Core Viewpoint - The carbon credit system under the Paris Agreement facilitates the cross-border flow of climate funds, achieving carbon reduction goals at lower costs and higher efficiency [1][11]. Development of China's Carbon Market - China's carbon market has evolved from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to a comprehensive system that includes mandatory and voluntary trading markets, ensuring a healthy and orderly operation [4][5]. - The voluntary carbon market has experienced fluctuations, with significant developments starting from 2012, including the establishment of the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) program [4][5]. - The national carbon market has seen a significant expansion, with the launch of the national power quota market in 2021 and the voluntary emission reduction trading system in 2023 [5][6]. Market Performance and Mechanisms - In 2024, the national carbon market's trading volume reached 189 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [6][7]. - The trading price in the carbon market has shown a steady increase, with the closing price in the fourth quarter stabilizing between 97 yuan/ton and 106 yuan/ton [7]. - The market's trading activity has significantly increased, with a turnover rate of 3.5% in 2024, compared to approximately 2.0% in previous years [6][7]. Policy Recommendations for Market Development - To enhance market vitality, it is essential to diversify trading products, participants, and methods, encouraging participation from financial institutions and individual investors [9][18]. - Implementing a paid quota usage mechanism, similar to the EU carbon market, is recommended to internalize costs and improve price discovery [9][18]. - Strengthening environmental information disclosure and building a robust integrity system are crucial for ensuring data quality and market credibility [10][18]. International Cooperation and Market Expansion - Attracting participation from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative can enhance the quality and openness of China's carbon market, promoting international carbon asset transactions settled in yuan [1][11]. - Active participation in international rule-making is necessary to establish a legal, international, and modern carbon market, increasing its global attractiveness and influence [1][11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the dollar system due to the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the weaponization of the dollar, and significant changes in the global economic landscape [1][2][8] - The Milan Report proposes the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" as a strategy for the U.S. to reshape the global economic order through dollar depreciation, debt restructuring, and trade confrontation [2][4] - The dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency is linked to U.S. financial control, which is maintained through military alliances and economic strategies [3][6] Group 2 - The dollar's financial control manifests in three key areas: international pricing power, financial sanctions, and crisis transfer [4][5] - The U.S. has leveraged its financial control to impose sanctions, as seen in the Ukraine crisis, which has raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets and accelerated the process of "de-dollarization" [10][11] - The "Triffin Dilemma" poses a structural challenge to the dollar system, where the need for liquidity through U.S. deficits undermines the dollar's credibility [7][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the impact of the dollar's hegemony on global financial stability, emphasizing that the current U.S. policies may exacerbate internal contradictions within the dollar system [8][9] - The spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to global financial cycles, with significant repercussions for emerging markets [9] - The weaponization of the dollar has contributed to the fragmentation of the global financial system, prompting countries to seek alternative payment mechanisms [10][11] Group 4 - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of "debt monetization" could undermine global financial stability, as proposed in the Milan Report [12][13] - The potential implementation of long-term zero-coupon bonds could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global markets [12][13] - The need for a diversified international monetary system is emphasized, with recommendations for enhancing the use of the renminbi in global trade [13][14] Group 5 - The article advocates for the construction of a new international monetary order based on the concept of a "community of shared future for mankind," promoting cooperation among countries [16] - It highlights the importance of regional financial cooperation and the establishment of a multilateral currency settlement system to reduce reliance on third-party currencies [16] - The development of a digital currency payment system is seen as a crucial step towards reforming the international payment system and enhancing the renminbi's role [15][16]

金价像脱缰的野马，2024年初还在2050美元晃悠，到了2025年直接飙到3500美元，涨了七成多。 而美元却像漏气的皮球，购买力直线崩盘，有人甚至喊它要贬值90%。 人民币可不甘示弱，带着黄金筹码在国际舞台上大杀四方，结算量猛涨，中东土豪都开始用人民币买金。 美元的霸主地位晃得厉害，人民币国际化势头猛得像要追平它。 这场货币大战，到底谁能笑到最后？ 文案：凤梨 编辑：凤梨 国际金市最近可以说是十分热闹，买盘一波接一波，伦敦金交所一天能涌入30亿美金的订单。 亚洲的央行们买的最积极，中国、印度、土耳其，一个比一个出手狠，2025年一季度，全球央行买的黄金占了全年需求的四分之一。 这可不是投机炒作，黄金这东西不生利息，也不像股票能分红，但它有个真本事——能扛住货币贬值的风险。 回想1971年，美元跟黄金彻底分手，布雷顿森林体系崩了。 那会金价才35美元，如今3500美元，美元的购买力硬生生缩水了99%，这数字听着吓人，但市场反应更直接。 数据显示：2025年，美元指数跌到98，三年最低，美国国债日子也不好过，全球抛售潮来了，10年期美债的实际利率滑到-1.3%。 华尔街嘴上不认输，可连中国的保险资金都开始买黄金 ...

随着美国总统特朗普加大对美联储主席鲍威尔的攻击力度，美国的资本市场正在进入一个"至暗时刻"。4月21日，美国遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 美国股市三大股指的跌幅均超过2%，其中科技"七巨头"的大幅下挫，对纳斯达克指数产生了巨大影响。标普500指数收盘时，更是较2月19日创下的历史收 盘高点，下挫了16%。 面对金融市场的惨淡，美国民众把气撒到了特朗普的头上。人们普遍认为，这场风暴的导火索，正是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的解雇威胁。特朗普声 称"鲍威尔越早走人越好"，并要求美联储立即降息以挽救经济。 特朗普多次公开施压降息，甚至研究解雇鲍威尔的合法路径。尽管法律学者普遍认为，依据1935年《联邦储备法》，总统无权因政策分歧罢免美联储主席， 但市场担忧特朗普政府另辟蹊径，通过扩大总统权力，摧毁美联储的独立性基石。 回顾近段时间特朗普的举动，我们可以发现，特朗普已经开始对鲍威尔"逼宫"。4月15日，白宫文件泄露称，特朗普政府正在研究解雇鲍威尔法律路径； 在这之后，特朗普公然宣称"美联储是经济杀手"，并在"真实社交"平台上发帖要求立刻降息，否则解雇鲍威尔。 这场逼宫大戏背后，是特朗普为挽救经济恶化形势的疯狂赌博。美国3月CPI ...

■赵忠秀 日前召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 当前，基于美国最新关税措施的实施，全球贸易紧张局势已显著升级，关税战和贸易战不断升级，严重损害以规则为基础的多边贸易体制和国际经贸秩 序，对全球贸易和产业链、供应链稳定造成了严重扰动，导致国际经贸秩序碎片化加剧。在此背景下，全球贸易增长动能明显不足，贸易不确定性大幅上 升。全球经济面临贸易流动扭曲、供应链梗阻、全球产业链碎片化等重大挑战。加征关税将加剧贸易紧张局势，同时，关税冲击压缩了贸易额，严重削弱 消费者、企业和投资者的信心，推高了市场波动率，对全球经济发展前景造成不利影响。经过多年的实践和发展，中国已经积累了丰富的应对关税冲击的 经验和能力，可以有效将贸易战带来的负面影响降至最低。中国作为全球第二大经济体和最大货物贸易出口国，肩负着维护全球贸易稳定以及承担起稳定 全球经济的重大责任，完全能够以更加主动的战略姿态，统筹国内国际两个大局，积极应对经济全球化分裂与贸易体系受损的风险。 关税博弈冲 ...

【主编观市】 在特朗普关税战"认怂"之下，港股上周也同步反弹。不过，市场观望情绪依旧浓厚，因为变数太多。单 边的嘴炮并没有解决根本性问题。 上周的重磅会议也提前召开，但预期不算强，继续以稳为主，以不变应万变。短期强刺激难以看到。 本周持续关注美国方面动态，美股"七巨头"中的苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta本周都将披露财报，关注 业绩及供应链情况。美欧一季度GDP将公布、美国4月非农就业报告，重点看数据出台是否引发衰退的 担忧。 本周六晚间伯克希尔·哈撒韦将公布一季度财报并举行年度股东会。由于巴菲特年事已高，今年的问答 环节会缩短一些，将在奥马哈当地时间早上8点至下午1点间举行。投资重点观察其现金变动情况及对后 市展望。 接下来是五一假期，市场最后一天或对五月行情进行定调。 当前看，科技和刺激内需或成为主要方向。科技线：高层举行集体学习，主题聚焦人工智能(AI)。 Manus母公司海外融资超5亿美元，聚焦中东、日本等海外市场开拓。天津市正研究推出"算力券"政 策，用于支持企业购买智算或超算服务。预计AI智能体、算力等会有刺激。 消费线：预计系列刺激内需的政策红包陆续会发布。商务部等6部门：下调离境退税起退点，优化离 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-04-25 《【粤开宏观】中国 31 省份对美进出口的 基本格局与特征》2025-04-24 《【粤开宏观】财政如何应对关税战？》 2025-04-24 《【粤开宏观】中国 31 省份进出口全景图 （2024）：区域格局、商品结构与贸易方式》 2025-04-22 《【粤开宏观】"双标"的美国产业政策： 类型、动因、效果及思考》2025-04-15 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】博弈视角看"关税战"： 特朗普的意图与各经济体的不同反应 摘要 特朗普于第二届任期之初，向全球发起"关税战"，将导致国际经贸体系发生 剧烈调整。全球经济处于高度不确定的状态，严重影响全球和 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of the trade war is the economic imbalance between the US and China, with the US having a trade deficit and China relying heavily on exports [1][2] - The US's trade deficit amounts to approximately $1 trillion annually, while China requires a net export of nearly $1 trillion to absorb its production capacity [1][4] - The trade war is a global issue, affecting all countries, and is driven by a surplus in supply rather than demand [5][6] Group 2 - China needs to shift its economic focus towards high-tech industries, strong domestic demand, and trade balance to become a significant global economic power [4][6] - A proposed strategy for China is to announce a plan to reduce its trade surplus to zero within five years, which could stabilize international market expectations and attract trade partners [5][6][7] - This strategy could enhance China's geopolitical influence by presenting it as a cooperative leader in contrast to the US's aggressive tactics [7]

"今年的广交会更加火爆了！"一位参展商如是感叹道。 广交会是中国对外贸易的重要平台，也是外籍客商大规模来穗的重要时间节点。当前，美国关税风暴席 卷全球，而正在举办的第137届广交会不仅未受其影响，反而愈加昌盛，目前已吸引了近17万名境外采 购商、超3万家全球展商预约参展，再度成为全球经贸焦点。 为服务好境外采购商、全球展商，广东金融监管部门、金融机构组成合力，进一步优化产品和服务，为 稳外贸和高水平对外开放注入金融动能。 便利海外客商金融需求 广交会期间，外籍人士密集来华，并衍生了大量金融需求，诸如换汇、支付等。 第一财经从外汇局广东省分局获悉，该局采取多项举措确保满足外籍客商入境第一站的兑换需求。 包括编制《外籍来穗人员兑换服务指南》，标注广州兑换设施地址和联系方式，联合中国对外贸易中心 以邮件形式发送至每一位参展客商，并通过机场到达区的显示屏、公众号等多途径多方式进行宣传，扩 大辐射面和影响面。 同时，支持在白云机场到达厅新设兑换特许机构网点，无缝衔接广交会期间来穗外商货币兑换需求。 数据显示，4月13日至19日，在广州白云机场办理结汇的外籍人士6131人，结汇金额1290万元，较去年 广交会同期分别大幅 ...