10月私人部门增加5.2万人，政府部门减少15.7万人，合计减少10.5万人。11月私人部门增加6.9万人，高 于预期5万人。分行业来看，商品生产部门新增1.9万人，其中制造业减少0.5万人（耐用品减少0.4万 人，非耐用品减少0.1万人）。服务业新增就业5万人，其中，教育和保健服务新增6.5万人（其分项医疗 保健和社会救助服务新增6.4万人）是私人服务业的主要贡献项。政府部门减少0.5万人。11月私人部门 整体就业扩散指数为56.8，制造业就业扩散指数为46.5。 ▍鲍威尔给非农"官方打折"，11月新增非农就业谈不上强劲。"低招聘"延续，但"低裁员"在10月和11月 有所变化。不过就12月美股公司会提到"Job Cuts"的次数来看，裁员规模并未恶化。 鲍威尔在12月议息会议上给非农"官方打折"，按照鲍威尔所言平均每月高估6万新增就业，则11月几乎 为0增长（Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there's an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000. So th ...

Overview - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in November, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][2]. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, a significant recovery from October's loss of 105,000 jobs [4]. - The private sector added 69,000 jobs in November, up from 52,000 in October, indicating a stable expansion despite government sector disruptions [3][5]. - The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from September, attributed partly to a rise in the labor participation rate to 62.5% [1][3]. Wage Growth - Hourly wage growth showed a decline, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October [1][4]. - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages fell from 4.2% in October to 3.1% in November [3][4]. Sector Contributions - The service sector remained the primary contributor to job growth, adding 50,000 jobs, with healthcare being a significant driver [3][5]. - The goods-producing sector saw a marginal improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily due to gains in construction, while manufacturing and mining continued to decline [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 slightly increased, with a 2 basis point rise to 60 basis points [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.16% [1].

（原标题：美国就业市场疲弱！交易员仍坚持押注：美联储在2026年会降息两次） 交易员仍坚持押注：美联储在2026年会降息两次。由于政府停摆，这次延后发布的就业数据带着不 少"注释条款"，因此即便上月新增就业好于预期，也很难让市场兴奋起来。对目前的利率预期而言，这 份数据显然不是障碍——市场定价比美联储官方口径更偏鸽。 分析师称，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯——这位此前曾准确预示12月美联储降息的政策制定者——表 示，他预计就业数据将显示劳动力市场"逐步降温"。现在看来，确实就是这么回事：没有出现断崖式恶 化，但走弱是肯定的——失业率上升、非农增速放慢、薪资增速走低，这些都能看出来。 【导读】美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%，10月就业减少10.5万人逊于预期 大家好，关注一下美国迟来的非农数据。 12月16日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，好于预 期，经济学家此前预计非农将增加4.5万人。而10月为减少10.5万人。9月失业率为4.4%，11月升至 4.6%，高于预期的4.5%。由于此前政府停摆导致无法事后补采数据，BLS未能发布10月失业 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜中银香港财富策略及分析处主管张诗琪指出，美联储利率点阵图及利率期货均显示， 美国明年仍处于降息周期，但两者所显示的降息幅度则有所不同。利率期货于会议前后的变化不大，市 场预计明年将降息两次，合共50基点，且较大机会于上、下半年各一次。反观利率点阵图，官员对明年 利率预期的分歧较早前明显扩大：七位官员认为无需降息、八位官员支持至少降息两次、四位官员则支 持降息一次。由于早前美国联邦政府停摆导致部份就业报告延后公布，若后续数据显示美国就业市场疲 软，不排除明年降息次数多于一次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The recent meeting revealed significant internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee, with 9 members supporting the 25 basis point cut and 3 opposing it, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since September 2019 [3]. - The Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while maintaining price stability is increasingly challenged, as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth and rising unemployment [3][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged ongoing inflation pressures due to recent tariff adjustments, describing them as a "one-time shock," while emphasizing that monetary policy does not have a preset path [4]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest two additional rate cuts in 2026, but the distribution of forecasts among Fed officials is highly varied, indicating uncertainty about future monetary policy [6][8]. - Analysts predict that the first half of 2026 may see concentrated rate cuts due to persistent labor market weakness, while the second half could enter a "wait-and-see" phase as economic conditions stabilize [6][8]. - The upcoming change in Fed leadership and the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 are significant variables that could influence future monetary policy decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets - The Fed's rate cut is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially leading to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lower costs for overseas education, shopping, and travel for consumers [10]. - Lower U.S. Treasury yields resulting from the rate cut may enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing capital inflows into emerging markets [10][11]. - The Fed's actions provide a favorable window for China's monetary policy to be more autonomous, with expectations of a resilient yuan and positive performance in Chinese assets amid a backdrop of moderate U.S. dollar liquidity [11][12].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year[3]. - The dot plot indicates that the median expectation for 2026 is only one rate cut, reflecting significant internal disagreement among officials regarding economic conditions[16]. - The Fed's economic forecast for 2025-2028 shows an upward revision of GDP growth to 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively[15]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Employment - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in September 2025, the highest since October 2021, with projections suggesting it may reach around 4.45% by late 2025[30]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, reflecting a slight downward revision from previous forecasts[15]. - The Fed's strategy may involve further rate cuts in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 cuts, primarily in the first half of the year, as the labor market remains weak and inflation stabilizes[29]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the Fed's announcement, market reactions included a rise in stock prices and a decline in the dollar index, indicating a more dovish market sentiment[23]. - The Fed's independence may face challenges due to political pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions[24]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish policy stance, although the overall committee may lean more hawkish due to changes in voting members[27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI technology on the employment market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding its effects on job creation and job displacement, especially in light of the recent government shutdown that disrupted data reporting [2][4]. Group 1: New Employment Trends - Policymakers are focusing on the "dual effect" of AI, which may boost economic output while potentially suppressing employment. Fed Chair Powell noted that AI and automation allow companies to achieve more with fewer workers, leading to a weaker labor market [4][17]. - Research from various Federal Reserve branches indicates that the net impact of AI on the job market is currently limited, but the future remains uncertain. For instance, a survey by the New York Fed showed that businesses expect layoffs and hiring reductions due to AI [19]. - Academic studies have not reached a consensus on AI's impact on employment, with some confirming job displacement effects, particularly for low-skill jobs, while others suggest that AI could create new job opportunities [28]. Group 2: New Employment Indicators - Two key indicators for tracking new employment numbers are the ADP Employment Report and the Revelio Labs Employment Report. The ADP report shows a downward trend in job additions, with figures of 24,000, 3,000, and -4,000 for September, October, and November respectively [34]. - The Revelio Labs report also indicates a decline in job additions, with numbers of 38,000, -15,000, and -90,000 for the same months, reflecting a weakening hiring trend [40]. - Three indicators for tracking unemployment rates include the Challenger Job Cut Report, which shows an increase in announced layoffs, initial and continuing unemployment claims, and Google search trends related to unemployment, which have risen recently [43][45][49].

2025.12.09 本文字数：4121，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间12月9日，为期两天的美联储议息会议在美国华盛顿特区正式召开。 外界普遍预计，美联储将连续第三次降息，因为美国就业市场正在发出警报信号。本次会议可谓看点十 足，表决可能再次出现多张反对票的情况，同时更新版经济预测如何预判就业和通胀前景，关键的点阵 图将如何表现，换届后是否会影响政策走向，如何通过资产负债表管理流动性等都将受到广泛关注。 几张反对票 自今年夏季以来，美联储政策制定者之间的分歧逐渐显现。当时，通胀缓解进程陷入停滞，就业增长同 时放缓，这使得"2%通胀率"与 "充分就业"两大核心目标陷入直接冲突。 另一位票委、波士顿联邦储备银行行长科林斯（Susan Collins）表示，考虑到经济的韧性，她认为当前 货币政策处于合适水平，对进一步降息 "持犹豫态度"。目前美联储基准政策利率处于3.75%-4%的区 间，她认为这一水平仅是温和限制性，且当前非常合适，能够对通胀保持一定下行压力。 蒙特利尔银行资本市场高级经济学家瓜蒂耶里（Sal Guatieri）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示："尽管 部分领域出现疲软态势， ...

Group 1: Employment Trends and AI Impact - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a chronic weakening trend, with job vacancies declining and new employment numbers decreasing[3] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the "dual effect" of AI, which may boost economic output while potentially suppressing employment[4] - Current academic research shows no consensus on AI's net impact on employment, with some studies indicating job displacement and others suggesting job creation[5] Group 2: Employment Indicators - The ADP employment report indicates a downward trend in new jobs, with figures of 24,000, 3,000, and -4,000 for September, October, and November respectively[8] - Revelio Labs reports a decline in new employment numbers, with figures of 38,000, -15,000, and -90,000 for the same months[8] - The Challenger report shows a rise in announced layoffs, with November's figure at 93,000, up from 98,000 in October[9]

Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Most developed countries' government bond yields have risen significantly, with the US 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 12.0 basis points to 4.14% [15] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.9% during the week, while the dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.98 [94] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.6% to $60.1 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices decreased by 0.6% to $4197.6 per ounce [33][94] Group 2: US National Security Strategy - The US released its 2025 National Security Strategy, emphasizing the protection of US territory and security in the Western Hemisphere as top priorities [62] - The strategy criticizes the decline of Europe and demographic changes, insisting that Europe must bear the primary costs of its own defense [62] - The importance of the Middle East has been downgraded, with a focus on avoiding re-engagement in prolonged ground wars [62] Group 3: Employment and Consumption Data - In November, ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 10,000, with weakness concentrated in small businesses [69] - The actual PCE consumption in September was flat at 0%, below the market expectation of 0.1%, indicating weakness in consumer spending [72] Group 4: Commodity Prices - The prices of most commodities rose, with LME copper increasing by 5.7% to $11,616 per ton and WTI crude oil rising by 2.6% [33][38] - The inflation expectations rose by 3 basis points to 2.26% [42]