Group 1 - The US dollar index closed down 0.14% at 99.48 on November 11 [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced declines, with the euro rising 0.22% to 1.1583 against the dollar [1] - The British pound fell 0.21% to 1.3149 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar decreased by 0.14% to 0.6527 [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated slightly against the Japanese yen, increasing by 0.01% to 154.1495 [1] - The US dollar also saw a minor decline of 0.01% against the Canadian dollar, settling at 1.4019 [1] - The US dollar dropped 0.55% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8005 [1]

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.16% to 99.428 points at the end of trading on Tuesday, November 11 [1] - The intraday trading range for the index was between 99.738 and 99.287 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate indicate a generally strong performance despite minor adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing the CFETS index and other currency baskets [1][2]. Exchange Rate Trends - On November 11, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0866, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Since breaking the 7.1 mark on October 15, the RMB has maintained a strong performance, with a peak of 7.0836 on November 7, the highest since October 16, 2024 [1]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 97.96, the BIS index was at 104.19, and the SDR index was at 92.34, all marking new highs since mid-April [1]. Influencing Factors - The recent slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a small increase in the USD index, which rose by 0.17% last week [2]. - The USD index closed at 99.6202 on November 10 and peaked at 99.739 on November 11 [2]. - Despite external pressures, domestic economic policies are expected to provide support for the RMB, ensuring stability in the fourth quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The RMB is anticipated to exhibit a mild appreciation next year, provided that exports do not experience unexpected changes [3].

Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart show a clear contraction, with prices retreating from the upper band and finding support near the lower band around 104,600, currently oscillating near the middle band at 105,000. This indicates intense short-term bullish and bearish battles, with the market remaining in a wide range of 104,000-108,000, and key support/resistance levels not being effectively breached [1] - The MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines converging below the zero axis, with a shortening green momentum bar, indicating weakened short-term downward momentum, but no clear bullish crossover has formed, requiring observation of the rebound's sustainability [1] - The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone (below 30) to around 50, hovering in the neutral zone without showing overbought/oversold signals, confirming the oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with prices oscillating around the middle and lower bands (3,500-3,560), forming a typical converging triangle. The middle band (3,580) faced pressure and retreated, indicating insufficient short-term bullish strength, but the 3,500 support level remains intact without a breakdown [2] - During the rebound, trading volume has not significantly increased, showing a price rise with reduced volume, suggesting that the upward momentum relies on short covering rather than active buying, necessitating caution against false breakout risks [2] - The OBV indicator shows the energy tide line oscillating in sync with prices, confirming the current state as a range fluctuation rather than a trending market [2] Group 3: Cross-Asset Technical Insights - The strengthening of the US dollar in the short term is suppressing the rebound potential of cryptocurrencies, but it does not alter the oscillating nature of Bitcoin and Ethereum, necessitating attention to the resistance at the 95 level of the US dollar index and its subsequent impact on the market [3]

就业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少1.1万个工作岗位。而上周的另一个数据系列，ADP则预计10月份私营部门增加4.2万个就业岗位。该数据旨在更接近地复制非农报告。#行情 数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线跳水，非美货币集体上涨，现货黄金小幅走高。 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index rebounded to 99.55 in October, with a monthly increase of 1.76%. Most non-USD currencies declined, except for the ruble and the ringgit, while gold hit a yearly high before retracing, and commodity prices mostly fell [1]. Economic Data - US inflation data showed a lower-than-expected CPI of 3% year-on-year for September, compared to the expected 3.1%. Core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.4% [4]. - The labor market outlook is concerning, with September's non-farm employment and unemployment rate data delayed due to the government shutdown. The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000 [5]. - Consumer confidence continues to decline, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October at 53.6, below the expected 55, marking a fourth consecutive month of decline [5]. - Manufacturing showed signs of recovery, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October at 52.5, up from 52.2 previously [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in October, from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%. There were internal divisions regarding future rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed due to missing economic data from the government shutdown [10][11]. - The market's expectations for a December rate cut have diminished, with the Fed's hawkish stance providing support for the dollar [10]. Currency Performance - The euro weakened in October, failing to maintain its strength from September, dropping from a high of 1.1733 to 1.1534 by month-end, breaking below an upward channel formed since April 2025 [16]. - The Japanese yen faced pressure, with USDJPY rising 4.7% in October, reaching a high of 153.99, driven by expectations of delayed interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [19][20]. - The British pound also declined, down 2.2% in October, influenced by weak economic data and increased expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England in December [23][24]. - The Malaysian ringgit showed resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in Q3 and a trade surplus of 19.9 billion ringgit, despite external pressures [29][30]. Commodity Prices - Commodity prices generally fell, with notable declines in energy prices such as Brent crude oil down 0.60% and natural gas prices fluctuating [4]. - Gold prices retraced after reaching a yearly high, while other commodities like iron ore and steel also saw declines [4]. Outlook - The US economy may face a challenging environment with persistent labor market weakness and rising inflation pressures due to tariffs, leading to a potential stagflation scenario [14]. - The euro is expected to remain under pressure, with a forecasted trading range of 1.14 to 1.18 in November [16]. - The Japanese yen may continue to weaken if US economic data remains strong or if Japan's fiscal stimulus exceeds expectations, with a projected range of 151 to 158.5 for USDJPY in November [20]. - The British pound is likely to remain weak, with a trading range of 1.27 to 1.34 anticipated for November [24]. - The Malaysian ringgit is expected to continue its range-bound movement, with a forecasted range of 4.15 to 4.30 for USD/MYR [30].

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee remains stable against the US Dollar, fluctuating around 88.85, with market activity being relatively subdued as investors await progress in US-India trade negotiations [1] - US and Indian negotiators have expressed optimism, indicating that discussions are nearing completion, although the lack of a formal agreement keeps market sentiment cautious [1] - Foreign institutional investors have shown reduced enthusiasm for the Indian stock market, with net sales of approximately 41.14 billion Rupees, reflecting short-term confidence issues [1] Group 2 - The US Dollar Index is stable around 99.65, with limited overall volatility following the Senate's approval of a temporary funding bill, which alleviates some market uncertainty [2] - The market anticipates the release of delayed economic data as US government operations resume, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the Dollar [2] - There is a 62.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December, indicating a general expectation for a more accommodative monetary policy [2] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/INR exchange rate is currently above the short-term moving average, with key indicators suggesting a potential breakout from the recent trading range [4] - Important resistance is noted at the historical high of 89.12, while downward support is focused on the August low of 87.07 [4]

Overall Information - Report title: "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report" [1][2][5] - Report date: November 11, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened higher and then fell back, maintaining a volatile trend during the day with little change in open interest. The recent decline of the US dollar index and the agreement in the US Senate to end the government shutdown have boosted market risk appetite. The spot premium has rebounded. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 87,000 yuan mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell back, with a weak intraday oscillation and open interest increasing first and then decreasing. The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. As aluminum prices rise, downstream purchasing willingness has declined. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with open interest increasing when prices fell and decreasing when prices rebounded. The weak industry continues to put pressure on nickel prices, and nickel prices have not recovered above the 120,000 yuan mark even when the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively strong. Continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 yuan level [8]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Cochilco data, Codelco's copper production in September decreased by 7% month-on-month to 115,600 tons. On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Aluminum**: On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. Related Charts Copper - **Base difference**: Chart 1 shows the copper base difference [13]. - **Domestic visible inventory**: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [14]. - **LME cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - **Base difference**: Chart 7 shows the aluminum base difference [24]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart 8 shows the aluminum monthly spread [30]. - **Domestic social inventory**: Chart 9 shows the electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26]. - **SHFE - LME ratio**: Chart 11 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 10 shows the electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32]. - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - **Base difference**: Chart shows the nickel base difference [38]. - **LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [40]. - **LME nickel trend**: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [41]. - **SHFE inventory**: Chart 16 shows the SHFE nickel inventory [43]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart shows the nickel monthly spread [45]. - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.4% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Regional Market Dynamics - The decline in the A-share market was not isolated, as stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region also exhibited a "high open, low close" pattern [5] - The initial high opening was influenced by a significant rise in the US stock market the previous night, but this was followed by a drop in various markets [6] US Government and Economic Data Concerns - Concerns regarding the US government "shutdown" and its potential impact on economic data have heightened, with expectations of a stronger US dollar attracting funds away from other markets [8] - The US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, but the final approval from the House of Representatives and the President is still pending [8] - Analysts express that the absence of economic data during the government shutdown may mask structural slowdowns in hiring, which could benefit the dollar [8] AI Hardware Sector - The AI hardware sector mirrored the overall market trend, showing a significant "high open, low close" pattern [9] - Concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector in the US have negatively impacted related stocks in the A-share market [12] - Notably, Michael Burry raised alarms about the overestimation of profits by major tech companies due to accounting practices, which could lead to a significant profit overstatement by 2028 [13] Fund Management and Investment Style - Recent adjustments in institutional fund management styles may lead to market volatility, as funds shift away from popular sectors [14] - The China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association has proposed guidelines to regulate theme investment styles, aiming to protect investors' rights [16] Emerging Opportunities in Cultivated Diamonds - The cultivated diamond sector emerged as a leader in market gains, with a closing increase of over 6% [17] - Demand for cultivated diamonds is driven by both consumer and industrial markets, with recent advancements in semiconductor cooling technology enhancing their perceived value [19] - Regulatory changes announced by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs may also impact the cultivated diamond industry positively [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium**: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - **Fruits and Others**: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].