4.77%，TCL科技、洛阳钼 业涨幅超2%。板块走强或受大宗商品价格波动及供需预期改善影响。 券商研究方面，湘财证券指出年末红利资产行情具备韧性，煤炭、石油石化等行业因供需格局改善及高 股息特性成为配置重点。其研报显示，煤炭行业受益于冬储补库逻辑，头部企业现金流充裕且股息率维 持高位。 有机构指出，维持A股年末休整期的判断，短期涨跌空间有限，建议以守为攻，风格上强调平衡配置， 适当关注回调充分且产业逻辑清晰的成长类品种。期待市场在12月重磅会议前后逐步企稳，明年一季度 有望迎来向上合力，春季躁动提前，科技成长和资源 ...

Market Overview - On December 2, A-shares experienced a collective decline, with the ChiNext Index down 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68%, and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% [1] - Despite market fluctuations, stock ETFs saw a relatively stable fund flow, with a net inflow of 1.619 billion yuan on the same day [1] ETF Fund Flows - Dividend ETFs, metal ETFs, and securities ETFs attracted significant inflows, while the CSI 300 ETF, defense industry ETF, and banking ETF experienced minor outflows [1] - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.55 trillion yuan as of December 2, with a net inflow of 1.619 billion yuan for the day [3] Dividend Sector Performance - The dividend sector showed notable inflows, totaling 2.02 billion yuan on December 2 [3] - Specific funds such as the E Fund's Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF saw a net inflow of 156 million yuan, reaching a record high of 6.406 billion yuan [3] - Other dividend ETFs, including those from Hua Bao, Hua An, and Morgan, also reported net inflows [3] Investment Insights - According to fund manager Huo Huaming from GF Fund, the increasing market volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's December meeting and the growing number of growth-supporting policies in China are expected to support a rebound in Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hang Seng Index is currently trading at approximately 12 times PE and 1.2 times PB, indicating relatively low valuations compared to major global markets [3] - Investors may consider shifting towards dividend stocks for defensive strategies amid uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3] ETF Inflows and Outflows - The top inflows on December 2 included the S&P Dividend ETF with 369 million yuan, Industrial Metal ETF with 282 million yuan, and Securities ETF with 250 million yuan [4] - Conversely, broad-based ETFs faced significant outflows, totaling 2.52 billion yuan, with the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF leading the outflows at 570 million yuan and 342 million yuan, respectively [7][8]