美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：目前贸易谈判桌上出现大约20-25份协议。 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. Recent trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes are intertwined. The joint statement between China and the US to reduce reciprocal tariffs led to a strong market reaction, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price has fallen nearly 10%, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3,200. The market is also awaiting the US CPI data tonight [2] Group 3: Reasons for the Gold Price Decline - The weakening of the trade conflict has reduced the safe - haven value of gold. When the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff hikes last month, the gold price soared 8% in a single week to a record high of $3,500. Now, as the trade war eases, the over - reaction to the White House's policy has led to the gold price correction [3] - The resurgence of the US dollar has suppressed the gold price. The US dollar index soared 1.5% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and reaching a two - month high of 101.97, which has a double - edged impact on gold [3] - Capital has shifted to risk assets. The S&P 500 index soared 3.26%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the VIX panic index fell below the 20 psychological threshold, indicating that funds are leaving defensive assets [3]

Economic Overview - The global stock market has shown a slight recovery from April 30 to May 11, 2025, with technology stocks leading the gains[6] - The U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have increased, while natural gas prices surged significantly, with Brent crude oil rising by 0.95%[9] - The market consensus indicates that trade negotiations are progressing positively, which has shaped the market rebound over the past month[6] Trade Negotiations - Recent U.S.-China trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs, with the overall tariff level on Chinese goods lowered to 30% (20% for fentanyl and 10% for general tariffs) and a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days[22][23] - The outcome of these negotiations is expected to continue influencing market trends and could enhance the current market rebound's scope and sustainability[25] Economic Risks - There are significant risks related to the economic fundamentals, including potential downward trends in U.S. growth and inflationary pressures due to tariffs[27] - The U.S. economy is facing downward growth risks, with factors such as tariffs, immigration policies, and government layoffs contributing negatively[27] - Inflation risks are anticipated to rise, with tariff impacts potentially delaying inflationary effects by about two months[27] Employment Data - In April 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly above the expected 138,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%[14] - Job growth was primarily driven by the service sector, while manufacturing and retail sectors showed declines[16] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a phase where it may revert to trading based on economic fundamentals rather than trade negotiations, as existing policies have observable impacts on the economy[26] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% reflects a cautious outlook on the economy amid ongoing trade tensions[19] Future Outlook - The timing and pace of any shift back to a fundamental trading paradigm remain uncertain, as the current environment is influenced by tariff negotiations and their implications for U.S. economic growth[28] - The U.S. must capitalize on the current risk window to finalize favorable trade outcomes and leverage opportunities for monetary policy easing[28]

ETO交易平台据悉，日本首相石破茂12日在谈及美国关税措施对日本汽车等产业的影响时表示，日方将采取"万全之策"应对美方关税，如有必要 将毫不犹豫采取额外措施。这一表态显示出日本在面对美国关税措施时的坚定立场和应对策略。石破茂强调，不能接受在不包含汽车领域的情况 下与美方达成协议，也不会为了汽车产业而牺牲农业、以扩大进口美国大米作为谈判筹码。这一立场不仅反映了日本在经济利益上的考量，也体 现了其在贸易谈判中的策略和底线。 日本的应对策略 坚持汽车领域的谈判 石破茂明确表示，不能接受在不包含汽车领域的情况下与美方达成协议。汽车产业是日本经济的重要支柱，对日本的经济增长和就业具有重大影 响。美国的关税措施对日本汽车出口构成了严重威胁，因此日本在谈判中坚持要求美方重新审视关税措施，特别是在汽车领域给予日本"特殊待 遇"。 保护农业利益 石破茂还强调，不会为了汽车产业而牺牲农业，以扩大进口美国大米作为谈判筹码。这一立场显示出日本在贸易谈判中的平衡策略，既要保护汽 车产业，也要维护农业利益。日本农业在国内经济中占有重要地位，特别是在一些地区，农业是主要的经济来源。因此，日本政府在谈判中需要 在汽车产业和农业之间找到平衡。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

欧美贸易谈判最新进展——美财长发话了。 周二，美国财政部长贝森特在利雅得举行的沙特-美国投资论坛上，被问及关税谈判进展时表示，欧盟 面临一个"集体行动问题"，这在一定程度上阻碍了贸易谈判的进展。 简单来说，"集体行动问题"指的是，欧盟内部各个国家的利益并不完全一致。贝森特举例称，意大利和 法国的需求不一致，这种分歧让谈判变得更复杂。 贝森特认为，尽管如此，最终美欧之间会达成一个满意的结论，但这个过程注定会比与其他国家的谈判 要慢得多。 特朗普总统长期对欧盟颇有不满，他曾表示，这个联盟就是为了坑美国而成立的，在此背景下，欧盟成 为达成协议的优先对象的可能性很低。 不过，虽然如此，美国和欧盟之间的贸易规模依然庞大。国际货币基金组织数据显示，去年欧美双边贸 易总额接近1万亿美元，且欧盟在这笔交易中占据了明显的优势，欧盟对美国的贸易顺差达到了2500亿 美元。 贝森特为什么这么说？ 有分析指出，贝森特提到"集体行动问题"，似乎是想通过制造欧盟内部分歧来推动谈判进展，但从目前 的情况来看，欧盟内部并没有出现明显裂痕。德国总理梅尔茨与特朗普的电话沟通中就明确表示，欧洲 在贸易问题上不能分裂。 在欧盟内部，尽管整体战略保持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 4267.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.18% [1] Market Overview - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban has rejected the EU's plan to halt imports of Russian oil and gas [2] - As of May 12, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 6762 LPG futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 415 from the previous trading day [2] - The average domestic price of liquefied gas was 4918 yuan/ton, down by 16 yuan/ton [2] - Anticipation of increased market supply is expected as major refineries, including Jiujiang Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Beihai Refining, are set to complete maintenance [2] Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the recent decrease in LPG domestic production is below levels seen in the past two years, while port inventory levels have rebounded to high levels [3] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization rate has dropped to a one-year low, indicating weak profitability [3] - The reduction in import tariffs is expected to stimulate domestic stockpiling, with potential increases in supply from third-party imports to fill gaps in the U.S. market [3] - The demand outlook remains uncertain due to fluctuating trade negotiations, but the sharp change in tariff levels is likely to trigger significant overseas stockpiling demand, benefiting polypropylene, a major downstream product of LPG [3] Technical Analysis - The market is currently seeing a downward trend in LPG prices, with the main contract support at around 4290 and resistance at approximately 4500 [4] - Increased external supply from refineries and competitive shipping at ports are contributing to a downward shift in market price levels [4]

受到，周末传来的双方会谈消息利好，再叠加今天晚些时候会公布明细结果，今天A股高开高走，大家似乎此前对于能谈好的预期过低，导致今天资金有 点积极定价的意思。 其中，军工股表现依旧非常不错，这得益于印巴之间打算和谈，其中我方的武器出了大力气。另外，是此前受到关税影响的相关板块，今天都有补涨的动 作。 当然，一切的等待和做多，都是为了盘后3点公布的消息。具体内容，大家可以自行去商务部官网查看。 总结下来的意思，中方对美方的关税税率由此前的125%降低至10%，为期90天。而美方对中方的关税税率由145%降低至30%，很多人会说不是应该对等 的10%，你们不要忘了此前18年毛衣战的基础。 说实话，这份贸易谈判的结果肯定是超出市场预期的。因为此前市场并不认为能谈出什么结果，结果真出了结果，此前认为就算谈出什么结果，顶多会将 关税降低至50%左右，结果直接一步到位。 这充分的说明了，在贝森特占据川普政府关税谈判的主导地位之后，川普政府的策略发生了改变。因为关税战这件事的确是伤敌800，自损一千的行为。 欧洲股市，美股期货都在上涨。得益于世界上最大两个国家，关税谈判传出利好，大家对于毛衣战的避险情绪得以大大的缓解。黄金、日 ...