Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the silver market is experiencing high volatility and a significant drop in prices, with a noted decrease of 17% in the closing price to 24,832 yuan per kilogram [1] - The market sentiment is cautious as funds are exiting the silver market, leading to panic and a sharp decline in prices [4] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, indicating increased regulatory pressure [4] Group 2 - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates more than twice this year, with each cut expected to be 25 basis points [1] - The current interest rate range is between 3.50% and 3.75%, with the neutral rate estimated to be around 3% [3] - Some Federal Reserve officials believe that further rate cuts are not advisable as the current policy is already neutral and the economy does not require additional stimulus [3]

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 平安证券指出，2025年受美联储降息影响，HIBOR下行对中国香港银行业息差造成一定压力，但行业 息差展现出较强韧性，整体降幅可控。展望2026年，预计随着HIBOR利率下行，息差仍将承压，但随 着存款成本同步回落以及贷款端需求修复的支撑，息差降幅整体可控。香港经济回暖将推动银行业信贷 投放积极，资产规模将保持增长态势，规模扩张可能一定程度缓解息差下行压力。2025年以来，受益于 经济复苏，中国香港银行业信贷投放逐步修复，零售增长表现优于对公。对公板块受益于香港金融市场 活跃度提升以及制造业回暖，零售方面则随消费回暖修复。资产质量边际企稳，经济复苏推动不良率企 稳，部分指标开始改善，核心一级资本充足率、拨备覆盖率维持高位，风险抵御能力充足。整体而言， 行业基本面有望 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that silver prices are currently experiencing a significant decline, with a drop of 14.73% reported, reflecting a bearish trend in the short term [1] - The opening price of silver was 19.112 yuan per gram, with a high of 19.655 yuan and a low of 16.210 yuan, suggesting high volatility in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is cautious, with officials expressing reluctance to support further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The analysis of silver prices shows a downward trend, with a decline exceeding 11%, and the market is currently dominated by bearish sentiment [2] - The one-hour MACD indicates a weakening of downward momentum, while the DMI confirms the ongoing downtrend, suggesting potential continued pressure on prices [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified between 16.50 and 17.50, while resistance levels are noted between 19.50 and 20.50 [2]

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 展望后市，本次贵金属市场的崩盘给原本的上涨趋势踩下刹车、短期市场或继续释放风险。但在经历了近期的太幅调整后、市场风险也得到一定释放、随着杠 杆的去化，叠加伊朗地缘仍旧复杂和美国政府正式部分停摆等，预计金银价格后续进一步大幅下挫空间或相对有限。白银方面，现货仍旧偏紧、库存持续回落，且 隐波高达100以上，短期玻动料仍较为તી?。中长朝来看，本次贵金属价格的崩盘并不意味着贵金属牛市格局的结束，在美联储年内仍有降息概率，全球地缘不确定 性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍有上行空间、可关注本次暴跌后带来的逢 低配置机会。 体我告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，但更期货力求准确可靠。但不对上越信息的准确性及完熟性依任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者保持知投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资 者需三行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况，融此投资。责任会负。本报告仅向标定客户推送，来组国资降货资政许可，任何引用、转载以及可第三方传播的行为少购成或回贸贸股权规 声明 我司 ...

Report Title - Zinc Futures and Options February 2026 Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - **Macro**: The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the manufacturing sectors in China and the US show resilience. Geopolitical disturbances, the emphasis on key supply chains in AI, high - tech manufacturing, and energy transition have amplified the positive impact on the supply side. Capital flowing from precious metals to non - ferrous metals has boosted sector rotation. However, there is a divergence between strong expectations and actual demand, and a significant correction due to weakening expectations should be guarded against [6]. - **Supply**: Zinc concentrate supply is seasonally tight. Domestic smelters have completed winter stockpiling, but some lead - zinc mines in China had routine maintenance and shutdowns in January, weakening domestic supply. Overseas mines are also affected by factors like the Iran situation and community protests. European natural gas price hikes and low LME inventories have strengthened the external market. Domestic refined zinc shows a situation of weak supply and demand and is in a stage of inventory accumulation [6]. - **Demand**: In 2026, the real estate sector is stabilizing and recovering. Manufacturing is expected to be led by high - end manufacturing and AI development. There is a divergence between price increases and seasonal weakness in the downstream. In terms of imports and exports, the export performance was good in 2025, and in 2026, the incremental space for zinc demand is still mainly in the overseas market. The domestic and export demand for galvanized products is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory is recovering, while LME zinc inventory has recovered from a low level but remains relatively tight. The LME 0 - 3 spread is in a slight contango state, and the strong LME zinc price boosts the domestic market [6]. - **Outlook**: In February 2026, geopolitical changes will affect the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Supply - demand mismatches around the Spring Festival and capital flows during the holiday may lead to a temporary cooling of the market. However, the downside space is expected to be limited. Buy - hedgers can consider the opportunity to buy on dips. The market is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton, and after a full correction, a long - biased strategy on dips can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory Global Macro and Zinc Market - **Long - term Zinc Price Trends**: After the subprime mortgage crisis, factors such as global liquidity floods, supply - side reforms, the Fed's QE, the European energy crisis, the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Fed's tightening cycle, and the current Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical disturbances have all affected zinc prices [10]. - **Weakening US Dollar Trend**: In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut rates twice. Concerns about policy continuity and independence, political risks, global capital re - balancing, and the strengthening of external currencies all contribute to a weakening US dollar [12]. - **Manufacturing Recovery**: Zinc prices are highly correlated with global manufacturing sentiment. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the recovery of manufacturing data support non - ferrous metals. However, the strong performance of the sector has exceeded the manufacturing recovery rhythm, and there is a divergence between strong expectations and weak reality [16]. - **US Stagflation Expectations**: The US employment market growth is slowing, inflation is volatile, and geopolitical situations are causing oil price fluctuations [19]. - **Domestic Policy Support**: China will maintain a loose fiscal and moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There will be continued optimization and upgrading in consumer goods and large - scale equipment renewal, and infrastructure construction related to technology development will also continue [24]. Zinc Supply Analysis - **Overseas Zinc Mine Production**: In Q3 2025, the total output of tracked mines decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter by 0.9% but increased year - on - year by 9.69%. From January to September 2025, it increased year - on - year by 11.35%, with an incremental contribution of about 400,000 tons. Mines like Antamina, Kipushi, Tara, and Gamsberg are the main sources of incremental production in 2025 [31]. - **Global Zinc Mine Output**: In 2025, global zinc mine supply rebounded after three years of decline. In 2026, there is still room for growth, but overseas growth may slow down while China's growth may emerge. The copper/zinc ratio may lead to an adjustment in mine - end increments [37]. - **Domestic Zinc Mine Production**: In 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production increased by about 70,000 tons year - on - year. In 2026, projects like Huoshaoyun and Zhugongtang may bring an increase of 100,000 - 200,000 tons and 50,000 - 80,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports**: In 2025, zinc concentrate imports reached 5,325,542.08 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.62% [44]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production**: In 2025, refined zinc production recovered to some extent, but the improvement from the mine end to zinc ingot production was affected by overseas profit factors [47]. - **Processing Fees**: In January 2026, domestic and imported processing fees weakened seasonally, indicating a strong mine end [51]. - **Refined Zinc Enterprise Profits**: Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss situation, but the long - term contract price in 2026 has generally increased [55]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In 2025, refined zinc output increased with profit recovery, but it weakened at the end of the year and in early 2026, and is expected to decline during the Spring Festival [59]. - **Refined Zinc Imports and Exports**: In 2025, imports decreased by 31.78% year - on - year, and exports increased by 459.90%. In 2026, there is still a possibility of intermittent export window openings [63]. Zinc Demand Analysis - **Apparent and Actual Consumption**: In 2025, the apparent consumption of zinc ingots was mostly higher than the five - year average and slightly higher than the actual consumption, indicating an improvement in supply. However, supply decreased significantly at the end of the year [69]. - **Galvanizing Enterprises**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was weak, with limited recovery in actual consumption. There is still an expectation of capacity release, and export demand has development potential [73]. - **Zinc Die - Casting Enterprises**: The operating rate of zinc die - casting alloy enterprises was better in the first half of 2025 but weakened in the second half. There was a polarization between large and small factories [76]. - **Zinc Oxide Industry**: The operating rate of the zinc oxide industry was weak, with a significant decline from May to June and a continuous decline from October to December [80]. Zinc Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Inventories**: As of the end of January 2026, LME zinc inventory was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.13%, and SHFE zinc inventory was 65,154 tons, a year - on - year increase of 199.13%. Both overseas and domestic inventories are at relatively low historical levels [86]. - **Social Inventories**: As of January 2026, social inventories have recovered from a low level and are at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [89]. Zinc Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Refined Zinc**: In 2025, global refined zinc supply is expected to be slightly in surplus, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to expand to 290,000 tons [94]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc**: In 2025, domestic refined zinc turned to a slight surplus. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase further, and there may be intermittent export opportunities, maintaining a surplus pattern [97]. Zinc Technical Analysis - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, zinc has been in an upward channel. In January 2026, it accelerated its rise but faced adjustment pressure at the end of the month. After breaking through last year's high, the upper - resistance level has expanded above 27,000 yuan. A long - biased strategy on dips can be considered [102]. Arbitrage Analysis - **Domestic - Overseas and Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The zinc Shanghai - London ratio is highly correlated with the RMB - US dollar exchange rate. The import window for zinc has opened intermittently, and there may be opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage and export. The copper - zinc ratio reached a new high at the end of 2025, but there may be room for the ratio to return in 2026 [109]. Zinc Option Market - **Option Volatility Analysis**: In 2025, the historical and implied volatilities of Shanghai zinc options showed a trend of rising and then falling. Different option strategies can be adopted according to different volatility levels [113]. Summary: Zinc Market Outlook and Operational Suggestions - In February 2026, zinc is expected to maintain high volatility. Supply - demand mismatches, macro and mine - end changes may intensify fluctuations. The market is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton. Option strategies such as selling out - of - the - money calls during the consolidation period and buying zinc and selling copper for arbitrage can be considered. For the industrial side, buy - hedging can be considered at low levels after a full correction, and sell - hedging opportunities currently exist [121].

在美伊持续紧张局势支撑下，油价仍维持在近六个月高位附近。WTI原油在65美元上下宽幅震荡，最终 收涨0.35%，报65.78美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨0.28%，报69.61美元/桶。 川普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需施压，预期沃什将推动 降息；哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得确认。货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次、 每次25个基点。 2月2日 资讯分享 上周五，现货黄金自欧盘时段开启跌势，盘中一度暴跌12%至4680美元一线，创1983年以来最大单日跌 幅，单日振幅近770美元，且抹去本周所有涨幅，最终收跌9.19%，报4883.45美元/盎司，周线收跌 2.2%；现货白银一度重挫35%至73美元一线，创下有记录以来最大单日跌幅，最终收跌26.37%，报 85.01美元/盎司，周线大跌超17%。现货铂金、钯金单日收跌超17%。周一，黄金低开90美元，白银低 开4.5%。 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量。 美参院通过为大部分部门提供资金的支出法案，美国进入技术性、部分"停摆"状态；美众院议长称有信 心在周二前结束部分停摆。 克宫：川普亲 ...

上周将被铭记为贵金属历史上最极端的时期之一：黄金首次突破5000美元大关，并在周四早盘一路飙升至5598美元的盘中高点。然而，随后市场急 转直下。到上周五，黄金价格暴一度跌至4700美元以下，数小时内抹去了数周以来的涨幅。 本周一，这一大幅波动仍在继续：现货黄金早间一度向下跌破4700美元，日内下跌3.3%，尽管随后一度快速拉升，将日内跌幅收窄至1% 左右，但截至发稿跌幅又再度扩大至4.3%。 现货白银价格更加戏剧性：早间一度暴跌超10%至75美元/盎司以下，随后又快速日内转涨至87美元上方，日内转涨超3%。但截至发稿， 白银再度跳水，日内下跌超4%。 恐慌情绪同样蔓延至股市。本周一，A股市场上，招金黄金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、西部黄金、山东黄金等十余股竞 价跌停。港股市场上，黄金股同样跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国黄金国际跌超7%。 金银价格的大涨大跌意味着多空力量争夺仍然激烈。那么后续贵金属价格将如何走？对于华尔街分析师们来说，前路同样迷雾笼罩。那么， 后续投资者需要关注什么？ 一、凯文·沃什的听证会证词 首先需要关注的第一个重点，就是特朗普提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什的正式表态。 上周五， ...

格隆汇2月2日｜由于市场对美联储降息的预期升温，新加坡元对美元在亚洲交易时段小幅走强。三菱日 联银行分析师高级外汇分析师Michael Wan在报告中表示，获特朗普总统提名为下任美联储主席的凯文· 沃什一直对降息持支持态度。该分析师指出，沃什认为由于人工智能带来的美国生产力激增，降息并不 会引发过度的通货膨胀。三菱日联银行继续看好亚洲电子产品出口国的货币。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with a growth forecast of 2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, indicating a potential upward revision compared to market consensus [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market consensus may underestimate the growth potential of the U.S. economy, with actual conditions possibly presenting upward risks [1][4]. - It emphasizes that the negative impact of tariffs is expected to diminish, with effective tariff rates slightly decreasing, and anticipates that the White House will not significantly raise tariffs ahead of the midterm elections [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to delay interest rate cuts until June, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, bringing the final rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - The report predicts a quarterly growth of 2.5% in Q4 2026 and an annual growth of 2.9%, which is approximately 0.5 percentage points higher than market consensus [2]. - The growth outlook for 2025 is characterized as a "tariff drag" year, while 2026 is expected to be a "tax cut stimulus" year [2]. Labor Market Trends - Current job creation is insufficient, with a need for approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs monthly to stabilize the labor market [1][8]. - Despite discussions of layoffs and AI deployment, initial unemployment claims remain low, indicating that while risks exist, they do not warrant excessive concern [9]. Inflation and Consumer Spending - The report anticipates that core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.1% by December, with core CPI expected to reach 2% [3][10]. - Consumer spending is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 2%, supported by real wage growth and tax cuts [10].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（1月30日）大幅收跌，开盘价5182.79美元/盎司，最高价5450.97美元/盎司，最低价4942.80美元/ 盎司，收盘价5050.55美元/盎司。 消息面： 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，并称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压，沃什有望获民主 党人支持，并预期其将推动降息。 白宫经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫有信心沃什提名会迅速获得确认。 美联储博斯蒂克：美联储现在无需降息，我们应该在利率问题上更加耐心；沃勒：当前利率区间为 3.50%-3.75%，而中性利率可能在3%左右；穆萨莱姆：进一步降息并不可取，当前政策已属中性，经济无需刺 激。 美国众议院议长约翰逊周日在接受NBC新闻《与媒体见面》节目采访时表示，他认为自己已经获得了共和党的 支持票，能够确保在周二之前结束部分政府机构的停摆状态。"我相信我们至少能在周二之前完成这项工作。 我们面临的一个实际问题是如何将所有人召集到镇上。"他说道。此前一场暴风雪影响了美国东南部的交通， 导致交通问题持续存在。 地缘局势： 当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国正在与古巴进行对话，并称"我认为我们将与古巴达成一项协 议"。特 ...