顶着"太迟先生"的骂名，鲍威尔连续第四次按兵不动。点阵图仍暗示今年降息两次，市场聚焦9月的行动窗口……一图读懂2025 年6月美联储利率决议 财料 0% 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 202 2018 联邦基金利率变化值(%) 0.9 0.6 0.3 0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 2018 2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2024 202 02|声明关键内容 01 声明总结 03 | 经济预期 ·关键指标预期 | | | 2025年 | 2026年 | 2027年 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP增速 | 最新预期 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | 上次预期 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | 失业率 | 最新预期 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | | | 上次预期 | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | | PCE ...

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布最新利率决议及经济预测摘要（SEP），主席鲍威尔随后于2:30召开 新闻发布会。市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将维持基准利率在4.25%-4.5%区间不变。路透 社调查显示，105位经济学家中有103位预计利率维持现状，仅2位预期降息25个基点。 最新点阵图将成为关键焦点。根据瑞银分析，尽管鲍威尔可能弱化点阵图的指引作用，但本次会议基调或 偏向鹰派。当前货币市场定价显示，交易员押注美联储将在9月和10月各降息一次的概率均接近80%，与 60%经济学家预测年内两次降息的判断基本吻合。高盛模型则指出，特朗普关税政策已使有效关税率上升 14%，预计核心PCE通胀将在3.4%见顶，GDP增速或因此下滑近1个百分点。 政策声明措辞面临微妙调整。摩根士丹利认为，美联储可能删除"不确定性进一步增加"表述，改为"保持在 高位"。对于通胀描述，尽管近期数据低于预期，但关税效应叠加中东地缘风险，声明大概率维持"通胀仍 然高企"的定性。委员会将继续关注剔除贸易波动的核心指标——最终销售给国内购买者数据。 经济预测面临全面修正。高盛预计美联储将下调2025年GDP增速预期至1.5%，上调 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a 3.5% growth rate for the US GDP in the second quarter, down from a previous estimate of 3.8% [1]

2025年第二季度的最后一个月已走完一半的路程，该出预测文章了——根据当前的多项经济数据分析、解读及展望，南生认为：4至6月的我国GDP实际提 升力度将在4.7%至4.9%区间，取个中位数，4.8%吧。 增速预计维持在4.8%左右，主要依赖三大动能 一是企业对非美市场的拓展获得了巨大的成绩，不仅对冲对美贸易的损失，而得到了更多的收益——以5月份为例：中国对印度尼西亚出口上涨16.8%、对 越南出口上涨18.8%、对泰国出口大涨20.9%，对整个东盟的商品出口金额大涨了12.2%。 2025年5月份，我国对法国出口上涨5.9%，对德国出口金额提升了12.3%，对整个欧盟的出口增长了6.4%；对英国出口上涨7.4%，对加拿大出口上涨8.7%， 对拉美各国的商品出口上涨9.4%…… 对一带一路沿线国家的商品出口金额在今年5月份上涨了9.2%，对非洲各国的商品出口金额大涨了18.9%，并推动：我国5月份的外贸顺差金额暴涨至1032.2 亿美元，同比居然激增了40.3%，创新高。 是不是感到很惊讶啊？特朗普的本意是围剿中国，降低我国的外贸顺差，但结果却是：中国的对外贸易继续高歌猛进，单月顺差金额突破了1000亿美元。若 ...

以色列统计局：四季度GDP增速由原先的1.9%修正为2.0%。 ...

Group 1 - The UK experienced a significant decline in exports to the US, with a drop of £2 billion (approximately $2.7 billion) in April, marking the largest monthly decrease since records began in 1997 [1] - The overall trade deficit for the UK widened from £19.9 billion (approximately $27 billion) in March to £23.2 billion (approximately $31.5 billion) in April [1] - The UK economy contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in April, which was worse than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline, representing the largest monthly drop since October 2023 [1] Group 2 - The decline in GDP growth is attributed to several domestic factors, including the end of the temporary stamp duty relief for home purchases and a decrease in output from the automotive sector [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the base interest rate in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, despite predictions of two potential rate cuts later this year due to the current economic downturn [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The impact of the 924 policy is gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% in the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in the first week of June [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in May, indicating potential continued downward pressure on CPI [6] - Automotive sales remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in retail sales of passenger vehicles in May [8] - The funding availability rate has ended its decline and turned to growth, with a slight increase to 59.13% as of June 3 [10] - GDP growth is estimated to remain around 5.2% based on high-frequency data from the first week of June [12] Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The 924 policy's effect is waning, resulting in a significant drop in real estate sales, with the total transaction area for commercial housing in major cities falling to 20.6 million square meters in early June, down from 32.3 million square meters [3] - The average daily sales area of second-hand homes in 11 sample cities decreased to 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling energy prices, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.8% [6] - The report anticipates further downward pressure on CPI due to ongoing supply chain issues and weak demand [6] Automotive Industry - Retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.93 million units in May, marking a 13% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 2.329 million units, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.5%, with retail sales of new energy vehicles growing by 30% year-on-year [8] Funding Availability - The funding availability rate for construction sites increased to 59.13%, with non-residential projects seeing a rise to 61.01% [10] - The report notes a slight decline in funding for residential projects, which fell to 49.85% [10] Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5.2% based on high-frequency data from early June [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model forecasts a 3.8% growth rate for the U.S. GDP in the second quarter, consistent with previous expectations [1] Group 1 - The GDP growth forecast of 3.8% indicates a stable economic outlook for the U.S. in the second quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expected GDP growth rate for the second quarter is around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as export fluctuations, the diminishing impact of trade-in policies on consumption, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The economic situation in China is projected to remain relatively stable in the short term, primarily due to a backlog of export orders and the positive effects of trade-in policies on retail [2]. - Export growth is expected to maintain a high level in May and June, potentially close to April's 8% growth rate, but challenges may arise in the second half of the year [2]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. has significantly impacted exports, particularly with a 54% tariff on small packages, which may lead to a substantial decline in exports after the initial surge [3]. - The positive effects of trade-in policies for durable goods are expected to wane, with potential negative impacts on consumer demand in the latter half of the year [3][4]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with a 10% annual decline and a 22% drop in new housing starts, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [4]. Policy Recommendations - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for economic stability, especially given the current challenges in the real estate market and capital outflow concerns [5][6]. - Accelerating fiscal spending and exploring additional stimulus measures are necessary to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [6]. - The stability of the real estate market is critical, requiring measures such as interest rate cuts and debt resolution for developers to prevent further economic decline [7]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance consumer spending, particularly by increasing pension levels for rural elderly populations [8]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has revised its forecast for the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate to 3.8%, down from a previous estimate of 4.6% [1] Group 1 - The initial GDP growth forecast was 4.6% before the revision [1] - The updated forecast of 3.8% indicates a significant adjustment in economic expectations [1]