1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop commercial sales are behind schedule, with 57% of the expected output sold, lower than last year's 64.6% and the five - year average of 70.3%, though it increased by 6.3 percentage points from last month [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 7.9% of the expected output, still lower than last year's 9.9% and the historical average of 17.2%, indicating producers' caution due to market uncertainties [1] - A US private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 8% to 184,500 tons in the current week compared to the previous week, and exports from 2024 to 2025 increased by 70% compared to the previous year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Brazil Soybean Sales - 2024/25: With an expected output of 172.45 million tons, 97.88 million tons have been sold, accounting for 57% of the expected output [1] - 2025/26: With an expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14,350 tons have been sold, accounting for 7.9% of the expected output [1] US Soybean Exports - A US private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Canada Rapeseed Exports - Current week: Exports increased by 8% to 184,500 tons compared to the previous week [1] - 2024 - 2025: Exports reached 7.8791 million tons, a 70% increase compared to the previous year [1] - As of a certain date, commercial inventory was 1.201 million tons [1] Spot Prices - Provided spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 30, 2025, to May 9, 2025 [2]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/08 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2650 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2660 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2660 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2435 2380 2615 2660 2605 2705 258 340 185 175 -762 2025/05/0 7 801 2432 2388 2565 2650 2585 2695 258 340 185 170 -788 日度变化 0 -3 8 -50 -10 -20 -10 0 0 0 -5 -26 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iran's low methanol shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low by the end of April. If there is an unexpected supply gap in May, low inventory levels will provide a safety margin for long - positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: Overall polyethylene inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Polypropylene inventory has increased in upstream and mid - stream. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The PVC basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2440 to 2445, with a daily decrease of -8 on May 6. The import profit remained at 218, and the main contract basis increased from 30 to 175 [1]. - **Viewpoint**: Due to low shipments from Iran, inventory is expected to reach a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory may accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of North China LL decreased from 7330 to 7230, with a daily decrease of -70 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7150 to 6987, and the basis increased from 190 to 260 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of East China PP decreased from 7180 to 7125, with a daily decrease of -30 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7097 to 6995, and the basis increased from 70 to 110 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of calcium carbide method in East China decreased from 4850 to 4740, with a daily decrease of -60 on May 6. The basis increased from -180 to -170 [8][9]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of April 19, 2025, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2024/25 season was 92.5%, up from 88.3% the previous week and 83.2% the same period last year [1] - In the first three weeks of April, Brazil exported 9,422,639.91 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 724,818.45 tons, a 9% increase from the daily average export volume of 667,629.19 tons in the whole month of April last year The total export volume in April last year was 14,687,842.09 tons [1] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 16 to April 22, 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.