1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Eleven - OPEC meeting production increase resolution landed, Fed rate - cut expectation in October rose again. Cost - end crude oil and LPG prices were under pressure, polyolefin overall profit was poor, and upper - middle stream inventory at high levels started to decline. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals was the divergence in the supply of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity). With the seasonal peak season, the LL - PP spread was expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [16][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: After the OPEC meeting during the National Day holiday, the production increase resolution was implemented, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October rose again [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil fell by 0.13%, Brent crude oil fell by 0.21%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 2.60%, ethylene fell by 4.69%, propylene fell by 4.40%, and propane fell by 10.08%. Oil prices fluctuated at a low level, and the impact of the cost - end was relatively small. The trading logic of the futures market was strongly affected by macro - sentiment [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.6%, up 3.89% month - on - month, 1.83% year - on - year, and 10.07% lower than the five - year average for the same period. PP capacity utilization was 77.29%, down 3.38% month - on - month, 0.25% year - on - year, and 9.92% lower than the five - year average for the same period. There was a divergence in the supply of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity) [16] - **Import and Export**: In August, domestic PE imports were 950,200 tons, down 14.17% month - on - month and 22.11% year - on - year. PP imports were 159,600 tons, down 22.23% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export peak season arrived. In August, PE exports were 116,000 tons, up 14.12% month - on - month and 61.83% year - on - year. PP exports were 250,200 tons, up 5.99% month - on - month and 32.77% year - on - year [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 9.60% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.00%, up 3.52% month - on - month and 1.90% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the level of the same period in previous years [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 382,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 15.11% and a year - on - year destocking of 18.21%. PE trader inventory was 46,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 20.25% and a year - on - year destocking of 8.43%. PP production enterprise inventory was 520,300 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 3.38% and a year - on - year destocking of 4.93%. PP trader inventory was 187,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 11.30% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 52.82%. PP port inventory was 66,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 10.28% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 0.91% [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2601) was (7200 - 7500), and for polypropylene (PP2601) was (6900 - 7200) [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [18] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The 2601 contract had a mismatch in production plans. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [64] 3.3 Cost - end - Crude oil prices fluctuated at the bottom. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all had different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [16][85] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - **Production Raw Material Proportion**: The production raw materials of PE included oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions [126][128] - **Capacity and Production**: The national PE capacity and production had changed over the years, and there were also new production capacity plans in 2025. Some projects had been put into production, and some were yet to be put into production [131][132] - **Capacity Utilization**: The PE capacity utilization rate had fluctuations over time [133] - **Maintenance Plan**: There were many PE maintenance plans, including planned and unplanned maintenance, and the current week's maintenance volume and return volume were also provided [138] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - **Inventory**: The total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE all showed different trends over time [142][145] - **Import**: The monthly and cumulative import volumes of PE had changed over the years [148][150] - **Export**: The monthly export volumes of PE and LLDPE also had different trends [153] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for polyethylene was mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc [160] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The overall downstream operating rate of PE and the operating rates of different downstream industries such as packaging film, pipes, and hollow products all had fluctuations [169][174] - **Related Indicators**: Indicators such as CPI and downstream demand cumulative year - on - year also provided information on the demand situation [165][167]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The global plastic additives market is on an upward trajectory, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% in consumption from 2024 to 2029, driven by growth in plastic - consuming end - use sectors and influenced by changing policies [2] - The domestic PE and PP markets show different trends in capacity utilization, and shipping freight indices have an impact on polyolefin investment [2] - Events such as the US federal government shutdown and changes in import volumes affect the polyolefin market [5] - Policies like the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" and oil price fluctuations influence the market [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: L2601 contract prices and regional LLDPE prices fluctuate. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, L2601 closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. Regional LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China showed weak adjustments [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: PP2601 contract prices and regional PP拉丝 prices also fluctuate. On 25 - 10 - 10, PP2601 closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Domestic PP market prices declined [1] Important Information - The global plastic additives market is growing, and the consumption of plastic additives is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The US federal government shutdown in October 2025 caused economic losses, with an estimated weekly loss of about $15 billion [5] - Seven departments issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added - value [8] Logical Analysis - Domestic PE capacity utilization has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, reaching 83.9%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Domestic PP capacity utilization has increased for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 77.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] - In August 2025, the net import of polyethylene decreased to 83.4 million tons, and that of polypropylene was - 2.9 million tons, with a difference of 86.3 million tons, which is favorable for the L - PP spread [5] - In September 2025, Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L [9] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies are recommended for L and PP contracts on different dates. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the L 01 contract should be watched, and the PP 01 contract should be lightly short - tried [2] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate levels. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the spread was +313 points [2][3] - **Options**: Generally, the option strategy is to watch [2][3][6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that due to the approaching long - holiday, cautious operation is recommended. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7130 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 29, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is in the peak season but still weaker than previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increased demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6780 (+30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7159 (-10), the basis is - 29 (+10). The PE comprehensive factory warehouse is 509,000 tons, and the social inventory is 535,000 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+30), the price of the 01 contract is 6893 (-5), the basis is - 113 (+35). The PP comprehensive factory warehouse is 520,000 tons, and the social inventory is 286,000 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has also been increasing, with a planned 11.0% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been relatively low and stable, and the consumption growth rate has shown an upward trend in general [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract's disk is weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut implemented, recent oil price fluctuations, the agricultural film demand entering the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being moderately high. For PP, the main - contract's disk is also weakly volatile, with the Fed's interest - rate cut, recent oil price fluctuations, stable downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand. Downstream production has increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 22, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but declined from July, the Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the oil price is volatile. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 127, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season; bearish factors are that the year - on - year demand is still weak [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% - 20.5%. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a production - capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7120 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7142 (37), the basis is - 22 (-67), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), and the social PE inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 6877 (35), the basis is - 127 (-65), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (3,000) [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are some bullish factors such as geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish overall, with similar bullish and bearish factors as LLDPE [4][7] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7150 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 45, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Considering the Fed's interest rate cut, volatile oil prices, the peak - season but still relatively weak demand for agricultural films, and the moderately high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The year - on - year demand is still weak [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but decreased compared to July, the Fed cut interest rates, and the oil price is volatile. The downstream market is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6780 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.9%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Given the Fed's interest rate cut, volatile oil prices, stable demand for downstream pipes and plastic woven products, and the moderately high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to be volatile today [7] - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - **Bearish Factors**: The year - on - year demand is still weak [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7105 (-25), the basis is 45, the import price in US dollars is 831 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7262 (-2), the import spread is - 112 (+2). The warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (unchanged), and the social inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6842 (-31), the basis is - 62 (+11), the import price in US dollars is 835 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7296 (-2), the import spread is - 516 (-18). The warehouse receipt is 13,413 (-64), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (unchanged), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (unchanged) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 23, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are also some bullish factors such as geopolitical instability and the approaching peak season for demand [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price has been fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but it is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,150 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 20, with a premium ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving is stable as they gradually enter the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,800 (0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -73, with a premium ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,150 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7,130 (-39), the basis is 20 (9), and the comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,800 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,873 (-41), the basis is -73 (41), and the comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7180（-40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差11，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support. The demand for agricultural films and downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics is gradually entering the peak season, but the year - on - year demand is still weak, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes, woven plastics, etc., is gradually entering the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 76, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics has improved, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [8] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The price of the spot delivery product is 7220 (-10), the price of the 01 contract is 7188 (-57), the basis is 32, the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10] - **PP**: The price of the spot delivery product is 6850 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6926 (-56), the basis is - 76, the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also increased. The import dependence has decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets. For both, the expected trend for the day is an oscillating one. The main influencing factors include geopolitical unrest in the crude - oil market, the approach of the demand peak season, and relatively weak year - on - year demand [4][7]. - The main logic behind the market movements is cost - demand factors and the push from domestic macro - policies [6][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films is picking up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 4, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved. Crude - oil prices are oscillating due to geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (- 0), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 120, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 575,000 tons (- 8,000), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season; however, year - on - year demand remains weak [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7230 (+50), the price of the 01 contract is 7234 (+2), the basis is - 4 (+48), the warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (- 14,000) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6970 (+4), the basis is - 120 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption have increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises is slowly recovering, with overall demand still weaker than in previous years, and other packaging films are mainly purchased on demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 35, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 50.9 million tons (+2.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. The demand for agricultural films is rising but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned. There is new PP production capacity being put into operation, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with expected improvements in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6900 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 61, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.2 million tons (+4.3), which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. There is new production capacity being put into operation recently, and there are expectations of improvement in downstream pipes, plastic weaving, etc. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factor is weak demand [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19].