作者/余纪昕、唐曜华 编辑/方海平 回顾2025年上半年，全球资本市场风云变幻，板块轮动更加迅速密集，投资风格切换显著。 随着投资者对收益性和安全性的双重诉求愈发强烈，资管机构更需要迅速调整投资组合配置策略，以应对市场环境的高波动性。7月下旬，21世纪资管研究 院向20位来自不同资管机构的专业投研人士发起调研，并对包括理财、险资、公募基金、券商资管的不同类型机构的相关投研负责人进行采访，呈现2025年 中期的市场主流趋势预期和投资策略转向。 一、宏观经济：政策发力与市场信心修复将共同塑造宏观经济图景 宏观经济走势上，今年上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。 对于下半年，21世纪资管研究院的问卷调查显示，国内经济增长的主要驱动力或将呈现多元化特征。市场预期基建投资和政府消费仍将发挥稳增长的关键带 动作用，同时科技创新和绿色发展也将成为重要引领。 在影响宏观经济走势的因素方面，"财政政策扩张刺激力度"居于首位，稳增长力度显得尤为关键。 汇率方面，市场对人民币汇率持稳中向好的整体预期占主流。 值得注意的是，在本次问卷调研中，关税等外部因素仅受2.44 ...

6月30日，A股以总市值首次站上100万亿元的高光时刻结束上半年行情。在业内人士看来，这一历 史性突破不仅体现了中国资本市场体量的跃升，更折射出经济转型、产业升级与制度优化正加速演进。 回顾上半年，A股在偏窄区间内震荡波动，整体走出向上态势，结构性行情明显，成长、消费、周 期和红利均有亮点。Wind数据显示，2025年上半年，A股主要股指悉数收涨，上证指数上涨2.76%，北 证50指数表现最强，累计涨幅达39.45%；从行业来看，有色金属、企业服务、家庭用品、银行等涨幅 居前，均超15%。 7月1日下半年首个交易日，上证指数、深证成指收涨，创业板指微跌0.24%。下半年A股市场行情 将如何演绎，成为市场分析人士关注的重点。 "在外部不确定性明显消除前，A股主要指数或延续窄幅波动特征。"在中金公司研究部首席国内策 略分析师李求索看来，考虑到国际新秩序重构下我国基本面韧性以及估值优势，预计下半年A股市场 或"前稳后升"。 谈及具体行业，万联证券研究所在研报中提出，以绩优高景气成长与内需方向下的稳健大蓝筹为主 线，可关注发展新质生产力方向下的科技成长板块及全方位扩大内需政策下的大消费产业链。 主要指数悉数收涨 结构 ...

Group 1 - As of June 2025, the total scale of ETFs in China has surpassed 4.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.58% [3] - Stock ETFs have seen a net inflow of 144.9 billion yuan this year, exceeding 3 trillion yuan in total scale, while bond ETFs have grown by 120.71% to reach 383.98 billion yuan [3] - The credit bond ETF market has experienced significant growth, with a net inflow of 109.09 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for half of the total bond ETF scale [3][4] Group 2 - The average return of all ETFs in the market for the first half of the year is 6.08%, with Hong Kong stock ETFs performing particularly well, dominating the top 50 performing ETFs [5] - Ten ETFs have achieved returns exceeding 50%, primarily in the innovative drug and biotechnology sectors, with the top performer being the Huatai-PB Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF at 58.77% [5] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a new wave of growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs, with significant increases in stock prices for many Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies [5][9] Group 3 - The technology and gold ETFs have also shown strong performance, with returns concentrated above 20%, while 13 ETFs have reported losses exceeding 10%, mainly in the photovoltaic and energy sectors [6] - Analysts are focusing on sectors such as innovative drugs, technology growth, and new consumption for future investment opportunities [8][9] - The new consumption sector is expected to see investment opportunities shift between growth styles and high-dividend styles, influenced by changing consumer preferences among Generation Z [10]

Group 1: Consumer Goods and Market Trends - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has shown significant effectiveness, with 48.8 million consumers purchasing 51.5 million digital products, generating sales of 143.26 billion yuan as of May 22 [2] - E-commerce platforms have seen a surge in sales during the "618 shopping festival," with notable increases in categories such as 3C products, where sales of action cameras and gaming laptops grew over 300% and 110% respectively [2] - The automotive market is experiencing steady growth, with passenger car sales reaching 1.755 million units in April, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and new energy vehicle sales growing by 33.9% to 905,000 units [3] Group 2: Emerging Consumption Sectors - New consumption sectors such as pet products and trendy toys are gaining traction, with pet brand sales doubling during the "618" event, showcasing the competitive advantage of domestic brands [4] - The toy sector also reported impressive growth, with companies like Pop Mart seeing a revenue increase of 165%-170% in Q1, driven by a 95%-100% growth in the Chinese market [4] - Health-related consumption is on the rise, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods increasing by 23.3% in April, and sales of health monitoring devices growing by 41.6% in Q1 [5] Group 3: Policy Support and Economic Outlook - Various cities are implementing comprehensive measures to boost consumption, focusing on new consumption models and local economic development [7] - The government is expected to continue supporting consumption and technology sectors, with fiscal spending likely to increase, indicating a positive outlook for sustained consumer growth [8] - The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is optimistic, with many companies in the sports and retail industries expressing confidence in future growth [6]

在经历4月上旬的减仓后，股票私募机构对当前市场逐渐形成共识，仓位指数在75%上方逐渐稳定 下来。值得注意的是，百亿级私募仓位指数连续两周上涨，并且时隔五周后再次突破80%大关。此外， 私募机构也在通过定增等方式，积极参与A股市场投资。展望后市，机构普遍认为，中国资产重估叙事 逻辑在继续加强，以科技创新突破为代表的新经济领域已经展现出蓬勃生机。 百亿级私募积极加仓 排排网最新数据显示，股票私募最新仓位指数稳定在75.16%，连续六周坚守在75%上方。在经历4 月上旬的减仓后，私募机构对当前市场逐渐形成共识，"按兵不动"成为主流策略。 从股票私募仓位分布来看，数据显示，56.18%的股票私募处于满仓水平，24.10%的股票私募处于 中等仓位水平，12.64%的股票私募处于低仓位水平，另有7.08%的股票私募处于空仓水平。 不同规模股票私募仓位差异较大，仓位由高到底依次是百亿级私募、50亿-100亿元级、0-5亿元 级、5亿-10亿元级、10亿-20亿元级和20亿-50亿元级私募。其中，百亿级私募带头冲锋，仓位指数连续 两周上涨，并且时隔五周后再次突破80%大关，较两周前增加4.09个百分点。 从百亿级私募仓位分布 ...

Group 1: LABUBU's Market Performance - LABUBU's unique mint green collectible sold for 1.08 million yuan at an auction, highlighting its exclusivity and high demand [1] - The company's market value reached 347.5 billion HKD, with its founder Wang Ning becoming the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of 20.3 billion USD [1] - The secondary market for LABUBU products shows significant price premiums, with the hidden variant "Ben Wo" averaging 1,200 yuan, over 10 times its original price [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption reflects a shift from traditional value-for-money and functionality to quality and personal satisfaction, driven by technological advancements and new business models [2] - New consumption is characterized by a "consumption grading" phenomenon, where consumers are willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [5] - The Z generation's consumption behavior, emphasizing value and quality, is a key driver of the new consumption wave [5] Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The supply side benefits from ongoing infrastructure improvements and increased digital R&D investments, leading to an intelligent upgrade in consumer goods [7] - Historical insights from Japan's consumption changes in the 1990s provide valuable lessons for understanding current new consumption trends [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment favors high-growth assets, making new consumption a focal point for investment [8] - Performance validation through fundamental research shows promising growth potential in new consumption companies, with one leading Hong Kong stock projected to achieve a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan in 2024, a 188.77% increase [8] - New consumption is seen as a consensus direction for funds, with opportunities in both Hong Kong and A-share markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - A new generation of fund managers is emerging in the public fund industry, demonstrating impressive performance by capitalizing on structural opportunities in the new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Young Fund Managers - As of June 20, 2025, five out of the top ten actively managed equity funds have managers with less than three years of experience [2]. - Notable performances include Liang Furui's Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Selected Mixed Fund, which achieved a return of 71.21% this year, and was his first fund managed since its establishment in October 2023 [2]. - Another example is the Huazhong Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Stock Fund, managed by Sang Xiangyu, which has also exceeded a 60% return this year [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Background - Young fund managers have successfully identified opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with many having strong professional backgrounds in relevant fields [4]. - Liang Furui has six years of experience in pharmaceutical research, while Sang Xiangyu has a dual background in bioengineering and economics, and Liu Haihao has been involved in consumer sector research for several years before becoming a fund manager [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Fund Establishment - The timing of fund establishment has been favorable, with several top-performing funds launched in late 2023, allowing managers to fully benefit from the rising innovative pharmaceutical market [5]. - The rapid establishment of these funds, often in a small scale, has enabled fund companies to effectively capitalize on market opportunities [5]. Group 4: Balancing Risk and Return - While young fund managers have shown strong performance, there is a need for them to learn how to manage drawdowns effectively, especially in a cyclical market [7]. - Funds with concentrated holdings, such as the Zhonghang Preferred Navigation Mixed Fund, have experienced significant volatility, highlighting the risks associated with aggressive investment strategies [7][8]. - Industry experts emphasize the importance of providing young managers with opportunities while also encouraging a shift towards long-term, value-oriented investment strategies as their fund sizes grow [8].

Core Insights - The A-share market in the first half of 2025 experienced significant volatility, leading to a stark performance divergence among private equity firms, with some capitalizing on new trends while others faced losses [1][2] - The focus of investment strategies shifted towards sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividend assets as firms actively adjusted their portfolios [1][5] Performance of Private Equity Firms - Notable private equity firms showed significant performance variation, with firms like Tongben Investment achieving substantial positive returns due to the rise of the new consumption sector, shifting their focus from "big consumption" to "new consumption" since November 2024 [2] - Conversely, some well-known private equity firms faced losses exceeding 20% due to heavy investments in the oil and gas sector [2] Market Reflections - The market's main theme in the first half of 2025 was characterized by "wide fluctuations combined with structural opportunities," leading many investors to struggle with decision-making during periods of volatility [3] - Key events included the "DeepSeek moment" before the Spring Festival and overseas disturbances in early April, which influenced investment strategies and market dynamics [3] Outlook for the Second Half - Private equity firms expressed optimism for the second half of the year, maintaining focus on AI, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividend assets [5][6] - Investment strategies are expected to emphasize a dual focus on "technology + consumption," with an increased emphasis on sectors like financial technology and biotechnology as well as new consumption leaders [6] - Firms like Qinghequan Capital anticipate that the Chinese market remains attractive to foreign capital due to relatively low valuations, with expectations of a positive market sentiment driven by global capital flows [6]

来源：中国基金报 随着A股市场的震荡攀升，可转债市场也接连刷新十年新高。受益于此，可转债基金表现亮眼，十多只 主题基金年内净值增长率超15%，业绩最高近25%。 对于年内转债市场整体不错的赚钱效应，中欧可转债基金经理李波表示，一方面，当前利率环境的影 响，转债需求端始终比较强；另一方面，市场向下的托底力量较强，有较高的安全边际。而对于转债这 类正常环境下容错率较高，但害怕尾部风险的资产来说，这一点是非常重要的，这也是去年和今年转债 表现截然相反的原因。因此从中期来看，转债向下的底可能会比较坚实，高容错率的环境或会提升转债 的持有体验。 转债弹性表现值得期待 对于后市，南方昌元可转债基金经理刘文良认为，可转债估值不容易再次跌入2024年三季度的谷底，更 有可能在近3～4年的估值区间内运行，当前估值处于区间中偏高水平，如果后续转债估值跟随权益市场 波动回落到区间下沿，则是年内较好的加仓窗口。当前时点主要关注科技自主可控的布局机会，耐心等 待新消费、创新药情绪降温后的配置机会。 广发基金基金经理吴敌认为，可转债蕴含三个阶段的机会。刚开始是低价转债的折价修复，紧接着将进 入平衡型转债估值扩张的阶段，最后随着转债估值过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has reached a ten-year high, leading to impressive performance from convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 15% this year, and the top performer reaching nearly 25% [2][6]. Market Performance - As of August 7, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 469.56 points, marking a 12.74% increase year-to-date [4]. - The top-performing convertible bond funds include: - Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A with a performance of 24.78% this year [6]. - Other notable funds such as Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, Oriental Convertible Bond A, and others have growth rates around 20% [6][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the strong performance of convertible bonds to a combination of a favorable interest rate environment and strong market support, which provides a high margin of safety [8]. - The market is expected to maintain a solid bottom, enhancing the holding experience for convertible bonds [8]. Future Outlook - Managers suggest that convertible bond valuations are unlikely to drop to the lows seen in Q3 2024, with expectations of trading within a higher valuation range over the next 3-4 years [10]. - Opportunities are identified in low-priced convertible bonds, with a focus on sectors like technology and new consumption as market conditions evolve [10][11]. - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience three phases: price recovery of low-priced bonds, balanced valuation expansion, and eventual high volatility and high returns [10].