中国人民银行货币政策委员会于12月18日召开了2025年第四季度例会，并于12月24日对外公布了会议内 容。此次会议明确了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加 强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时 机。会议提出，要保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 在具体的政策安排上，会议提出要强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利 率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。会议重申，要从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注长期收益率的变化。此外，会议还强调了要畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，增 强外汇市场韧性，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 会议指出，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现 有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Focus on the expected difference in aggregate demand policies in 2026. The policy goal is to achieve "stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices", with price becoming an important consideration for monetary policy. Externally, the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts for one year has reduced short - term uncertainties. Internally, the increased emphasis on the "supply - side" may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. Macro - policies have shifted from "insufficient demand" to "strong supply and weak demand", with the addition of "cross - cycle adjustment". The goal of monetary policy has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors in the central bank's monetary policy. The policy emphasizes the "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" to stabilize rather than lower the "comprehensive social financing cost". The deletion of certain statements may imply a marginal weakening of financial regulatory intensity and increased flexibility for financial institutions [2]. - In terms of structural policies, the pre - positioning of aggregate demand may increase policy support for investment in 2026 and expand from the "two important and two new" areas to a wider range. The shift from "small enterprises" to "small and medium - sized enterprises" may expand the scope of structural policy tools. The deletion of "stabilizing foreign trade" indicates a reduction in structural support for foreign trade. The deletion of real - estate - related statements suggests that the real - estate market may enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026, with short - term pressure but medium - term stability [3]. - In terms of exchange - rate policies, as in the third quarter, the weakening US dollar has reduced pressure on the RMB [3]. - The macro - strategy has shifted to short - term defense and annual optimism. The fourth - quarter monetary policy has a greater demand for price rebounds, which may come from the "cross - cycle" on the supply side and the expected difference in investment on the demand side. The positive judgment of the 2026 macro - strategy is maintained, but the short - term is revised to neutral. In the equity market, the proportion of hedging should be appropriately increased, and in the interest - rate market, attention should be paid to short - term trading opportunities after the rapid rise of long - term rates [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Events On December 18, the central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting suggested giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively using various tools, strengthening monetary - policy regulation, and grasping the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations [1]. 3.2 Comparison and Analysis of the "Monetary Policy Committee Regular Meeting" 3.2.1 First Paragraph: Monetary Policy - Fourth - quarter statement: The macro - regulation has been strengthened this year. Monetary policy has been moderately loose, continuously exerting force and increasing force in a timely manner, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and comprehensively using various monetary - policy tools to serve the high - quality development of the real economy and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the stable and positive economic development. The reform of the loan - market quotation rate has continuously released its effectiveness, the market - based adjustment mechanism of deposit rates has effectively played its role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has been enhanced, and the social financing cost is at a historically low level. The foreign - exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, foreign - exchange reserves are sufficient, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates bidirectionally, and it remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market generally operates smoothly [11]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the economic description was "rebounding and improving", and the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was included [12]. - Huatai analysis: In November, when the economic data was lower than expected, the economic description was adjusted from "rebounding and improving" to "stable and positive". After the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars from January to November, the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was deleted [13]. 3.2.2 Second Paragraph: Situation Analysis - Fourth - quarter statement: The current external environment has a greater impact. The world economic growth momentum is insufficient, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is generally stable and making progress, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces problems such as prominent contradictions between strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cycle adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices [27]. - Third - quarter statement: The current external environment is more complex and severe. The world economic growth momentum has weakened, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is making progress while maintaining stability, social confidence is continuously boosted, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces difficulties such as insufficient domestic demand and low - level price operation. It is necessary to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in detail, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, increase the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and prices at a reasonable level [28]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, the description of the external and internal economic situations was adjusted. Externally, the uncertainty has decreased marginally. Internally, the description of the "supply - side" has increased, which may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. The monetary - policy goal has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors [29]. 3.2.3 Third Paragraph: Policy Requirements - Fourth - quarter statement: It is recommended to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary - policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations. Keep liquidity abundant, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of fund use. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [43]. - Third - quarter statement: It is recommended to strengthen monetary - policy regulation, improve forward - looking, targeted, and effective policies, grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations, implement various monetary - policy measures, and fully release policy effects. Keep liquidity abundant, guide financial institutions to increase monetary and credit investment, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Promote the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism, improve the efficiency of fund use, and prevent fund idling. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [44]. - Huatai analysis: The central bank's monetary policy has entered a "discretionary" stage. The "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" is proposed, which is more specific. The "forward - looking, targeted, and effective" statements are deleted, and the "timing" of policy implementation is added. The "comprehensive social financing cost" is pre - positioned and changed from "decline" to "low - level operation", indicating limited space for price - based monetary policies such as interest - rate cuts. The deletion of certain statements implies a marginal weakening of the demand for total financial variables and financial regulatory intensity [45][46][47]. 3.2.4 Fourth Paragraph: Policy Reform - Fourth - quarter statement: Guide large - scale banks to play the main role in financial services for the real economy, promote small and medium - sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, enhance the capital strength of banks, and jointly maintain the stable development of the financial market. Effectively implement various structural monetary - policy tools, do a solid job in the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. Use the swap facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, explore a normalized institutional arrangement, and maintain the stability of the capital market. Continuously do a good job in financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Promote high - level two - way opening of finance and improve the ability to manage the economy and finance and prevent risks under open conditions [56]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but with more content, including supporting "two important and two new" areas, stabilizing foreign trade, and promoting the real - estate market [57]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, many statements were deleted. The support order for key areas was adjusted, with aggregate demand pre - positioned, the scope of support for small enterprises expanded to small and medium - sized enterprises, and the support for foreign trade reduced. The deletion of real - estate - related statements may indicate that the real - estate market will enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026 [58][59]. 3.2.5 Fifth Paragraph: Policy Guidance - Fourth - quarter statement: Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference. In accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly grasp the primary task of high - quality development, solidly promote Chinese - style modernization, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic large - cycle, coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand, enhance the forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macro - policies, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, improve the increment and revitalize the stock, and continuously consolidate and expand the momentum of stable and positive economic development [63]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the macro - policy was described as "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" [64]. - Huatai analysis: The macro - policy has shifted from "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" to "forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated". The addition of "optimizing supply" indicates that there is still room for improvement in the macro - supply side in 2026, and the overall policy tone is "stable" [65].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for continued moderate monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and address challenges in the current economic environment [1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has been appropriately loose this year, with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and the use of various monetary policy tools to support the real economy [1] - The effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform is being realized, and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates is functioning effectively [1] - The cost of social financing remains at historically low levels, enhancing the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [1] Economic Environment - The external economic environment is increasingly challenging, with insufficient growth momentum in the global economy, rising trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies [1] - Domestic economic operations are generally stable, with progress in high-quality development, but challenges such as strong supply and weak demand remain prominent [1] Future Outlook - The meeting calls for the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy and increased efforts in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - There is a need to better utilize the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, and to enhance coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released key policy signals during the fourth quarter monetary policy committee meeting, indicating a continued focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and addressing supply-demand imbalances [1][10] - The meeting noted that the external economic environment is increasingly challenging, with insufficient global economic growth momentum and rising trade barriers, while domestic economic performance remains stable but faces significant challenges [1][10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in November, the highest since March 2024, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1][10] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November but showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, suggesting a gradual recovery in prices [2][11] - The PBOC emphasized the need for macroeconomic policies to work in tandem to promote a healthy supply-demand cycle and improve price stability [2][11] Group 3 - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools [4][12] - The PBOC aims to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [4][12] Group 4 - The PBOC plans to guide financial institutions to optimize credit allocation, focusing on key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [8][17] - The balance of structural monetary policy tools reached approximately 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, indicating a significant commitment to supporting strategic economic sectors [18]

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 边万莉 12月24日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会内容公布。此次会议作为判断未来一段时间货币政策走向的重要风向标，释放出 一系列关键政策信号。 在研判国内外经济金融形势时，本次例会认为，当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有 所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等 问题和挑战。 对比第三季度例会来看，本次例会删除了"物价低位运行"的相关表述，并强调"我国经济运行仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战"，较第三 季度例会中的"仍面临国内需求不足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战"略有变动。 这或与近期物价出现的积极信号有关。国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比 上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 11月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%，为连续两个月上涨。对 ...

【要闻速递】 今日周四（12月25日）因圣诞节休市，避险需求与强劲技术面共振，推动黄金、白银价格飙升，散户间 更蔓延着对大涨的"错失恐惧"（FOMO）情绪。但此时跟风追多晚入场者，无异于火中取栗，恐面临亏 损风险。2月交割黄金期货盘中微跌2.4美元，报4503.3美元/盎司，涨势中的回调信号值得警惕。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 中国央行周三召开四季度货币政策委员会会议后声明，重申支持性货币政策立场，同时释放对激进刺激 措施保持谨慎的信号，凸显政策转向重长期稳定、轻短期速效。央行明确将引导借贷成本维持低位，并 承诺加大"跨周期"调节力度，即超越短期波动，避免因过度刺激引发结构性失衡。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货：多头的下一个上行目标是推动价格收于4600.00美元的强劲阻力位上方；空头的近期下行 目标则是将期货价格压至4300.00美元的关键技术支撑位下方。第一阻力位见于隔夜创下的历史高点 4555.10美元，进一步阻力位在4575.00美元；第一支撑位为隔夜低点4496.50美元，后续支撑位在4433.00 美元。 特朗普周二称，若美国经济表现良好，希望美联储下调利率。这一表态正值其即将宣 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by multiple factors including policy expectations, central bank actions, and economic data. There are opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, but also risks from geopolitical, economic, and central bank policy uncertainties [1][2][4][5]. - AH stocks rallied on December 24, and investors should pay attention to the RMB's "7" key level. The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is relatively low [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. China's central government emphasized fiscal and monetary policies, and multiple ministries responded. China's November foreign trade rebounded, but the economy still faced pressure. AH stocks rose on December 24, and the offshore RMB appreciated [1]. - The Fed announced bond purchases and a rate cut, but may pause further cuts. The US economy shows mixed signals with weak employment and low PMI, but high GDP growth. Market sentiment is currently positive but risks exist [2]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the impact of the carry - trade reversal is low due to the ownership structure of Japanese government bonds [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have high supply - side certainty, copper prices hit a record high, and the energy sector faces supply - demand issues. There are also opportunities in the chemical and agricultural sectors [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips in stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5]. Market News - The overall market trended upward, with over 4100 stocks rising and trading volume exceeding 1.89 trillion. The central bank will conduct a 4000 - billion - yuan MLF operation. There are also various economic data from the US and Japan, and commodity futures showed different performances [7].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,940.95 | 0.53% | | 深圳成指 | 13,486.42 | 0.88% | | 沪深 300 | 4,634.06 | 0.29% | | 上证 50 | 3,025.18 | -0.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,352.04 | 1.31% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,344.10 | -0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 48,731.16 | 0.60% | | 标普 500 | 6,932.05 | 0.32% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,613.31 | 0.22% | | 美元指数 | 97.9542 | 0.05% | | 人民币 | 7.0161 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,505.40 | -0.21% | | WTI 原油 | 58.35 | -0.05% | | LME 铜 | 12,133.00 | 0.65% | | LME 铝 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1][11][34] - The PBOC emphasized the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, and the need for better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1][11][34] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)" to attract more foreign investment into advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors [2][20][25] - The new directory will take effect on February 1, 2026, and aims to optimize the regional layout of foreign investment, particularly in the central and western regions and Northeast China [2][20][25] Group 3 - Beijing has implemented adjustments to its housing purchase policies, including relaxing purchase conditions for non-Beijing residents and supporting housing needs for families with multiple children [3][21][32] - The adjustments are part of efforts to stabilize the real estate market and are expected to release housing demand [3][21][32] Group 4 - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility and stock differentiation, with certain thematic sectors like commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and new retail showing significant growth [4][22] - This trend of "stock differentiation and thematic peaks" is becoming a prominent feature of the market as the year ends [4][22] Group 5 - As of December 24, 1866 companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange held performance briefings, representing over 99% of scheduled companies and more than 80% of the total number of companies listed [5][23] Group 6 - The precious metals market saw unprecedented growth in 2025, with gold outperforming most asset classes, silver surpassing $72 per ounce, and platinum achieving significant gains [6][24] Group 7 - Eight departments, including the PBOC and NDRC, released 21 financial support measures to enhance the financial service system for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [9][26][30] - The measures include increasing financial resource coordination, optimizing fund settlement systems, and expanding the use of the Renminbi in cross-border transactions [9][26][30] Group 8 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) outlined five key tasks for central enterprises in 2026, focusing on strategic restructuring, professional integration, and high-quality mergers and acquisitions [10][27][33] - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing operations, improving quality and efficiency, and ensuring a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][27][33]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing the dual functions of monetary policy tools to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. - It was noted that the macroeconomic control efforts have intensified this year, with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and the effective use of various monetary policy tools to create a conducive financial environment for stable economic growth [1][2]. - The meeting discussed the need to keep liquidity ample and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Market and Banking Sector - The meeting called for large banks to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [3]. - It was emphasized to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3]. - The meeting proposed utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase increases to maintain capital market stability [3]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Coordination - The meeting stressed the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][3]. - It was suggested to enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macro policies, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [3]. - The meeting underscored the need to strengthen the management and risk prevention capabilities of economic and financial operations under open conditions [3].