惠誉：亚太地区的高度贸易开放度和对美国需求的敞口，使其容易受到直接关税风险的影响。 ...

分析师：由于关税风险，美联储可能推迟降息 金十数据5月8日讯，大华银行经济学家Alvin Liew表示，由于关税风险，美联储可能会推迟降息。美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，央行官员并不急于调整利率，因为"等待的成本相当低，"这位经济学家说。鉴于美 联储在加强对美国关税导致的通胀和失业率上升风险的警告之际，仍表示要保持耐心，大华银行继续认 为，2025年将有三次降息，各25个基点。这位经济学家说，大华银行将预期的时间表推迟到9月、10月 和12月的会议。大华银行仍然认为，2026年将有两次降息，这意味着明年联邦基金利率将降至3.25%。 ...

Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]

债券巨头PIMCO警示市场，小心特朗普。 5月8日，据媒体报道，美国债券投资巨头PIMCO的投资总监Dan Ivascyn和首席执行官Emmanuel Roman 在采访中警告： "我们很可能会陷入衰退，这种可能性是几年来最高的。" "投资者可能低估了特朗普政府恢复高关税的决心。" "相信特朗普，他相信关税。" 太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）是全球最大的投资管理公司之一，也是全球主动型固收投资领域巨 头，截至2025年3月31日，PIMCO管理资产总值达到2.03万亿美元。 据央视新闻，美国的10%普遍关税以及对汽车、钢铁和铝材等特定行业的关税措施，导致美国股市和部 分企业债受创。特朗普在一周后决定暂停对大多数贸易伙伴的关税90天，稳定了市场，标普500指数也 扭转了因该决定而引发的暴跌。 然而，Ivascyn指出，投资者误认为特朗普的关税将被完全撤销或比之前宣布的更温和： "人们仍然认为会有退出关税的途径，我们将回到一个类似于4月2日前的局面，但我们不这 么确定。" 不过，Ivascyn指出："我们认为长期关税税率将随着时间的推移下降，PIMCO将密切关注美国政府如何 根据市场变动和美联储的信号调整政策。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 股指回升。现货市场，A股三大指数走强，上证指数收盘涨1.13%收于3316.11点，创业板指涨1.97%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，计算机、通信、综合、机械设备行业领涨，仅银行行业小幅收跌。成交量回升，当日沪深两 市成交金额为1.3万亿元。海外市场，美国商务部公布数据显示，由于企业在关税实施前增加商品进口，美国3月贸 易逆差环比增长14%，扩大至创纪录的1405亿美元，高于市场预期。美联储议息会议召开前夕，号称"美联储传声 筒"的尼克·蒂米劳斯发文称，美联储正面临两难境地，并暗示美联储可能会暂缓降息。美国三大股指全线收跌，道 指跌0.95%报40829点。 基差回升。期货市场，股指期货当月合约基差回升。成交持仓方面，IF、IC、IM的成交量和持仓量同步增加。 策略 总的来看，当前美国经济数据加剧市场对经济衰退的担忧，叠加美联储可能维持不降息，美股承压。中方决定与 美方接触，关税风险边际缓和，为国内权益资产提供了阶段性友好环境，股指配置窗口显现。中小盘指数有望表 现相对强势，主要受益于企业盈利修复弹性释放、前期充分回调后的估值修复动能以及补缺需求，IM有望相对占 优。 ...

贵金属日报 2025-05-07 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 1.60 %，报 809.28 元/克，沪银涨 0.45 %，报 8275.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.99 %， 报 3389.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.24 %，报 33.30 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 99.49 ； 市场展望： 受中美贸易谈判消息影响，市场关于全球贸易及关税风险的预期有所缓和，这对于国际金价形 成短线利空因素。截至北京时间早盘 7 点，现货黄金早盘累跌 50 美元，下破 3380 美元/盎司。 昨日期货盘面以及国内黄金 ETF 的持仓表现有所分化，受到节后多头持仓回补的影响，沪金总 持仓量在节后开盘至昨日夜盘结束期间出现增加，由 41.4 万手上升至 45.1 万手，沪金主力合 约区间上涨幅度达到 3.18%。但国内黄金 ETF 的申赎净持仓量在节后表现偏弱，WIND 统计口径 下国内主要 14 个黄金 E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the apparel industry, particularly highlighting Adidas' strong performance and growth potential in the coming quarters [1][9]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a revenue of €6.153 billion in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.73%. The Greater China region showed remarkable growth with revenues of €1.029 billion, up 14.72% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company has achieved positive growth for eight consecutive quarters since the leadership change in Q1 2023, indicating strong brand momentum [1][9]. - The footwear segment led revenue growth with a 17% year-on-year increase, accounting for 61% of total revenue. Apparel and accessories also saw growth of 8% and 10%, respectively [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's proactive measures to mitigate tariff challenges, including early customs clearance and product reallocation [1][10]. Industry Data Tracking - The apparel retail sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, which is below the overall consumption growth, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales [2][12]. - The report notes a gradual improvement in terminal consumer power, with March retail sales showing a significant increase compared to January and February [12][14]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with specific price changes noted for various cotton grades and synthetic fibers [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on apparel brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has significant growth potential. It also highlights the potential benefits for Tmall from the recovery of Adidas and Nike brand strength [3][25]. - For upstream manufacturing, the report recommends leading textile manufacturers such as Zhejiang Natural and Shenzhou International, which are expected to benefit from increased orders due to their strong risk resilience [3][25]. Market Review and Company Announcements - The textile and apparel sector saw a slight decline of 0.10% in the past week, with notable individual stock performances [4][24]. - Key company announcements include Hailan Home's revenue of ¥20.957 billion for 2024, a decrease of 2.65%, and Zhejiang Natural's revenue growth of 21.75% for the same period [4][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark interest rate while lowering economic growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 due to uncertainties in global trade policies, particularly from the U.S. [1][2] Economic Impact - The Bank of Japan highlights that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which would suppress export demand, squeeze corporate profits, and cause households and businesses to delay consumption and investment [2] - The central bank perceives the downward pressure on the economy as temporary, expecting a gradual recovery in overseas economies to alleviate the negative impacts of tariffs [2] Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan observes that tariff risks are causing a chain reaction affecting inflation, predicting a stagnation in potential inflation rates for a period before a return to upward momentum [2] - Due to tariff increases, the Bank has revised down its growth forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, anticipating a period of slowing inflation and wage growth, although a severe labor shortage is expected to sustain a positive cycle of wage and inflation increases [2][3] Policy Response - The Bank of Japan adopts a pragmatic approach, indicating that policy responses will depend on the extent of deviations in inflation and growth from expectations [4] - Despite lowering growth forecasts, the central bank has not altered its policy framework, emphasizing the need for continued monetary easing to support economic activity [4] Future Considerations - Trade negotiations are identified as a critical variable for future policy, with the potential for a reassessment of economic forecasts if trade disputes escalate and disrupt global supply chains [5] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its timeline for achieving its inflation target, now suggesting a delay of several years compared to previous expectations of reaching the target around FY2025 [5] Market Reaction - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate increased, and market participants have pushed back expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies will likely delay any rate increases [7] - The Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, but there are still weak indicators, particularly in exports and output, which may continue to be affected by trade policy uncertainties [7]

"星巴克中国业绩提振令人欣喜" 每经记者 丁舟洋 每经编辑 董兴生 4月30日，星巴克发布2025财年第二季度业绩，星巴克中国的表现无疑成为全公司一大亮点。 该季度，星巴克全球可比门店销售额下降1%，可比交易量下降2%。其中，北美同店销售额下降1%，可比交易量下降4%。相比之下，中国同店可比交易量 增长4%，与美国市场的表现形成鲜明对比。 事实上，北美和中国是星巴克最重要的两大市场。截至第二财季末，星巴克在美国和中国的门店占公司全球组合的61%，分别开设17122家和7758家门店。 去年9月，星巴克新董事长兼首席执行官Brian Niccol（布莱恩•尼科尔）上任，其最大的任务就是要提振星巴克的业绩。 Brian Niccol也在季报业绩交流会上点名表扬星巴克中国的表现，并且提到星巴克中国的业务发展依托于近乎完全本地化的供应链及烘焙运营体系。星巴克 新任首席财务官Cathy Smith则表示，咖啡豆进口（美国），以及从中国市场采购的饮料原料，是受关税影响很大的两个领域，公司正采取多种措施，降低 关税带来的风险。 而在美国市场，星巴克还面临着较大压力。财报显示，星巴克第二财季北美同店销售额下滑1%，下滑幅度高 ...

2、大众集团CFO周三表示，准备与美国政策制定者合作，扩大在美生产，以规避关税风 险。目前，大众已经在美国田纳西州和墨西哥设有工厂，接下来不排除加大投资、在美国本 土生产更多车型的可能性。 关税冲击下，欧洲前几大车企纷纷撤回2025年业绩指引。 周三，德国梅赛德斯-奔驰集团、Stellantis撤回今年业绩指引，理由是关税扰乱了供应链，并推高了全 球汽车价格。 梅赛德斯表示，关税带来的不确定性太高，无法可靠评估今年的业务发展。如果当前的贸易壁垒持续下 去，公司的营业利润、现金流和利润率将受到冲击。大众汽车维持其业绩预期基本不变，但警告称其尚 未计入关税的影响。 另外，美国车企——通用汽车尽管一季度业绩超预期，但周二宣布取消年度指引，同时暂停股票回购计 划，就连财报电话会时间也有所推迟。 特朗普关税反复横跳，很难看清行业前路 据央视新闻，此前特朗普对进口汽车加征25%的关税已于4月3日正式生效。然而，美国各界对政府关税 政策的反对声持续不断，给政府带来越来越大的压力。当地时间4月29日，特朗普签署公告，允许对进 口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿，用于抵消美国组装的汽车零部件的 部分关税 ...