Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating and Core View - The overall view of the non-ferrous metals industry is that the breakdown of the US dollar index provides a boost to base metals. In the short and medium term, high inventories put pressure on prices, but the logic of a weak US dollar and supply disruption concerns remains. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to lead to tighter supply - demand conditions. The report suggests paying attention to opportunities for low - absorption and long - position in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. [1] Group 2: Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][6] - **Logic**: In 2026, the Fed may continue to be loose, providing support to copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the processing fees for long - term contracts in 2026 are at a record low, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction in refined copper. Although terminal demand is weak during the off - season and inventory is accumulating, the future supply - demand is expected to be tighter. [6] Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate, with a medium - term outlook of oscillation. [2][7] - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase. [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a short - term outlook of being volatile and bullish, and a medium - term outlook of the price center rising. [2][9] - **Logic**: The macro - environment is positive, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "Two New" policies. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, but there are supply constraints overseas. High aluminum prices suppress demand in the short term, but overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. [10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a short - and medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][11] - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but there may be supply constraints from policies. Demand is mainly for rigid needs in the short term, and the "old - for - new" policy for cars is expected to support demand in the medium term. [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector has improved, and zinc prices have stabilized and rebounded, with an overall outlook of oscillation. [2][12] - **Logic**: Although US economic data has pushed up the US dollar, the expectation of a weak US dollar remains. Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits are declining. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, but zinc exports are expected to continue, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has room to decline. In the long term, zinc supply is expected to increase while demand growth is limited. [13] Lead - **View**: Social inventory is accumulating, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is good, and lead prices fluctuate, with an outlook of oscillation. [2][17] - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but the demand for automotive batteries is improving. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years. [17] Nickel - **View**: Policy expectations compete with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with an overall oversupply in the fundamentals. Indonesia's potential policy changes regarding nickel ore pricing and quotas have adjusted market expectations, and continuous follow - up is needed. [19] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][20] - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the off - season. [21] Tin - **View**: Supply - demand tension continues, and tin prices are bullish, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][21] - **Logic**: Supply issues are the key factors. Although the supply situation in Wa State may improve, short - term supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the landslide in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. On the demand side, the global economy is expected to improve, and the demand for tin in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. [22] Group 3: Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial product index is 2369.84, up 0.40%. [148] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On January 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index is 2830.27, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.37%. [150]

鲍威尔的主席任期将于5月中旬结束。白宫发言人Kush Desai表示，在特朗普正式宣布之前，任何关于 美联储主席提名过程的报道都是"毫无意义的猜测"。提名人选须经参议院确认。 政策主张：重视生产率变革，质疑滞后数据 Rieder的核心观点是美联储过度依赖反映过去状况的通胀数据，而对经济变化的关注不足。他认为，人 工智能、自动化和物流带来的生产率提升正在重塑经济和劳动力市场，但传统指标捕捉这些变化的速度 太慢。在他看来，政策决策对经济的影响存在长期滞后。 法国巴黎银行分析师指出，Rieder认同美联储2%的年度通胀目标及其沟通方式，但持有超出共识的经济 展望。他比现任美联储官员更重视生产率提升的规模和持久性，以及这些因素对增长、通胀和劳动力市 场的影响。 独立研究机构42 Macro创始人Darius Dale表示，通胀数据往往在商业周期后期达到峰值，基于这些数据 的政策决策到来得太慢。Dale认为Rieder理解正在进行的生产率转变规模，以及高利率对住房和劳动力 流动性造成的压力。"委员会会呈现主席的个性特征，"Dale说，"在结构性变革时刻，你需要一个理解 市场和经济走向的人。" 住房市场成为政策焦点 贝莱 ...

（原标题：由于政治僵局，泰经济增长速度预计将会放缓） 据曼谷邮报1月23日报道，CIMB泰国银行预计，由于国内政治局势的动荡 以及外部环境的不确定性，泰国今年第一季度的GDP增长速度将会比上季度有 所放缓。 该银行预测，由于出口下滑的影响，泰国今年的GDP增长率将为1.6%。这 一情况是在2025年出口表现强劲之后的结果——当时预计出口量将增长12%， 从而使GDP增加2.1%。 此外，Amonthep先生表示，货币政策委员会的宽松货币政策已于12月结 束——当时央行将政策利率下调了25个基点，降至1.25%。预计2026年，货币 政策委员会会全年保持政策利率不变。 CIMBT认为，由于中央银行对黄金交易的监管措施，泰铢会呈现疲软走势。国 内政治上的不确定性以及泰国主权信用评级的下调也可能对泰铢造成压力。 CIMBT预计泰国第二季度的经济增长率为1.2%；新政府在6月成立后所实 施的各项经济刺激措施对经济增长起到了一定的推动作用。泰国定于2月8日举 行大选。 根据这种情景预测，GDP增长速度将在今年下半年有所好转，第三和第四 季度的增长率分别将达到2.5%和2.4%。 Amonthep先生表示，旅游业预计仍将 ...

市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，此前美联储已计划在2025年底前连续三次降 息。因此，各方关注的焦点将是官员们是否会暗示他们计划维持利率不变多久。 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛首席美国经济学家戴维・梅里克尔（David Mericle）在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施 两次降息，首次降息落地6月。 美联储去年曾于9月、10月、12月三次降息，当前政策利率区间已调至3.50%-3.75%，这些举措也是美联 储在劳动力市场增长放缓、经济数据走弱背景下释放的货币宽松信号。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 安永帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里・达科（Gregory Daco）表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，且通胀率 更接近3%而非2%的目标，未来降息的前提是，有明确证据表明通胀持续回落，或就业市场再度恶化。 "货币政策或已接近中性，这意味着未来的宽松举措将推进得 ...

US stocks were modestly higher on Monday as investors navigated a mix of political uncertainty, a packed earnings calendar and anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's first policy decision of the year. The S&P 500 edged up 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 170 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite hovered around the flatline, reflecting a cautious tone in growth-oriented stocks ahead of key catalysts later in the week. Among individual movers, shares of Meta Platforms and Apple rose mo ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices continue to rise due to geopolitical events in North America, increasing investor concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, benefiting from dollar depreciation and safe-haven demand [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, central bank gold purchases and the increase in gold ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices [1] - For silver, the London silver leasing rate has decreased, but US silver inventory is declining rapidly [1] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to a "hard shortage" and "soft coercion," with supply disruptions from strikes in Chile affecting major copper mines [2] - The market is also reacting to potential changes in US monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate expectations [2] - Aluminum prices are maintaining high levels due to strong macroeconomic performance, with daily production increasing from new projects in China and Indonesia [2] Group 3: Energy Metals and Rare Earths - Lithium production is experiencing seasonal declines, with continuous inventory depletion, while battery product export tax rebates are expected to decrease, potentially front-loading battery demand [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while cobalt companies are extending their reach into downstream electric new energy sectors [3] - Rare earth prices have slightly retreated, but overall market sentiment is stabilizing, with limited downside potential for prices [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs, supported by extreme tightness in supply, with strategic value being reassessed due to its applications in defense and high-end manufacturing [3] - Uranium supply remains rigid, and the development of nuclear power is expected to create a persistent supply-demand gap, leading to potential price increases [3]

截至1月23日，单位净值为1.141元。基金经理是缪佳、陶毅和刘星宇。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，宏观方面，四季度经济动能放缓、内外需分化加剧。经济延续供强需弱格局，内需相关的投资、消费均明显走弱，信贷需求持 续乏力，经济核心支撑来自出口韧性。整体通胀水平仍处负值区间，四季度反内卷对PPI的影响边际弱化，CPI受低基数支撑边际修复。政策方面，年末政治 局会议、中央经济工作会议落地，货币政策延续宽松定调、财政保持必要强度，超预期增量指引相对有限。利率方面，四季度机构行为是债市定价主导，收 益率震荡上行。节奏上，10月受海外关税政策反复、央行重启买债支撑，利率震荡下行修复。11月机构止盈情绪升温，利率转为震荡。12月机构赎回情绪进 一步走高，叠加年末大行久期指标压力，债市利率震荡上行。 转债方面，四季度表现区间震荡，中证转债指数小幅上涨1.32%。转债估值在经历9月的剧烈波动后开始趋于稳定，百元平价溢价率保持在30%左右的水平窄 幅震荡。结构上，由于股票风格从大盘成长回归均衡，转债内部分化相对较小，低价指数小幅领涨。节奏上，10月在中美贸易摩擦升级下调整，月底缓解后 恢复上行；11月中旬在北美AI叙事质疑和美联储 ...

"2026年，我们认为在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。"中国金融四十 人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，2026年主要发达经济体的需求较大概率继续保持稳健增长，叠加中美经贸 关系有望在短期内企稳，中国经济面临的外部环境在边际改善。此外，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策延续，为经济增长提供有力支撑。 上述报告称，综合现有宏观指标表现，中国经济虽面临多重挑战，但仍表现出一系列积极变化。金融市 场较2024年有明显改善，股票、人民币汇率等关键金融资产价格表现强劲。 中国金融四十人论坛资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌强调了货币政策的作 用，他表示，要坚定市场信心，要有明确的态度和尽量少的目标。 中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)26日在北京举行2025年第四季度宏观政策报告发布会。报告指出，要持续保 持经济复苏态势，需要更加积极的逆周期政策。财政政策要保持支出力度，货币政策是激活内需的关 键。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) ...

(一)地缘政治：短期情绪导火索 中东冲突持续升级，美伊紧张加剧，红海航运受阻推高能源与大宗商品波动，资金涌入贵金属避险。 格陵兰岛争端、东欧局势反复，全球风险偏好下降，白银作为 "平民黄金"，成为中小资金避险的高弹 性选择。 地缘风险推升通胀预期，叠加避险买盘，进一步强化白银的抗通胀与避险双重属性。 (二)货币政策：美元走弱与降息预期强化 美联储官员上周密集释放 "鸽派" 信号，暗示 2026 年降息 3 次，市场预期 3 月或开启降息周期，美元指 数跌破 100 关口，以美元计价的白银吸引力大增。 美国财政赤字高企(2025 年达 3.2 万亿美元)，美元信用弱化，全球央行增持黄金、白银以分散储备，私 人资金跟风配置。 实际利率下行预期明确，降低白银持有机会成本，推动 ETF 与期货资金流入。 (三)工业需求：新能源与科技驱动爆发 光伏是核心增量：2025 年全球光伏用银量达 7560 吨，较 2022 年翻倍;2026 年预计全球光伏装机 600 吉 瓦，新增用银约 6 万吨，银浆需求刚性上涨。 新能源汽车、AI 数据中心、5G 基站等领域用银量持续增长，工业需求占白银总需求超 50%，成为中长 期核心支 ...

Group 1 - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $4891.1 per ounce by January 21, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% within 20 days [1] - Domestic gold futures also surged, with the main contract price exceeding 1100 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase of 4.61% [1] - Gold stocks have seen a wave of limit-up trading, with multiple companies such as Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold experiencing substantial gains, and the gold stock ETF (159562) rising by 5.73% on the day and 25.82% over the past 13 trading days [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, monetary policy, central bank allocations, and the reconstruction of dollar credit, with heightened geopolitical tensions being a primary driver for increased safe-haven investments [5] - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on several countries and the subsequent military exercises led by Denmark, has intensified trade tensions and contributed to the influx of capital into gold [5]