日本首相：美方公布的关税信息令人遗憾 将继续进行谈判 据央视新闻报道，针对美国总统特朗普公布的致日本等方面的关税相关信函，8日，日本首相石破茂 称，美方公布的信息令人遗憾。此外，石破茂做出指示，继续与美方就关税进行谈判。8日，日本政 府将于首相官邸召开综合对策本部会议，以应对美国总统特朗普宣布对日本进口商品征收25%关税 一事。石破茂也将出席会议，据测其将指示相关阁僚继续就取消关税进行谈判。 韩总统府今日将举行会议 应对美关税措施 特朗普宣布对南非征收30%关税 南非回应 据环球网援引路透社当地时间7日报道，南非总统办公室就美国总统特朗普宣布对南非征收30%关税一 事作出回应，质疑美方所依据的贸易数据，并表示需等待更多信息才能进一步谈判。路透社援引南非方 面的话称，"南非坚持认为，30%的'对等关税'并不能准确反映当前的贸易数据。根据我们对现有贸易数 据的解读，进入南非的进口商品平均关税为7.6%。重要的是，56%的商品以最惠国待遇零关税进入南 非，77%的美国商品以零关税进入南非市场。"南非方面表示，南非将继续通过外交渠道努力，推动与 美国建立更加平衡、互利的贸易关系，但目前仍在等待美方承诺提供的协议框架模 ...

越南在当前的国际贸易环境中，始终扮演着一个复杂的角色。从急于野蛮生长到背负压力而妥协，越南的选择值得我们深思。未来，越南必须重新审 视与大国间的关系，以更为长远的眼光布局，以确保自身在国际经济舞台上的稳定成长。在风云变幻的全球经济形势中，越南能否找到一条适合自己 的发展道路，值得我们拭目以待。 在特朗普与越南达成的贸易协议中，越南同意全面开放市场，以零关税对待美国商品。然而，该协议所换来的却只是特朗普轻微的让步：对越南加征 的关税从46%下调至20%。换句话说，尽管美国在一定程度上放松了对越的贸易限制，但越南同样面临着被迫迎合特朗普要求的局面。更重要的是， 这份协议明确指出，任何通过越南转口至美国的商品，都将被征收40%的关税，这意味着中国商品经越南进入美国市场的可能性将基本被封死。 正如一些分析人士所言，越南的这种策略似乎是自我设限。在短期内，越南或许能够借助与美国的合作获得经济利益，但长期来看，这种以牺牲他国 利益为代价的妥协，必然会使越南在国际贸易中面临更大的风险。 值得注意的是，越南对外经济的高度依赖，使得其在与美国的谈判中处于劣势。根据统计，去年越南对美出口达到1200亿美元，占其GDP的近29%。 ...

特朗普宣布对韩国和日本征收25%的关税。 特朗普表示，此项关税将独立于各类行业性关税。此外，任何试图通过第三国转运来规避该关税的做法，也将被征以更高的关税。特朗普称，选择在美国 境内建厂或生产产品的公司无需缴纳此项关税。此外，若这些国家决定提高对美关税，则美国将在现有税率基础上追加同等幅度关税。 当地时间7月7日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.94%，纳指跌0.92%，标普500指数跌0.79%。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普向多国发出信函，表示将对进口商品征收新的关税。其中，美国将自2025年8月1日起对所有日本和韩国产品征收25%的关税。 此外，特朗普警告称，如果日韩两国以提高关税作为回应，美国也将在25%的基础上再提高同等额度的关税。 当天，在美上市的日本、韩国公司股票走低，日产汽车跌超7%，丰田汽车跌近4%，韩国SK电信跌超7%，LG Display跌超8%。 不过，7月8日亚洲市场交易时段，日韩股市均表现强势。日股在小幅低开后迅速走高，韩股小幅高开后震荡走高。 | 序号 | | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing green trade barriers imposed by Western countries, which pose systemic challenges to China's industries such as renewable energy and steel, under the guise of environmental protection [1][2]. Group 1: Green Trade Barriers - The green trade barriers from the US and EU are becoming systematic, standardized, and refined, with significant policies like the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) mandating that by 2029, 100% of electric vehicle battery components must be assembled in North America [2]. - The EU's battery regulations require foreign batteries to establish a "battery passport" by 2025, disclosing extensive information about material sources and carbon footprints, which raises compliance costs and risks of technology leakage [2]. - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose import taxes on high-carbon products starting in 2025 for the US and 2026 for the EU, increasing export costs for Chinese products, with estimated cost increases of 652 to 690 RMB per ton of steel, leading to a 15% to 20% decrease in price competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Strategic Response - Companies should adopt a proactive approach to address these barriers through a four-phase strategy: deconstructing current policies, responding to immediate challenges, resolving mid-term issues, and achieving long-term breakthroughs [3][7]. - In the short term, companies can seek new regional markets or product directions to avoid direct impacts from green trade barriers, such as establishing blockchain supply chain traceability platforms [4]. - In the mid-term, companies can invest in local production facilities in target markets to mitigate the impact of carbon tariffs, as seen with Longi Green Energy's factory in Ohio benefiting from tax credits [5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategies - In the long term, companies should focus on developing low-carbon technologies and circular processes to enhance their global competitiveness in green products [6]. - Establishing mutual recognition of environmental certifications between China and the EU can help meet carbon footprint accounting requirements [6]. - Companies should aim to lead the formulation of international green technology standards, leveraging their technological advantages in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [6][7].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and three other departments aim to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [1] - Changxin Storage, a domestic DRAM memory chip manufacturer, has initiated the listing guidance process with China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Securities as advisory institutions [4] Group 2 - ShenNan Electric A expects a net profit loss of between 21 million to 27 million yuan for the first half of the year [5] - Xinyada's cross-border payment business is projected to account for less than 5% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [5] - Brother Technology's controlling shareholder reduced holdings by 5.6 million shares during a period of unusual stock trading fluctuations [5] - New Asia Electronics experienced stock fluctuations during which directors and senior management reduced their holdings [5] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 36.84% to 39.12% for the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves stood at 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), with an increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between the United States and Japan have been highlighted, particularly regarding Japan's refusal to import U.S. rice despite a domestic shortage, indicating a shift in Japan's stance towards the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump has adopted a protectionist approach, focusing on tariffs and pressuring trade partners, including Japan, particularly in the automotive and rice sectors [3] - Japan's rice imports from the U.S. are projected to be only $330 million in 2024, a negligible amount compared to the overall trade volume between the two countries [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized that Japan will not compromise its agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [3][5] Group 2: Agricultural Significance - Agriculture, while a small part of Japan's GDP, holds strategic importance due to its role in employment and political influence, particularly among rural voters [5] - Japan's low food self-sufficiency rate makes it vulnerable to global supply disruptions, prompting the government to heavily subsidize domestic agriculture [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Dynamics - Recent improvements in Sino-Japanese relations provide Japan with leverage in negotiations with the U.S., as evidenced by the 20 agreements reached during Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Japan [5] - Japan is actively seeking to diversify its economic partnerships beyond the U.S., reducing reliance on American markets and mitigating the impact of U.S. trade policies [7] - Japan's firm stance in trade negotiations signals a potential shift towards a more independent and multifaceted foreign policy [7]

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：美国关税谈判大限将至，但与多数国家谈判陷入僵局，美国经济政策不确定性指数长期持续处于历史高位，美国 的逆全球化和贸易保护主义行为对全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，制造业、出口型企业股票和大宗商品等资产收益受损 ，在当前全球经济与地缘政治不稳定的环境下，贵金属作为一项战略性资产具备良好的抵御风险能力，贵金属等避险资产需 求上升，全球央行加仓黄金意愿更加强烈。 资金面：上周COMEX黄金和白银库存有所回落；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，近4 3 %的央行计划在未来一年内 增加自身黄金储备；全球主要白银ETF资金加速流入，白银较黄金资金关注度上升；上周对冲基金多头在黄金 上增持力度放缓。 策略：沪金价格长期看多，短期延续高位震荡，中期建议持多；沪银短期维持高位震荡，中期建议持多或急跌 震荡区间下沿做多。 风险提示：地缘政治冲突，美国货币与财政政策，关税贸易风险 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 宏观面：关注美国关税政策扰动 3 持仓分析：对冲基金更关注白银机会 4 其他要素 行情回顾 重点指标涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 重点数据指标 | 最新 | 一 期 | 上 一 | 期 | 周变化 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic dialogue between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU's High Representative Josep Borrell, signaling important developments in China-EU relations [1][3] - Merkel's call for EU unity against US tariff threats emphasizes the need for Europe to adopt an independent policy towards China, reflecting a shift in the EU's approach to its relationship with China [3][5] - The economic ties between China and the EU are strong, with daily trade exceeding $2.7 billion, positioning China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's internal policy divisions regarding China are becoming more pronounced, with the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen favoring a tougher stance, while Germany's position is crucial in shaping the overall EU approach [3][5] - Merkel's statements indicate a potential correction in the EU's China policy, advocating for a strategy based on European interests rather than blind alignment with US pressures [3][5] - The article discusses the growing awareness in Europe regarding strategic autonomy, with calls for reduced reliance on US military protection and a more independent stance in international affairs [5][7] Group 3 - The article outlines the broad cooperation potential between China and the EU in global governance areas such as climate change and biodiversity, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts [5][7] - The complexities of the EU's decision-making process, influenced by the diverse interests of its 27 member states, pose challenges for a unified China strategy [7] - The dialogue between Wang Yi and Merkel's remarks suggest a pivotal moment for China-EU relations, with an emphasis on pragmatic cooperation and the necessity for enhanced communication to address global challenges [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the nickel market was characterized by a bearish fundamental outlook, with frequent policy disturbances leading to periodic price rebounds. The macro - economic expectations were volatile, but nickel prices were largely desensitized. - In the second half, the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear with stagflation risks. Domestically, policies focus on supply, lacking determination to improve consumption. In the industry, Indonesia and the Philippines aim to control nickel mines, and the nickel ore market may not ease this year. The nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak market reality and strong cost pressure. - It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will trade between 115,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, and LME nickel will fluctuate between 14,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [3][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - Half Review - In the first half of 2025, the bearish fundamental logic prevailed. Overseas policy disturbances were frequent, such as the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports and Indonesia's series of policies on mineral resources. Trump's global tariff policy in April led to a spread of pessimistic expectations. In June, the cancellation of the Philippines' nickel ore export ban and Indonesia's increase in RKAB nickel ore approvals, along with weak consumption, accelerated the decline of nickel prices [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 United States - In the first half, the U.S. faced stagflation risks. The real GDP in Q1 was - 0.5%, affected by increased imports and weakened personal consumption. Inflation showed a complex trend, with the CPI rising slightly in May. Fiscal support boosted residents' consumption, but the "Big and Beautiful" bill may impact residents' income. The tariff policy was implemented, and trade negotiations were slow [13][14][15]. - In the second half, tariffs and crude oil may support high inflation, while weak consumption may drag down economic growth [16][17]. 2.2 China - In the first half, the domestic labor market improved, with the unemployment rate decreasing and fiscal personal income tax increasing. Social consumption showed some recovery, but there was a lack of strong autonomous consumption. Corporate profits improved with structural differentiation, and private - sector industrial enterprises performed better [18][19]. - In the second half, the situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to policy directions [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Policy Disturbances and Nickel Ore Shortage - In the first half, overseas nickel ore resources were scarce. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore rose by 23.53%. The Philippines attempted to ban nickel ore exports, and Indonesia increased policy intervention. China's nickel ore imports decreased from January to May, and port inventories were lower than seasonal levels [23][24][25]. 3.2 Sufficient Supply and Resource Flow to LME - In the first half, domestic pure - nickel production increased significantly, with new production capacity coming online. Pure - nickel imports mainly came from Russia and South Africa, and exports increased, with resources flowing to the LME. The proportion of LME Asian warehouse resources increased [27][28]. 3.3 Nickel Iron: First Rise then Fall with High Cost Pressure - In the first half, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants first rose then fell. China's nickel - iron imports mainly came from Indonesia. In the second half, new production capacity will be put into operation, but demand may remain weak, and prices may oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.4 Stable Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price with Limited Consumption Growth - In the first half, domestic sulfuric acid nickel production decreased slightly, and imports increased slightly. The price first rose then fell. In the second half, consumption may not improve significantly due to weak demand expectations [33]. 3.5 Low - Level Stainless Steel Consumption and Slow De - stocking - In the first half, stainless - steel prices fluctuated with the real - estate market. Production increased, but inventory remained high. In the second half, the fundamental situation may remain weak, and trade policies may provide short - term support [35][36]. 3.6 Doubtful Terminal Consumption Resilience and Policy - Driven Car - Manufacturer Production Cut - In the first half, domestic new - energy vehicle production and sales increased, mainly driven by subsidy policies. In the second half, domestic demand may be affected by the end of subsidies and corporate cash - flow pressure. Overseas, the growth of new - energy vehicle consumption in Europe and the U.S. may slow down [39][40][41]. 3.7 Excess Resources Flow Outward, and Domestic Inventory Remains Stable - In the first half, pure - nickel inventory first increased then decreased, with resources flowing to the LME. In the second half, due to narrowed export profits, domestic inventory may increase [43][44]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, keeping pure - nickel supply at a relatively high level (neutral). - Demand: The real - estate market continues to bottom out, and new - energy consumption lacks independent driving force, resulting in limited demand growth (neutral). - Cost: Nickel ore shortage due to policy pressure provides strong cost support (bullish). - Macroeconomics: The U.S. stagflation expectation persists, and domestic deflation pressure may continue (bearish). Overall, the nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak reality and strong cost [45].

Group 1 - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama suggested that China should collaborate with Japan and South Korea to counteract U.S. pressure, highlighting the complexities of international relations among China, the U.S., and Japan [1] - The U.S. has escalated its trade protectionist policies under Trump, imposing tariffs on multiple countries, leading to stalled negotiations with many trade partners [1][3] - The U.S. trade war has begun to negatively impact its own economy, with rising national debt and increased consumer prices, affecting the cost of living for American citizens [3] Group 2 - Japan's economy, heavily reliant on exports, faces significant challenges due to potential U.S. tariffs on automobiles and parts, which could severely impact its automotive industry [4] - Japan is reassessing its trade relationship with the U.S. and exploring ways to reduce dependency on U.S. exports by seeking new markets and enhancing economic cooperation with other regions [4][9] - South Korea is also struggling in trade negotiations with the U.S., facing difficulties due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which threaten its export competitiveness [5][6] Group 3 - The potential for cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea is significant, given their complementary economic strengths in manufacturing, semiconductors, and precision instruments [9] - However, political obstacles exist, particularly Japan's alignment with U.S. positions on sensitive issues, which complicates trilateral cooperation [9][11] - Strengthening cooperation among the three nations could enhance regional economic resilience and promote trade liberalization, countering the pressures from U.S. tariffs [9][11]