截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1872美元，高于前一交易日的1.1866美元；1英镑兑换1.3650美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3623美元。 新华社纽约2月13日电 美元指数13日微跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.01%，在汇市尾市收于96.922。 1美元兑换152.78日元，低于前一交易日的152.94日元；1美元兑换0.7679瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.7697瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3611加元，与前一交易日基本持平；1美元兑换8.9272瑞典克朗，高于前 一交易日的8.9226瑞典克朗。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:冯粒】 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Shanghai silver spot price on February 13 was quoted at 19822 yuan per kilogram, which is 40 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures main price of 19782 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a premium in the spot market [3] - The U.S. January employment data showed strong performance, which may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [3] - Treasury Secretary Bessent supports the Senate taking over the investigation into Powell rather than the Justice Department, indicating a shift in political dynamics that could impact market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index, influenced by signals from Russian President Putin regarding a return to the dollar system, may put pressure on precious metal prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressures, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, as indicated by Bessent, along with ongoing purchases of gold by multiple central banks, may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [3]

眼看人民币汇率一把冲到6.90，财经圈炸了锅。朋友圈、财经群、股市直播间，都有人在喊："外资来 了！人民币要起飞了！"一边是热烈的欢呼，一边是小心翼翼的疑问。 真的是这样吗？还是又一次短暂的上蹿下跳？这事儿细品一下，别光看数字。背后挺复杂。先说这波人 民币猛涨，到底是谁在背后"助推"？有人觉得是外资疯了，其实没那么简单。 美元最近有点"泄气"，美元指数跌到96.8。直接让其他货币有了喘息的机会。别的货币趁着美元休息的 档口，纷纷开始反弹。 人民币当然也抓住了机会，但底子厚才是真正的关键。全球货物贸易量第一，年年顺差，钱是实打实赚 来的。不是画出来的。所以汇率走强，先看家底，再看外部环境。 银行板块悄悄回暖，原本涨得猛的板块开始收敛。这其实是健康的板块轮动。但看成交量，萎缩得厉 害，散户资金净流出，大多数人还是在犹豫。没敢真正下场。 你要说这是"乐观"，其实更像暴风雨后的安静。谁都不敢轻举妄动。放眼全球，外部环境也没啥让人安 心的信号。 美股表面上反弹了两天，背地里对冲基金做空美股的规模却创了新高，尤其是科技板块。被抛得最狠。 资金都往医疗保健这些防御板块跑，明显是避险情绪浓。 最后才轮到国际资本的流动。再说， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to mixed market signals, including strong U.S. employment data and geopolitical risks [2][3]. - On February 13, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1104.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.1 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 1110.10 yuan per gram [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 5.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [1]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed a significant increase in employment, which exceeded expectations and led to a decrease in the unemployment rate, indicating resilience in the labor market [2]. - The labor department significantly revised down the projected non-farm employment numbers for 2025, removing most of the expected job additions for that year [2]. - The market is grappling with the credibility of the January data against the backdrop of the downward revision for 2025, resulting in high volatility in gold and silver prices [2]. Group 3 - New Century Futures indicates that gold prices are maintaining a volatile trend due to strong U.S. employment data, which undermines expectations for a rate cut in March [3]. - Concerns over AI disruption continue to pressure the dollar index, providing support for gold prices [3]. - A decrease in gold ETF holdings has weakened investment demand, while ongoing geopolitical risks and a trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remain long-term supportive factors for gold [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with significant fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. economic data and market conditions [1] Group 1: Gold Futures Market - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,072 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,123.94 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,130.38 CNY and a low of 1,087.32 CNY, currently trading at 1,110.10 CNY, down 1.61% [1] - Trading volume for the day was 3,035.68 lots, with open interest decreasing by 1,412 lots to 153,140 lots [1] Group 2: Market Influences - Last night, gold prices dropped sharply, with New York gold falling nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5,000 per ounce, which corresponded to a decline in Shanghai gold prices to around 1,100 CNY per gram [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed slight strengthening, and January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which led to a decrease in market rate cut expectations [1] - The Nasdaq index experienced a notable decline, indicating poor global market liquidity in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

新华财经纽约2月12日电美元指数12日上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.1%，在汇市尾市收于96.928。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1866美元，低于前一交易日的1.1882美元；1英镑兑换1.3623美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3637美元。 1美元兑换152.94日元，高于前一交易日的152.83日元；1美元兑换0.7697瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.7703瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3611加元，高于前一交易日的1.3561加元；1美元兑换8.9226瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的8.8813瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5043.15 with a change of -34.70 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 83.52 with a change of -2.58 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2160.00 with a change of 40.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1764.00 with a change of 31.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 62.84 with a change of -1.79 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13219.00 with a change of 49.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 96.91 with a change of -0.01 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.19 with a change of 0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.36 with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 152.75 with a change of -0.52 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.86 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 11795.47 with a change of -72.65 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 349.63 with a change of 7.53 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1076.18 with a change of -5.14 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16174.18 with a change of -62.00 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 504.96 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 0.00 [1]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（2 月第 6 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-02-13 00:21:07 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年策略研究经验。 | | 陈 | 振 | 威 ：（上海）资深分析师，香港中文大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 泽 | 蓁 ：（上海）资深分析师，上海财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 杨 | 清 | 源 ：（上海）高级分析师，西南财经大学硕士，2 年策略研究经验。 | | 毕 ...

最近，人民币汇率闹得挺大的动静，尤其是离岸市场那边，美元兑人民币直接冲破了6.90关口，这事儿 在2026年2月10日亚洲交易时段就发生了。 离岸人民币兑美元最高升到6.9060，在岸也破了6.92关口，最高到6.9112。中间价那天上调了65点，报 6.9458。 美元指数两连跌，掉到一周低位，这给人民币提供了上行空间。之前隔夜离岸人民币就破了6.92，是近 三年来的头一次。 人民币这波走强不是单方面的事儿，内外部因素都推了一把。 外资涌入是另一个大亮点。市场数据显示，北向资金通道持续净流入，A股优质个股走势稳健。债券市 场外资持仓也在增加，国债收益率小幅下行。 外资机构通过香港渠道买入人民币债券，资金从欧美账户划入，单日流入超千亿元。人民币国际化步伐 快了，在国际结算中的份额扩大，这让市场预期更稳定。 机构分析说，随着季节性结汇需求上升，出口企业春节前集中换汇，也推高了买盘。美元走弱，非美货 币集体上扬，这些都叠加起来，让人民币阶段性强势明显。 上周CFETS人民币汇率指数涨1.35，BIS货币篮子指数涨1.38，SDR篮子指数涨0.92。 不过，人民币会不会真开启"狂飙"模式，还得看后续。专家提醒，虽然 ...