中国外汇交易中心数据显示，11月11日，人民币对美元汇率中间价报7.0866，较前一日下调10个基点。 尽管有所调整，但自10月15日升破7.1以来，人民币对美元汇率中间价整体保持稳中偏强运行态势。其 中，11月7日人民币对美元汇率中间价报7.0836，创2024年10月16日以来新高。 Wind数据显示，上周（11月3日至11月7日）美元指数下跌0.17%，11月7日收盘报99.5477。11月10日美 元指数回升，当日收盘报99.6202。11月11日，截至记者发稿时，盘中最高升至99.739。 展望后期，王青分析，国际方面，美联储持续降息以及关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数上 行空间有限。不过，今年以来美元跌幅较大，对包括美联储降息等在内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有 较强的抗跌韧性；国内方面，虽然四季度外部波动对我国出口的影响或逐步显现，但是逆周期调节政策 适时加力将确保四季度经济运行基本稳定，这意味着经济基本面将为人民币汇率提供重要的内在支撑。 接下来人民币汇率仍将以稳为主，总体上会延续与美元反向波动、波幅相对较小的运行格局，快速升值 或大幅贬值的风险都不大。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券 ...

1. 比特币 4小时级别布林带呈现明显收缩特征，价格昨日自上轨承压回落，跌破中轨后于下轨（104600附近）获 得支撑，当前重回中轨（105000）附近震荡。这表明短期多空博弈激烈，市场仍处于104000-108000宽 幅震荡区间，关键支撑/阻力位未被有效突破。 MACD技术指标快慢线在零轴下方黏合，绿色动能柱缩 短，显示短期下跌动能减弱，但未形成明确金叉，反弹持续性需观查。4小时级别RSI自超卖区（30以 下）回升至50附近，中性区域徘徊，未出现超买/超卖信号，印证震荡格局。 •短线操作建议：结合布林带下轨支撑与RSI超卖反弹，建议回落至104500-104000区间分批布局多单， 目标看向布林带上轨106000-107000附近，低位多单可持有待区间上沿测试。 2.以太坊 4小时级别布林带持续收窄，价格围绕中下轨（3500-3560）反复拉锯，形成典型收敛三角形。昨日中轨 （3580）承压回落，显示短期多头力量不足，但3500整数关口支撑有效，未出现破位下行。反弹过程中 量能未显著放大，价升量缩特征明显，暗示上涨动能依赖空头回补而非主动买盘，需警惕假突破风险。 OBV指标能量潮线与价格同步震荡，未出现背 ...

就业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少1.1万个工作岗位。而上周的另一个数据系列，ADP则预计10月份私营部门增加4.2万个就业岗位。该数据旨在更接近地复制非农报告。#行情 数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线跳水，非美货币集体上涨，现货黄金小幅走高。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index rebounded to 99.55 in October, with a monthly increase of 1.76%. Most non-USD currencies declined, except for the ruble and the ringgit, while gold hit a yearly high before retracing, and commodity prices mostly fell [1]. Economic Data - US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected CPI of 3% year-on-year for September, compared to the expected 3.1%. Core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.4% [4]. - The labor market outlook is concerning, with September's non-farm employment and unemployment rate data delayed due to the government shutdown. The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000 [5]. - Consumer confidence continues to decline, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October at 53.6, below the expected 55, marking a fourth consecutive month of decline [5]. - Manufacturing showed signs of recovery, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October at 52.5, up from 52.2 previously [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in October, from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%. There were internal divisions regarding future rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed due to missing economic data from the government shutdown [10][11]. - The market's expectations for a December rate cut have diminished, with the Fed's hawkish stance providing support for the dollar [10]. Currency Performance - The euro weakened in October, failing to maintain its strength from September, dropping from a high of 1.1733 to 1.1534 by month-end, breaking below an upward channel formed since April 2025 [16]. - The Japanese yen faced pressure, with USDJPY rising 4.7% in October, reaching a high of 153.99, driven by expectations of delayed interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [19][20]. - The British pound also declined, down 2.2% in October, influenced by weak economic data and increased expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England in December [23][24]. - The Malaysian ringgit showed resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 and a trade surplus of 19.9 billion ringgit, despite external pressures [29][30]. Commodity Prices - Commodity prices generally fell, with notable declines in energy prices such as Brent crude oil down 0.60% and natural gas prices fluctuating [4]. - Gold prices retraced after reaching a yearly high, while other commodities like iron ore and steel also saw declines [4]. Outlook - The US economy may face a challenging environment with persistent labor market weakness and rising inflation pressures due to tariffs, leading to a potential stagflation scenario [14]. - The euro is expected to remain under pressure, with a forecasted trading range of 1.14 to 1.18 in November [16]. - The Japanese yen may continue to weaken if US economic data remains strong or if Japan's fiscal stimulus exceeds expectations, with a projected range of 151 to 158.5 for USDJPY in November [20]. - The British pound is likely to remain weak, with a trading range of 1.27 to 1.34 anticipated for November [24]. - The Malaysian ringgit is expected to continue its range-bound movement, with a forecasted range of 4.15 to 4.30 for USD/MYR [30].

本周二，印度卢比兑美元汇率延续了近期的平稳走势，维持在88.85附近窄幅波动。过去一周以来，该货币对始终在这一水平附近徘徊，市场交投略显清 淡。投资者正密切关注美国与印度之间贸易谈判的进展，期待双方能达成一项关键协议。 美印两国谈判代表近期多次释放积极信号，称协商已进入尾声，共识基本成型。然而，由于最终协议尚未正式落地，市场情绪仍偏谨慎，卢比走势受到一定 压制。周一，美国总统特朗普再次表达了对美印即将达成双边贸易协定的信心，并提到未来可能下调对印度商品的关税。不过，他未明确给出具体时间表， 仅表示双方"非常接近"达成一致。这一表态虽提振了市场乐观预期，但缺乏细节内容，使得投资者保持观望。 与此同时，美元指数在99.65附近持稳，整体波动有限。美国参议院近日通过了临时拨款法案，结束了持续数周的政府停摆，这一进展缓解了部分市场不确 定性。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，相关法案预计将于周三获得通过。 随着美国政府机构恢复运转，市场预计一批被推迟的经济数据将陆续公布，美元可能出现较大波动。投资者将重点关注就业市场表现，以判断美联储下一步 政策动向。目前，市场对美联储在12月会议上降息的预期概率为62.4%，显示多数交易 ...

Overall Information - Report title: "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report" [1][2][5] - Report date: November 11, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened higher and then fell back, maintaining a volatile trend during the day with little change in open interest. The recent decline of the US dollar index and the agreement in the US Senate to end the government shutdown have boosted market risk appetite. The spot premium has rebounded. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 87,000 yuan mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell back, with a weak intraday oscillation and open interest increasing first and then decreasing. The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. As aluminum prices rise, downstream purchasing willingness has declined. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with open interest increasing when prices fell and decreasing when prices rebounded. The weak industry continues to put pressure on nickel prices, and nickel prices have not recovered above the 120,000 yuan mark even when the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively strong. Continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 yuan level [8]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Cochilco data, Codelco's copper production in September decreased by 7% month-on-month to 115,600 tons. On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Aluminum**: On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. Related Charts Copper - **Base difference**: Chart 1 shows the copper base difference [13]. - **Domestic visible inventory**: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [14]. - **LME cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - **Base difference**: Chart 7 shows the aluminum base difference [24]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart 8 shows the aluminum monthly spread [30]. - **Domestic social inventory**: Chart 9 shows the electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26]. - **SHFE - LME ratio**: Chart 11 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 10 shows the electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32]. - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - **Base difference**: Chart shows the nickel base difference [38]. - **LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [40]. - **LME nickel trend**: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [41]. - **SHFE inventory**: Chart 16 shows the SHFE nickel inventory [43]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart shows the nickel monthly spread [45]. - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.4% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Regional Market Dynamics - The decline in the A-share market was not isolated, as stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region also exhibited a "high open, low close" pattern [5] - The initial high opening was influenced by a significant rise in the US stock market the previous night, but this was followed by a drop in various markets [6] US Government and Economic Data Concerns - Concerns regarding the US government "shutdown" and its potential impact on economic data have heightened, with expectations of a stronger US dollar attracting funds away from other markets [8] - The US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, but the final approval from the House of Representatives and the President is still pending [8] - Analysts express that the absence of economic data during the government shutdown may mask structural slowdowns in hiring, which could benefit the dollar [8] AI Hardware Sector - The AI hardware sector mirrored the overall market trend, showing a significant "high open, low close" pattern [9] - Concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector in the US have negatively impacted related stocks in the A-share market [12] - Notably, Michael Burry raised alarms about the overestimation of profits by major tech companies due to accounting practices, which could lead to a significant profit overstatement by 2028 [13] Fund Management and Investment Style - Recent adjustments in institutional fund management styles may lead to market volatility, as funds shift away from popular sectors [14] - The China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association has proposed guidelines to regulate theme investment styles, aiming to protect investors' rights [16] Emerging Opportunities in Cultivated Diamonds - The cultivated diamond sector emerged as a leader in market gains, with a closing increase of over 6% [17] - Demand for cultivated diamonds is driven by both consumer and industrial markets, with recent advancements in semiconductor cooling technology enhancing their perceived value [19] - Regulatory changes announced by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs may also impact the cultivated diamond industry positively [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium**: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - **Fruits and Others**: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].

成文日期: 20251106 报告周期:日报 ：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736) 铜期货日报:美元指数回落,铜价继 1. 期货及现货市场 周三 LME 铜价反弹,当日（20251106 周四）沪铜继续反弹,主 力 2512 合约收盘在 86320 元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨 650 元/ 吨，涨幅 0.76%；美元指数回落，铜价继续反弹。 美国 10 月 ADP 私人就业增长 4.2 万个为四个月最大增幅,同 时修正 9 月的数据由减少 3.2 万修正为减少 2.9 万。美国 ISM 非制 造业 PMI 指数 52.4, 上月为 50.0。数据整体大超预期激励市场情 绪。中美两国都落实了两国元首会晤成果,并宣布降低和暂停相关 关税。 周三美国金融市场修复了早前因美元流动性紧张引发的问题, 美元指数回落,会推动铜价反弹。过去几日,因为美联储在降息问 题上采取模糊策略导致美元指数持续走高，铜价回落。 美国联邦政府停摆进入第 36 天,打破美国历史上最长的停摆记 录。当地时间 11 月 5 日,参议院民主党领袖,致信特朗普,要求举 行两党会议,这标志着在经历了长期僵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.07% to 99.62, with mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] Currency Performance - The euro declined by 0.06% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1557 [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.10% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3176 [1] - The Australian dollar rose by 0.65% against the US dollar, at 0.6536 [1] - The US dollar strengthened by 0.46% against the Japanese yen, trading at 154.1325 [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.18% against the Canadian dollar, at 1.4021 [1] - The US dollar fell by 0.02% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8049 [1]