Core Insights - The article discusses the current economic and financial landscape in China, highlighting the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on investment and consumption trends. Group 1: Important Events Commentary - Fiscal data shows that improved inflation has boosted tax revenue year-on-year, with public spending increasingly supporting technology alongside a focus on livelihood areas. Government fund expenditures remain high, which is expected to ensure strong spending in Q4 [4]. - Economic data indicates a year-on-year decline in investment and consumption growth for September, attributed to the "anti-involution" initiative and reduced subsidy effects. A new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is anticipated to enhance production and manufacturing investment structure, supporting the annual growth target [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Overview - The DR007 interest rate remains low, with slight fluctuations around 1.4%. The overall liquidity is loose, but interbank certificate of deposit yields have risen slightly due to seasonal deposit outflows and limited supply [5]. - In the primary market, local government debt issuance totaled 789.5 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 176 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support investment expansion [6]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 10-year bond yield showing volatility. The bond market is influenced by uncertainties in US-China relations and expectations of interest rate cuts due to marginal declines in economic data [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals is currently low, with weak fundamentals indicating lower returns for the real economy. However, the low coupon and volatility of bonds suggest limited potential for higher overall returns [7]. - On the policy front, the 500 billion yuan allocation for local government debt will support debt resolution and investment expansion, while nearly 300 billion yuan of a new policy financial tool has been deployed to support emerging industries like digital economy and AI [7]. - The overall liquidity is expected to remain loose, although there may be marginal tightening at month-end. The bond market sentiment has improved since Q3, but the main direction remains unclear, with risks of steepening interest rate curves if trade relations improve [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for macro policies to continuously exert force and timely increase efforts to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1][2] - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to support local investment and stabilize growth, marking a significant increase from the previous year's allocation of 400 billion yuan [1][2] - The arrangement of the debt balance limit is seen as a proactive fiscal policy measure, with the total scale increasing by 100 billion yuan compared to last year, and the funds will be used to support local governments in resolving existing project debts and unpaid corporate accounts [2][3] Group 2 - The macro policy aims to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures, ensuring that funds are allocated efficiently to generate tangible outcomes and support economic recovery [2][3] - The government plans to continue advancing the issuance of new local government debt limits for 2026, which will facilitate the smooth operation of the government bond market and meet funding needs for major projects [3] - A new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan is being implemented, focusing on supporting innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade, with an emphasis on precise fund allocation to avoid inefficiencies [3]

Fiscal Overview - In September 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure were in a tight balance, with expenditure growing at a relatively fast pace, providing support to the fundamentals [2] - The general public budget revenue in September increased by 2.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated tax revenue growth [2][4] - The general public budget expenditure in September grew by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous month's growth of 0.8% [2][4] Government Fund Budget - The government fund budget showed a recovery in September, with revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a previous decline of 5.7% [2][8] - The expenditure growth rate for the government fund budget slowed to 0.4% in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month [2][9] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue for September reached 15,678 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, continuing the recovery trend [4] - The tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 0.7%, a significant increase from the previous value of 0.02% [5] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of 9.7%, attributed to enhanced tax collection measures since 2025 [5] Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure in September was 28,740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [7] - The expenditure completion rate for the first nine months reached 70.1%, with social security and employment, health, and education sectors showing faster spending progress [7] Regional and Sectoral Performance - Among 31 provinces, 27 reported positive growth in tax revenue, with only a few regions affected by declining prices of major commodities [5] - Key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and education received substantial funding, with growth rates of 10%, 6.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5] Policy Implications - The acceleration of new policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to local governments are expected to support economic recovery [3] - The focus on effective investment and project construction in major economic provinces is anticipated to enhance overall economic performance [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative factors materialized. The market stabilized but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack in the form of clear monetary easing. The Q3 GDP growth of 4.8% met expectations, with the domestic economic fundamentals slowing since the end of Q2. Although exports remained resilient, domestic demand was still weak, making policy stimulus necessary. The orientation of loose monetary and fiscal policies remained unchanged, but short - term monetary easing was unlikely. The bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw. It was necessary to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity, and pay attention to the possible hedging demand from Sino - US trade negotiations [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: Provided trading data of treasury bond futures on October 23, including contract details such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., with information on pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, etc. For example, TL2512 had a pre - settlement price of 115.600, a closing price of 115.210, a decline of 0.390, and a decline rate of 0.34% [6] - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the afternoon, the A - share market rose, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. The yields of major term interest - bearing treasury bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - long end rising less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.95bp [7][8] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable with a marginal tightening. There were 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 212.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. As the tax payment period approached, the inter - bank funding sentiment index rose slightly. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31, the 7 - day rate dropped 0.6bp to 1.4267%, and the medium - long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remaining around 1.66% [9] 2. Industry News - **International News**: US President Trump said he expected to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy played an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there was no information to provide on the specific issue. On October 22, the US Senate failed to pass the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill, and the government "shutdown" stalemate continued. This was the 12th time the Senate had voted down the bill since the government "shutdown" [12] - **Domestic News**: PBOC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng attended the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable and other meetings, stating that trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties dragged down global economic growth, and developing countries faced increased debt burdens and liquidity problems. China actively participated in debt restructuring. Three policy banks announced that nearly 300 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been invested, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in total project investment. Since October, more than 10 small and medium - sized banks had cut deposit rates, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [13][14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Included information on the price differences between different terms and varieties of treasury bond futures' main contracts, as well as the trends of main contracts [15][16][19] - **Money Market**: Included the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate, the SHIBOR term structure, and the SHIBOR trend [27][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Included the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps [36]

Core Insights - The establishment of new structural monetary policy tools and innovative policy financial instruments is a significant measure to promote high-quality economic development in China [1][2] - As of mid-October, nearly 300 billion yuan has been allocated through these new financial tools, which are crucial for driving economic growth in the fourth quarter and achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1][2] Group 1: Policy Framework - The new policy financial tools are characterized by a "quasi-fiscal" positioning, allowing for multi-departmental collaboration that overcomes traditional policy tool constraints [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is responsible for selecting quality projects, ensuring alignment with national strategic goals, while policy banks raise funds through market mechanisms [2] - This innovative mechanism enhances funding efficiency and mitigates moral hazards, providing sustainable financial support for high-quality economic development [2] Group 2: Investment Focus - The new financial tools have shifted investment focus from traditional infrastructure to innovation-driven sectors, significantly increasing support for technology innovation and emerging industries [3] - As of October 17, 37.5% of the nearly 190 billion yuan allocated by the China Development Bank has been directed towards key areas such as digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The requirement for 20% of funds to support private enterprises enhances the inclusivity of the policy, ensuring that resources flow to the most innovative market players [3] Group 3: Regional Alignment and Leverage Effect - Project reserves reflect a structural alignment with regional development strategies, showcasing a tailored policy approach [4] - The injection of 500 billion yuan in capital is expected to leverage bank loans, potentially generating an investment multiplier effect of 2-3 times, leading to an additional 1 trillion to 1.7 trillion yuan in investments [4] - If the multiplier effect is fully realized, it could reach 10-12 times, resulting in a total investment scale of 5 trillion to 6 trillion yuan, effectively addressing the capital shortfall for major projects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of new structural monetary policy tools and innovative policy financial instruments is a significant measure to promote high-quality economic development in China, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][3]. Group 1: Implementation and Impact - As of mid-October, nearly 3000 billion yuan has been allocated through new policy financial instruments, which are crucial for driving economic growth in the fourth quarter and achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [3][4]. - The innovative policy arrangement balances short-term growth stabilization and long-term structural optimization, showcasing the precision and foresight of macroeconomic regulation [3][4]. Group 2: Structural Features - The core innovation of the new policy financial instruments lies in their "quasi-fiscal" positioning, which allows for multi-departmental collaboration and overcomes traditional policy tool constraints [4][5]. - The funding sources are market-based, avoiding direct increases in fiscal deficits, thus providing greater policy space for macroeconomic regulation [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The new policy financial instruments have shifted investment focus from traditional infrastructure to innovation-driven sectors, significantly increasing support for technology innovation and emerging industries [5][6]. - By mid-October, 37.5% of the nearly 1900 billion yuan allocated by the National Development Bank was directed towards key areas such as digital economy and artificial intelligence [5][6]. Group 4: Regional Alignment - Project reserves reflect a structural characteristic that aligns closely with regional development strategies, demonstrating a tailored policy approach [5][6]. - For instance, in the Yangtze River Delta region, projects are focused on cutting-edge technology fields, promoting deep integration of innovation and industry chains [5][6]. Group 5: Leverage Effect - The injection of 5000 billion yuan in capital is expected to leverage bank loan growth, potentially creating a multiplier effect of 2-3 times, leading to an additional investment of 10 trillion to 17 trillion yuan [6]. - If the multiplier effect is fully realized, it could reach 10-12 times, resulting in a total investment scale of 50 trillion to 60 trillion yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of China's fiscal revenue in 2023, driven primarily by tax revenue growth, alongside the implementation of proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the economy and support key sectors [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Tax Recovery - In the first three quarters of 2023, the broad fiscal revenue reached 194,593 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.4%, the first positive growth this year [3][4]. - The general public budget revenue was 163,876 billion yuan, with tax revenue at 132,664 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively [6][4]. - Tax revenue growth turned positive in 2023, with September seeing an 8.7% year-on-year increase, the highest monthly growth this year [6][4]. - The recovery in tax revenue is attributed to improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions, with capital market-related tax revenue increasing by 56.8% year-on-year [6][4]. - Non-tax revenue, however, declined by 0.4% to 31,212 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and stricter regulation on administrative penalties [8][7]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue, mainly from land sales, decreased by 0.5% to 30,717 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 4.2% to 22,302 billion yuan [12][4]. - The decline in land sale revenue is attributed to ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [12][4]. Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure in the first three quarters reached 208,064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant allocations to social security, education, and healthcare [15][4]. - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with net financing from government bonds reaching 1.146 trillion yuan, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [13][4]. - Government fund expenditure grew significantly by 23.9% to 74,924 billion yuan, reflecting a strong focus on public welfare and infrastructure [16][4]. Economic Stabilization Measures - The government has introduced new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan to enhance project capital and stimulate investment, with over 3.3 trillion yuan in total project investment expected [19][4]. - Recent fiscal policies aim to support local governments in managing existing debts and facilitating economic recovery, particularly in major economic provinces [19][4].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货10月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.490 | 115.710 | 115.610 | 115.600 | 0.120 | 0.10 ...

10月23日，三大指数集体下跌，银行板块逆势上涨，中证银行指数(399986.SZ)上涨0.85%，该指数成分 股中，邮储银行上涨超2%，青岛银行与江阴银行等9只上涨超1%，民生银行与交通银行等11只上涨近 1%。值得注意的是，农业银行继续走强现涨近1%，9月25日以来走出15连阳累计涨幅近25%，总市值逼 近2.9万亿元。 相关ETF方面，银行ETF天弘（515290）涨0.67%，成交额为957.31万元。资金流向方面，截至10月22 日，近5个交易日累计净流入额为3.15亿元。该ETF最新流通份额为47.98亿份，最新流通规模为71.28亿 元。 据证券日报，9月30日，浦发银行公告，东方资产"及其控制的一致行动人通过二级市场购入普通股及可 转债转股的形式增持该行股份。在此之前，信达投资也借助可转债转股增持浦发银行股份。实际上，年 内AMC布局银行股动作频频。除了上述东方资产增持浦发银行外，年内获AMC增持的还有光大银行、 中国银行。 中信证券研报表示，复盘历史，2025年第四季度或成为红利股底部布局、获取超额收益的关键时点之 一，目前基本面悲观预期或已充分反映，且A股高速公路龙头重新回到5%左右的股息 ...

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