新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 国内现货升贴水持续走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-16.47美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-160元/吨至23020元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-160元/吨至22930元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至22940元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-17沪锌主力合约开于23005元/吨，收于22970元/吨，较前一交易日-170元/吨，全天交易日成交 120568手，全天交易日持仓59226手，日内价格最高点达到23020元/吨，最低点达到22835元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-17，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-12-17，LME 锌库存为97700吨，较上一交易日变化2150吨。 市场分析 国内现货市场随着绝对价格回落交投活跃，下游逢低点价补货，贸易商交投积极，现货升贴水持续修复。海外库 存激增升水转为贴水，中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，但集中交货预计难以持续， ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 莫桑比克电解铝确定减产 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-60元/吨；中原A00铝价21560元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-70元/吨至-170元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21520元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-55元/吨至-210元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-16日沪铝主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21845元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21655元/吨。全天交易日成交241924手，全天交易日持仓288833手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化1.2万吨，仓单库存77188 吨，较上一交易日变化-625吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-16SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2765元/吨，山东价格录得2690元/吨，河南价格录得 2790元/ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, global supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list, with silver reaching a historic high of $65.163 per ounce, marking a nearly 110% increase this year, outperforming gold and platinum [1][2][6] Group 2 - The surge in demand for precious metals is attributed to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the risk of currency devaluation, with supply shortages becoming a key support for silver prices [2][5] - The structural supply constraints in the silver market are emphasized, with about 70-80% of silver production being a byproduct of mining for other metals, indicating that supply cannot quickly expand even if prices rise [3][5] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as supportive for precious metals, with a recent slight decrease in the probability of a rate cut to 87.4% not diminishing investor interest in silver [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver prices may experience high volatility and potential corrections in the short term, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural supply-demand imbalances [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 successfully promotes re-inflation, corporate profits are expected to recover rapidly, providing strong momentum for the market, similar to the successful logic of supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017 [1] - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable GDP growth, increasing share of the "three new" economy (including automotive and AI industries), and marginal improvement in consumption and investment, with domestic demand becoming the core driving force [1] Group 2 - In the A-share market, there is a strong correlation between A-share profits and PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing enterprises, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI is still at -2.1% year-on-year, and corporate profits are in a bottoming phase. If the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong support for the market [2] - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the US stock market are raised, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, but the adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Group 3 - A risk warning is issued regarding the "policy expectation reversal risk," highlighting the potential conflict if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could challenge the assumption of continued US interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is seen as crucial for the success of the "anti-involution" policy in promoting re-inflation. If PPI turns positive year-on-year, A-shares could experience a rapid recovery in profits similar to the supply-side structural reform period, making this a key market driver [3]

Core Insights - The success of the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 could lead to a re-inflation, similar to the successful logic of the supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017, which may result in a rapid recovery of corporate profits and inject strong momentum into the market [1] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable growth with GDP growth remaining in a stable range, strengthening technology with the "three new" economy's share continuing to rise, and improving domestic demand with significant recovery expected from the low base in 2025 [1] A-Share Market Insights - A-share profitability is highly correlated with PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing firms, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI was down 2.1% year-on-year, with corporate profits in a bottoming phase; if the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong market support [2] U.S. Market Analysis - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market are noted, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, as both PE and PB ratios are at the 99th percentile historically; however, the potential adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Risk Warnings - A key risk identified is the "policy expectation reversal risk," particularly if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could conflict with the assumption of continued U.S. interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is critical as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the success of the "anti-involution" policy being pivotal for driving re-inflation and corporate profit recovery, which is essential for market momentum [3]

【12月15日消息,日本国债收益率挑战2%门槛释 放脱离通缩信号】 <>分析师和投资者透露,指标日 本国债收益率正挑战25年来一直作为上限的2%门 槛,释放出日本期待已久的脱离通缩信号。 <>10年 期日本国债收益率一个月内攀升近30个基点,12月8 日达到18年来最高点1.97%,并徘徊在略低于此的 水平。 <>贝莱德日本首席投资策略师称,10年期国 债收益率达2%至3%有高度象征意义,对企业活动 有利,目本正从三十年通缩向再通胀环境过渡。 【12月15日消息，日本国债收益率挑战2%门槛释放脱离通缩信号】分析师和投资者透露，指标日本国 债收益率正挑战25年来一直作为上限的2%门槛，释放出日本期待已久的脱离通缩信号。 10年期日本国 债收益率一个月内攀升近30个基点，12月8日达到18年来最高点1.97%，并徘徊在略低于此的水平。 贝 莱德日本首席投资策略师称，10年期国债收益率达2%至3%有高度象征意义，对企业活动有利，日本正 从三十年通缩向再通胀环境过渡。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.15 14:33:15 周- 日本国债:收益率挑战2%,释放脱离 通缩信 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜分析师和投资者称，指标日本国债收益率正在挑战25年来一直作为上限的2%门槛， 向市场释放出日本期待已久的脱离通缩信号。10年期日本国收益率在一个月内攀升了近30个基点，于12 月8日达到18年来的最高点1.97%，并徘徊在仅略低于此的水平。"10年期国债收益率达到2%至3%具有 高度象征意义，对企业活动非常有利，"贝莱德日本首席投资策略师YuichiChiguchi表示。"在经历了三 十年的通货紧缩之后，我们现在正在向再通胀环境过渡。" 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|周君芝 杨振辉 上周金银表现强势，其他风险资产偏弱。 2025年大类资产，金银代表的贵金属一骑绝尘。 2025年贵金属行情可分三段，一季度交易特朗普加税；4~7月交易全面关税引发全球失序担忧；8月至 今交易美联储宽松。 与历史其他时期不同，当前美国经济隐含三个长周期因素，科技革命、财政扩张和供应链脱钩，所以美 国增长和通胀分化，经济和政治复杂性空前。 面对中期选举，美联储独立性不得不被搁置，即便面临压不下的通胀中枢，美国依然选择宽松。也就有 了美联储宽松预期不止，美债长短期限利差走扩，贵金属强势。 展望2026年，我们需要关注货币和财政回归之后全球经济走向。接力金银的下一个大宗品种，应该是 铜。 本周关注： 重要会议落地后，债市开启一轮小的修复。 美联储鸽派降息，美元走弱，长端美债收益率上行。 一、中国股市：A股震荡反复，H股小幅下跌。 中国AH股回顾： A股：本周沪指围绕3900点反复震荡，创业板指领涨。中信一级行业方面，通信、国防军工和电子板块 领涨，煤炭、石油石化和纺织服装板块领跌。 H股：本周港股呈V型走势 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 封帆 重要数据 铝 截至2025-12-12，伦铝收盘于2875.0美元/吨，沪铝主力收盘于22170元/吨，华东现货升贴水-50元/吨， 中原地区现货升贴水-120元/吨，佛山地区现货升贴水-160元/吨。 LME铝现货升贴水（0-3）-26.7美元/ 吨。 供应：截至2025-12-12，电解铝建成产能4527.2万吨，周度环比+2.0万吨，运行产能4446.4万吨，周度环 比+2.0万吨，行业开工率98.22%。 需求：根据钢联数据统计，铝棒周度产量36.06万吨，周度环比变化-0.17万吨，铝板带箔周度产量37.14 万吨，周度环比变化-0.21万吨。根据上海有色数据统计，铝线缆龙头企业开工率62.40%，周度环比变 化+0.00%，铝板带龙头企业开工率65.00%，周度环比变化+0.00%，铝箔龙头企业开工率70.40%，周度 环比变化+0.00%，铝型材开工率53.00%，周度环比变化+1.00%。 库存：截至2025-12-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.4万吨，周度变化-1.2万吨，铝棒库存11.7 万吨，周度 ...