此番言论凸显出，在美联储官员连续第三次会议降息后，进一步降息的前景不确定。政策制定者对通胀 与就业前景存在分歧。上周会议公布的最新预测显示，官员们仅预期2026年将实施一次降息。 来源：环球市场播报 纽约联储银行行长威廉姆斯表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，近期就业和通胀数据几乎没有改 变他的预期。 "我个人并没有紧迫感，认为当前需要在货币政策方面采取进一步行动，因为我认为，我们已经实施的 降息使政策处于非常好的状态，"威廉姆斯周五在接受采访时表示，"我希望看到通胀回落至2%，同时 不对劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这要达到一种平衡。" 威廉姆斯表示，本周公布的就业和通胀报告反映了近期政府停摆造成的数据扭曲。但他指出，这些数据 表明基本通胀继续在向美联储2%的目标迈进，同时劳动力市场也在逐步降温。 ...

格隆汇12月19日｜美联储威廉姆斯周五表示，某些"技术因素"可能扭曲了11月份的消费者价格指数 （CPI）数据，导致该数据低于实际水平。威廉姆斯表示："有一些特殊的实际因素，与他们无法在10月 份和11月上半月收集数据有关。正因为如此，我认为某些类别的数据受到了扭曲，这可能导致CPI数据 被拉低了大约0.1个百分点。"威廉姆斯还表示，美国经济目前处于"良好状态"，并暗示他"最终会看 到"利率下降。但他强调，他并不急于调整货币政策。 ...

钛媒体App 12月19日消息，美联储威廉姆斯周五表示，某些"技术因素"可能扭曲了11月份的消费者价格 指数（CPI）数据，导致该数据低于实际水平。威廉姆斯表示："有一些特殊的实际因素，与他们无法在 10月份和11月上半月收集数据有关。正因为如此，我认为某些类别的数据受到了扭曲，这可能导致CPI 数据被拉低了大约0.1个百分点。"威廉姆斯还表示，美国经济目前处于"良好状态"，并暗示他"最终会 看到"利率下降。但他强调，他并不急于调整货币政策。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent State Council meeting led by Premier Li Qiang, focusing on the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for effective coordination among government departments to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2][3]. Economic Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the commitment to a more proactive macroeconomic policy in the coming year, with an emphasis on an expansionary fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue the "debt-for-investment" approach, with a focus on issuing special refinancing bonds and special bonds for project construction [4][5]. - The anticipated issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds will occur in the first two quarters to alleviate local government debt pressures [5]. Fiscal Measures - The new special bond quota is projected to be 5 trillion yuan, with approximately 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt clearance and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, which will accelerate in the second quarter [5]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds may increase to 1.8 trillion yuan, starting in the second quarter, to work in tandem with special bonds [5]. VAT Law Implementation - The meeting approved the draft implementation regulations for the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [6][7]. - The VAT rates will remain at 13%, 9%, and 6%, with a zero rate for certain conditions, ensuring stability in tax revenue and fiscal governance [7].

12月18日，欧洲中央银行行长拉加德在德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部出席新闻发布会。 新华社/路透 The Research rate Datable of a 1997 The States of and and B ar us 欧洲中央银行18日在位于德国法兰克福的总部召开货币政策会议，决定继续维持欧元区三大关键利率不变。欧洲央行当天发布新闻公报说，欧元区存款机制 利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率分别维持在2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不变。 这是12月18日日落时分在德国法兰克福拍摄的欧洲央行总部。 新华社/美联 12月18日，欧洲中央银行行长拉加德在德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部举行的新闻发布会上讲话。 新华社/法新 12月18日，欧洲中央银行行长拉加德在德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部出席新闻发布会。 新华社/法新 the are Free St 129 all all and and the states of ra 20 2812- ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 经济数据方面，欧元区10月份失业率6.4%，连续6个月保持不变。11月核心通胀率2.4%，连续三个月保 持不变。中央银行调整货币政策的依据是就业市场和通胀的变化的情况，在欧元区失业率和通胀率均保 持绝对稳定的状态下，我们认为，欧央行没有必要调整货币政策。对比来看，英国的失业率在2025年一 直在稳步升高，意味着英国的宏观经济存在衰退迹象，英央行将不得不降低利率以提振经济。 ▲ATFX图 行情方面，日线级别，EURUSD处于中期横盘震荡状态，震荡开始的时间是6月19日。EURUSD的震荡 状态能够持续半年时间，足见当前震荡区间的上下限得到了广泛资金的认可。在没有新的超预期信息扰 动下，EURUSD不会轻易突破震荡区间。图中1.1917是中期高点，1.1467是中期低点，1.1467低点形成 后开的上涨波段，是在寻找新的中期高点。考虑到当前中期趋势为震荡，所以前一个中期高点1.1917有 可能成为本轮上涨走势的强阻力位。 12月19日，ATFX汇评：今日有英国央行和欧央行两场重量级利率决议，前者预期降息25基点，但仍存 在按兵不动的可能；后者预期将按兵不动，维持三大关键政策利率不变，但 ...

由于日元全线下跌，美元/日元汇率飙升至接近157.00。 日本央行将利率上调至0.75%，创下三十年来的新高。 由于市场对美联储1月份会议的鸽派预期降低，美元继续上涨。 周五欧洲交易时段，美元/日元上涨0.85%，至接近156.90。在日本央行(BoJ)公布货币政策后，日元全线下跌，导致该货币对飙 升。 在政策会议上，日本央行如预期般将利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到三十年来的最高水平。市场此前预计日本央行会这样 做，因为包括行长植田和男在内的官员近期发表的言论表明，他们对通胀持续接近央行2%的目标充满信心。 尽管日本央行仍为进一步加息敞开大门，但日元仍承受着巨大压力。日本央行行长植田和男在新闻发布会上表示："如果经济 和物价走势符合预期，我们将根据经济和物价的改善情况继续提高政策利率。" 日本央行没有透露2026年何时以及将如何加息，这似乎对日元造成了压力，使投资者对货币政策前景感到迷茫。 与此同时，美元走强也提振了该货币对。截至发稿时，衡量美元兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数(DXY)创下周内新高，接近 98.65。 尽管美国11月份通胀有所降温，但由于市场对美联储1月份会议的鸽派预期仍然较低，美元继续上 ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4326.22 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 975.90 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 979.30 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 979.90 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)周四数据，美国11月CPI通胀降至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普周三表示，下任美联储主席将是一位相信大幅降低利率的人。他进一步表示， 将很快宣布现任美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的继任者。 根据CME FedWatch工具，在美联储最近三次会议上每次降息25个基点后，金融市场目前仅定价26.6% 的概率，认为美联储将在1月下次会议上降息。 在本周末美国与俄罗斯官员会晤之前，美国总统特朗普表示，他相信结束俄乌冲突的谈判"正在接近某 种结果"。一位白宫官员说，特朗普特使威特科夫和库什纳计划于本周末在迈阿密会见一个俄罗斯代表 团，他们将继续努力促使俄乌双方达成协议，以结束冲突。分析师指出，如果周末谈判取得进展，下周 金价将面临大幅低开的可能性。 摘要北京时间周五(12月19日)欧洲 ...

日本央行称，经济已温和复苏，尽管仍存在一些疲软迹象。工资和通胀很可能继续温和同步上升。 将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度出发，适时实施货币政策。即使在利率变动后，货币环境依 然宽松，支持经济。 政策声明全文 货币市场操作指引变化 SHMET 网讯：周五，日本央行将基准利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，符合市场预期。利率水平创30年 来新高，这也是2025年1月以后，日本央行11个月来再次进行加息。日本央行一致通过政策决议。 根据声明，日本央行预计实际利率将维持在显著低位，"即使在加息之后，实际利率仍处于深度负 值区间"。若经济和物价走势与预测一致，并随着经济和物价的改善，将继续上调政策利率。 在今日召开的货币政策会议上，日本央行政策委员会以全票通过，决定将会议间隔期的货币市场操 作指引设定如下： 日本央行将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维持在约0.75%的水平。 根据货币市场操作指引的调整，日本央行以全票通过，决定调整其相关措施所适用的利率。 （1）补充性存款便利适用利率 补充性存款便利适用的利率（即金融机构在日本央行持有的往来账户余额中，扣除法定准备金后的 部分所适用的利率）为0.75%。 （2）基本贷款利率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it's hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase [1][22]. - After the content of the Central Economic Work Conference is clear, the bond market within the year will revolve around institutional behavior and the equity market. The bond market is expected to be mainly volatile, with a high probability of a steeper yield curve. Ultra - long bonds will still have high volatility, and it's not advisable to overly expect an end - of - year rush - to - buy market [1][22][24]. - One can moderately grasp the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds with a maturity of 7 years or less, as well as the term spread of 5Y - 3Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Event Reviews 3.1.1 Financial Data - As of the end of November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.5%. In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the balance of M2 at the end of November increased by 8% year - on - year. In November, social financing increased year - on - year, with an increase in corporate bond financing scale. However, government bond financing and on - balance - sheet credit financing were still drag factors. RMB loans decreased year - on - year in November. In terms of structure, short - term corporate loans improved, while medium - and long - term corporate loans still decreased year - on - year, and the bill financing impulse was obvious. The household sector continued to de - leverage. The year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined in November [7]. - Looking ahead, policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost credit, but the high base of government bond financing remains a drag. The year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock may decline slightly, and the progress of household deposit transfer is still worthy of attention [7]. 3.1.2 Economic Data - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industries above the designated size was 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%. Domestic demand continued to be weak, and effective demand still needed to be boosted. In terms of production, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value slowed down slightly in November. In terms of investment, the decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment further expanded in November. In terms of consumption, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in November, while the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of service consumption increased slightly [8][9]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the "anti - involution" and a slight weakening of exports will restrict production in December. The growth rate of industrial production in 2025 is expected to be about 5.8%, the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be about 2.0%, the infrastructure investment is expected to show a recovery trend with a growth rate of about 1.0% in 2025, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 is expected to be around 3.7% [9]. 3.1.3 Fiscal Data - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year; the national government - funded budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 13.7% year - on - year. In terms of public finance revenue, the year - on - year increase in tax revenue was slightly expanded. In terms of public finance expenditure, the year - on - year growth rate of expenditure declined, mainly due to the earlier expenditure rhythm this year. In terms of the expenditure structure, the three focuses of public finance expenditure from January to November were people's livelihood, science and technology, and green, and efforts were further increased in the science and technology field in November. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue side was still dragged down by the land market [10]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the Central Economic Work Conference continued to describe fiscal policy as "more proactive", emphasizing the guarantee of necessary expenditures. In terms of rhythm, it will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds". In terms of structure, attention can be paid to strengthening the financial guarantee for major national strategies, accelerating debt resolution, and tax system reform [10]. 3.2 Funding Prices: Central Bank's Injection of Cross - Year Funds - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the central bank's net injection of funds in the open market was 134 billion yuan. The central bank over - renewed 200 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase agreements and conducted 100 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to support the cross - year funding situation. On December 18th, DR014 and R014 increased by 10bp and 6bp respectively, while DR001 and DR007 remained stable. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the decline in CD yields at the end of the year [11][12]. 3.3 Primary Market: Decrease in Supply Scale - From December 12th to December 18th, a total of 46 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market. There was no end - of - year surge in the issuance of special bonds. Since December, the issuance frequency of the China Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank of China has also decreased, and the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is limited [14]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Steeper Yield Curve - During the period from December 12th to December 18th, the yields of Treasury bonds with different maturities showed differentiation. The yields of medium - and short - term Treasury bonds mostly declined, while the yields of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds increased slightly, showing a steeper yield curve. The decline in medium - and short - term interest rates may be related to the loose funding situation. The winning bid rate of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation may have decreased compared with that in September, driving up the short - term bullish sentiment. The long - term interest rate has a strong gaming sentiment, with a larger single - day fluctuation range. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a psychological support level of 1.85%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond yield has less upward resistance and greater fluctuation [16]. 3.5 Market Outlook 3.5.1 Fundamental Aspect It's difficult to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing currently. Policy expectations, asset price - to - ratio, and institutional behavior are still the main influencing factors. In 2026, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase, and price signals are the key [1][22]. 3.5.2 Policy Aspect - In 2026, fiscal policy will "actively act ahead" and "reasonably speed up the allocation and disbursement of funds", with a similar rhythm to 2025. In terms of expenditure structure, it will "strengthen the financial guarantee for major national strategies and promote more funds and resources to be invested in people", and supporting people's livelihood remains an important direction [1][22]. - Monetary policy emphasizes "striving to achieve economic growth and price recovery" and supplements the original statement of "matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations". Reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and liquidity injection tools of various maturities will be used flexibly [1][22]. 3.5.3 Funding Aspect As the cross - year period approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operations, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [1][22].