【环球网财经综合报道】公开数据显示，针对日本国债的抛售正在持续加速。东京债券市场上，日本新 发10年期国债收益率上升至1.970%，为2007年6月以来高水平；20年期国债收益率升至2.95%，创历史 新高。 时事通信社发文称，由于预计日本银行（BOJ）下周将加息，国债承受压力。日本银行行长上田康夫 （Kazuo Ueda）则在12月1日表示，12月18日至19日的会议中，他们将权衡提高政策利率的利弊，并作 出适当的决定。 华泰证券近日发布研报认为，日本在通胀高企、即将推出新一轮财政刺激的背景下，如果日央行继续推 后加息，通胀和利率"失锚"的风险更大。目前，鉴于日央真实利率转负已达4年、日本央行货币政策公 信力大幅下降，长期国债利率波动均在所难免，利率易涨难跌，而利率波动可能殃及汇率和权益资产定 价。 研报还提到，如果日央行更快地推进货币政策正常化，将有助提高日本宏观政策的公信力，稳定通胀预 期，降低长端国债所隐含的风险溢价，反而有助于部分对冲财政刺激所带来的收益率上行压力。 ...

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．日本央行预计对未来加息采取"建设性模糊"策略 日本央行预计将在未来加息路径上采取"建设性模糊"策略。报道称，行长植田和男近期就中性利率估计发出了较以往更清晰的指引信号。目前，日本央行 评估名义中性利率位于1%至2.5%的区间。鉴于市场已几乎完全定价日本央行将在12月将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，部分市场参与者据此推测，日本 央行可能会上调中性利率估计，以释放未来仍有继续加息空间的信号。 尽管市场产生此类预期，多名前日本央行官员认为，央行不太可能公布明确的中性利率数字。前日本央行首席经济学家龟田诚策表示，在高度不确定性 下，央行更倾向于通过"建设性模糊"方式保留政策灵活性，而非给出可能束缚自身的具体数字。他预计植田和男最多会指示中性利率在宽幅区间内的大致 位置。 前日本央行官员、现任摩根大通日本首席经济学家藤田彩子预计，日本央行将强调1%仅为预估区间的下限，并暗示实际中性利率可能更高。但她同时指 出，央行仍会表示无法确知中性利率的真实水平，并可能希望市场将其定价在1.5%左右，从而实现预期管理。 报道称，在主要央行中，日本央行并非唯一对披露中性利率细节保 ...

据知情人士透露，日本央行已准备在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息，前提是在此期间经济或金融市场没有发生重大冲击。知情人士称，日本央行还将表 示，如果其经济展望得以实现，将继续加息，同时对最终会将利率推高到什么程度保持谨慎。受此消息提振，日元走强。截至发稿，日元兑美元汇率涨 0.36%，至1美元兑154.58日元。 知情人士补充称，日本央行在做出最终政策决定前，将继续仔细筛选最新数据和信息，直到最后一刻。美联储将于下周公布的利率决议以及关于美国利率前 景的任何信号都可能影响市场及日元。 知情人士表示，日本央行官员们认为，在本月政策会议上将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%的可能性很高。若日本央行届时如期加息，将使日本的政策利率 升至1995年以来的最高水平。隔夜互换指数显示，交易员认为日币央行本月加息的可能性约为90%。而在一周前，这一概率还不到60%。 与此同时，市场的关注点在于，日本央行将如何积极地暗示进一步加息。知情人士表示，随着美国关税影响更加明朗，以及企业利润持续高企为企业提供了 提高工资的余地，日本央行官员们评估认为，他们的经济展望实现的可能性有所增加。知情人士称，日本央行可能会暗示需要审查经济对每次加 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 作者：电报君 1. 12月4日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普期货涨 0.09%，纳指期货涨0.03%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐涨。欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.45%，英国富 时100指数涨0.11%，法国CAC40指数涨0.43%，德国DAX30指数涨0.78%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨 0.56%，报59.28美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.48%，报62.97美元/桶。纽交所黄金跌0.11%，报4227.8美元/盎 司。 市场消息 1、美联储12月降息几无悬念，但双重使命均陷困境，加上FOMC内部鹰鸽之争及其人事 大变局，令分析师在2026年降息预期上出现显著分歧。 2、众议院议长约翰逊态度大转弯，叫停曾支持 的议员炒股禁令，担忧该禁令将成为参选阻碍。 3、惠誉评级在其12月的全球经济展望中表示，随着日 本央行预计将继续推进货币政策立场的正常化，日元存在一定的升值空间。 4、英国能源监管机构天然 气和电力市场办公室宣布，将拨款280亿英镑，供企业投资于能源网络的稳定性、安全性和韧性。 5、 欧盟宣布2027年秋季全面禁止进口俄 ...

通过提及某次具体政策会议，植田和男很可能在暗示届时采取利率行动的可能性正在上升。回顾去年12月末，这位日本央行行长曾明确承诺会在下次 会议上仔细评估经济状况——而正是那次会议上，日本央行最终决定加息。 在植田和男周一发表讲话之前，就已有多位日本央行官员表态暗示日本央行可能即将加息。最新加入日本央行政策委员会的增田一之表示，加息时点 正在逼近。另一名委员会成员小枝淳子也表示，日本央行应推动政策正常化，尽管她并未表态下一步行动是否应在12月进行。就连鸽派成员野口旭上 周也指出政策调整过晚的风险正在上升。 智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，若日本央行决定在12月加息，高市早苗政府的主要官员不会试图阻止，尽管一些高级官员反对这一加息时机。 在市场对日本央行将于12月19日政策会议上加息25个基点的预期日益升温之际，日本政府的这一立场增加了该国央行在本月加息的可能性。截至发 稿，美元兑日元汇率下跌，至1美元兑154.81日元。日本两年期国债收益率则涨至1.022%。 日本央行12月加息"箭在弦上" 周四已有媒体援引三位日本政府消息人士报道称，日本央行很可能在本月加息，并且日本政府将容忍这一举措。尽管日本央行独立于政府 ...

融环境依旧宽松。他补充说，当前的加息并不是"踩刹车"，而是为确保通胀稳定在2%目标附近所做的必 要准备。他同时警告，如果加息过晚，日本可能面临更严重的通胀压力，被迫更激烈地调整政策。 机构观点方面，野村证券关注两个关键信号：一是植田对于明年春季工资谈判的最新评估。如果他对薪资 上涨表达乐观态度，市场将把这视为12月加息的强烈暗示；二是若他上调对核心通胀的判断，意味着通 胀已更接近2%，将被视为进一步的鹰派倾向。 华侨银行策略师亦指出，市场对日本央行即将加息的押注正在推升日元，但日元能否持续反弹仍取决于更 明确的政策指引。该行认为，植田的讲话更像是潜在加息前的"赛前准备"，12月或1月采取行动的可能性 正在上升。华侨银行预计日本央行将在12月加息，但随后的加息进程仍可能非常缓慢。若要支撑日元的 持续复苏，央行需提供更强指引，同时政府需展现更严格的财政纪律。 欢迎长按识别下方二维码， 日本央行行长植田和男本周一（12月1日）在名古屋举行的新闻发布会上明确表示，日本央行将在12月18 日至19日的货币政策会议上讨论加息的可能性。他进一步指出，希望在将政策利率提升至0.75%后，再进 一步阐述未来的加息路径。作为全球 ...

新华财经北京12月2日电（王姝睿）市场避险情绪日内降温，日元维持弱势，但日本央行的政策转向预 期使其跌势受到明显限制。分析称，日本央行加息的预期日益高涨正在提振日元，但要实现日元的持续 复苏还需要更多行动。 荷兰合作银行分析师Jane Foley预计，由于市场预期日本央行将于12月19日加息，美元兑日元汇率可能 在三个月内跌至147。尽管政策制定者已暗示加息的可能性很大，但投资者一直对加息时机持观望态 度。会议前公布的数据，包括第四季度短观报告，仍然至关重要。不过，除非数据表现非常疲软，"否 则日本央行不会改变其信号"。 日本央行近期释放的信号强化了市场对12月加息的押注。日本央行行长植田和男周一指出，"日本的经 济与通胀前景正逐步满足货币政策正常化的条件。" 植田和男在名古屋对商界领袖发言时表示，日本央行将通过审视国内外的经济、通胀和金融市场状况， 综合考量加息利弊后做出适当决定。这一表态被市场解读为最直接的加息"预告"，这些前瞻指引旨在避 免政策突变对市场造成冲击。植田和男同时指出，任何加息都将仅仅是对宽松程度的调整，当局将基于 全面评估做出恰当决策。 植田和男强调，日本央行正通过总部与分支机构"积极"收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has announced a significant bond issuance plan to fund a new economic stimulus package, raising concerns about fiscal discipline and market reactions to rising bond yields [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plan - The Japanese cabinet approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen, with 11.7 trillion yen to be covered by new bond issuance [1]. - The government plans to increase the issuance of 2-year and 5-year government bonds by 300 billion yen each, and significantly raise the issuance of short-term treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [1][3]. - The total bond issuance for the fiscal year will reach 40.3 trillion yen, a decrease of approximately 4.3% from the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline have led to a rise in long-term bond yields to their highest levels in over two decades [4]. - The demand for 2-year government bonds was weak during the recent auction, with yields climbing to 0.97%, the highest since 2008 [1][5]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 3.53, lower than the previous auction and the 12-month average, indicating reduced investor demand [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The issuance strategy focuses on short-term debt to minimize market impact, as the demand for ultra-long-term bonds has been declining [3]. - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with traders estimating a 57% chance of action in the coming month [5][7]. - Recent economic data, including stable inflation and unexpected increases in industrial output, are supporting the case for a rate hike [7].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has intensified, leading to a decline in demand for Japanese two-year government bonds, as evidenced by lower bid ratios and increased tail spreads in recent auctions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The bid-to-cover ratio for the recent two-year bond auction was 3.53, down from 4.35 in the previous auction and below the 12-month average of 3.66 [1]. - The tail spread for the auction reached 0.012, significantly higher than the previous auction's 0.002, indicating weaker demand [1]. - The yield on two-year government bonds rose to 0.977%, the highest level since 2008, reflecting market reactions to the BOJ's potential policy changes [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above the median forecast of 2.7%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. - Industrial output in October increased by 1.4%, far exceeding market expectations of a 0.6% decline, indicating stronger economic performance [4]. - Early signs from labor negotiations suggest robust wage growth, with Japan's largest labor union aiming for a 5% increase in 2026, supporting the case for further rate hikes [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Officials' Statements - Former BOJ official Kazuo Ueda indicated that the recent depreciation of the yen increases the likelihood of a rate hike in December, suggesting that no significant negative signals are needed to justify such a move [5]. - Political pressure to maintain low interest rates appears to be easing, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration likely to support BOJ's rate normalization efforts [5]. - New BOJ policy committee member Masayoshi Amamiya noted that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, reflecting a shift in the central bank's stance [5]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are cautious ahead of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's upcoming speech, which is anticipated to provide insights into the central bank's interest rate trajectory [6]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation, including a projected supplementary budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen for FY2025, are contributing to investor apprehension [6]. - Major dealers are requesting increased issuance of shorter-term bonds while reducing long-term bond issuance, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is signaling a potential shift from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, with indications that interest rate hikes could begin as early as December, amidst a backdrop of a weakening yen and rising inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The BOJ has adjusted its communication strategy to focus on the inflation risks posed by the weak yen, preparing the market for a possible interest rate hike in December [2]. - A recent survey indicates that just over half of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates at its next meeting on December 18-19, with projections suggesting rates could rise to 0.75% by March next year [2]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 1.821%, reflecting investor re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy outlook [2]. Group 2: Government Stimulus and Economic Impact - The Japanese government has announced a massive stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, financed by issuing at least 11.5 trillion yen in new debt, marking the largest fiscal stimulus since the easing of pandemic restrictions [3]. - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy, especially as government debt exceeds twice the GDP [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Dilemma - There exists a "policy deadlock" where the need for low interest rates to support fiscal stimulus conflicts with the increased debt burden that would result from rate hikes [4]. - The lack of normalization in monetary policy amidst high inflation could heighten the risk of inflation detachment, while concerns over fiscal sustainability may elevate risk premiums on long-term Japanese government bonds [5]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - Japan's economy has already shown negative growth in Q3, a direct impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting the automotive sector [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [5]. - The volatility of the yen is influencing the broader Asian financial markets, with the Korean won showing heightened sensitivity to fluctuations in the yen [5]. Group 5: Potential for Currency Intervention - Japanese officials have reiterated their readiness to respond to excessive market volatility, echoing language used prior to significant interventions in the past [6]. - There is a risk of unexpected government intervention in the currency market, which could be considered a "black swan" event [5][6]. Group 6: Global Monetary Policy Dynamics - A successful rate hike in December could reshape asset pricing in Japan, marking a historic divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, as both countries may adopt opposing monetary stances for the first time in decades [7]. - This convergence of policies could redefine the role of the yen within the global monetary system [7].