Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a unified national market to enhance domestic demand and drive economic growth in China, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 1: Market Potential and Economic Structure - China's super-large market is characterized by a steadily expanding middle-income group, advanced digital infrastructure, and a well-defined regional development pattern, which together create a robust economic ecosystem [1]. - The current population of over 1.4 billion is projected to see the middle-income group exceed 800 million in the next decade, indicating significant market potential [1]. - The diverse and tiered demand from various demographics, such as the elderly seeking health services and the younger generation desiring personalized experiences, provides ample opportunities for innovation and industrial upgrades [1]. Group 2: Reform and Demand Transformation - To convert market potential into effective demand, it is essential to deepen reforms that eliminate barriers to economic circulation, such as local protectionism and market segmentation [2]. - The construction of a unified national market will facilitate smoother movement of goods and resources, allowing local products to access broader markets at lower costs and higher efficiency [2]. - The focus should be on enhancing supply quality and optimizing income distribution alongside expanding domestic demand, addressing the shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality [2]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - Technology plays a crucial role in unlocking new spaces for domestic demand, with China's vast data resources and highly digitalized consumption activities extending consumption scenarios [3]. - The development of the digital and smart economy promotes deeper integration of online and offline consumption, creating new consumer hotspots and transforming supply-demand matching [3]. - Utilizing big data allows companies to gain insights into subtle changes in consumer needs, enabling precise targeting and efficient supply, thus making the super-large market dynamic and capable of generating new demands [3].

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the A-share market in 2026 highlights the integration of policy dividends and industrial opportunities, with a focus on two main lines and two auxiliary lines [1] Group 1: Main Lines of Investment - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, with a shift in domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, emphasizing key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [1] - Main Line 2: The gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, combined with supply-demand structure optimization and price recovery expectations, is expected to lead to a clear profit recovery path in the manufacturing and resource sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Environment for 2026 - Overseas Perspective: The Trump administration may refocus on economic growth amid midterm election pressures, with a cooling labor market and persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle throughout 2026, with higher expectations for cuts in the second half of the year [2] - Domestic Perspective: China's macro policies are anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with resilient economic growth and inflation expected to recover from low levels under the influence of expanding domestic demand and anti-involution policies [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to strengthen reform policy expectations, with supportive price factors like the upward trend of the RMB exchange rate enhancing liquidity and boosting market confidence [3] - A-share valuations are currently in a relatively reasonable range, and the improvement in the fundamentals of listed companies is expected to become a key focus for the market in 2026, driven by the deepening of economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [3] Group 4: Style Judgments - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the first three quarters of 2026, as the Fed's rate cuts and the upward trend of emerging industries enhance market risk appetite [4] - Growth stocks are projected to continue leading in earnings growth compared to value stocks, with favorable conditions for equity asset valuations due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand through the construction of a unified national market, which is seen as a strategic move to leverage China's vast market potential and support high-quality economic development [1][2][3] - China's current economic landscape is characterized by a growing middle-income group, advanced digital infrastructure, and a diverse regional development pattern, which together create a robust ecosystem for consumption upgrades [1][2] - The prediction from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that China's middle-income group will exceed 800 million in the next decade, highlighting significant market potential driven by diverse consumer demands across different demographics [1][2] Group 2 - To convert market potential into effective demand, it is essential to deepen reforms that address barriers in economic circulation, facilitating smoother flow of goods and factors across the country [2] - The strategy involves breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, allowing regional products to access broader markets at lower costs, thus enriching consumer choices [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand should be aligned with improving supply quality and optimizing income distribution, addressing the shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality [2] Group 3 - Technological empowerment is identified as a key driver for unlocking new spaces in domestic demand, with China's large data scale and high digitalization enhancing consumer engagement [3] - The development of the digital and smart economy is crucial for integrating online and offline consumption, creating new consumption hotspots and transforming supply-demand matching [3] - By leveraging technology and breaking down barriers through innovation, the internal circulation of the economy can be strengthened, providing a stable foundation for future growth and resilience against external challenges [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [4][26]. Core Insights - The social services sector is expected to benefit from continuous government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential valuation recovery during the reporting period [4][26]. - The report highlights the performance of key stocks within the sector, with notable gains from Yum China (9.53%), Kede Education (9.20%), and Jinjiang Hotels (8.99%) [14][17]. - The anticipated increase in the number of college graduates in 2026, projected to reach 12.7 million, is expected to drive demand in the education sector [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 2.03% during the reporting period but outperformed the broader market by 2.78 percentage points [13][14]. - The report period was from November 10, 2025, to November 23, 2025, with the CSI 300 index declining by 4.81% [13][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Sanya launched its sixth round of duty-free consumption vouchers, which will run until December 31, 2025, targeting both travelers and local residents [18]. - JD Retail has established a new prepared food division, indicating a strategic upgrade in its operations [21]. - NetEase Youdao reported a 51.1% year-on-year increase in online marketing service revenue, becoming its largest revenue source for the first time [22]. Stock Holdings Analysis - Key stocks in the Hong Kong market saw changes in holdings, with Tianli International Holdings and Gu Ming receiving increases in shareholding [25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on stocks such as China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Trip.com Group, among others, for potential investment [4][26]. - Mid-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Misyue Group, and Ctrip Group, indicating a diversified investment strategy [4][26]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies, with China Duty Free Group projected to have an EPS of 1.91 CNY in 2025 and 2.28 CNY in 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and social welfare in China's economic growth strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% for 2026, focusing on enhancing living standards and consumption [4][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% to achieve a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with a potential growth rate of 5.0% [4][6]. - The shift in macroeconomic policy since June 2025 indicates a stronger emphasis on domestic demand, particularly in the areas of social welfare and consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Allocation - The 2026 budget is expected to increase spending in social welfare areas by approximately 320 billion yuan, with a projected budget deficit of 6.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 520 billion yuan increase from 2025 [11][10]. - In a more optimistic scenario, if child-rearing subsidies and pension standards are raised, the budget deficit could reach 6.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 960 billion yuan from 2025 [11]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to enhance support for families with children through subsidies and free preschool education, with a budget of 1 trillion yuan for child-rearing subsidies and 500 billion yuan for expanding preschool education [7][8]. - For elderly care, the basic pension is expected to increase by at least 50 yuan, with additional subsidies for elderly care services projected to cost between 500 to 800 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Service Sector Growth - The article highlights the need to boost service consumption, which is expected to grow significantly as the economy transitions, with service consumption growth outpacing overall retail sales growth [13][16]. - The government plans to issue consumption subsidies funded by special bonds, focusing on sectors like tourism, culture, and sports to stimulate consumer spending [16]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Effective Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for effective investment in urban renewal and public services, with a projected issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for urban renewal projects [18][19]. - The government aims to maintain a reasonable growth rate in investment while ensuring that it aligns with high-quality development goals [17][18]. Group 6: Debt Management and Financial Stability - The article discusses the continuation of policies to manage hidden debts and repay corporate debts, with a planned issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds [23][24]. - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.18 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a slight increase from 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability while supporting growth [26].

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2018年上半年我国国内生产总值418961亿元，按可比价格计算，同比 增长6.8%。分季度看，一季度同比增长6.8%，二季度增长6.7%。 贾康认为，我国宏观经济运行如果从平台来看，从2015年下半年开始的，到现在已经三年之久，12个季 度在平台状运行，如果不出大的意外，稍微往下调整以后，仍然有望延续这种由新入常的平台运行状 态。 未来宏观经济发展的重点何在？贾康认为，进一步扩大内需、中国可选择的聪明投资或有效投资，有巨 大潜能空间，要坚定不移地全面扩大开放等方面是发展要点。 每经记者｜张钟尹 每经编辑｜毕陆名 7月21日，华夏新供给经济学研究院、中国新供给经济学50人论坛在青岛举行以"新供给、新金融：助推 高质量发展"为主题的2018年第二季度宏观经济形势分析会。 华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康在分析会上表示，下半年和今后的不确定性主要来自外部的 冲击和影响，对连锁反应是值得特别关注的，十分敏感的股市和汇市，可能会比实际上应该客观估量的 影响表现为升级状态。 在指出这些不确定性的同时，贾康也十分强调确定性。他强调，从全局和长远来看，这些不确定性旁 边，的确还有确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The service industry contributed 60.5% to economic growth in the first half of the year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a solidifying role as an economic "ballast" and further optimization of industrial structure [1] - The current consumption structure in China is undergoing rapid upgrades, driven by continuously evolving consumer demand, which strongly supports the growth of the service industry [1][2] - The potential for economic transformation in China is significant, with the service sector having at least 20 percentage points of growth potential, translating to trillions of yuan in consumer demand [4] Group 2 - The key to expanding domestic demand lies in optimizing the business environment, as a poor environment can lead to capital outflow [5] - Reducing corporate costs, particularly tax and institutional transaction costs, is essential for economic transformation and upgrading, as these costs are currently at high levels [5] - The development of the service industry is not yet aligned with the needs of the real economy and the transformation of manufacturing, indicating a need for further adaptation [5] Group 3 - There is a significant gap in service trade between China and the global average, with China's service trade accounting for only 14.5% compared to the global average of 23.8% in 2016, highlighting the need for accelerated market opening in the service sector [6]

中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中 央农办主任韩文秀在 人民日报 发表署 名文章《"十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具有 承前启后的重要地位（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》。文章指出，党的十八大以来，我国经济社会发展取得了举世瞩目的伟大成 就。"十五五"时期，要坚持目标导向和问题导向相结合，突出重点和整体推进相统一，巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短板弱项，保持 改革发展稳定的良好态势。 以下为原文： "十五五"时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神） 韩文秀 党的二十届 四中全会通过的《 中共 中央关 于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出，"'十五五'时期在基本实现社 会主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位"。这是党中央着眼于我国社会主义现代化建设的历史进程，对"十五五"时期重要地位作出的 重大判断，我们要准确把握其内涵要义，抓好贯彻落实。 一、实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程 我们党的初心使命是为中国人民谋幸福，为中华民族谋复兴。建党百余年来，党团结带领人民所进行的一切奋斗，就是为了把我国建设成为 ...

党的二十届四中全会提出，坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国 内大循环内生动力和可靠性。 支持基础设施提质升级。建设银行立足传统优势，支持重点城市、商圈等消费基础设施提质升级，做好 行内信贷产品制度优化，加大对包括购物中心、酒店、商业综合体等项目的信贷支持力度；聚焦铁路公 路货运、水上运输、多式联运等领域，降低物流信贷成本，今年发放现代物流领域贷款超1600亿元，助 力消费流通体系效率提升。建行厦门市分行助力"屿见闽南·时光幻境"文商旅综合体及厦门国际博览中 心建设，建行广东省分行贷款支持广东天然气管网"县县通工程"禾云—连州—连山项目。 扩围普惠金融服务。建设银行运用"商户云贷""善营贷"等普惠金融产品，强化对消费领域商户的融资支 持，精准服务汽车、家电、家装等重点领域小微企业和个体工商户。建行江苏省分行不仅做信贷资金提 供者解决融资难题，更向着为企业提供全经营场景、全生命周期服务的方向进行业务扩展，针对参 与"苏新消费"活动的商户，制定"善营贷"专属客群服务方案，为客户定制化提供"支付 ...