Group 1 - The September non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of around 50,000, indicating resilience in the U.S. job market [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, contrary to market expectations of it remaining at 4.3%, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts [1][2] - The capital markets reacted with an initial jump in U.S. Treasury prices following the data release, suggesting a possible signal for a rate cut in December, although there remains market uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a brief increase post-data release but quickly fell, indicating a growing market expectation for a weaker dollar and potential interest rate cuts [2] - In the metals market, copper and aluminum prices saw slight increases, while gold and silver prices remained stable, reflecting mixed market sentiments regarding interest rate changes [2] - The final decision on interest rates will depend on a comprehensive assessment of various factors, including unemployment rates, job growth, and wage trends, with Fed Chair Powell's decision being pivotal [2]

Core Insights - U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September, indicating a stronger-than-expected labor market performance [1] Economic Impact - The job addition figure of 119,000 is significant, especially considering the report was delayed for seven weeks due to the federal government shutdown [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2][6][7]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm employment data on November 20, 48 days late, and will not publish the October report, pushing the November data release to December 16 [2]. - Analysts predict a modest increase of 51,000 jobs in September, a recovery from August's 22,000, but with a wide range of estimates from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 105,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings projected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year [3]. - The labor market is experiencing a cooling trend, with the average monthly job additions from May to August at only 27,000, down from 96,000 in the first four months of the year [3][4]. Market Reactions and Predictions - The uncertainty surrounding the employment data has led to a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with current market expectations for a cut at 29.6% [6]. - If the September employment data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Fed, while a significant miss could increase the likelihood of a rate cut [6][8]. - Analysts note that the lack of timely economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, leading to increased internal disagreements [7]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing weakness in the labor market is prompting companies to adjust their workforce in response to economic uncertainties, as evidenced by rising layoff figures in September and October [5]. - The potential for a recession is heightened if employment data continues to show weakness, particularly if the unemployment rate rises [8].

ATFX汇评：今日21:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将补发9月份非农就业报告。9月份非农报告本应在10月3日公布，但由于美国政府10月份的停摆，发布日 期被大幅延后。同样被政府停摆延误的10月份非农就业报告尚无具体发布时间，有观点认为，由于基础数据没有采集，这份报告将永远无法公布。 ▲ATFX图 9月非农就业报告中最受关注的数据是新增非农就业人口，前值为2.2万人，预期值5万人，预期增幅较大，但绝对值仍偏低。2024年，美国月度新增非农 就业人口曾达到32.3万人的水平，不过，现如今2.2万人的增量，不及去年的零头。历史数据看，5月份开始，美国就业市场开始恶化，连续四个月新增非 农就业人口低于10万人，6月份甚至出现负值。主要原因是美国总统特朗普严厉打击非法移民，导致新增就业人口数据当中的移民成分骤减，还有美国AI 产业发展导致企业招聘力度下降。糟糕的就业局面已经促成美联储在9月和10月两次利率决议上宣布降息，如果局面无法改善，预计12月份美联储还有降 息动作。 9月小非农ADP的公布值为-3.2万人，低于前值5.4万人和预期值5万人，表现较差。ADP数据和非农数据联动，预计9月份新增非农就业人口数据仍有可能 ...

Group 1 - The average weekly layoffs in the U.S. reached 11,250, indicating a slowdown in the labor market momentum in the second half of October compared to earlier in the month [1] - The ADP report showed that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first increase after two months of decline, but the overall growth rate remains weak [1] - October's total announced layoffs by U.S. employers reached the highest level for the same month in over 20 years, raising concerns about the employment outlook [1] Group 2 - Due to the ongoing longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the official non-farm payroll reports for September and October have not been released, leading the market to rely on private data from ADP [2] - Goldman Sachs economists predict that if employees participating in the "government delayed resignation plan" are included, the overall non-farm employment in October may decrease by about 50,000, indicating further risks of labor market deterioration [2]

Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data may be overestimated, with a significant downward revision of 344,000 jobs in Q1 2024 due to the Birth-Death Model's lagging indicators[10] - The CES (Current Employment Statistics) data may have overestimated non-farm employment by approximately 635,000 jobs from January to August 2025, influenced by an increase in multiple jobholders and a decrease in unpaid leave[15] - The CES survey response rate has declined from 60% in January 2020 to 42.6% in March 2025, indicating a potential increase in statistical errors[13] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Since March 2025, the U.S. has seen a net loss of 1.48 million immigrant workers, while native labor supply has increased by 1.861 million[23] - The "native substitution" effect is unlikely to be sustainable due to the aging population and the inability of native workers to fill the gaps left by departing immigrants[33] - The labor market is experiencing a trend of declining hiring rates and slightly increasing layoff rates, with a pessimistic outlook on job switching due to low wage growth[20] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The cyclical industries, such as leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing, are showing significant employment slowdowns, with the construction sector particularly affected by a cooling housing market[40] - The leisure and hospitality sector has a high turnover rate, with a youth participation rate of 34.48% and a part-time rate of 44.1%, leading to a unique "high demand, high supply" balance[47] - Non-cyclical sectors like education and healthcare are facing downward risks, with the healthcare sector experiencing job losses of at least 70,000 in the past year due to policy changes and layoffs[29]

Core Insights - The U.S. jobs market is stable but not improving, indicating a stagnation that may persist in the near future [1] Employment Trends - Job growth has slowed down, with recent reports showing minimal changes in employment figures [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady, suggesting that while the market is not deteriorating, it is also not experiencing significant growth [1] Economic Implications - The stagnation in the jobs market could have broader implications for consumer spending and economic growth [1] - Analysts suggest that without substantial job creation, the overall economic recovery may face challenges [1]

Core Insights - The job market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, with a decline in job postings and mixed employment data indicating a cooling labor market [1][1][1] Employment Data - The number of job postings on Indeed has dropped to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, marking the largest gain since July 2025 and exceeding market expectations [1] - Revelio Labs estimates a reduction of 9,100 jobs in October, primarily due to layoffs in government sectors [1] - Challenger's report indicates that the number of layoffs in October reached 153,074, a year-on-year increase of 175%, the largest in seven months; year-to-date layoffs are up 65% [1] Market Commentary - UBS Group notes that ADP and Challenger data suggest a persistently weak labor market [1] - TS Lombard indicates that recent data does not show further deterioration in the employment market [1] - Inflation Insights highlights that despite net job growth reported by ADP, the increase remains weak, reflecting a struggling labor market [1] - Oxford Economics states that ADP data lacks national representativeness and should complement, not replace, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment surveys [1] - Bank of America observes that while the U.S. job market continues to slow, there has not been a substantial change compared to the already turbulent September [1] - EY emphasizes that either due to weak hiring demand or the emergence of new technologies like AI, business leaders perceive a reduced need for talent, which will be a future reality [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Remarks - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the need to ensure a robust job market [1] - Fed official Hamak acknowledges the cooling job market but notes that recent data remains healthy [1] - Fed official Mousalem mentions a slowdown in the job market, yet it remains close to full employment [1] - Fed Governor Milan describes the ADP data as a pleasant surprise, suggesting that pre-government shutdown employment trends persist [1] - Fed official Goolsbee points out that the Chicago Fed's new biweekly unemployment rate estimate indicates a potential rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in October, with most labor market indicators showing that the job market remains relatively stable [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, investors are seeking safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in gold prices [1] - Gold prices increased by over 1% during the day, briefly surpassing the $3990 mark, but ultimately closed at $3979.05 per ounce, up 1.19% [1] - Concerns over oversupply in the oil market led to a decline in crude oil prices, with WTI crude falling 1.28% to $59.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.27% to $63.32 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The U.S. ADP employment report for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, marking the largest gain since July 2025 and exceeding market expectations of 28,000 jobs [1] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October recorded a value of 52.4, the highest since February 2025 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that continuing interest rate cuts remain a reasonable approach, indicating ongoing trends in the employment market prior to the government shutdown [1]

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates a stronger-than-expected growth in private sector wages for October, suggesting that the labor market is not in imminent danger of collapse [1] - October saw an increase of 42,000 jobs, the largest gain since July 2025, surpassing the expected increase of 28,000 jobs [1] - The report highlights a mixed employment landscape, with certain sectors showing growth while others continue to experience job losses [4] Employment Changes by Sector - In October, the construction sector added 5,000 jobs, recovering from a loss of 5,000 jobs in September, with wage growth remaining steady at an annual rate of 4.5% [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 3,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 2,000 jobs in September, with wage growth slightly increasing to 4.8% from 4.7% [2] - The trade, transportation, and utilities sector experienced a significant increase of 47,000 jobs in October, rebounding from a loss of 7,000 jobs in September, with wage growth stable at 4.3% [2] Financial Services and Professional Services - The financial services sector added 11,000 jobs in October, recovering from a loss of 9,000 jobs in September, with wage growth remaining at 5.2% [3] - Conversely, the professional and business services sector lost 15,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 13,000 jobs in September, with wage growth unchanged at 4.2% [4] Economic Context and Future Outlook - The ADP report is seen as a critical indicator of the U.S. labor market, especially amid ongoing government shutdowns affecting the release of official employment data [4] - Economists advise caution in interpreting the ADP data due to its reliance on private sector payrolls, which may not fully represent the national employment landscape [5] - The Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about the labor market's weakening, with recent interest rate cuts reflecting this sentiment, although future rate cuts remain uncertain [5]