美元资产瘦身：一场关于储备韧性的主动重塑 市场上的交易员们，早已就此展开了直接的对话。当交易员甲感慨"欧洲长债也正在被抛售，大家都在小心翼翼地探索"时， 交易员乙的回应更是道出了关键："确实如此，就连日本和英国在七月都还在增持美债，唯独我们选择撤离，这说明我们的策 略存在不对称性。"这番略显随意却掷地有声的闲聊，直观地揭示了一个不争的事实：外资的配置行为并非铁板一块，甚至在 关键时刻还会出现显著分化。 为何说这种分化是"策略不对称"？不妨换个角度审视。日本和英国在七月选择逆势增持美债，这可能意味着它们对美债的风 险偏好、期限错配以及短期套利机会有着不同的评估，甚至可能是出于某种被动考量。而中国在此背景下的选择，则更像是 一种主动的、有预见性的资产结构调整。其目标并非追求立竿见影的短期收益，而是致力于构建一个更具长期韧性的外汇储 备体系。尤其是在美元指数自特朗普再次当选以来已累计下跌超过10%的宏观背景下，过度依赖单一货币的风险已不再令人 安心。 同期，中国人民银行连续第10个月增持黄金的举动，同样引人注目。截至八月底的官方数据显示，黄金储备已增至7402万盎 司，较七月底净增6万盎司。这绝非一时兴起，而是长期 ...

编辑：X 整个华尔街似乎都在屏息以待，CME的那个FedWatch工具，数字已经跳到了92.5%。另一边的芝商所数据也毫不示弱，给出了89%的概率，甚至还有11%的 赌注押在了更激进的50个基点上。市场几乎是在用一种不容置疑的口吻宣告：九月份，那25个基点的降息，稳了。 然而，一边是板上钉钉的预期，另一边却是资产价格的混沌表现。黄金，这个无息资产的代表，自八月下旬以来已经猛冲了6%，一举捅破了在3200至3450 美元区间盘整数月的天花板，如今在3650美元的高位上空盘旋，让人又爱又怕。 视线转回国内，A股市场自九月以来则完全是另一番景象，上证指数在3738到3820点之间来回拉扯，市场情绪从高点回落，成交额也从3.1万亿元的峰值萎缩 到了2.15万亿元。这哪里像是要开席的样子？明明是狂欢前的冷静。 为何一个如此确定的超级利好，却没能带来一场确定性的普涨狂欢？这背后，到底藏着怎样的博弈？ 市场的笃定，当然不是空穴来风，它的基石，是美国经济那份略显疲态的体检报告。这份报告，就是鲍威尔和他的同僚们扣动降息扳机的最大理由。 首当其冲的，是就业市场的"红灯"。就在八月份，被视为经济晴雨表的非农就业岗位仅仅新增了2.2 ...

Group 1 - China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings by $25.7 billion in July, bringing total holdings down to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2009 [1] - In 2013, China held over $1.3 trillion in US Treasuries, indicating a nearly halved position over the past decade [3] - The decline in US Treasury holdings is a long-term, planned adjustment rather than a sudden decision [5] Group 2 - The deterioration of the US fiscal situation, including rising government debt and increasing fiscal deficits, has weakened investor confidence in US Treasuries [7][8] - Rising yields on long-term US Treasuries, which have surpassed 4%, reflect increased risk perceptions regarding the US's ability to repay debt [10] - China's gradual reduction of US Treasury holdings is a rational choice to diversify risk, avoiding market volatility while ensuring asset safety [12] Group 3 - China is actively pursuing a strategy of de-dollarization, seeking alternatives to the US dollar in international trade [14][16] - Initiatives include promoting RMB settlements in energy trade and establishing currency swap agreements with various countries [16] - The creation of a cross-border RMB payment system provides a backup channel for international transactions, enhancing financial security [18] Group 4 - China's adjustments in foreign exchange reserves include increasing holdings in gold and strategic resources, aiming for a more robust reserve structure [20] - These measures contribute to a financial safety net for China and may serve as a model for other emerging market countries [21] - The declining attractiveness of US Treasuries raises questions about who will absorb the reduced demand, as countries like Japan and the UK continue to increase their holdings [23][25] Group 5 - Japan and the UK, despite previous reductions, are increasing their US Treasury holdings, suggesting political motivations behind these decisions [25][27] - The US Treasury market is increasingly influenced by political factors, with allies expected to demonstrate loyalty through financial commitments [27][29] - The shrinking pool of buyers for US Treasuries poses long-term risks, particularly if key allies face economic challenges [31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have reached a historical high of $3719 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 40% following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Long-term gold allocation remains valuable due to the Fed's continued rate cuts amid economic adjustments and persistent inflation concerns, alongside expectations of a more accommodative Fed post-2026 [1] - Global central banks and institutional investors are increasing their gold allocations driven by de-dollarization trends, geopolitical risks, and the need for diversified investment portfolios [1] Group 2 - Gold stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Tongguan Gold (up 8.26%), Lingbao Gold (up 7.35%), Shandong Gold (up 6.56%), Zhaojin Mining (up 5.64%), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (up 4.72%) [2] - The trading volume for gold stocks has been substantial, with 690,000 shares traded at peak times [2]

Core Insights - The global currency payment market is experiencing a quiet shift in power, with the US dollar's share in global payments declining to 46.94% by August 2025, a decrease of 1 percentage point, while the euro's share increased by 2.5 percentage points to 25.61% [1][3] - Despite the dollar's continued dominance, its leading position is being eroded by a trend towards de-dollarization, with many countries seeking alternative payment solutions [3] - The eurozone's performance is notable, achieving a recent high of 25.61% in payment share, indicating economic resilience, while traditional currencies like the British pound and Japanese yen show limited growth [3] - The international status of the renminbi is steadily rising, being the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies globally, facing competition from the euro [3] - The renminbi's cross-border payment system has reached 189 countries and regions, with the CIPS system processing 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating significant internationalization progress [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan with the European Central Bank, Switzerland, and Hungary further demonstrate the renminbi's growing international appeal [5] Summary by Category Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar's share in global payments has decreased to 46.94%, while the euro's share has increased to 25.61% [1][3] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with countries exploring alternative payment methods [3] Eurozone Performance - The eurozone has achieved a payment share of 25.61%, marking a recent high and showcasing economic resilience [3] Renminbi Internationalization - The renminbi is the only emerging market currency among the top six active currencies, with a cross-border payment system covering 189 countries [3][5] - CIPS processed 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating robust internationalization [5] - Recent currency swap agreements totaling 540 billion yuan highlight the renminbi's increasing attractiveness [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.22% closing at 3828.58 points and a total turnover of 941.8 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points with a turnover of 1179.7 billion yuan [1] - The market showed a trend of more declines than gains, with notable performance in the electronics and computer sectors [1] - The trading heat has decreased recently, indicating a potential structural opportunity phase in the A-share market, suggesting investors focus on industries with superior performance trends and high prosperity [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices breaking through 3700 USD, reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw a significant increase of over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates has bolstered gold's strong performance, with a 92% market expectation for a rate cut in October [1] - UBS forecasts global central bank gold purchases to remain strong at 900 to 950 tons this year, reflecting confidence in gold as a reserve asset, with predictions for gold prices to potentially exceed 4000 USD next year [2] Industrial Metals - Various industrial metals have seen price increases in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with silver rising by 3.81% to 10317 yuan per kilogram, and copper maintaining prices above 80000 yuan per ton [2] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector increased by approximately 1%, outperforming other industries [2] - The demand for silver remains robust due to its applications in electronics and photovoltaic equipment, while the green energy transition and AI growth provide stable demand for copper [2] Rare Earth Market - China's strengthened export controls on rare earths have led to increased overseas restocking orders and rising domestic demand in the permanent magnet industry [3] - Expectations for rare earth policies have increased, stabilizing product prices and improving profit margins for companies [3] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metal index is around 24 times earnings, indicating potential for future valuation recovery [3] AI Chip Market - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF rising over 5% [3] - Huawei's release of new super nodes and chips is seen as a significant advancement, with the Ascend 950 super node considered the strongest globally [4] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow, supported by increasing capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [4] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is recovering from previous challenges, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 6.33% [4] - Regulatory attention on the industry's competition issues is expected to stabilize prices and profits, with upstream silicon material profits beginning to recover [4][6] - The global demand for new installations is projected to exceed 600 GW annually, with companies expanding production in low-tariff regions to maintain competitive advantages [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut was supported by St. Louis Fed President Bullard for "preventive reasons" to avoid further deterioration in the labor market, but he noted limited room for future cuts given current rates are near neutral [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not support further rate cuts due to persistently high inflation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2] - The Fed faces a complex situation with signs of a cooling labor market and inflation not stabilizing at the 2% target, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Global central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are driving gold prices to record highs, with international gold prices reaching $3,728 per ounce, doubling since the end of 2022 [2][3] - Central banks have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, with expectations of 900 tons in 2023, driven by "de-dollarization" efforts [3] - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with 397 tons in the first half of 2023, the highest since 2020, and total holdings reaching 3,615.9 tons by June [3] Group 3: Jewelry and Investment Demand Trends - Global demand for gold jewelry has declined significantly, with a projected 14% drop in Q2 2025 to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since the pandemic [3] - Despite the decline in jewelry demand, investment demand for physical gold remains strong, with a 10% increase in bar purchases expected in 2024, while coin purchases are down 31% [4] - Overall retail investment demand is projected to grow by 2% to 1,218 tons in 2025, particularly driven by strong purchasing power in Asian markets [4]

Core Insights - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, now standing at over $730 billion, down from a peak of $1.3 trillion, indicating a strategic shift in response to global financial dynamics [3] - The reduction in US debt holdings is part of a cautious, phased approach, with China simultaneously increasing its gold reserves, reflecting a broader trend among central banks globally [3][6] - The rising US national debt, currently at $37 trillion, and the associated fiscal pressures have led to diminishing confidence in the dollar, prompting a diversification of assets among international investors [5] Group 1: China's Strategy - China is strategically reducing its reliance on US Treasury bonds while increasing gold reserves, which enhances its financial security and reduces vulnerability to potential financial risks [8][10] - The shift towards gold is not isolated to China; global central banks have collectively purchased over 1,000 tons of gold since 2022, indicating a significant trend away from dollar dependency [6] - This adjustment in asset allocation is aimed at maintaining stability in the face of increasing financial volatility and is part of a broader push for the internationalization of the renminbi [10] Group 2: Global Financial Dynamics - The contrasting strategies of Japan and the UK, which continue to increase their US Treasury holdings, highlight the unique position of China in the current financial landscape [8] - The ongoing diversification of global capital flows and the increasing appeal of gold challenge the traditional dominance of the dollar, suggesting a potential shift in the international monetary system [10] - China's actions serve as a model for other nations, encouraging a reevaluation of their own financial strategies in light of the evolving global economic environment [10]

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have reached a new historical high of $3720 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1% and a cumulative rise of over 12% since August 20 [1][6] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by more than 42% [1][6] Group 2: Market Reaction - U.S. gold stocks collectively surged over 5% in early trading, with notable increases in companies such as Barrick Mining and Newmont [4] - In the A-share market, gold-related stocks also saw significant gains, with Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold rising over 9% [5] Group 3: Future Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting spot gold to reach $3800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and potentially exceed $4000 in Q1 2026 [7] - UBS has also increased its target price for gold, projecting it to reach $3800 by the end of 2025, up from a previous estimate of $3500 [7] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3700 for gold by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for prices to exceed $4500 under certain conditions [8] Group 4: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has established a trend of gradually easing monetary policy, which is expected to support higher gold prices [6][9] - Analysts suggest that ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. economic policies are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8][10] Group 5: Institutional Demand - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold, with the demand being less sensitive to price fluctuations, which supports a bullish outlook for gold prices [10] - The trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical risks are prompting institutional investors to diversify their portfolios with gold, providing a solid support base for prices [10]

2025年9月，美国政治与经济的双重危机令全球为之侧目。中国7月大幅减持美债、黄金储备再创新高，美国政府则因预算僵局濒临停摆边缘。国际权威媒体 《外交政策》与《世界报》接连发声，直指特朗普时代的对华误判与决策混乱。全球格局悄然变化，影响远超以往任何一次危机。 美国财政部最新发布的数据显示，2025年7月中国持有的美国国债规模已降至7307亿美元，创下2009年以来新低。一个月内，减持额度高达257亿美元。与此 同时，中国央行8月末黄金储备达到7402万盎司，连续第十个月增长。国际金融市场对这一连串动作反应剧烈，美债收益率短线跳升，美元指数承压。 华尔街分析师坦言，过去几年中国对美债的操作已不再单一。2022年，中国美债持仓首次跌破1万亿美元后，减持节奏加快，2022年全年减持1732亿美元， 2023年减持508亿美元，2024年减持573亿美元。今年前7个月，中国呈现增减交替但以减持为主的态势，7月减持更是格外引人关注。 外汇储备结构的调整，已成为中国应对外部风险的一项核心战略。有国际评级机构警告，若中国和其他主要债权国持续减持美债，美国融资成本将持续走 高，美元国际地位将面临结构性冲击。美国国会预算办公室 ...