Market Insights - President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and described the discussions with Chairman Powell on interest rates as "very productive," indicating a close observation of the committee's rate-setting process [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its interest rate cuts for the first time since June 2024, highlighting trade disputes as a major source of policy uncertainty [1] - The EU member states voted to impose counter-tariffs on $93 billion worth of U.S. products, which will automatically take effect if trade negotiations fail by August 7 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the services PMI rose to 55.2, marking the highest since December 2024 [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, with the services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.2, pushing the composite PMI to 51, above market expectations [2] - South Korea's GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, driven by a recovery in consumption and improved exports [2] Commodity and Currency Markets - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $3,371.3 per ounce, while silver futures decreased by 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures rose by 1.39% to $66.16 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.96% to $68.48 per barrel [5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged amidst a 2% inflation rate and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade negotiations, marking the first such decision in over a year [2][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The ECB's deposit rate remains at 2%, aligning with the expectations of most analysts [2]. - The decision comes after eight rate cuts since June 2024, raising questions about whether the easing cycle has ended or if further cuts are forthcoming [2][6]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank is well-positioned to address challenges beyond trade disputes, such as a strengthening euro and upcoming public spending increases [2][6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The ECB noted that despite global challenges, the Eurozone economy shows resilience, with inflation currently at the mid-term target of 2% [7][8]. - External uncertainties, particularly trade disputes, continue to pose risks to economic stability [8][9]. - The ECB's future monetary policy adjustments will depend on data assessments and will follow a "meeting-by-meeting" decision-making approach [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the ECB's announcement, there were no significant changes in the euro exchange rate or stock markets [3]. - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which may exert new pressures on inflation and consumer price growth [6].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the first time in over a year that rates have not been changed, aligning with market expectations [1] - The ECB's statement highlights that inflation is currently at the mid-term target level of 2%, but the economic outlook remains highly uncertain due to factors such as trade disputes [1] - There is speculation among investors that the ECB may lower rates by 22 basis points by the end of the year, with a final 25 basis point cut anticipated in September [1] Group 2 - The ECB's meeting coincides with a critical deadline for U.S. tariffs, with reports suggesting optimism about reaching a 15% tariff agreement [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has warned of stagnation in economic growth for the second and third quarters due to businesses preparing for potential higher tariffs [2] - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which could exert upward pressure on consumer prices, prompting concerns from various ECB officials about inflation potentially remaining below target levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, awaiting clarity on Trump's tariff policies and the overall economic environment [3][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On July 24, the ECB decided to keep the deposit rate at 2%, marking the first time in over a year that rates have not been cut. This decision aligns with the expectations of most analysts [3]. - The ECB has not provided guidance on future policy paths due to uncertainties surrounding tariff levels and trade negotiations [3]. Economic Context - Current inflation is at the ECB's mid-term target of 2%, and despite global challenges, the Eurozone economy shows resilience. However, external uncertainties, particularly from trade disputes, remain significant [3][7]. - The ECB's President, Christine Lagarde, indicated that the bank is well-positioned to address challenges beyond trade disputes, such as the strengthening euro and upcoming public spending increases [3]. Market Reactions - Following the ECB's announcement, there were no significant changes in the euro exchange rate or stock markets [4]. Future Expectations - Investors anticipate a cumulative rate cut of 22 basis points by the end of the year, with a potential final cut of 25 basis points expected in September [3]. - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, warned that economic growth could be nearly zero in Q2 and Q3 due to companies preemptively purchasing to avoid higher tariffs [6]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which could exert new pressures on inflation and suppress consumer price increases. The ECB forecasts that inflation will be below target next year [6].

金十数据7月24日讯，分析师Mark Schroers表示，整体来看，这份简短的声明在通胀与增长方面传递出 相对乐观的基调。声明指出，消费者物价涨幅已达到目标，最新数据大致符合预期，同时"经济迄今表 现出较强韧性"。但其中也提出了一个重要的警示："与此同时，整体环境依然极度不确定，特别是由于 贸易争端所致。" 市场分析：欧洲央行声明整体乐观 ...

欧洲央行：环境仍然异常不明朗，尤其是由于贸易争端。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause its year-long interest rate cut cycle, marking the first such pause in over a year, as policymakers await clearer information before deciding on future actions [1][2] - A recent survey indicated that all but two economists expect the ECB to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting, temporarily halting the 200 basis points of rate cuts that began in June 2024 [1] - The ECB's communication style and policy statement will be closely watched, particularly how officials describe the decision to maintain rates, as the use of the term "pause" may fuel market expectations that rate cuts are not over [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, is a primary reason for the ECB's decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] - The potential impact of these tariffs poses significant risks to the European economic outlook, with the ECB's previous stress tests only assuming a 20% tariff on all European goods [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the eurozone's output could stagnate in the second and third quarters due to these tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of consensus among ECB officials regarding the next steps after the pause, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target [3] - Conversely, other officials express caution, suggesting that the threshold for further rate cuts is "very high," and they warn that increased public spending in the coming years could stimulate prices [3] - The strong euro, which has appreciated 13% against the dollar this year, is causing concern among some policymakers as it could make exports more expensive and lower import costs [4][7] Group 4 - The ECB is also monitoring the euro's strength closely, with some officials indicating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate the economic situation and prompt the ECB to consider further rate cuts [7] - However, not all officials share this concern, with some arguing that fears regarding the euro's strength are exaggerated and that it is difficult to complain about its strength while advocating for its global status [7]

Group 1 - The international silver price closed at $39.25 per ounce on July 23, down by $0.03 or 0.08%, with a daily high of $39.52 and a low of $39.03 [1] - As of July 23, the silver ETF holdings increased to 15,207.82 tons, up by 49.45 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent trade tensions and potential tariffs are impacting market sentiment, particularly for export-dependent economies like Japan and the Eurozone [3] Group 2 - The silver price reached a near 14-year high of $39.53 per ounce, outperforming gold, although profit-taking limited gains near the $40 mark [4] - The technical outlook for silver remains positive as long as the key support level of $37.50 is not breached, with strong buying expected around $36.16 and the 50-day moving average at $35.90 [4]

据路透社本周援引欧盟外交官的消息，如果欧盟无法与美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议，包括法国和德国 在内的多个欧盟成员国正考虑对美国采取"ACI"措施。 这些措施可能包括：欧盟限制美国供应商进入欧盟市场，将其排除在欧盟公共采购的参与之外，以及对 商品和服务施加进出口限制，并限制对该地区的外国直接投资。 鉴于特朗普与欧盟的贸易争端已接近白热化，部署欧盟"贸易核选项"的时机也可能临近。 目前，白宫表示，如果在此之前未能达成贸易协议，它将于8月1日对欧盟进口商品征收30%的关税。白 宫表示该截止日期已确定，但指出贸易谈判在此日期之后仍可能继续。 随着美国对欧盟进口商品征收30%关税的威胁日益逼近，欧盟似乎正准备部署其"反经济胁迫工 具"（ACI），该工具被描述为旨在阻止贸易争端的"核选项"。 欧盟委员会指出，欧盟的应对措施必须"与其所抵消的损害成比例，并且必须具有针对性和临时性"，只 要感知到的胁迫持续存在，就将一直适用。 欧盟委员会采取行动也需要时间，该程序要求其在调查可能的胁迫案件后，请成员国确认其调查结果。 然后，需要合格多数（27个成员国中至少有15个）同意采纳ACI应对措施，甚至在这些措施付诸实施之 前，欧盟委员 ...

面对美国关税施压，欧盟一面强调要采取措施维护自身利益，表现出些许强硬；一面又因经济对美依存 度高、内部分歧大以及地缘政治等因素，声称谈判仍是优先选项。面对这些复杂因素，欧盟当前的"摇 摆不定"可以视为基于现实的理性选择。不过欧盟"不战不和不守"的暧昧只会等来美国更加肆无忌惮的 霸凌。 7月中旬，美国在关税问题上再度对欧盟发难。面对美国施压，欧盟一面强调要采取措施维护自身利 益，一面又声称谈判仍是优先选项。欧盟摇摆不定的态度，反映出其决策受到多方因素掣肘，也体现出 试图"以拖待变"的绥靖心态。 当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30%的 关税。美方声称，欧盟的关税和非关税贸易壁垒导致美国出现对欧巨额贸易逆差，双方关系"远非互惠 互利"。欧盟及其成员国领导人对此表示强烈不满。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当天发表声明称，"欧盟将 采取一切必要措施维护自身利益，包括在必要时对等反制"。欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的 委员谢夫乔维奇14日表示，如果美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值720亿欧元（约合840亿美元）的美 国进口商品征收额外反制关税。 此外，欧盟还面临安全 ...