Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 3% year-over-year, which was below the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous month's 2.9% [4][6] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, the slowest growth in three months, and below the market expectation of 0.3% [3][6] - The data reinforces market expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates within the year, clearing the way for the upcoming rate decision [6][14] Inflation Trends - The overall CPI increase was primarily driven by rising energy costs, with clothing prices rising by 0.7%, likely reflecting higher tariffs [6] - Service sector inflation showed signs of slowing, reaching its weakest level since November 2021, partially offsetting the pressure from rising energy prices [7] - Core inflation indicators are showing clearer signs of cooling, with the core CPI year-over-year growth decreasing from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September, marking the lowest level since June [9] Specific Data Points - The "SuperCore CPI," which excludes housing from service sector inflation, also saw a slowdown, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.30%, the lowest since May [9] - Transportation costs experienced a sharp slowdown, further contributing to the overall decline in inflation levels [11] - Goods inflation remained stable at an annual rate of 1.5%, with no significant tariff-driven inflationary pressures observed in the three and six-month annualized data [12] Market Reaction - Following the release of the CPI data, U.S. stock index futures saw a short-term increase, with Nasdaq futures rising nearly 1% [13] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping over 2 basis points to 3.978% [13] - The CPI report provided strong support for the market's expectation of two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to inject 900 billion yuan through a Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on October 27, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will conduct the MLF operation with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a one-year term [1]. - In October, 700 billion yuan of MLF is maturing, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month [1]. - The MLF has transitioned back to a liquidity provision tool since March, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and stabilizing expectations for financial institutions [3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Tools - The PBOC has also conducted two reverse repos in October, resulting in a total net injection of 400 billion yuan [3]. - Combined, the MLF and reverse repos have released 600 billion yuan of medium-term liquidity in October, consistent with the previous month [3]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject liquidity into the market [4]. Group 3: Bidding Mechanism Improvements - The MLF bidding mechanism has been improved, allowing for pre-announcement of bidding results, which helps institutions prepare for liquidity needs [3]. - The multi-price bidding method allows institutions to determine bidding rates based on demand, enhancing market-driven pricing capabilities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut, although this reduction is the smallest in the current cycle [2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations remain high, which may hinder sustainable inflation reduction [4] - The GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [4] - The inflation rate is projected to be between 4%-5% by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 4% [4] Group 2: Inflation Factors - Recent price increases are primarily driven by one-time factors, with uneven price trends across different categories in the consumer basket [5] - The increase in the recycling/disposal fee for imported cars is expected to reduce supply, while a planned increase in VAT from 20% to 22% by 2026 is anticipated to raise consumer prices by an additional 0.6-0.8 percentage points [5] - Current inflation expectations remain at 12.6% for October [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Central Bank aims to achieve its inflation target by maintaining monthly adjusted data close to 4% for an extended period [6] - The average key interest rate for 2026 is now expected to be between 13%-15%, up from a previous forecast of 12%-13% [9] Group 4: External Influences - New sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil producer complicate the economic situation, potentially reducing revenue from oil exports and increasing the risk of a hard landing for the economy [7] - The Central Bank warns that the "inflation slowdown effect" for the 2025 budget will be significantly less than previously expected, indicating that fiscal policy changes may require adjustments in monetary policy [8]

"近几个月，中期流动性持续处于净投放状态。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，中国人民银行通过 MLF等政策工具加大资金投放，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于稳定市场预期。（记者任军、 吴雨） 由于当月有7000亿元MLF到期，这意味着MLF净投放量达2000亿元，为连续第8个月加量续作。 中国人民银行10月24日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月27日中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in shaping China's financial policies and strategies for the next five years, focusing on achieving high-quality development and modernizing the financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy and Economic Stability - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policy measures to maintain liquidity and support the stability of financial markets, contributing to economic growth [1][2]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by balancing short-term and long-term goals, supporting real economic growth while ensuring the health of the financial sector [3][4]. Group 2: Financial System Reform and Risk Management - The article outlines the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to monitor and mitigate systemic financial risks, ensuring the stability of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [4][5]. - It highlights the importance of deepening financial supply-side structural reforms, focusing on technology, green finance, and digital finance to better serve the real economy [4][5]. Group 3: International Financial Cooperation and Development - The PBOC is committed to advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhancing cross-border payment systems, while also promoting financial diplomacy and participation in global financial governance [5]. - The article stresses the significance of maintaining national financial security while pursuing high-level financial openness [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [3][5] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing M2-M1 gap [6][10] Group 2 - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap suggests that M1 is growing faster, attributed to a decline in government bond prices, prompting individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments back into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article notes that the capital market's performance in September was lackluster, leading to a decrease in the "money-moving" phenomenon, as investors were not experiencing significant gains [11][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for continued government intervention to stimulate the capital market and address the current economic stagnation, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market performance, with a cautious approach recommended until these events conclude [20][21] - The article concludes with a call for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of market movements following these critical events [22][23]

会议强调，金融工作是党和国家事业的重要组成部分。五年来，在党中央坚强领导下，我国金融体制改 革全面深化，国家金融治理体系和治理能力现代化迈上新台阶，金融服务实体经济质效显著增强，金融 业综合实力和国际竞争力大幅提升。党的二十届四中全会对加快建设金融强国作出战略部署，中国人民 银行将全面、准确贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话和全会精神，以勤勉、务实、专业的作风，加快完善 中央银行制度，扎实推动重点工作落实落地。 10月24日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持召开党委会议，传达学习习近平总书记在党的二十 届四中全会上的重要讲话和全会精神，落实主要金融单位学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神会议要求， 研究部署贯彻落实举措。中国人民银行各党委委员参加会议。 会议认为，党的二十届三中全会以来，在经济运行的关键时点，党中央沉着应对、果断决策，部署推出 增量政策，有效稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，党和国家事业取得新的重大成就。中国人民银行按 照党中央部署，先后出台一揽子货币政策举措，加强逆周期调节，保持流动性充裕，坚定支持股市、债 市、汇市等金融市场稳定运行，为经济稳定增长创造了良好的货币金融环境。 会议认为，过去五年，面对 ...

中国央行党委召开会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神。会议强调，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系。处理好短期与长期、支持实体经济增长与保持金融业自身健康性、内部与外部的关系。根据经济金融运行情况，把握好货币政策的力度、时机和节奏，充分释放各项货币政策效能，为经济稳定增长和高质量发展创造良好的货币金融环境。动态完善货币政策框架，加强货币政策执行和传导。深化人民币汇率形成机制改革，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。拓展丰富中央银行宏观审慎和金融稳定功能，维护股市、债市、汇市等金融市场平稳运行。继续会同有关部门做好支持地方中小金融机构、地方政府融资平台债务、房地产市场风险化解工作，严肃财经纪律、市场纪律和监管规则，防范道德风险。健全金融稳定保障体系，加快推进金融立法。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the persistent inflation in the U.S. and its implications for monetary policy, particularly the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in response to economic pressures [8][9]. Inflation Analysis - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates that the market is still adjusting to the dual impacts of tariffs and energy price fluctuations, with the overall inflation rate remaining high [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise significantly for the second consecutive month, driven by higher prices for goods affected by tariffs, especially imported clothing, food, and fuel [8]. - Despite the overall inflationary pressures, price increases in the services sector, particularly in air travel and accommodation, may slow down [8]. Core Inflation Trends - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to show a moderate increase of around 0.3%, which, while above long-term targets, remains within a controllable range [8]. - This level of core inflation provides room for continued monetary policy easing, especially as corporate profit margins are under pressure and hiring is slowing [8]. Economic Implications - U.S. companies are facing challenges in passing on costs, with some manufacturers absorbing tariff costs while cutting back on hiring and delaying investments [9]. - This short-term strategy may alleviate profit pressures but could suppress consumer spending and employment growth in the long run, creating new economic concerns [9]. - Consumers are bearing part of the tax burden, which diminishes real purchasing power [9]. Market Outlook - The CPI data for September is expected to confirm the stubborn nature of U.S. inflation, but market reactions may be relatively muted [9]. - Investors are more focused on the Federal Reserve's decision-making in the upcoming meeting; if inflation remains around 3% while growth momentum weakens, rate cuts may be a more reasonable choice [9]. - For the forex market, this scenario suggests that the dollar may continue to face pressure, while risk assets could find short-term support [9]. Policy Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and future policy guidance, as current inflation is driven by a combination of tariffs, energy prices, and supply chain adjustments [9]. - The flexibility of monetary policy will be crucial in determining future market directions in this complex environment [9].

10月24日，中国人民银行公告， 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月27日（周一），中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展9000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网 ...