12月9日至11日，省委常委、常务副省长王晓到延安市、铜川市调研稳增长、重点项目建设、县域 经济、安全生产、保暖保供和省"十五五"规划《纲要》编制等工作。 王晓来到延安市、铜川市有关区县，与市县负责同志、基层干部群众、企业负责人等深入交流，实 地查看高质量项目建设、企业生产经营、县域产业发展、稳就业促增收、问题整改、高层建筑消防安 全、安全生产责任落实、冬季保暖保供等情况，征求"十五五"时期发展意见建议。他强调，要深入学习 贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神和习近平总书记历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示，认真落实党中央、国务 院决策部署和省委、省政府工作要求，下定决战决胜的决心，交好决战决胜的答卷，保持决战决胜的态 势，充分发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加强经济运行监测调度，持续强化能源工业"压舱石"作 用，促进产能充分释放、效益稳步提升，推动非能工业回升向好，促进服务业提质增效，挖掘消费潜 能，提高投资效益，增强重点行业、重点企业、重点产品、重点项目的带动作用，立足县域资源优势， 促进特色产业延链增效、联农带农，拓宽群众就业增收渠道，因地制宜推动县域经济高质量发展，一体 推进巡视、审计、督察等各类问题整改，扎实开展高 ...

中新社北京12月11日电(记者刘文文)中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。多位受访专家分 析，此次会议释放三大信号，明确2026年"稳增长"的工作主线。 一是以提质增效为引领，锚定高质量发展方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。提法与去年"稳中求进、以进促 稳"略有不同。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，政策演进的方向是"提质增效"，意味着未来的操作将从"有没有"的规 模考量，转向"好不好"的效率与精准性考量。 专家认为，明年经济工作的主线已然清晰，即以提质增效为引领、以"双宽松"为引擎和以政策集成为保 障，全力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，为"十五五"开好局奠定坚实基础。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕；增强宏观政策取向一 致性和有效性。 刘英分析，这传递出"双宽松"政策将延续并强化的信号，释放清晰的逆周期与跨周期调节意图，为经济 增长注入确定性。 刘英认为，货币政策适度宽松的关键不在于降准降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined the economic work for 2026, setting a clear direction for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the futures industry [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with China successfully achieving major economic and social development goals despite complex international challenges [2][7]. - The futures industry has expanded significantly during this period, with continuous market growth, a more comprehensive futures and options product system, and improved risk management frameworks [2][7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The conference emphasized stabilizing growth and expectations through a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will support macroeconomic stability and signal positive developments for financial markets, including the futures industry [3][8]. - Key tasks identified include domestic demand-led growth, innovation, reform, and green transformation, aligning closely with the futures industry's role in price discovery and risk management [3][8]. Group 3: Industry Development Strategy - The company aims to enhance its core mission of risk management and support for industrial development by focusing on its strengths in the mining sector and aligning with national priorities such as green and low-carbon industries [4][9]. - The company plans to develop an integrated service system that combines mining characteristics with comprehensive advantages, leveraging AI and technology to address service homogenization issues and enhance collaboration within the industry [4][9]. - The company is committed to compliance and creating value, fostering a positive industry ecosystem to enhance the recognition of the futures industry's value [4][9].

生产总体平稳。前10个月，规模以上轻工业增加值同比增长5.8%。电池、塑料家具制造业增加值继续保持两位数增长，洗衣机、空调产量分别增长 6.4%、3%。 内需潜力不断释放。前10个月，轻工11类商品零售额超7.1万亿元，同比增长9.8%。家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额增长20.1%，自上年9月份以来持 续保持两位数增长。在以旧换新商品中，高能效等级家电继续保持高速增长。 央视网消息（新闻联播）：记者从中国轻工业联合会获悉，前10个月，规模以上轻工企业实现营收19万亿元，同比增长1.9%，实现利润1.14万亿元，同 比增长1.6%。在系列稳增长、扩内需政策支持下，轻工业经济运行态势稳健，表现出较强的发展韧性。 ...

按照惯例，中央经济工作会议将于近期召开。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂 严峻的国内外环境中开好局、起好步，备受各界关注。 日前召开的中共中央政治局会议为明年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，指明结构调整与 动能转换的清晰方向。分析人士认为，作为中国经济政策最权威的风向标，中央经济工作会议料将进一 步强化"稳增长"政策部署，为"十五五"时期高质量发展夯实基础。 财政政策预计更加积极。粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒指出，为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地 产市场，有必要以更大力度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。在此 背景下，明年应会设定较高的赤字率，延续发行超长期特别国债，进一步优化化债方式。 货币政策保持适度宽松。在当前经济下行压力加大、物价持续低位运行的背景下，货币政策需发挥好逆 周期调节作用，预计明年将通过适时降准降息方式，降低实体经济融资成本。同时，科创、消费领域的 工具额度、适用范围有望进一步拓展。 扩大内需持续加力 内需市场的潜力释放成为关键。十三届全国政协常委、经济委员会副主任杨伟民指出，"十五五"时期中 国总需求增量将更多从扩大居民消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to set the tone for China's economic policies in 2026, emphasizing "stability while seeking progress" and focusing on structural adjustments and energy transitions [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Coordination - "Stability" is anticipated to play a central role in the economic work for 2026, with expectations for a series of macroeconomic policies to ensure economic operation within a reasonable range [2] - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with higher deficit rates and the continuation of issuing long-term special bonds to stabilize the economy and employment [2] - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with expectations for timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [2] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - The release of domestic market potential is seen as crucial, with a shift towards stimulating innovation and consumption to create a favorable environment for entrepreneurship [3] - Fiscal support for consumption is expected to expand, potentially covering a wider range of consumer goods and services, with a focus on service consumption [3] - Investment in equipment upgrades is anticipated to increase, with a focus on technology innovation and manufacturing transformation, while addressing issues of overcapacity and mismatched supply and demand [3] Group 3: Accelerating New Momentum Cultivation - China is at a critical stage of transitioning growth drivers, with a need to explore new growth paths amid weakening traditional drivers [4] - The World Intellectual Property Organization's report indicates that China has entered the global top ten in innovation index, laying a solid foundation for technological industrialization [4] - Future policies are expected to strengthen basic research and the transformation of key technologies, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, AI, and advanced manufacturing [4][5]

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年临近尾声，投资者的目光已开始投向2026年。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国股票市场 将面临怎样的宏观环境与产业风向？哪些资产有望成为明年的投资主线？ 外资观点历来是观测市场方向的一个风向标。近期，多家外资机构相继发布了对中国宏观经济与资本市 场的年度展望。其中一个普遍共识是，2026年政策仍将持续发力，以营造稳定向好的宏观环境，但中国 股票市场定价的逻辑将发生变化。 宏观："稳增长"与结构"再平衡" 宏观层面，外资机构普遍预期 ，2026年的宏观政策将以"稳增长"和结构"再平衡"为主。 经济增长目标 预计维持在5%左右，以保障"十五五"实现平稳开局。增长动力上，出口有望继续保持韧性，消费与投 资在政策支持下逐步回稳，房地产对经济的拖累料将继续减轻。 相较于总量增长，通胀指标的变化更值得关注。 市场对明年通胀回升带动名义GDP改善已形成共识， 但对GDP平减指数（反映价格水平变动）转正时点仍有分歧。这主要源于两大不确定性：一是宏观政策 的支持力度 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.43% to 25,324.75 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.68%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down by 0.51% [1][9][10] Sector Performance - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with NetEase and Bilibili each dropping over 1%, Tencent down by 1%, while Meituan rose by over 1% [1][9] - Gold stocks experienced a general increase, with Lingbao Gold rising over 10% [1][4][10] - Solar energy stocks weakened, with GCL-Poly Energy falling over 3% [1][5][10] - Chinese brokerage stocks opened high but closed lower, with China Merchants Securities dropping over 3% [1][6][10] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed today, with Tudatong rising by 34% and Baoji Pharmaceutical increasing by over 125% [1][7][10] - Tudatong, through a merger with TechStar Acquisition Corporation, raised approximately HKD 1.027 billion [7][16] Gold Market Insights - The gold market strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with spot silver surpassing USD 61 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 100%; spot gold exceeded USD 4,210 per ounce [4][10] Solar Industry Analysis - The solar industry is undergoing a phase of "de-involution," with significant improvements expected in Q3 for upstream segments, focusing on supply-side measures and demand-side support from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][13]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the 30-year treasury futures, with the 30-year treasury yield rising over 7 basis points to above 2.25% and the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.8480% [1] - The widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year treasury yields is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of new fund redemption fees, anticipated steady growth policies, and a decrease in monetary easing expectations [1][6] - Institutional profit-taking pressure is significant as the year-end approaches, contributing to the sell-off in the long-end bond market [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influencing the bond market, with expectations for steady growth impacting market sentiment directly [2] - The central government's emphasis on implementing more proactive macro policies indicates a supportive stance for economic growth, despite the lack of specific targets [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption remains a key policy direction, with an emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5] Group 3 - The overall policy framework for the upcoming year is expected to prioritize broad fiscal expansion, with monetary easing complementing fiscal efforts [5] - There is a strong mid-term expectation for economic stabilization, although the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is limited [5][6] - The bond market sentiment remains under pressure, with the 10-year treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.85% and 1.9%, while the 30-year treasury yield has limited upward movement potential [6][7] Group 4 - The year-end selling pressure from banks to realize gains on older bonds is likely to constrain the upward movement of the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak, with expectations that the 30-year treasury futures will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [7] - The potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut may enhance the strength of the short-end bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]

市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 国债期货日报 | 2025-12-09 政治局会议明基调，国债期货涨跌分化 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅 ...