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中国银河证券:多因素推动证券板块景气度上行
news flash· 2025-07-24 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the national policy goals of "stabilizing growth, stabilizing the stock market," and "boosting the capital market" will continue to shape the future direction of the securities sector [1] Group 1: Policy Environment - The liquidity environment is expected to remain moderately loose, contributing to an improved capital market environment [1] - The combination of various factors, including the restoration of investor confidence, is driving the upward trend in the securities sector's prosperity [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - There is an increasing expectation for the expansion of medium to long-term funds, which further enhances the outlook for fundamental improvements in the sector [1]
铝锭:工业金属高位运行,关注宏观情绪
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 13:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]
煤焦:供给侧政策预期强化盘面,注意风险控制
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 13:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading on the positive expectations under the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "stable growth". The unexpected release of the over - production verification policy has led to the continued release of market excitement, driving the futures and spot prices to run strongly in resonance. However, attention should be paid to the technical correction risk after the rapid rise of the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures rose strongly, with multiple contracts hitting consecutive daily limits. The night - session near - month coking coal contract continued to hit the daily limit. The spot market was also strong, and the second round of coke price increases was being gradually implemented [2] Policy Factors - The market spread that the National Energy Administration recently issued a document on organizing and carrying out the verification of coal mine production. The verification covers production coal mines in 8 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. The most concerned content in the verification is whether the annual raw coal output in 2024 exceeded the announced production capacity and whether the monthly raw coal output from January to June 2025 exceeded 10% of the announced production capacity. This policy will standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and further stimulate the rise of coal prices [2] Fundamental Factors - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption rhythm, but the overall resumption process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were prone to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. On the demand side, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level, and the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0263 million tons [2]
冠通每日交易策略-20250723
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 10:29
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 7 月 23 日 热点品种 焦煤: 焦煤今日高开高走,日内偏强震荡,触及涨停。现货方面,山西市场(介休)主 流价格报价 1080 元/吨,较上个交易日持平;蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 900 元/吨, 较上个交易日+50 元/吨。基本面来看,6 月份焦煤进口数量环比增加,较上月增 加 172.15 万吨,其中蒙煤进口增加 36 万吨。国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省 (区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作的消息持续发酵,本期洗煤厂开工数与产量 均有下降,安全月检查与煤矿核查工作同时进行,预计供应端将环比缩量。库存 端,焦煤库存向下传导,矿山库存去化,钢厂及独立焦企焦煤库存增加,焦煤交 投情绪积极。焦炭二轮提涨,下游钢厂盈利尚可,上周铁水产量转为上涨,下游 需求提振煤炭价格。7 月 19 日,雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工,项目总投 资约 1.2 万亿,投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍,建设周期约 20 年。整体来说, 反内卷举措持续加码,近日国家能源局开启煤矿核查 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20250724
光大证券研究· 2025-07-23 08:58
Real Estate - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 30 core cities increased by 22.6% year-on-year, totaling 48.63 million square meters, accounting for 52.1% of the total residential land transaction area in 100 cities [3] - The average floor price of residential land reached 12,009 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [3] - The overall premium rate for the core 30 cities was 13.5%, up by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Petrochemical Industry - The government is expected to introduce a work plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and promote healthy industry development [3] - The assessment phase for the elimination of old production capacity in the chemical industry is currently underway, which is anticipated to optimize supply-side dynamics [3] - A significant proportion of outdated refining facilities in China suggests that their elimination could enhance industry competitiveness [3] High-end Manufacturing - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, while the export of engineering machinery maintained a high level of prosperity [3] - From January to June, exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America decreased by 7% and 4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The cumulative export growth rate for major engineering machinery categories remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3] Company Insights: Visionox - Visionox has maintained its leading position in the global liquid crystal TV main control board market, with shipments of 67.22 million, 56.23 million, and 67.32 million units for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4] - The company's market share in global liquid crystal TV main control boards was 33.01%, 28.19%, and 32.72% for the same years [4] Company Insights: Bilibili - Bilibili's revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to reach 7.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [4] - The revenue breakdown for major business segments includes gaming at 1.61 billion yuan (up 60% year-on-year), VAS at 2.82 billion yuan (up 10%), advertising at 2.42 billion yuan (up 19%), and e-commerce at 480 million yuan (down 8%) [4] - The expected gross profit for Q2 2025 is 2.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.5% [4] Company Insights: Haier Smart Home - Haier is expected to benefit from climate change as Europe experiences increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves [5] - The report from the European Medium-Range Weather Forecast Centre indicates that June 2025 may be one of the hottest on record for Europe [5] Company Insights: Zhou Hei Ya - Zhou Hei Ya is projected to achieve revenue of 1.2 to 1.24 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% to 4.7% [6] - The company expects a profit of 90 to 113 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.2% to 94.8% [6] - The management mechanism of Zhou Hei Ya is noted for its flexibility, with a clear and prioritized strategy that is expected to lead to ongoing operational improvements [6]
黑色商品日报-20250723
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 06:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]
能源化策略日报:??品种?幅反弹,煤炭和煤化?将延续强势-20250723
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:25
Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the stock index futures market, the pro - cyclical theme continues to ferment, and the A - share market has increased in volume. In the bond market, it is in a weak and stable state, and the short - term is affected by the rebound of risk preference. The precious metals market is strong due to the weakening of the US dollar. The shipping futures market is expected to be weak. Most non - ferrous metals show different trends of rise and fall, and the black metal market is generally on the rise. The agricultural product market has different performances in different varieties [2][7][10][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On July 22, major A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3581.86 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, with IF2509 and IH2509 rising 1.12% and 0.90% respectively, and IC2509 and IM2509 rising 1.15% and 0.66% respectively [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange plans to cancel the registration of foreign direct investment in China for reinvestment. Overseas, EU leaders will visit China [3] - **Funding**: On July 22, the A - share trading volume increased to 1.89 trillion yuan, and the north - bound capital trading volume was 2414.97 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indices maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the performance reporting period, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract [4] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board on July 22. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **News**: The A - share market rose, and most domestic commodity futures closed higher [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: The risk - on sentiment suppresses the bond market, but the current fundamentals are still in a weak and stable state, which is bullish for the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Affected by multiple factors such as US trade negotiations and the possible continuation of Fed Chairman Powell's tenure, the US dollar index continued to fall, and gold and silver prices were strong. International gold closed at $3431.38 per ounce, up 1.02%, and international silver closed at $39.285 per ounce, up 0.94% [9][10] - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and the current market lacks a clear driver. Silver has a large change in physical demand, and the price center may move up. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of July 22, the spot prices of major shipping companies showed different levels [12] - **Index**: As of July 21, the SCFIS European line index fell 0.89% month - on - month, and the US West line index rose 2.78% [12] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year. The demand side showed different PMI data in the eurozone and the US [13] - **Logic**: The futures price fell on July 22. As the peak season is coming to an end, the spot price is expected to decline, and the sentiment of the main contract will be suppressed [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [14] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 79755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [15] - **Macro**: The domestic anti - involution policy boosts copper demand and may promote the clearance of smelting capacity [16] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper is expected to increase in July [17] - **Demand**: The demand for copper has certain resilience, and the power and new energy sectors support the demand [18] - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [18] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is good, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [19] Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On July 22, the average spot price of alumina in various regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton [19] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased [20] - **Inventory**: The port inventory and registered warehouse receipts of alumina decreased [20] - **Logic**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the risk of short - squeeze, the price rose strongly in the short - term. In the medium - term, the market is slightly oversupplied [21] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to be strong above 3100 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] - **Supply**: In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decline in July [22] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the start - up rate increased slightly last week [23] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory increased [23] - **Logic**: The aluminum price rebounded slightly, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [24] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [24] - **Supply**: In July, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry is expected to decline slightly [25] - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the trading activity has decreased [25] - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and some areas are close to full storage [25] - **Logic**: The price of the aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price to rise slightly, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [27] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [27] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in July [28] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of the three primary processing industries are differentiated, and the overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [29] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [29] - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the demand is under pressure in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [30] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [30] Tin - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of SMM 1 tin was 266300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from the previous day [30] - **Supply**: In May, the import of tin ore and tin ingots increased [31] - **Demand and Inventory**: The start - up rate of solder decreased in June, and the LME inventory decreased [32][33] - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be repaired, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for the time being [33] - **Operation Suggestion**: Avoid short positions for the time being and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [33] Nickel - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous day [33] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is expected to increase slightly in July [34] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [34] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory has increased [34] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [35] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [36] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [37] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore has loosened, and the price of nickel iron has improved slightly [37] - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease in July [38] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing [38] - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive, but the terminal demand is weak. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [39] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [40] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On July 22, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous day [40] - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in July, and the supply is relatively sufficient [41] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, and the seasonal performance is weakened [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory in all links is increasing [43] - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment supports the price, but the fundamental logic has not changed. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [44] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to operate between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [45] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of steel billets and steel products increased [45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost has increased, but the steel price has also risen, and the profit of steel mills has increased [45] - **Supply**: The molten iron output has increased, and the production of steel mills is expected to increase [45] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products has remained stable at a high level [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has remained stable at a low level [46] - **Logic**: The anti - involution policy boosts the market sentiment, and the steel price is expected to continue to rise [47] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [47] Iron Ore - **Spot**: On July 22, the price of mainstream iron ore powder increased [48] - **Futures**: The main 09 contract and the far - month 01 contract of iron ore rose [48] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties showed different levels [48] - **Demand**: The molten iron output and blast furnace operating rate increased [48] - **Supply**: The global shipment volume decreased slightly, and the arrival volume increased [48] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [49] - **Logic**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply is expected to be stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [49] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [49] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coking coal futures limit - up, and the spot price increased [50] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mines is slow, and the supply is still in short supply [51] - **Demand**: The coking and blast furnace operations are stable, and the demand for coking coal is relatively strong [51] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly [52] - **Logic**: The supply of coking coal is expected to be tightened, and the price is expected to continue to rise [52] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in short - term long positions on dips [52] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: On July 22, the coke futures limit - up, and the second - round price increase of spot coke was implemented [53] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [53] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mines and corporate losses [53] - **Demand**: The demand for coke has increased due to the increase in molten iron output [54] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [55] - **Logic**: The price of coke is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in demand and the decrease in inventory [55] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold long positions and can participate in hedging operations [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On July 22, the price of domestic soybean meal was stable or increased slightly, and the trading volume decreased [56] - **Fundamentals**: The excellent rate of US soybeans has decreased, and the export inspection volume has increased [56][57] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to be supported at the bottom, and the domestic soybean meal is recommended to be cautiously bullish [57][58] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: On July 22, the spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding has decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has decreased [60] - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates, and the upward drive of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [60][61] Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of corn in Northeast China and North China was stable or increased slightly [62] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in Guangzhou Port has increased [62] - **Market Outlook**: The market sentiment is stable, and the corn price is expected to rebound and fluctuate [62]
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:30
Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View In the short term, rubber prices continue to rebound due to macro - sentiment and rainfall in the producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being and pay attention to the improvement of raw material supply after the weather in the main producing areas gets better [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 110, down 144.44%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The price of cup rubber in the international market was 49.30 Thai baht/kg, up 1.44%. The price of raw materials in Hainan also increased to varying degrees [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 795 yuan/ton, down 3.92%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 38.89%; the 5 - 9 spread was 920 yuan/ton, up 7.60% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production was 272,200 tons, up 157.52% from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 200,300 tons, up 3.19%; India's production was 47,700 tons, up 5.07%; China's production was 97,000 tons, up 38,900 tons from the previous month. The weekly starting rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in May was 102.749 million pieces, up 0.74%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, down 2.44%. The total import volume of natural rubber was 463,400 tons, up 2.21% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory was 636,383 tons, up 0.63%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 36,691 tons, down 0.82%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by the rise in coal prices and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, there may still be room for price increases in the future. However, as the delivery month approaches, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 46,000 yuan/ton and 43,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type material (average price) was - 3,105 yuan/ton, down 1013.24%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were stable, while the average price of Topcon components (distributed) and N - type 210mm components (for centralized projects) increased slightly [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The price of the PS2506 contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, up 7.54%. The spreads between different contracts also changed to varying degrees, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 15.56% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 11.10 GM, down 3.48%; the polysilicon production was 23,000 tons, up 0.88%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import volume of polysilicon was 11,000 tons, up 16.59%; the export volume was 22,000 tons, up 5.96%. The silicon wafer production was 58.84 GM, up 1.34%; the import volume was 6,000 tons, down 15.41%; the export volume was 61,000 tons, up 11.37% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, down 9.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 CM, down 11.64%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780 hands [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon opened high and closed higher, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. Driven by coal price increases and the smooth transmission of price increases in the silicon - based photovoltaic industry chain, the price of industrial silicon may continue to rise. However, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure caused by the decline in silicone demand. For the 09 contract with a large open interest, it is recommended to control positions and manage risks [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 22, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 2.11%. The basis of different grades of industrial silicon changed significantly, such as the basis of SI4210 industrial silicon (benchmark) being - 505 yuan/ton, down 62.90% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2509 - 2510 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 21.43%; the 2510 - 2511 spread was 60 yuan/ton, down 25.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread was - 320 yuan/ton, down 52.38%; the 2512 - 2601 spread was 85 yuan/ton, up 70.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, down 12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167,500 tons, down 20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13,500 tons, up 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11,300 tons, up 145.65%. The national industrial silicon starting rate was 51.23%, down 11.37%. The production of silicone DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased, and the industrial silicon export volume was 60,500 tons, up 1.64% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 123,600 tons, down 0.24%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 27,300 tons, up 0.37%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 23,000 tons, down 1.29%. The social inventory was 547,000 tons, down 0.73%; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 250,300 tons, down 0.18%; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 296,700 tons, down 1.19% [5]. Group 4: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 22, the log futures first rose and then fell. In the short term, due to the high - temperature season being the off - season for log demand and the decline in spot prices, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. One can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On July 22, the price of log 2507 was 825 yuan/m³, up 0.61%; the price of log 2509 was 838 yuan/m³, unchanged; the price of log 2511 was 842 yuan/m³, down 0.30%; the price of log 2601 was 853 yuan/m³, down 0.93%. The 9 - 11 spread was - 4 yuan/m³, up 2.5; the 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/m³, up 8. The basis of the 09 contract was - 98 yuan/m³, unchanged. The spot prices of logs in major ports remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million m³, up 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 53, down 8.62% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.29 million m³, up 2.17% from July 11. The inventory in Shandong increased by 2.01%, while the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 0.67% [6]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 62,400 m³, up 6.12% from July 11. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 5%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 25% [6]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The market sentiment was boosted by coal - related information, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash hit the daily limit. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess, and there is pressure on the demand side in the second half of the year. For glass, although the spot market has improved, it is currently in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly due to policy and news, and risk avoidance should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: On July 22, the price of glass in North China was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 1.69%; in East China, it was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; in South China, it was 1,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of glass 2505 was 1,317 yuan/ton, up 6.21%; the price of glass 2509 was 1,173 yuan/ton, up 8.51%. The 05 basis was - 117 yuan/ton, down 95.00% [7]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash in North China was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China, it was 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 1,020 yuan/ton, up 4.08%. The price of soda ash 2505 was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.43%; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1,295 yuan/ton, up 6.05%. The 05 basis was - 40 yuan/ton, down 190.91% [7]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate was 84.10%, up 3.42%; the weekly soda ash production was 733,200 tons, up 3.41%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 157,800 tons, down 0.38%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 91,840 tons, down 2.70% [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 64.939 million heavy boxes, down 3.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.9056 million tons, up 2.26%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory was 246,600 tons, up 3.61%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory was 23.4, up 11.34% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was - 33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completion area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was - 1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:30
数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免费声明 体报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同现点、见解 、并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考.报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价.投资者 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士.版权归广发期货所有.未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对本报告进行任何影式的发布 据此报资。 复制。如引用、刊发. 需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月23日 | | | 周敏波 | 6560400Z | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3370 | 3320 | 50 | 3 | | ...