Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong expectations but weak reality, and attention should be paid to path changes [1] - In the short - term, the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly, and the futures price of the LH2509 contract will be in the range of 13000 - 14500 yuan/ton, with the 2026 contract entering the industrial profit - locking logic stage [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 14.18 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1628 yuan/head. The supply side shows a slight increase from large - scale farms and some reluctance to sell from smallholders. The demand side remains at a low level and is suppressed by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.68KG, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21% [2] - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices fluctuate significantly. The highest price of the LH2509 contract is 15150 yuan/ton, the lowest is 14160 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 14385 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 205 yuan/ton [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a greater impact on prices. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the release of social inventory will increase, and the influence of large - scale farms will decline. In August, the contradictions will start to be released. The supply side has relatively high inventory accumulation, and the demand side is suppressed by high temperatures. The policy of purchases for storage may provide support [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has been affected by strong macro - sentiment this week. However, as it approaches the position - limit period, it will gradually return to the industrial logic. The far - month 2026 contract will enter the industrial profit - locking logic stage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 monthly spread is 0 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 124.68KG. In May, pork production was 549.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, reconstructing the original oversupply logic, and significantly increasing the valuation of each contract on the futures market, especially for the far - end contracts [12][14] - For near - end contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight reduction to relieve pressure in advance and considering the possibility of active weight gain due to a large fat - standard price difference, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter decreases, and the monthly spread may move towards a positive spread structure [12][14] - For far - end contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for now, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [12][14] - The industrial structure is being reconstructed, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases, and more attention should be paid to monthly spread opportunities [12][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, the spot pig price continued to decline. Due to enterprises reducing weight, the slaughter volume remained high, the weight mainly decreased, the demand was average, and the price trend was weak. The fat - standard price difference decreased month - on - month but was higher year - on - year. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.26 yuan to 14.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.16 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong increased by 0.08 yuan to 15.58 yuan/kg. Affected by policies, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, but the supply may narrow near the end of the month. With the decline in pig prices, low prices may attract second - round fattening. It is expected that the pig price will first decline and then slightly increase next week [12][23] - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. Since last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, which may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the current expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure. In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [12] - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [12][60] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation for now. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and the core driving logic including policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - standard price difference [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price continued to decline last week, with different price changes in different regions. It is expected to first decline and then slightly increase next week. Although the current trend is weak, there is still an expectation of a price increase in August [23][26] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [26] - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [28] - **Prices of Back - up and Culled Sows**: Relevant price and ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [30] 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. The policy - forced capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the implementation of policies in the next few months needs attention [35] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: Relevant inventory and slaughter volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [37] - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant culling and sales volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [40] - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure [44] - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs gradually increases as the weight increases [47] - **Trading and Average Carcass Weight**: In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [51] - **Import and Pig Feed Ratio**: Relevant import volume and feed ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [53] - **Second - Round Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant ratio and utilization rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [55] 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [60] - **Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin**: Relevant rate and margin trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [62] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant spread and price - volume relationship trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [64] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant spread and sales rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [66] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost bottomed out and then slightly rebounded, remaining relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of low costs, although the pig price is weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [71] 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [76]

Core Viewpoint - The pig futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 14,320.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.55% [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Conditions - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes strict implementation of capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and reduction of their inventory [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission reports that the national pig market price is 14.96 yuan/kg, down 0.53% from the previous period [2] - As of July 22, the operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 26.48%, an increase of 0.37% week-on-week, while the frozen meat warehouse capacity utilization is 17.44%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures notes that demand is weak, with terminal consumption remaining sluggish and downstream resistance to high pig prices. The supply pressure is evident as the breeding sector accelerates sales [3] - Guoyuan Futures indicates that the pig industry is in a capacity release phase while terminal consumption is in a low season. However, there is some expectation of demand recovery, providing support for short-term prices [3] - Both institutions suggest that while short-term market sentiment is bullish due to seasonal consumption expectations and capacity control policies, medium-term supply pressures remain significant due to high inventory levels [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long term, pig supply will increase slightly, but the anti - involution initiative and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices, especially for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, recovered, and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 912 lots to 167,061 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, the utilization rate of pigsties reached a high level, and secondary fattening was mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 22, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, a decrease of 15,000 heads from the previous day and the same as a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. Currently, the slaughter progress of farmers has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first half of the month, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high, with more secondary - fattened pigs yet to be slaughtered [9]. 2. Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 126 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 17 was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [21]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,352 lots to 167,973 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 14.40 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased in the early stage. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 21, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,100 heads, a decrease of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,500 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. Currently, the slaughter progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first ten days, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pens for secondary fattening pigs is relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Outlook - In late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms will recover. In order to meet the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises may continue to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [10]. - In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase. However, the domestic anti-involution initiative and the strengthening of regional environmental protection policies are beneficial to the long-term performance of pig prices, especially the far-month contracts are affected by factors such as the expected reduction in weight and the increase in supply being less than the increase in demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 111 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -126 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [22]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [22]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week and a month-on-month decrease of 0.16% [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (7.14 - 7.20), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side saw a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs as the market conditions were right. The demand side remained low, and the high temperature restricted the increase in demand. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG. In the futures market, the live pig futures price was also weak. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week (7.21 - 7.27), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. During the off - season, large - scale farms' adjustment of slaughter volume has a greater impact on prices, but this influence will decline in the peak season. It is expected that contradictions will be released in August. From the supply perspective, there was continuous restocking from February to May and bottom - fishing by secondary fattening in June, resulting in a low vacancy rate of pigsties and a relatively high inventory accumulation. The slaughter progress of large - scale farms was slow in July, and there is still pressure in the future. From the demand perspective, the actual demand in July was significantly weaker than in June, and the high - temperature months of July and August will suppress demand. Although the secondary fattening sales policy has tightened and there is passive freezing of pork into storage, the government's purchase and storage policy may provide support. There were still a small number of secondary fattening entries in July, and the idle space in pigsties is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the release of pressure in the peak season [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The spot price weakened continuously this week, and the slaughter digestion capacity decreased, causing a large decline in the September contract. However, there is an expectation of government purchase and storage, which may drive the spot price up at the end and beginning of the month, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The near - term policy and reality interact, and the September contract is in the position - reducing stage, with increased volatility. As the peak season for piglet purchases ends, and both the spot performance and feed data confirm future supply increases, the 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.14 - 7.20) - **Spot Market**: In Henan, the price of 20KG piglets remained unchanged at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side had a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs, while the demand side was restricted by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The influence of large - scale farms on prices will decline in the peak season. Supply pressure remains due to previous restocking, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The government's purchase and storage policy may provide support, and there were still some secondary fattening entries in July [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The September contract may rebound due to the expectation of government purchase and storage, but it is in the position - reducing stage with increased volatility. The 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was 295 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: The average weight this week was 124.91KG (unchanged from last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price showed a decline today. After the previous continuous price increase, the market supply began to recover, but the price decline space is limited. The follow - up supply pressure still exists, and it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The pig futures showed a volatile decline today. After the previous sharp increase, the market's bullish sentiment decreased, and the futures price is expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The spread between contract months is expected to be volatile [5]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg today, down 0.03 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions showed a decline [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts like LH01 rose by 40, while LH03 and LH05 declined by 25 and 5 respectively. LH07 remained unchanged, LH09 declined by 35, LH11 rose by 15 [4]. Other Prices - The price of piglets was 440 yuan, up 1 yuan from last week; the price of sows was 1628 yuan, up 7 yuan from last week [4]. - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan [4]. Market Indicators - The slaughter volume was 133,615 heads today, an increase of 1108 heads from yesterday [4]. - The spread between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan/kg [4]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread was - 250, up 35; LH9 - 1 spread was 485, down 75; LH9 - 11 spread was 630, down 50; LH11 - 1 spread was - 145, down 25 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: High - level volatile operation [6]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - spread arbitrage [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]

Report Information - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of pigs are both decreasing in the short - term. The reduced supply has boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices, but currently, the group's sales volume has recovered, leading to a slight price correction. In the medium and long - term, pig supply will continue to increase, and with the consumption off - season, pig prices may face pressure. Although the futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot, the spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the price rebound, and domestic anti - involution initiatives and strengthened environmental protection efforts support market sentiment [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,185 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,285 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,499 lots to 162,291 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 14th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 14, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 132,500 heads, a decrease of 2,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 1,700 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig sales volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. In the early part of the month, enterprises reduced supply and the average weight of pigs increased. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week [20] - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [20] - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [20] - As of the week ending July 11, the average weight of nationwide pig sales was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [20]