Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may experience high - level volatility and adjustment in the short term, and the aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price and may also undergo high - level volatility and adjustment [5][72][75]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data supports the rebound of the US dollar index, increasing pressure on non - ferrous metals. The domestic "structural interest rate cut" and moderately loose policies help support the fundamentals, but market sentiment has weakened due to the high - level volatility of precious metals [5]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly, and the production volume has also increased. The downstream processing sector has shown differentiated performance among leading enterprises, with the overall operating rate increasing slightly due to pre - holiday inventory preparation. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate, but the inventory level is not high, and the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating production capacity has changed little, the social inventory has continued to accumulate but the inventory level is not high, and the processing end operating rate is expected to remain resilient [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The rebound of the US dollar index has increased pressure on non - ferrous metals, and the macro sentiment has weakened [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Aluminum Ore Supply - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic bauxite supply is tight. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.21% year - on - year, but the November output decreased by 5.26% year - on - year. The performance in different regions was significantly different. The northern region faced a phased supply shortage [20]. - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas bauxite supply may be relatively loose. In November, the import volume increased by 9.8% month - on - month and 22.3% year - on - year, with a significant increase in imports from Guinea [23]. 3.3.2 Alumina Market - The alumina market is expected to continue to have an oversupply situation. In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was 9800000 tons, and it is expected to reach 8600000 tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is released as expected, the oversupply will exceed 10000000 tons [27]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Production - In December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. It is expected that the operating production capacity will increase slightly at the beginning of next year, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [32]. 3.3.4 Aluminum Processing - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2% due to pre - holiday inventory preparation, but high aluminum prices restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the operating rate [35]. 3.3.5 Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 490000 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly by 10.79% to 143828 tons in the week of January 9 [45]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 15, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 749000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from Monday. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the pressure on aluminum prices is limited [49]. 3.3.6 Price and Premium - On January 19, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaobao aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium changed from a discount to a premium of 1.42 US dollars/ton [53]. 3.3.7 Recycled Aluminum - In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640400 tons, a decrease of 41800 tons month - on - month. Small and medium - sized enterprises faced raw material procurement difficulties, and the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly in January [56]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.2% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 51.5% year - on - year and decreased by 1.0% month - on - month. The import volume is expected to remain low in December [63]. 3.3.9 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of January 16, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 69300 tons, an increase of 1100 tons from last week, and the in - plant inventory was 60200 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from last week [68]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy price will follow the electrolytic aluminum price, and both may experience high - level volatility and adjustment [72][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [5][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data shows that in December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation [5][12]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. However, copper input materials including refined copper are not subject to the tariff, which eases the concern of copper flowing to the US and weakens the support for copper prices [12]. - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [13]. - China's State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, and the central bank introduced a series of measures to support high - quality economic development. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [17]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the registered warrants of LME have dropped sharply [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The rebound of the US dollar index increases the pressure on non - ferrous metals, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Mine Supply**: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was severely disrupted by various events, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap. The gap may further expand in 2026 and turn to a loose state in 2027 [21]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of January 9, the My steel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 44.81 dollars/ton dry, down 0.08 dollars/ton dry from the previous week. The strike at the Chilean Mantoverde copper mine intensifies the market's concern about supply shortages [24]. - **Electrolytic Copper Output**: In December, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The estimated output in January 2026 was 1.1636 million tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [28]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In November, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.9%. However, it is expected that the scrap copper supply will tighten in 2026 due to increased global demand [32]. - **Copper Rod Production**: In December 2025, the production of domestic copper rods decreased by 16.61% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In January 2026, the production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the overall increase was limited [36]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: As of January 15, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 2,950 yuan/ton, which is still at a high level, not conducive to refined copper consumption [39]. - **Copper Inventory**: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and SHFE copper inventory increased significantly. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper also accumulated [50]. - **Copper Spot Premium**: On January 15, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around - 120 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount. The LME0 - 3 spot premium was around 37.6 dollars/ton, with an expanded premium [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range, and attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [57].

宏观新闻 据CME"美联储观察"消息：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为4.4%，维持利率不变的概率为95.6%。到3 月累计降息25个基点的概率为27.6%，维持利率不变的概率为71.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.1%。 51bxg统计数据显示，12月国内300系不锈钢粗钢产量约为171.6万吨，环比11月减少4.8万吨，减幅 2.7%，同比减少10.1万吨，减幅5.6%。1月排产数据，300系产量175.9万吨，环比增加4.3万吨，增幅 2.5%。 12月粗钢产量的下降，主要原因有两方面：一方面，前期供需矛盾压力下，12月钢厂减产实质落地，通 过"限量分货+可观返利"政策，控制现货资源到货，直接体现在近期300系库存的持续去化。另一方面， 12月作为传统消费淡季，下游家电、建筑装饰等领域开工率维持低位，对高价资源接受度有限，大批量 囤货意愿不足，需求疲软倒逼供应收缩。 整体来看，原料镍铬价格上涨以及库存的消化为现货价格提供支撑，叠加宏观政策进一步刺激内需，预 计短期市场或维持高位震荡运行。中长期来看，若春节前后下游需求的复苏力度不及预期，无法消化1 月的产量增量，市场库存或小幅累积，现货价格面临承压 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.57% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.17%/本周变动-0.33BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.35% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.27% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数下 | 本周点评：本周国债期货集体走强，央行开展结构性降 | | | 跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。四期指亦表现分化， | 息将激励并引导商业银行将信贷资源精准投放国家重点 | | | 中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。周一公布的12月通胀数据 | 领域及薄弱环节，实现货币政策"精准滴灌"，并服务 | | | 进一步修复带动市场上行；周三公布的进出口数据显示， | ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日 行业研究 M2 增速升至 8.5%，财政货币一揽子政策蓄势待发 ——2025 年 12 月份金融数据及财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 信贷投放较早呈现年末收官特征——2025 年 11 月 份金融数据点评 贷款增长再现"小月"，社融与货币降速——2025 年 10 月份金融数据点评 事件： 贷款熨平波动，货币持续活化——2025 年 9 月份 金融数据点评 社融遇拐点，货币见活化——2025 年 8 月份金融 数据点评 1、2026 年 1 月 15 日，央行公布了 12 月金融统计数据，数据显示： （3）新增人民币贷款 9100 亿，同比少增 800 亿，增速 6.4%，同 11 月末持平； 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax refund policy for taxpayers selling their own homes and purchasing new ones within one year, with full refunds for new purchases equal to or greater than the sale price of the old home [2] - The Ministry of Finance held a video conference to promote a package of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, emphasizing the need for simplified processes and effective implementation [2] - The Anhui Provincial Government issued measures to support entrepreneurship, allowing a maximum investment loss tolerance of 80% for provincial angel funds [2] - The State Administration of Taxation exposed two tax evasion cases involving online anchors, indicating a crackdown on tax violations in this sector [2] - The U.S. State Department suspended visa processing for 75 countries to combat potential public burden applicants [2] - The situation between the U.S. and Iran remains tense, with potential military actions being discussed [2] - Chinese banks have accelerated capital replenishment, with 39 institutions changing their registered capital or plans, primarily through targeted stock issuance [2] - The Japanese government plans to take action against excessive speculation in the foreign exchange market [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - China's foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports by 0.5% [5] Company Insights - Tianli Lithium Energy's subsidiary will undergo maintenance from January 14 to February 28, 2026, reducing lithium iron phosphate production by 1,500 to 2,000 tons, but not significantly impacting operations [5] - Zhuoyi Information's stock price has deviated significantly from market trends, raising concerns about speculative risks [5] - Huazheng New Materials expects a net profit of 260 million to 310 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses due to market expansion and cost reduction efforts [5] - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, with net profit rising by 38.46% [5] - Hu Silicon Industry anticipates a net loss of 1.53 billion to 1.28 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a worsening financial situation compared to the previous year [5] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry may see a second growth curve with the concept of space photovoltaic technology, which could significantly increase demand for solar energy in space applications [7][8] - The current leading technology for space photovoltaic is gallium arsenide, but its high production costs may lead to the adoption of P-type HJT technology, which is more suitable for space conditions [9] - Perovskite tandem batteries are expected to become a key option for future space photovoltaic applications due to their high efficiency and lightweight characteristics [10] - The short-term growth in low-orbit satellites is expected to drive demand for space photovoltaics, with HJT and perovskite technologies being favored for their adaptability to extreme environments [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, bond and stock market trends. It shows that in 2025, China's foreign trade reached a record high, and various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture have different price and market changes. The financial market also experiences policy - driven and market - based adjustments [2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1] - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24,888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan [1] - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing 6.1% and imports growing 0.5% [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading rules for lithium carbonate futures LC2701 and polysilicon futures PS2701 contracts [2] - On January 14, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - On January 15, spot silver hit a record high of $93.68 per ounce. On January 14, domestic silver futures rose 8% [4] - Tungsten prices continued to rise in 2026. On January 14, black tungsten concentrate prices exceeded 500,000 yuan per ton [5] - In December 2025, China's rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year to 4,392 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In December 2025, China's steel product exports reached 11.3 million tons, and annual exports increased by 7.5% to 119 million tons [7] - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 1.8% to 1.26 billion tons [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US government expects more Venezuelan oil to enter the market in the coming days and weeks [9] - OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day and predicted 1.34 million barrels per day for 2027 [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In early January, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with live pigs hitting a new high since September 2025 [10] - In early January, soybean prices fell by 2.12% month - on - month, and cotton prices rose by 1.97% month - on - month [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 14, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan [13] - On January 15, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with an additional 300 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15 to introduce the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high - quality economic development [15] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached a record high, and the government continued to promote fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand [15][16] - The three - department deployment regulates the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile in the morning, and bond yields mostly declined in the late session [23] - The exchange - traded bond market showed that most of the Vanke bonds were weak [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9734 on January 14, up 31 points [28] - The US dollar index fell 0.11% in New York trading [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that during the new debt - resolution cycle, the transformation of urban investment platforms will shift from quantity reduction to quality improvement [29] - CICC believes that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in January and may cut rates in March [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On January 14, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a turnover approaching 4 trillion yuan [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% [32] - Regulatory authorities put forward three - pronged supervision requirements for fund dividends [33] - The single - day trading volume of domestic ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan on Wednesday [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved recently. Although the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to 1,500 trucks, the auction enthusiasm for coking coal has increased. The downstream has a certain replenishment demand due to low inventory, and the rise in spot prices may accelerate the downstream replenishment rhythm. However, the front - end of the market has maintained a certain premium, and the far - month contract performs slightly better than the near - month contract. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,170 - 1,240 in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,196.5, a 0.46% increase compared to the daytime session opening. The main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,738.5, a 0.37% decrease compared to the daytime session opening. In the night session, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,1193.5, a 0.25% decrease compared to the daytime session closing. The main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,750.0, a 0.66% increase compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - The Ministry of Finance held a meeting to promote a package of policies for fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand, requiring local fiscal departments to implement the policies effectively [1] - The US White House announced a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.8%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 tons, a 1.2 - ton increase from the previous week, and the inventory of clean coal was 335.1 tons, a 15.5 - ton increase from the previous week [1] - On January 14, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District market rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong - fat coal was 1,220 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved. Despite the return of Mongolian coal customs clearance to 1,500 trucks, the auction enthusiasm for coking coal has increased. The downstream has replenishment demand due to low inventory, and rising spot prices may speed up the replenishment rhythm. The front - end of the futures market maintains a premium, and the far - month contract performs better [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the main coking coal contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,170 - 1,240 [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with relevant departments, held a video conference to promote a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need for streamlined processes and effective policy implementation [3] - The Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a tax refund policy for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within one year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15, 2026, to discuss the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high-quality economic development [4] Group 2 - According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 3.8%, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the financing margin ratio for securities purchases, increasing the minimum margin from 80% to 100% [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments held a meeting to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing innovation and quality while resisting price wars [6] Group 3 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that in 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, with new energy vehicle sales exceeding 16 million units [7] - Shanghai's Economic and Information Technology Commission and other authorities issued an action plan to promote high-level autonomous driving technology, aiming for large-scale application by 2027 [8] Group 4 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reported significant stock price fluctuations for Guosheng Technology, leading to regulatory measures against certain investors [10] - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is investigating Sunflower's restructuring plan for potential misleading statements [11] - Zhaoyi Information indicated that it may apply for a trading suspension if its stock price continues to rise abnormally [12]