农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力 | 2507 | 合约减仓调整，主力合约期价自上周三开始连续一周收十 | 字星，期价呈现调整表现。现货市场方面，东北玉米价格平稳运行，贸易商低价 | | | | | | | | | 售粮意向暂显一般，但目前部分饲料企业采购小麦的积极性偏高，产区玉米购销 | 活跃度稍显一般。昨日华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏弱运行。山东贸易商继续出 | | | | | | | | | | | 货，加上东北货源补充，深加工玉米到货量今日增加，部分企业价格窄幅下调 | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 6-10 | 元/吨。河北、河南价格维持相对稳定。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口 | | | | | | | | 贸易商报价暂时稳定，下游饲料企业提货以前期订单为主，新签订单多为新季小 | 麦，港口库存逐步消化。技术上，玉米 | 7 | 月合约受制于长期均线压制，期价连 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia and China shows a short - term rebound, but long - term view on domestic palm oil remains weak. Soybean oil has short - term strong performance but faces inventory increase and weak demand in the domestic market, with its basis expected to decline [1]. Meal - Two types of meal are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure. US soybeans have no unilateral upward trend. Domestic meal supply pressure will increase, but the basis has limited room to fall [2]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are stable with narrow - range oscillations. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases [4]. Pork - Spot pork prices have rebounded slightly. The 09 contract follows the spot price with a limited upward drive and no basis for a sharp decline [7][8]. Sugar - The supply outlook for 25/26 is optimistic, and the price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to maintain an oscillatory weak trend [11]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the spot basis is strong, providing support for cotton prices. However, the long - term demand is not strong, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand may first decrease and then increase. Egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise this week with a small adjustment range [15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On May 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8100 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7510 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The basis decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The inventory is expected to increase [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong on May 27 was 8550 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The futures price of P2509 was 7980 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on May 27 was 9280 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The futures price of OI509 was 9109 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The basis decreased by 113 yuan/ton [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2966 yuan/ton, up 0.54%. The basis decreased by 16 yuan/ton. The inventory of oil mills is at a low level [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2520 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2599 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. The basis decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. Corn - **Corn**: On May 27, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2324 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The long - term supply is expected to tighten [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2652 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The basis increased by 1 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch decreased by 4 yuan/ton [4]. Pork - **Futures**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 16.87%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13250 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, and the 2509 contract was 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [7]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 14530 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The slaughter volume increased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 40.23% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5708 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5841 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.35% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar decreased [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13330 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13385 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 0.73% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 14485 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The industrial inventory decreased by 2.6%, and the import volume decreased by 14.3% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3713 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The price of the 06 contract was 2696 yuan/500KG, down 2.39% [15]. - **Spot**: The spot price in the egg - producing area was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 1.72%. The basis increased by 110 yuan/500KG, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [15].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 间震荡，短线参与为主。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9444 | 62 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2599 | 33 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 182 353590 | -16 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 27423 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 252 615879 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-22 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。不过已播种区域降雨偏好限制涨幅。周三国内 豆粕现货涨跌互现 10 元/吨左右，华东低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-21 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东 低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。 据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续 增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has limited upward - driving forces and will likely oscillate. Although the market sentiment has improved due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, factors such as high export tariffs, uncertain supply and demand, and a lack of strong incentives in the planting end restrict the cotton price's rebound space [1][2][3] - The sugar market's overall trend is mainly influenced by the international market. Although domestic sugar prices are currently supported, if Brazil's high - yield expectations are gradually realized, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to follow the decline of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market's price is affected by macro - emotions and supply - demand relationships. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the high inventory and weak demand will keep the pulp futures price in a low - level oscillation in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,474 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Import: In April 2025, China's cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 280,000 tons from the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and the tariff policy's uncertainty will increase after 90 days [2] - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties, and the supply - side weather factors currently lack a strong narrative [2] - Domestic: The cotton - planting area has increased slightly, the cotton seedlings are growing well, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not declined sharply. However, it has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is weakening [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate strongly, but the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,853 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,910 yuan/ton, also unchanged [4] - Import: In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons from the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazil's mid - southern sugar production in the second half of April was lower than expected, but most institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the raw sugar price is under pressure [5] - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales and production data are favorable, and the short - term import volume is limited. However, the long - term import pressure is expected to increase, and the price increase space is restricted [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, focusing on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,390 yuan/ton yesterday, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian needles was 5,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market: The prices of imported pulp in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some loosening [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has increased the pulp price's volatility, but the improvement of Sino - US relations has promoted the pulp price's rebound [7] - Supply: The decrease in the foreign - exchange quotation has weakened the cost support, and the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The pulp futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]

从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 【重要资讯】 农产品早报 2025-05-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆窄幅下跌，EPA 已向白宫提交了 RVO 规则供审核，但传言提交的版本大幅低于市场预期，美 豆油弱势带动美豆下跌。周末国内豆粕现货小幅下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报2880元/吨。据MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨 量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧，有利润的情况下当地也会积极出货 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-05-15 美豆延续涨势，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2914元/吨，较前日变动+28元/吨，幅度+0.97%；菜粕2509合约2509元/吨，较前 日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.88%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动-60元/吨，现货基差 M09+106，较前日变动-88；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09+76，较前日变动-28； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M09+116，较前日变动-18。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2440元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09-69，较前日变动-22。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年5月11日当周，美国大豆种植率为48%,高于 市场预期的47%，此前一周为30%,去年同期为34%,五年均值为37%。截至当周，美国大豆出苗率为17%，上一周为 7%，上年同期为15%，五年均值为11%。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西5月前两周出口大豆 4,766 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral to bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the sector has rebounded with fluctuations. For cotton, the macro - situation and new - season supply expectations affect prices; for sugar, the global supply - demand balance and Brazilian production are key factors; for pulp, macro policies and fundamental supply - demand conditions influence the price trend [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+0.86%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,429 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded with fluctuations. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations and the expected reduction in US cotton planting area supported cotton prices, but the acceleration of US cotton sowing and the expected increase in domestic cotton planting area also affected the market. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing, and downstream demand was expected to weaken in the off - season [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the domestic market is in the consumption off - season, and the expected high yield in the new season may suppress the upside space of cotton prices [2] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5906 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Green Pool predicted a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 global sugar supply, with an expected 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons and a 0.95% increase in consumption to 197 million tons [2][3] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late April pushed up the external market, but the expected high yield in the new Brazilian season limited the upside. The good domestic production and sales data supported domestic sugar prices, and the short - term import limitation and tightened policies also made domestic sugar prices more resistant [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazilian weather and policy changes [6] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5378 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton (+1.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed different trends [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices continued to rebound. The improvement in macro - sentiment had a short - term positive impact, but the fundamental support was weak. The reduction in foreign dollar quotes and high inventory levels put pressure on prices, and both European and domestic demand were weak, with the off - season approaching [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bearish. Although pulp prices have rebounded recently due to macro - factors, the off - season of the paper - making industry is coming, and demand is expected to weaken further. It is recommended to take short - selling positions on price increases [7]