Group 1 - The latest employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows a 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in July, with only 73,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below the expected range of 104,000 to 110,000 [1] - The revisions for May and June non-farm employment figures were substantial, with May's data revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs over these two months [3] - Concerns regarding the U.S. economy and employment situation have led to market volatility, with the dollar index dropping over 1%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 10 basis points, and all three major U.S. stock indices declining by over 1% [9] Group 2 - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 37.7% to 80.3% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. labor market is prompting discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last summer's policy trajectory, where a weak employment report led to a significant interest rate cut shortly after a meeting where rates were held steady [1][3][7]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - A surprisingly weak employment report has led to speculation about a repeat of last year's scenario, where the Fed maintained rates in July but cut them significantly in September following a disappointing jobs report [3][7]. - The July non-farm payroll data revealed a rapid cooling of the labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' figures being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential economic weakness [3][4]. - Following the weak report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90%, reflecting market expectations for a policy adjustment [4][6]. Group 2: Fed's Potential Actions - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, stated that the employment report provides evidence for the Fed to adjust rates in September, raising questions about the magnitude of the cut [4][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is estimated at 89.6%, while the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is considered to be negligible according to current futures market pricing [6][11]. - The upcoming employment report and two months of inflation data before the September meeting will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Economic Context and Concerns - Notably, the current economic context differs from last year, as inflation is a concern due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which may complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10]. - Timiraos highlighted that the key issue for the Fed is whether the economic fundamentals are genuinely deteriorating or if the recent slowdown is merely a temporary effect of policy changes [10].

美国7月非农就业人口增加7.3万人，低于预期值10.4万人，前值由14.7万人修正为1.4万人，5月和6月就 业人数累计下修近26万人。美国7月失业率升至4.2%，符合预期，前值为4.1%。数据显示，美国就业人 数增长放缓的幅度超出预期，进一步表明在广泛经济不确定性背景下，劳动力市场正转向低速增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. July non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide insights into the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with expectations, with a majority of committee members supporting this stance. The language in the statement has shifted to reflect ongoing economic uncertainty [2] - The ADP Research report indicates an increase of 104,000 jobs in July, surpassing the expected 76,000 and reversing the previous month's decline of 33,000 jobs [2] - The annualized GDP growth rate for the second quarter is reported at 3%, significantly higher than the expected 2.6%, and reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% [2] Employment Data Expectations - The July non-farm payroll is projected to increase by 110,000, a decrease from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - A non-farm payroll figure below 100,000, coupled with a rising unemployment rate, could indicate a weakening job market, potentially dampening hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [3] - Conversely, if the non-farm payroll exceeds 150,000, it may support a stronger dollar and diminish the likelihood of two interest rate cuts this year [3] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, facing resistance around the $3,320 level. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further downside risks [4] - The 100-day moving average provides initial support around $3,270, with a potential target of $3,240 if this level is breached [4] - Indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest a weakening bearish momentum, but no clear reversal has been established yet [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations[4] - There was a notable division regarding future rate cuts, with 2 dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut[8] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have become more uncertain, with the probability of 2 or more cuts dropping from 67% to 50%[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with a robust job market and moderate inflation pressures, allowing the Fed to remain cautious[11] - The actual GDP growth for the first half of 2025 averaged 1.3%, slightly above the Fed's median forecast of 1.4%[21] - Inflation data for June indicated a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.9%[42] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points and the 10-year yield by 4 basis points[31] - Most sectors in the S&P 500 declined, particularly materials, real estate, and energy, while utilities and information technology saw slight gains[35]

7月"小非农"超预期，但职位空缺急剧减少，为美国就业市场敲响警钟！今夜非农如何表现，快来金十 数据参与竞猜，赢现金红包大奖！ 相关链接 非农公布日，竞猜赢大奖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The July FOMC meeting was characterized by a lack of suspense regarding interest rates, as a rate cut was deemed unlikely based on inflation and employment data, yet it was filled with notable developments regarding internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The July FOMC meeting revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against maintaining the interest rate, a rare occurrence in nearly 30 years, indicating growing divisions within the Fed regarding economic risks and political pressures [5][6]. - Powell's language regarding economic forecasts has shifted, acknowledging a slowdown in economic activity while emphasizing the importance of labor market indicators, suggesting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Inflation - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has been a major concern for the Fed, with Powell indicating that without tariffs, the Fed might have already moved to cut rates further [9][12]. - Recent trade agreements have reduced tariff uncertainties, allowing the Fed to better assess inflationary pressures, with a target tariff range of 10-20% established, which is expected to mitigate inflation impacts compared to previous worst-case scenarios [12][13]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision-making may shift focus to economic growth if inflation remains moderate in the coming months, despite pressures from import costs and rising tariffs [15][16]. - Employment indicators will gain importance in Fed decisions, as labor market growth has slowed, influenced by both demand factors and immigration restrictions, necessitating close monitoring of unemployment rates and wage growth [16][18].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% after the July FOMC meeting, indicating a low probability of rate cuts in September[2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, significantly higher than Q1's -0.5% and above the 2024 forecast of 2.8%[6] - A 30% decline in imports contributed positively to GDP growth, while private investment negatively impacted GDP by 3.1% in Q2[6] Employment and Inflation - The labor market remains solid, with an average monthly job addition of 150,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%[9] - Inflation is still above the 2% target, with Powell noting that service sector inflation is easing but tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is low, with Powell emphasizing the need for more economic data to assess the impact of tariffs[14] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and maximum employment, rather than economic growth alone[14] - There were dissenting votes from two Fed officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 2020 that more than one official opposed Powell[14] Future Projections - The Fed may delay rate cuts until Q4, as it requires additional economic data to evaluate the effects of recent tariff negotiations[15] - If trade agreements are reached by August, the earliest potential rate cut could occur in October[15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]