si TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融评论 244 | | 央行连续第12个月 财政部:用好用足 更加积极的财政政策 Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 2025年11日10日 .. Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 国家外汇管理局数据显示，截至10月末中国官方黄金储备为7409万盎司，较上月末增加3万盎司，增幅降至2024年11月恢复增持 以来的最低水平。目前，中国央行已连续12个月增持黄金。 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 央行连续第12个月增持黄金 重大会议 MEETINGS ◎ 何立峰："十五五"规划建议为香港描绘了更加美好的未来 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 证监会、财政部联合发布《 证券结算风险基金管理办法》 重大事件 EVENTS ◎ 财政部：用好用足更加积极的财政政策 ◎ 财政部在香港成功发行美元主权债券 重要数字 DATA ◎ 10月CPl同比转涨 PPI环比年内首次上涨 ◎ 2025年10日未、我国外汇储备和模为3.34.33亿美元 热点 聚焦 央行连续第12个月增持黄金 01 《清华金融评论》观察 我国央行连续 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial for American power, with military strength serving to uphold this monetary hegemony [1][3]. - The high costs associated with maintaining the dollar's status are highlighted, including over a trillion dollars in military spending and extensive military bases worldwide [3]. - The article discusses China's attempts at internationalizing the renminbi, noting the challenges faced and the strategic pivot towards initiatives like the Belt and Road and currency swaps to enhance industrial tax collection [3][5]. Group 2 - The concept of currency swaps is presented as a method to disrupt the dollar's dominance, allowing countries to manage their debts more effectively without resorting to asset liquidation [5][7]. - The issuance of €4 billion in sovereign bonds in Luxembourg is framed as a signal to other nations that they can seek debt restructuring with China, while also indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar due to excessive issuance [7]. - The article suggests that China's control over rare earth resources and recent restrictions on silver exports serve as leverage against US dominance in high-end manufacturing, indicating a strategic shift towards securing commodity transactions in renminbi [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The report indicates that after reaching a new high close to $4,400, gold prices have experienced a pullback, suggesting a short-term adjustment while maintaining a long-term bullish trend [6][10]. - Following the September FOMC meeting, the market's expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2026 did not significantly increase, which has led to a weakening in gold's pricing dynamics [9][14]. - The report highlights that the recent rise in gold prices is driven by multiple risk events, including the potential U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions, but warns of the risk of profit-taking as these factors are priced in [28][33]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing significant tightness, with the 1-month leasing rate for silver soaring to nearly 40%, indicating a historically high demand for physical silver [75][79]. - There is a notable discrepancy in pricing between London and New York silver markets, with the London silver showing a significant premium over New York, marking a historical first for this inversion [79][80]. - The report suggests that despite the current tightness in the silver market, the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain unresolved, indicating potential for upward price elasticity in the future [70][72]. Group 3: Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook - The report projects a more optimistic economic outlook from the Federal Reserve, with upward revisions to GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, alongside a downward adjustment in unemployment rates for the same period [10][11]. - It notes that the Federal Reserve's recent decisions indicate a cautious approach to monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts being moderated, particularly in the context of upcoming leadership changes within the Fed [50][53]. - The analysis emphasizes that the current economic environment is characterized by a mix of improving forward-looking indicators and weakening lagging indicators, suggesting a complex macroeconomic landscape [46][41]. Group 4: Long-term Gold Pricing Trends - Historical analysis indicates that the current gold price increase may have surpassed the halfway mark of its potential upward trajectory, with projections suggesting a target range of $5,293 to $5,838 per ounce when adjusted for inflation [66][67]. - The report highlights that the current gold price increase is less steep compared to historical averages, suggesting that the market may still have room for growth [66][67]. - It also discusses the ongoing central bank gold purchases, particularly in emerging markets, which could provide additional support for gold prices in the long term [57][58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in domestic gold ETF holdings, with a year-on-year growth of 164.03% in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 79.015 tons [1] - As of September 2025, China's gold reserves amounted to 2303.52 tons, with the central bank increasing its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing gold's proportion in foreign exchange reserves [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is expected to gain international influence, potentially driving gold prices upward amid ongoing de-dollarization and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] Group 2 - Despite recent price increases leading to a 2-3 month consolidation period for precious metals, the long-term de-dollarization process remains intact, and gold's strategic allocation value is still prominent [2] - The gold stock ETF fund has shown a strong performance, with a 36.00% increase in net value over the past six months and a 21.91% rise over the last three months [4][5] - The gold stock ETF fund has a Sharpe ratio of 1.74, ranking in the top 33% of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [6] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 67.97% of the index, with Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold being the most significant contributors [6][7] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, reflecting its cost structure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have shown significant increases, reaching new highs since April 2025, indicating a strengthening trend in the yuan against a basket of currencies [1][5]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS yuan exchange rate index is reported at 97.96, up 0.35% week-on-week, marking a new high since April 2025 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stands at 104.19, with a weekly increase of 0.32%, also a new high since April 2025 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index is at 92.34, reflecting a weekly rise of 0.08%, reaching a new high since April 2025 [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, ultimately declining by 0.18% to close at 99.54 points for the week [5]. - The onshore yuan against the US dollar closed at 7.1210, with a weekly increase of 10 basis points, while the offshore yuan closed at 7.1252, down 28 basis points [5]. - The yuan's central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 7.0836, up 31 basis points for the week [5]. Internal Factors - The yuan's central parity rate has reached a yearly high, with a strong performance against a basket of currencies, supporting the CFETS yuan exchange rate index near 98 [5]. - The increase in net settlement of foreign exchange is expected to continue, driven by policy guidance, contributing to the long-term appreciation of the yuan [5]. Economic Outlook - Upcoming economic data releases for October are anticipated to provide further insights into the yuan's performance [6]. - Analysts predict that 2025 may mark the beginning of a new appreciation cycle for the yuan, with expectations of the yuan potentially breaking the 7.0 mark against the US dollar by 2026 [6]. - The diversification of export structures and the internationalization of the yuan are expected to reduce the exchange rate risk associated with the US dollar [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) unexpectedly suspended all non-USD denominated metal options, including those in RMB, without prior notice or explanation, indicating a targeted approach towards the RMB market [1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the main aluminum and copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the upper limit, while LME electronic trading saw a significant drop, with the price difference reaching $412 per ton, marking a historic occurrence in 38 years [3] - Traders noted that USD-denominated metals have become isolated, while RMB-denominated metals are gaining popularity, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] China's Position in Metal Trade - China contributes 70% of global rare earth oxides and 55% of electrolytic aluminum, with nearly half of copper consumption growth driven by China [3] - Major Middle Eastern steel manufacturers plan to reference Shanghai futures prices and settle long-term metal orders in RMB starting from Q4 2025, with Dubai also set to launch RMB-denominated metal futures in 2026 [3] Adoption of RMB in Global Trade - Major mining companies like BHP and Vale have begun accepting RMB for iron ore transactions, driven by the convenience and cost-effectiveness of using RMB in trade with China [5] - The cross-border RMB payment system has expanded to 32 countries, with bilateral currency swap agreements exceeding 4.5 trillion RMB, and RMB cross-border payment amounts reaching 35 trillion RMB in the first half of the year, a 14% year-on-year increase [5] LME's Weakness and Market Dynamics - LME's actions reveal its weaknesses, as actual trading has shifted to other markets, with contracts still being signed and settled despite the suspension [7] - The RMB's rise is attributed to its alignment with production, demand, and convenience, rather than an aggressive pursuit of dominance [7] Future Trends - The trend of using RMB for metal trade settlements is expected to grow, with more countries and companies likely to follow suit, indicating potential challenges for LME's traditional rules [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that with the volatility of CBOE gold ETFs and the implied volatility of gold options returning to around 20%, gold prices are expected to stabilize. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to weakened interest rate cut expectations and a stronger dollar. In the medium term, the total U.S. national debt may exceed $40 trillion, and overseas inflation is likely to rise, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, potentially breaking through $4,500 per ounce and aiming for $5,000 per ounce. The report suggests focusing on leading global copper and gold mining companies, particularly Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which is expected to see significant growth in its copper segment by 2026 [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of October, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, adding 30,000 ounces to reach 74.09 million ounces. The value of gold assets, including gold deposits and swaps, is approximately $297.21 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of $13.92 billion [1]. - The monthly increase in gold reserves has slowed due to high gold prices, with October's addition being the smallest this year at 30,000 ounces, down from 40,000 ounces in September. However, the continuous increase indicates the importance of raising gold's proportion in foreign exchange reserves for the central bank [2]. Group 2: Gold's Proportion in Foreign Reserves - Gold now accounts for approximately 8.89% of the People's Bank of China's foreign exchange reserves, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and a significant rise of 2.92 percentage points from the end of 2024. Despite this increase, China's gold reserve proportion remains lower than that of major countries, such as India's 15.17% and Thailand's 10.56%, indicating room for growth [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves aligns with the ongoing de-dollarization and the internationalization of the renminbi. The establishment of gold delivery warehouses in Saudi Arabia and designated warehouses in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the international influence of the renminbi through gold. The medium-term outlook for gold prices is supported by the continued deterioration of the dollar's credit and its weakening status as a universal currency in global metals [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the industry, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to market benchmarks [8][12]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with a total of 7.409 million ounces as of October, reflecting a significant increase in value to $297.209 billion, up by $13.918 billion from the previous month [8]. - The proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves has risen to 8.89%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating potential for further growth compared to other major countries [8]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the internationalization of the Renminbi is expected to drive gold prices upward, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce in the medium term [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the tightening supply expectations in the non-ferrous and steel sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these segments [7]. Market Dynamics - The recent public consultation on the new "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Measures" indicates that supply-side reforms may be imminent, which could positively impact the market [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading global copper and gold mining companies, particularly Zijin Mining (601899), which is expected to see significant growth in copper production in 2026 [8].

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) has reached a new level, becoming the largest settlement currency for China's foreign receipts and payments, the second largest trade financing currency globally, and the third largest payment currency [1][2] Group 1: RMB Usage and Growth - The RMB cross-border payment amount reached 35 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with goods trade accounting for 6.4 trillion yuan, representing 28% of total cross-border payments [1] - The network effect of RMB international usage is gradually becoming evident due to improved policy frameworks and high-level trade investment facilitation trials [1] Group 2: Offshore RMB Market Development - The offshore RMB market is developing healthily, with over 10 trillion yuan of RMB financial assets held by foreign entities and more than 80 countries including RMB in their foreign exchange reserves [2] - Major offshore markets have RMB deposits totaling 1.6 trillion yuan, and the stock of offshore RMB bonds and Panda bonds issued by foreign institutions is approximately 2 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To better serve the real economy, there is a need to optimize cross-border trade and investment RMB settlement policies and enhance the financial service capabilities of commercial banks [3] - Continued improvement of RMB financing support policies and tools is essential, along with encouraging more eligible foreign institutions to issue Panda bonds in China [3] Group 4: Support for Offshore RMB Market - There is a focus on enhancing cross-border RMB liquidity supply arrangements and optimizing the layout of clearing banks to support the development of the offshore RMB market [4] - Strengthening the position of Hong Kong as an international financial center and offshore RMB business hub is a priority [4]

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,433.43 billion by the end of October 2025, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from September and the highest level since December 2015 [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves to 7.409 million ounces by the end of October, adding 30,000 ounces, continuing a trend of gold accumulation for 12 consecutive months [2][4] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Since November last year, the PBOC has been in a "gold buying mode," with a notable increase of 330,000 ounces in December 2024, followed by a gradual slowdown in purchases, indicating a long-term strategic vision [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, China, Poland, and Turkey were the top three central bank gold buyers, collectively accounting for over 50% of global purchases, reflecting a broader trend of central banks increasing gold holdings [6] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Central banks are increasing gold reserves to optimize foreign exchange reserve structures, as gold is a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that is less affected by unilateral sanctions and has different price dynamics compared to other currencies [8] - The accumulation of gold is also seen as a crucial part of the internationalization strategy of the Renminbi, enhancing its role in the global monetary system and boosting international confidence in the currency [8] Group 3: Market Context - As of October 2025, international gold prices reached a historical high of $4,294 per ounce, with a monthly increase of 4.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of price rises [10] - Historical trends indicate that central bank gold purchases do not guarantee continuous price increases, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when gold prices fell despite increased purchases [10] Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing accumulation of gold by the PBOC symbolizes not only the resilience of the Chinese economy but also reflects significant changes in the international financial landscape, as the era of dollar dominance is gradually shifting [12]