Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]

上海证券表示，黄金长期看多逻辑并未改变，后续可能进一步向上突破。我们认为全球去美元化、美联 储步入降息周期等黄金长期上涨的大逻辑并没有改变，如果时间拉长，黄金有望进一步向上突破。但是 这需要有新的变量发生，比如美国就业形势或通胀水平超预期下滑导致美联储态度进一步转鸽，或者特 朗普通过美联储理事人员变动成功对美联储施压，美联储超预期转鸽等等。 国新证券表示，黄金资产受去美元化趋势推动，央行持续购金提供长期支撑。短期非农数据下修及降息 预期增强市场避险情绪，金价上涨动力充沛。白银正从工业配角转向价值主角，投资逻辑由工业需求爆 发和金融属性觉醒共同驱动。AI与5G技术迭代或扩大供需缺口，金银比修复预期下，白银相较黄金具 补涨潜力。整体而言，黄金和白银资产在多重因素作用下，展现出较强的投资吸引力。 9月22日，黄金ETF（518880）收涨1.90%，当日午后成交额持续扩大，截至收盘超36亿元。同时，黄 金股票ETF（159321）当日午后亦震荡走高，收涨3.39%。 昨日黄金相关ETF表现走强，或受贵金属市场的价格走势影响。据Wind数据，9月22日盘中，现货黄金 再创纪录高位；当日现货白银盘中突破前高，创2011 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the commodity futures market [1][3][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices hit new highs. The medium - term outlook remains bullish. Silver followed gold to new highs, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold to reach new highs, with increased market popularity, and short - term participation is advised [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The main Shanghai copper contract oscillated around 80,000 yuan. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and domestic inventory decreased by 0.44 tons last week. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. Supply increased slightly, and downstream consumption continued to recover. A strategy of buying on dips is suggested, with attention to inventory reduction [1]. - **Alumina**: The main contract closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Temporary observation is recommended [3]. - **Zinc**: The main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,080 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. Supply increased significantly, while consumption entered the off - season. A strategy of selling on rallies is recommended [3]. - **Lead**: The main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. Supply is mixed, and demand has support from pre - festival stockpiling. A strategy of range - bound trading and short - term buying on dips is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% from the previous day. Supply increased slightly, and demand is supported by high polysilicon operating rates. The market is expected to oscillate between 8,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and observation is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Supply increased, and demand from the energy storage and new energy vehicle sectors is strong. Prices are expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and observation is recommended [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract closed at 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% from the previous day. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand was slightly boosted by price adjustments. A range - bound trading strategy with attention to the 60 - day moving average support is recommended [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3,170 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous night session. Building material inventory decreased by 1.6% to 518 tons. A strategy of unilateral observation and a 10/5 reverse spread attempt is recommended [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous night session. Supply decreased slightly, and demand remained stable. Observation is recommended, with a reference range of 795 - 815 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1,211 yuan/ton, down 28.5 yuan from the previous night session. Supply and demand are in a neutral state, and the futures are overvalued. Observation is recommended, with a reference range of 1,170 - 1,240 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell. US soybeans are slightly减产, and South American production is expected to increase. Short - term trading of weak export expectations is recommended, and the medium - term depends on Sino - US tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract hit a new low. Imported grain auctions increased supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. Futures prices are expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract closed at 5,455 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. International and domestic sugar supplies are increasing. A strategy of shorting in the futures market and selling call options is recommended [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton futures oscillated and fell. US cotton quality declined, and domestic textile enterprises restocked in small amounts. Temporary observation with a range - bound strategy of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton is recommended [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.31%. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the market oscillated around 800 yuan/cubic meter. Observation is recommended [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term prices continued to fall. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand increased in the near term. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract weakened, and spot prices were stable. Double - festival stockpiling is ending, and supply is sufficient. Egg prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [7]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before the festival. Policy support may boost market sentiment [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [8]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4,939 yuan, down 0.2%. Supply increased, and demand was weak. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract closed at 15,615 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Typhoon weather and inventory reduction supported prices. The medium - term outlook remains bullish [9]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1,199 yuan, down 1%. Supply decreased, and inventory declined. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9]. - **PP**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell due to increased supply from Iraq. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand remains weak. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and a strategy of shorting on rallies or reverse spread trading in the medium - to - long term is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract closed at 1,294 yuan, down 1.45%. Inventory decreased, and prices were stable. Observation is recommended [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH01 contract closed at 2,605 yuan, down 0.7%. Supply was stable, and demand from non - aluminum sectors improved. Observation is recommended [10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, with a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [2] - The median of the latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts by 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, with Chairman Powell adopting a somewhat hawkish tone, indicating that the next steps in monetary policy remain unclear [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Dollar Performance - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with rising expectations for further Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public holdings at $28.95 trillion, nearly 80% of the total [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt are increasing, which may weaken the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion [4] - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of gold demand, with official reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, reflecting a long-term strategic approach to optimize foreign exchange reserves [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further Fed rate cuts are driving strong investment demand for gold, despite pressure on gold jewelry consumption due to high prices [4][5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The combination of a slowing U.S. economy, concerns over the Fed's independence, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties supports gold prices [5] - In the medium to long term, continued central bank purchases, along with global liquidity easing and de-dollarization trends, may lead to an upward shift in gold price levels [5]

美债风云变幻：多国"削减"持仓，中国黄金储备"加码"，特朗普的底气何在？ 近期公布的7月TIC（美国国债海外持有者统计）数据显示，尽管美债海外持有总量触及9.16万亿美元的 历史新高，但市场内部却呈现出冰火两重天的分裂景象。这场数字游戏背后，是各国央行在复杂博弈中 的谨慎抉择，有人在悄然"撤离"，有人在伺机而动，而"纸面上的繁荣"之下，涌动着真实的资本流动与 战略调整。 数据解读：冰山下的暗流涌动 TIC数据显示，7月美债总持有量微增319亿美元，相较于6月802亿美元的增幅，明显放缓。这看似平稳 的数字背后，却是各国持有者截然不同的操作： 英国： 强势增持413亿美元，总持仓飙升至8993亿美元。这并非简单的"信美"，而是伦敦金融市场对美 联储明年降息的精准预判，意图通过债券价格反弹获利，并为脱欧后寻求避风港的英镑资金进行战略性 配置。 日本： 小幅加仓38亿美元，以1.1514万亿美元的规模继续稳居美债持有量首位。 中国： 连续减持257亿美元，持仓降至7307亿美元，创下自2009年以来的新低。这一举动并非一时兴 起，而是继2024年11月以来，央行持续增持黄金战略的延续。截至8月末，中国黄金储备已达约 ...

美元资产瘦身：一场关于储备韧性的主动重塑 市场上的交易员们，早已就此展开了直接的对话。当交易员甲感慨"欧洲长债也正在被抛售，大家都在小心翼翼地探索"时， 交易员乙的回应更是道出了关键："确实如此，就连日本和英国在七月都还在增持美债，唯独我们选择撤离，这说明我们的策 略存在不对称性。"这番略显随意却掷地有声的闲聊，直观地揭示了一个不争的事实：外资的配置行为并非铁板一块，甚至在 关键时刻还会出现显著分化。 为何说这种分化是"策略不对称"？不妨换个角度审视。日本和英国在七月选择逆势增持美债，这可能意味着它们对美债的风 险偏好、期限错配以及短期套利机会有着不同的评估，甚至可能是出于某种被动考量。而中国在此背景下的选择，则更像是 一种主动的、有预见性的资产结构调整。其目标并非追求立竿见影的短期收益，而是致力于构建一个更具长期韧性的外汇储 备体系。尤其是在美元指数自特朗普再次当选以来已累计下跌超过10%的宏观背景下，过度依赖单一货币的风险已不再令人 安心。 同期，中国人民银行连续第10个月增持黄金的举动，同样引人注目。截至八月底的官方数据显示，黄金储备已增至7402万盎 司，较七月底净增6万盎司。这绝非一时兴起，而是长期 ...

编辑：X 整个华尔街似乎都在屏息以待，CME的那个FedWatch工具，数字已经跳到了92.5%。另一边的芝商所数据也毫不示弱，给出了89%的概率，甚至还有11%的 赌注押在了更激进的50个基点上。市场几乎是在用一种不容置疑的口吻宣告：九月份，那25个基点的降息，稳了。 然而，一边是板上钉钉的预期，另一边却是资产价格的混沌表现。黄金，这个无息资产的代表，自八月下旬以来已经猛冲了6%，一举捅破了在3200至3450 美元区间盘整数月的天花板，如今在3650美元的高位上空盘旋，让人又爱又怕。 视线转回国内，A股市场自九月以来则完全是另一番景象，上证指数在3738到3820点之间来回拉扯，市场情绪从高点回落，成交额也从3.1万亿元的峰值萎缩 到了2.15万亿元。这哪里像是要开席的样子？明明是狂欢前的冷静。 为何一个如此确定的超级利好，却没能带来一场确定性的普涨狂欢？这背后，到底藏着怎样的博弈？ 市场的笃定，当然不是空穴来风，它的基石，是美国经济那份略显疲态的体检报告。这份报告，就是鲍威尔和他的同僚们扣动降息扳机的最大理由。 首当其冲的，是就业市场的"红灯"。就在八月份，被视为经济晴雨表的非农就业岗位仅仅新增了2.2 ...

Group 1 - China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings by $25.7 billion in July, bringing total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009 [1] - In 2013, China held over $1.3 trillion in US Treasuries, indicating a nearly halved position over the past decade [3] - The decline in US Treasury holdings is a long-term, planned adjustment rather than a sudden decision [5] Group 2 - The deterioration of the US fiscal situation, including rising government debt and increasing fiscal deficits, has weakened investor confidence in US Treasuries [7][8] - Rising yields on long-term US Treasuries, which have surpassed 4%, reflect increased risk perceptions regarding the US's ability to repay debt [10] - China's gradual reduction of US Treasury holdings is a rational choice to diversify risk, avoiding market volatility while ensuring asset safety [12] Group 3 - China is actively pursuing a strategy of de-dollarization, seeking alternatives to the US dollar in international trade [14][16] - Initiatives include promoting RMB settlements in energy trade and establishing currency swap agreements with various countries [16] - The creation of a cross-border RMB payment system provides a backup channel for international transactions, enhancing financial security [18] Group 4 - China's adjustments in foreign exchange reserves include increasing holdings in gold and strategic resources, aiming for a more robust reserve structure [20] - These measures contribute to a financial safety net for China and may serve as a model for other emerging market countries [21] - The declining attractiveness of US Treasuries raises questions about who will absorb the reduced demand, as countries like Japan and the UK continue to increase their holdings [23][25] Group 5 - Japan and the UK, despite previous reductions, are increasing their US Treasury holdings, suggesting political motivations behind these decisions [25][27] - The US Treasury market is increasingly influenced by political factors, with allies expected to demonstrate loyalty through financial commitments [27][29] - The shrinking pool of buyers for US Treasuries poses long-term risks, particularly if key allies face economic challenges [31]

消息面上，9月22日，现货黄金持续走高，盘中一度升至3719美元/盎司，再创历史新高，年内涨幅已高 达四成。此前美联储如期降息25个基点。长江证券表示，在降息周期初期，金价延续震荡上行格局不 变。华泰证券认为，中长期黄金配置价值不变，一方面，联储在经济上调、通胀粘性的背景下仍延续降 息路径，叠加市场对2026年鲍威尔任期结束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期美经济滞胀的隐忧仍在。另 一方面，在全球格局重塑的年代，去美元化趋势、地缘政治风险以及投资组合多元化的需求，都在推动 全球央行和机构投资者持续增配黄金。 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 山东黄金 赤峰黄金 招金矿业 灵宝黄金 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 38.49 1.99 5.45% 5.64% 3.75% 1.89% 0.00% 1.89% 3.75% 5.64% 34.44 35.13 35.81 36.50 37.19 37.87 38.56 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 69万 138万 207万 黄金股持续走高，截至发稿，潼关黄金(00340)涨8.26%，报2.36港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨7.35%，报 ...