手握巨额AI基建相关订单，已经不足以"保护"一家公司。 甲骨文手握5000亿美元订单，股价从9月巅峰已经一路下跌40%。博通目前积压的AI产品订单约为730亿美元，最新财报发布后股价由涨转跌。 人称"英伟达亲儿子"的CoreWave季度营收十几亿美元，却能在一周内拿下OpenAI和Meta超过360亿美元的订单。过去一个月，该公司股价累计下跌17%。 外界固然担忧它们是否有足够的能力（金钱）满足客户，但同时也担忧客户本身是不是真的"靠谱"。 AI基建的洋葱剥到最后就是那几家：Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet、微软、亚马逊、苹果、英伟达等几家巨头，再加上OpenAI、Anthropic等明星AI初创公 司。 明星创企还很稚嫩，搞基建几乎全得靠外部融资，风险明显。 巨头们本应是定海神针一样的存在——它们财务稳健、现金充沛，正在用数千亿美元的疯狂基建计划填满未来几年。 但站在支出C位的AI带给它们的回报仍属微小，用"老本"滋养新梦想会不会拖垮巨头，全看梦想的兑现够不够及时。 成则皆大欢喜，败则可能满盘皆输。 01 手握"未来"这张牌，甲骨文短短几个月经历了大喜与大悲。 大喜降临时，甲骨文股价单日飙升40%，创始 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant increase on December 12, with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.12 trillion yuan, a rise of 233.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.97% to 3194.36 points [2] Sector Performance - The power equipment sector saw a surge, with 19 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Zhongneng Electric and Tongguang Cable, which both rose by nearly 20% [6][7] - Technology stocks, particularly in controllable nuclear fusion, high-bandwidth memory, superconductors, and fourth-generation semiconductors, performed strongly, while consumer sectors lagged due to a lack of performance inflection points [4][9] - Among 31 first-level industries, 21 sectors recorded gains, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, machinery, communication, and defense industries, all exceeding 1% [5] Investment Sentiment - The central economic work conference has positively influenced market sentiment, signaling supportive macro policies that bolster investor confidence [9][10] - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index components has led to increased passive investment in technology and communication sectors, further enhancing market sentiment [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may continue its upward trend, supported by ongoing positive policy signals and active performance in technology sectors [11][12] - Structural opportunities are expected to arise, particularly in technology, new energy, and communication sectors, as well as in areas benefiting from policy support and domestic substitution [12]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart short-term Treasury purchases has boosted investor sentiment, leading to a rotation of funds from high-growth tech stocks to small and mid-cap cyclical stocks, benefiting sectors like materials and finance [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached both intraday and closing historical highs, closing up 1.34%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.25% [1][2] - Broadcom reported a record quarterly revenue of $18 billion for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, driven by increased demand for custom chips due to the AI infrastructure boom, although its stock fell 1.60% after the earnings report due to profit-taking [1][2] Group 2 - European stock indices rose collectively, with the UK, France, and Germany's markets increasing by 0.49%, 0.79%, and 0.68% respectively, as the Fed's rate cut improved investor optimism [3] - International oil prices declined, with light crude oil futures for January closing at $57.60 per barrel, down 1.47%, and Brent crude for February at $61.28 per barrel, down 1.49% [3] - International gold prices surged over 2%, closing at $4,313.0 per ounce, while silver prices hit a new historical high of $64.592 per ounce, driven by supply shortages and increased industrial demand [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.87%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 1.13% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025 [4][9] - The Hang Seng Index's current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 11.87, which is around the 70th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio stands at 1.28, approximately at the 58th percentile during the same period [6][11] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2%, aligning with expectations [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.2%, which is expected to positively impact liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, price-increasing chemical products, and AI infrastructure due to favorable market conditions [4] Capital Flow Analysis - Net inflow of southbound funds amounted to HKD 11.349 billion last week, a decrease of HKD 8.491 billion compared to the previous week [6][13] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included Xiaomi Group (HKD 4.596 billion), Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (HKD 2.606 billion), Meituan (HKD 2.100 billion), ZTE Corporation (HKD 0.641 billion), and Li Auto (HKD 0.392 billion) [6][17] - The top five net sales were Tencent Holdings (HKD 3.811 billion), SMIC (HKD 1.376 billion), ASMPT (HKD 0.439 billion), Kuaishou Technology (HKD 0.285 billion), and China Pacific Insurance (HKD 0.129 billion) [6][17]

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-09 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3909.52 | 13277.36 | 4598.22 | 14125.60 | 3891.24 | 1347.10 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.37 | -0.39 | -0.50 | -0.48 | 0.03 | -0.27 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7811.60 | 11227.92 | 4521.13 | 3682.99 | 5281.06 | 548.18 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月10日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:11 月进出口数据点评-高技术提速，新市场托底 行业与公司 家电行业周报（25 年第 49 周）：石头科技黑五大促实现强劲增长，传 统扫地机巨头 iRobot 面临危机 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 37 期）-特朗普政府聚焦机器人行业， Tiktok 拟投资 380 亿美元建数据中心 ...

制造成长周报（第 37 期） 优于大市 特朗普政府聚焦机器人行业，Tiktok 拟投资 380 亿美元建数 据中心 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-特朗普政府聚焦机器人行业：2025 年 12 月 3 日，据 Politico 消息， 特朗普政府开始聚焦机器人行业发展：商务部长卢特尼克一直在与机器人行 业的 CEO 会面，政府正在考虑明年发布一项关于机器人技术的行政令。 事件 2-TikTok 计划投资 380 亿美元在巴西建设数据中心：2025 年 12 月 3 日，字节跳动宣布旗下的 TikTok 计划投入 2000 亿雷亚尔（约合 380 亿美元）， 在巴西东北部塞阿拉州的 Pecém 参与建设一个大型数据中心综合体。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 2025年12月09日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 机械设备 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：吴双 证券分析师：杜松阳 AI 基建：我们认为 AI 算力仍然是需求确定性高增长的投资主线，持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源将深度受益 AI 数据中心供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [5][12]. Core Views - The focus on humanoid robots and AI infrastructure is expected to drive significant growth in the industry, with the U.S. government under Trump prioritizing the development of the robotics sector [2][19]. - TikTok plans to invest $38 billion in building a data center in Brazil, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure [20]. - Jerry Holdings has secured contracts exceeding $100 million for generator sets, highlighting its competitive advantage in the data center power supply sector [21]. Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robots are seen as a crucial carrier for AI, with ongoing advancements expected to continue. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, particularly those linked to Tesla [2][9]. - Key companies to watch include: - Core suppliers: Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, Green Harmony, Lens Technology, and Wuzhou New Spring [2]. - Incremental opportunities: Weiman Sealing, Longxi Co., Feirongda, Weike Technology, and Hanwei Technology [2][9]. AI Infrastructure - AI computing power is identified as a high-growth investment theme, with a focus on the energy supply chain for AI data centers. Gas turbines are expected to benefit significantly from the demand for data center power [3][9]. - Key companies in the gas turbine supply chain include: - Gas turbine hot-end blades: Yingliu Co., Wanze Co. - Gas turbine generator sets: Jerry Holdings. - Other components: Haomai Technology, Liande Co., and supporting heat recovery steam generators [3][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform": - Green Harmony: 2024 EPS of 0.33, PE of 474 [12][29]. - Mingzhi Electric: 2024 EPS of 0.19, PE of 370 [12][29]. - Huichuan Technology: 2024 EPS of 1.60, PE of 46 [12][29]. - Hengli Hydraulic: 2024 EPS of 1.87, PE of 60 [12][29]. - Longxi Co.: 2024 EPS of 0.31, PE of 91 [12][29]. - Yingliu Co.: 2024 EPS of 0.42, PE of 97 [12][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential investment opportunities in edge AI, particularly with the release of the "Doubao Mobile Assistant" by ByteDance, which showcases the capabilities of AI in mobile applications [5][6] - The electronic industry has shown a recovery trend in consumer electronics, with continuous releases of foldable smartphones and sustained high demand for AI infrastructure [19] Market Performance - The electronic industry index rose by 1.09% during the week of December 1 to December 5, 2025, closing at 6300.64 points [3][10] - The semiconductor sector reported a slight increase of 0.88%, while consumer electronics saw a rise of 1.61% [3] - Year-to-date, the electronic industry index has increased by 42.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 25.65 percentage points [10] Valuation Metrics - The electronic sector's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) is 57.70X, which is at the 39.97th percentile of the past 10 years [4][11] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 4.81X, positioned at the 57.57th percentile historically [4][11] Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the collaboration between Doubao and smartphone manufacturers to integrate AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, enhancing user experience through complex task automation [5][6] - The ongoing advancements in AI technology are expected to drive demand for edge hardware upgrades, particularly in sectors like SOC and thermal materials [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOC, the supply chain for foldable smartphones, and the storage industry [19] - Specific companies to watch in the AI infrastructure sector include Cambricon, Chipone, and Aowei Technology, while in the edge SOC sector, companies like Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, and Espressif Systems are recommended [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of uncertain Fed rate - cut amplitude next year, significant global economic and geopolitical variables, it's difficult for liquidity to drive a major upward trend. The AI infrastructure faces over - investment doubts, and the AI, lithium - battery, and anti - involution sectors are waiting for certain developments. From a seasonal perspective, high - dividend sectors are expected to have a good performance at the end of the year. Overall, the equity market may enter a wide - range oscillation state, waiting for the spring rally. [2][17] - In the convertible bond market, the capital flow in November had a great impact on the market. The share of convertible bond ETFs showed a "down - up - down" trend, which was consistent with the overall market valuation trend. Due to unclear equity expectations and poor overall cost - effectiveness of convertible bond assets, the premium rate is vulnerable, and the operation of convertible bonds is difficult. [2][17] - For relative - return investors, it is recommended to allocate a small and balanced position in non - callable, high - quality equity - linked convertible bonds with suitable premium rates. For absolute - return investors, it is recommended to focus on convertible bonds below 130 yuan with high odds. [2][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5) Stock Market - The A - share market was generally oscillating last week. With the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and positive signals from the China - US economic and trade delegation meeting, the market risk appetite remained high. The non - ferrous and commercial aerospace sectors performed strongly. [7] - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. Non - ferrous metals (5.35%), communication (3.69%), national defense and military industry (2.82%), machinery (2.77%), and non - bank finance (2.27%) led the gains, while media (- 3.86%), real estate (- 2.15%), beauty care (- 2.00%), and food and beverage (- 1.90%) lagged. [8] Bond Market - The bond market continued to weaken last week, with sentiment stabilizing and yields slightly declining on Friday. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.85% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. [8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.08% for the whole week, the median price increased by 0.19%, the arithmetic average parity decreased by 0.17%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.79% compared with the previous week. [1][8] - By industry, half of the convertible bond sectors in the market rose. National defense and military industry (+3.64%), non - bank finance (+2.21%), non - ferrous metals (+1.53%), and petroleum and petrochemical (+1.40%) led the gains, while steel (- 2.53%), computer (- 0.96%), household appliances (- 0.91%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.71%) lagged. [11] - At the individual bond level, Yake, Weidao, Yong 02, Furong, and Ruichuang convertible bonds led the gains, while Dazhong, Guocheng, Limin, Yingbo, and Yitian convertible bonds led the losses. [1][12] - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 254.549 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 50.91 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. [15] 3.2 Valuation Overview (as of 2025/12/05) - For equity - linked convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for par values in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 46.32%, 32.88%, 29.62%, 19.91%, 12.21%, and 11.93% respectively, at the 96%/94%, 90%/86%, 96%/99%, 90%/89%, 78%/67%, 95%/94% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - For bond - linked convertible bonds, the average YTM for par values below 70 yuan was - 4.11%, at the 1%/4% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.97%, at the 87% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.69%, at the 82%/83% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - From 2025/12/1 to 2025/12/5, the Pulan Convertible Bond was announced for issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Pulan Software, the underlying stock of Pulan Convertible Bond, belongs to the computer industry. The company's 2024 revenue was 836 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 95.06%. In 2025Q1 - 3, the revenue was 300 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100,000 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 90.07%. The scale of the issued convertible bond is 243 million yuan. [26] - As of the announcement on December 5, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuance and listing in the coming week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12). Last week, 2 companies' applications passed the listing committee review, 1 company's application was accepted by the exchange, 3 companies' applications passed the shareholders' meeting, and 2 companies' applications were at the board of directors' proposal stage. Currently, there are 96 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 149.23 billion yuan, including 6 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.47 billion yuan and 8 passing the listing committee review with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. [27]

Summary of Metal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The metal sector is currently in an upward cycle, benefiting from liquidity easing, recovery in traditional industries, and demand driven by AI infrastructure needs. Industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to benefit, while supply faces challenges from declining ore grades, capacity constraints, and geopolitical disturbances [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Metal Market Performance - The strong performance of the metal sector in 2025 is attributed to changes in market liquidity, inventory and demand data, and long-term demand expectations. Precious metals and industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin have shown significant gains due to increased market liquidity, interest rate cut expectations, and emerging demands from AI [2]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the metal sector will continue its upward trend, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and recovery in traditional industries such as real estate and manufacturing [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market is currently characterized by ample liquidity, with central banks continuing to increase gold holdings. The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to significant price fluctuations, particularly in silver, which has seen a strong rally due to declining global inventories and increased industrial demand [5][7]. - The market anticipates that the liquidity situation will remain favorable in December, with a high probability of a rate cut, which will support precious metal prices [5][7]. Silver Market - Global silver inventories have been declining since 2021, primarily due to industrial demand. The supply-demand mismatch is expected to continue, with speculative demand increasing, which could lead to a gradual rise in silver prices in the medium to long term [6][8]. Copper and Tin Markets - Recent price increases in copper and tin are notable, with copper prices rising approximately 6% and tin prices exceeding 320,000 yuan/ton. This is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and supply disruptions from major mining companies reducing production guidance [9][10]. - The LME cancellation of warehouse receipts has reached its highest level in nearly a decade, indicating strong demand and potential price support for copper [9]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity reaching its peak and slow recovery in Europe and the U.S. The demand from AI applications and energy storage is expected to provide additional growth [11][13]. - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum sector exceeds 5,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong profitability and potential for further expansion [11]. Rare Earth Market - The rare earth market is witnessing a divergence in price trends, with light rare earth prices increasing due to supply constraints, while heavy rare earth prices are declining due to weak downstream demand [16][17]. - The overall supply of rare earths is expected to remain rigid, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics supporting a positive outlook for prices in the medium to long term [17]. Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry has seen significant production cuts, with a reduction of approximately 20,000 tons in pig iron production. This has led to a decrease in inventory levels, which is a positive sign for the market [18]. - The long-term outlook for the steel sector remains optimistic, with expectations of improved profitability and stock performance in 2026, particularly in the manufacturing sector [18]. Additional Important Insights - The anticipated demand from AI infrastructure development is expected to sustain the demand for industrial metals over the next 5-10 years [4]. - The overall sentiment towards the metal sector remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth across precious and base metals, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and sector-specific dynamics [18].