周一，美元指数（DXY）暴跌超过1%，一度跌破整数关口98，为2022年3月以来最低点。当天，黄金历 史上首次正式突破3400美元/盎司。 国际金价和美元指数走势对比图（2020年8月至今） 美联储独立性遭质疑 美国总统特朗普上周频繁施压美联储，以及威胁要撤职美联储主席鲍威尔，美联储的独立性正在遭到市 场的怀疑。独立的中央银行被大多数人视为市场经济的基石。企业、投资者、消费者等通过校准银行贷 款和抵押贷款等债务所依据的基准利率来引导经济。 特朗普上周五表示："如果我们有一个了解他在做什么的美联储主席，利率也会下降。"这是他在上周连 续质疑鲍威尔后的最新表态。白宫也表示，官员们正在评估他们是否可以罢免美联储主席。 但美联储官员则密集表达了对白宫干预的反对。周日，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比就警告不要限 制央行的独立性，称货币政策需要免受政治干预。 古尔斯比在一场公开活动中表示，质疑货币政策独立性将损害美联储的信誉。参议员艾米·克洛布查尔 也支持美联储的独立性，指出法律规定美联储主席只能因渎职或犯罪等"正当理由"被解职。她认为鲍威 尔的工作做得很好，并强调美联储的独立性在应对各种危机中发挥了重要作用。 事实上， ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期调整不改黄金强势逻辑。G2 大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 台，多国或流动性释放刺激经济经济。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持 | | | | 续，各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，尽管中国和欧洲刺激预期 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 较大，但是短期需警惕流动性危机。品种属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基 | | | | 本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普，美国关税政策的不确定性加剧市场恐慌和混乱，美元指数走弱，铜延续反 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 弹，短期铜背靠下方均线，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌震荡偏弱，空单可部分逢低止盈兑现，中 | | | | 长期看，锌供 ...

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词浪花卷起） 海外资金逃离美国资产的大潮周五盘中暂时缓和。 昨夜，美股再次反弹， 标普创2023年来最佳周表现 ，纳指一周涨超7%，美债美元惨跌、黄金一再新高。发生了什么？ 密歇根大学调查的美国消费者信心进一步恶化、通胀预期飙升，美股早盘延续周四跌势。但此后的关税动向更为市场关注， 美联储可能出手的Fed Put前景暂 时提振了投资者的情绪。美股大盘止跌转涨，午盘加速反弹。 美股午盘时段，据央视新闻， 美国海关报告关税系统出现故障 ，暂未征收关税。此外，今年有决策投票权的美联储高官Collins表示，如有需要， 美联储"绝 对"准备好帮助稳定市场 。三大美股指午盘涨幅扩大到1%以上，尾盘纳指更是涨超2%。 因特朗普周三意外宣布暂缓关税当天大涨，加之周五的盘中反转， 三大美股指本周创至少一年多来最佳表现。不过，在关税及反制风暴席卷的本周，美债和美 元成为美国资产遭抛售的牺牲品。 美国10年期国债收益率本周累计上涨49.52个基点，创2001年以来最大单周涨幅。 以彭博的美债回报指数表现判断，本周，美债市场遭遇了自2019年9月回购危机以来最大周跌幅。 美元指数失去了避险地位，本周全球投 ...

全球金融市场动荡，避险需求推动黄金价格持续上涨并再创历史新高。 4月11日，国际金价再度大涨，现货黄金站上3200美元关口，再创历史新高。 截至发稿，伦敦金现涨超1.7%，报3231.09美元/盎司，COMEX黄金涨2.2%，报3247.3美元/盎司。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 3231.090 | | 昨结 | 3175.370 | 总量 | | 0 | | | +55.720 | +1.75% 开盘 | | 3175.000 | 现手 | | O | | | 最高价 | 3244.300 | 寺 | 0 | Ar | 참 | 0 | | | 最低价 | 3174.455 | 播 世 | 0 | 内 | | | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 目K | 申文 | | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 3244.300 | | | | 2.17% | 堂- 3231.4 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply from 4.0% to approximately 4.5% in two trading days, despite weakening economic fundamentals[1] - The recent sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects tightening liquidity and/or rising risk premiums rather than economic fundamentals[2] - The U.S. recession risk is increasing, leading to more interest rate cut expectations being priced into short-term Treasuries[2] Group 2: Capital Flows and Trade Policies - Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs are expected to reduce capital account surpluses, leading to capital outflows from the U.S. and selling of dollar assets[3] - The U.S. budget resolution passed in February plans to increase deficits by $2.8 trillion over the next ten years, with an average deficit rate of 5.7%[3] - The net issuance of U.S. Treasuries is expected to rise this year, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting upward pressure on Treasury yields[3] Group 3: Long-term Implications and Global Trends - The goal of being a financial and manufacturing powerhouse may be incompatible, as tariffs could distort prices and increase global inefficiencies[3] - The acceleration of global de-dollarization is anticipated, with increased demand for non-dollar safe-haven assets like gold[5] - The volatility of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to increase due to the conflicting impacts of capital flows and economic fundamentals[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's main metal production saw significant increases, with copper production at 1.07 million tons and gold production at 73 tons, reflecting growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively [4]. - The company has made substantial progress in resource exploration, with significant discoveries in various regions, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in copper and gold prices, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, which supports the company's revenue growth outlook [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 20.37%, an increase of 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.97%, up 3.92 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 projects earnings per share of 1.44 yuan and 1.75 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.57 and 10.34 [5].