文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，波动不大，还在4.9星。 沪深300略微下跌，小盘股回调多一些。 红利等价值风格指数微涨。 遇到市场波动的时候，红利等价值风格通常更抗跌。 港股也出现下跌，昨天上涨较多的港股科技股，今天下跌较多。 不过港股科技前段时间涨了比较多，最近回调后，还在正常估值，还没到低估。 （1）人民币短期相对升值的阶段，A股港股表现就比较好。 例如去年9月下旬，美元汇率大幅贬值，A股港股创下最近几年最快上涨纪录。 例如今年1月中旬至3月中旬，美元再次贬值，A股港股再次大幅上涨。 因为在老外眼中，A股港股属于人民币资产。 遇到人民币强势的阶段，资金净流入人民币资产，对A股港股有利。 前提是A股港股估值还较低。 （2）反过来，美元强势阶段，对A股港股不利。 例如去年11月到1月中旬，美元小幅升值，A股港股就承受压力回调。 而美元升值的阶段，美股就相对强势。 最近美元连续5天升值，对A股港股也产生了影响。 1. 最近大半年，A股港股短期波动，跟汇率利率波动关系比较大。 不过汇率更多的是影响市场的短期涨跌。 并不是影响市场长期收益的主要因素。 指数点数=估值*盈利。 低估买入，背 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management and strategic investment in mutual funds, highlighting that chasing performance and popular fund managers can lead to significant losses [2][4][8]. Group 1: Investment Experiences - Initial investment in a money market fund resulted in a loss of 18% within three months due to market conditions [2][4]. - The experience of investing in a consumer-themed fund managed by a popular fund manager led to a realization that performance rankings can be misleading and that risk alignment is crucial [3][5]. - A subsequent attempt at dollar-cost averaging into an index fund resulted in a 23% loss during a market downturn, illustrating the psychological challenges of maintaining investment strategies [5][6]. Group 2: Lessons Learned - The article outlines key lessons learned from various investment experiences, including the importance of continuing to invest during market declines and the need for a diversified approach to sector funds [6][7]. - The author stresses that industry funds can amplify risks and recommends using a satellite approach with dynamic profit-taking strategies [7][8]. - The experience with a "line-drawing" fund manager highlights the risks of relying on star managers, as changes in management can lead to significant performance declines [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - After five years of experience, the author developed a stable annualized return of 10-12% through disciplined investment strategies, including dollar-cost averaging and balanced asset allocation [9][10]. - A structured asset allocation framework is proposed, dividing investments into three categories: liquid assets (20%), stable investments (50%), and long-term growth (30%) [11]. - The article suggests implementing a systematic approach to investment, including regular portfolio reviews and adjustments based on market conditions [11][12]. Group 4: Guidelines for New Investors - New investors are advised to conduct thorough research before investing, including understanding their risk tolerance and differentiating between short-term and long-term funds [15]. - The article encourages continuous learning and adaptation in investment strategies to improve decision-making and outcomes [15][16]. - The author concludes that successful investing is a long-term endeavor that requires patience and a focus on compounding returns rather than seeking quick profits [14][15].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 从历史数据看，指数增强基金的平均收益，多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 但其中也有一部分跑输了指数，如果不谨慎挑选的话，也有可能买到的基金，实际上跑不赢指数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ～ ◆◆◆ 投吗? 而收益金额的数字高，是可以解决问题的。 并且通过工作,未来赚到的收入还会越来越 多,如果不投资,拿着现金就会被通货膨胀 侵蚀。 如果投入，会把买入成本拉高、收益率降 低，觉得下不去手，该怎么办呢? 假设之前买入一万,赚了20%的收益率, 这个时候收益是2000元。 如果再投入1万,本金从1万变成了2万,收 益率会变成10%。 因为后投入的1万，才刚刚投入进去，还没 有产生收益。 但其实之前2000元赚到的收益是并没有减 少的。 这就有一个矛盾的地方:是要更高的收益 率,还是要更高的收益? 对普通投资者来说，更高的收益，会更关键 -발。 如果本金少，即便収益举很局，也解决个了 生活的问题。 例如投入1000元,哪怕收益率到20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while many investors aim to make money through fund investments, the reality is that consistently predicting fund price movements is challenging and often leads to failure [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors often think they can buy low and sell high to make profits, but this approach is not reliable [2][3]. - A more viable strategy is to focus on long-term capital appreciation through active management funds, which requires careful evaluation of fund managers and their performance [4][6]. - The article suggests that even successful funds like Berkshire Hathaway may underperform indices over certain periods, leading to difficult decisions for investors [5][6]. Group 2: Index Funds and Asset Allocation - Investing in index funds is recommended as a simpler alternative, although it may not guarantee profits either [6][8]. - A diversified approach involving multiple market indices (e.g., A-shares, Hong Kong, US markets) can mitigate risks and enhance returns [9][10]. - The concept of asset allocation is highlighted as a way to balance investments across various asset classes, reducing volatility and providing more stable returns [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Practices - Regular contributions through dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can help investors build wealth over time, acting as a form of forced savings [10][12]. - Rebalancing the investment portfolio periodically is essential to maintain the desired asset allocation and capitalize on market fluctuations [11][12]. - The article concludes by introducing a tool for asset allocation, promoting a structured approach to investment management [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly the technology sector and the low-volatility dividend ETFs, highlighting investment strategies and valuation metrics like the "Market Earnings Ratio" [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF rising over 50% since mid-January [2]. - The low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) has also started to experience a rebound, indicating a broader bull market in Hong Kong stocks [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of selling as prices rise and to maintain cash positions for potential reinvestment in low-volatility dividend ETFs [2][8]. - The concept of "ten-year dollar-cost averaging" is emphasized, suggesting that investors should remain disciplined and not become emotionally attached to stocks [9]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The author introduces a self-invented valuation metric called "Market Earnings Ratio" (PR), calculated as PE/ROE/100, where a PR of 1 indicates fair valuation [3]. - For the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550), the current Market Earnings Ratio is approximately 0.725, suggesting it is undervalued at around 70% of its fair value [5][10]. Group 4: Dividend Yield and Economic Context - As of January 2025, the dividend yield for the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) is 7.96%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.62%, making it an attractive investment during a rate-cutting cycle [10]. - The article argues against the misconception that dividend yields must reach risk-free rates to be considered overvalued, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on valuation metrics [10].

畅销书《行稳致远，价值投资的底层逻辑》作者，雪球网2024年十大影响力用户，聊聊投资和人生，适 度分散 长期持有 选优秀的企业 做时间的朋友 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 终身黑白 来源：雪球 对于投资这件事 ， 要明白一个道理 ， 既然想按计划执行 ， 就很难获得理论上最好的结果 。 你有选股标准 ， 就意味着你会错过很多标准外的机会 。 当你选择了逐步卖出的体系 ， 就意味着你绝大部分卖出计划都不可能卖到高点附近 。 以下文章来源于终身黑白 ，作者终身黑白投资感悟 终身黑白 . 1 两个执念带来的焦虑 北京时间2月22日9点 ， 伯克希尔哈撒韦官网公布了2024年年度报告 ， 以及一份沃伦 · 巴菲特每 年亲自撰写的致股东信 。 今年的股东信仍然比较精简 ， 除了业绩表格外只有15页内容 。 主要有几点 1 、 伯克希尔2024财年的归母净利达到889.95亿美元 ， 较上年同期有所下降 ， 但2024年全年营 业利润增长27% ， 达到474.37亿美元 ， 189家运营企业中有53%出现了收益下降 2 、 谈到日本的投资时 ， 巴菲特透露 ...