即使对等关税暂缓，市场波动性依然高企。 受特朗普关税政策波动性影响，部分全球最大规模的养老金基金、家族办公室及超高净值人士正暂停对 美国市场的投资，并将财富转移至伦敦或苏黎世"避难"。 2025年以来，美国股市表现疲软。标普500指数下跌8.61%，纳斯达克指数重挫13.26%，道琼斯工业指 数回落5.14%。相比之下，德国DAX指数上涨1.75%，香港恒生指数增长1.91%，英国富时100指数虽下 跌3.58%，但跌幅小于美股。 全球经济分析公司BCA Research全球首席策略师贝莱津（Peter Berezin）对第一财经记者表示，美国经 济和股市在全球贸易战冲击下面临显著风险。他认为，劳动力市场韧性减弱、消费者储蓄枯竭、收入增 长放缓及借贷能力受限等因素，可能导致美国在2025年陷入衰退。当前美股尚未充分反映衰退风险，未 来或有进一步下行空间。 财富流向伦敦与苏黎世 BCA Research在4月14日的一份简报说明中称，通常，全球增长恐慌会推高美元并压低收益率。"但上周 的情形恰恰相反。其他发达市场货币从中受益，包括欧元、日元、英镑和加元。收益率差异已无法解释 外汇市场的波动，反而指向资金正从美国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that in a low-interest-rate environment, multi-asset strategies have gained popularity among investors as they seek better returns and diversification [1][4]. - The report discusses the concept of asset allocation diversification, highlighting its importance in the current market conditions and how it can mitigate risks while enhancing potential returns [3][4]. - The report suggests that multi-asset strategies are particularly suitable in the current economic landscape, where traditional fixed-income investments may yield lower returns due to sustained low interest rates [1][3]. Group 2 - The report outlines specific methods for achieving asset allocation diversification, which include a mix of equities, fixed income, and alternative investments to optimize portfolio performance [3][4]. - The discussion includes insights from industry experts on the effectiveness of multi-asset strategies in navigating market volatility and achieving long-term investment goals [1][4]. - The report indicates that the shift towards multi-asset strategies reflects a broader trend in the investment community, driven by changing economic conditions and investor preferences [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution on various asset classes, highlighting the expected benefits for gold, oil, and domestic Chinese assets. Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged over 50% from around $1,900/oz to nearly $3,000/oz since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by increased geopolitical risks and market demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][4] - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a net buy of 1,044.63 tons in 2024, marking three consecutive years of over 1,000 tons of net purchases [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the evolving role of gold as a hedge against inflation and a substitute currency are expected to sustain its upward trajectory, even if the conflict ends [3][4] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is projected to face oversupply in 2025, particularly with Iraq's resumption of oil exports, which could lead to lower prices for crude oil and refined products [5] - If the Russia-Ukraine conflict concludes, the restoration of Russian energy exports may further increase global supply, potentially driving down international oil and gas prices [5] - However, geopolitical complexities, such as Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT payment system, may still pose challenges for its oil exports to Europe, which could influence pricing dynamics positively [5] Group 3: Domestic Chinese Assets - The Chinese stock market is gaining attention from global investors, with Morgan Stanley upgrading its rating on the MSCI China index to "market weight" and raising target levels for major indices [7][8] - The potential resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could reduce uncertainties in international markets, positively impacting the overall asset market in China [8] - A decrease in energy import costs due to the end of the conflict may lower operational costs in sectors like manufacturing and transportation, enhancing China's competitive edge in high-end manufacturing and digital economy [8]